COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-10-11


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-10-11

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1006-1909-0708-1508-2709-24 --09-2908-1006-1904-2109-1809-28 -- --07-2308-1509-26 --07-05 --09-0108-1406-16
Peak daily increment 964 805 5 9 9 1 11 1 914 30 61 5 4 127 21 7 4 3 7
Days since peak 184 114 34 57 45 17 12 62 114 173 23 13 80 57 15 98 40 58 117
Last total 42825 152172 851 10191 892 299 987 9626 669 32929 346 32356 449 324 954 1826 36166 6584 3004 2080 5411 5894 275 2088
Last daily increment 65 247 -1 16 1 0 39 6 2 0 0 0 13 7 21 2 26 17 32 13 53 0 0 0
Last week 456 2749 33 113 38 11 229 72 10 704 0 260 32 24 121 16 164 130 345 62 363 -1 0 10
Previous peak date --04-0604-0604-1506-0504-11 --04-1504-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-2304-2403-2904-0404-2604-1505-0204-1204-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 3095 20 328 5 7 226 15 946 943 14 167 781 153 23 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -892 0 2 2 -2 3 0 -1351 7 0 6 -6 3 -5 0 1

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-10-11

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2110-0207-1708-2109-1009-23 --10-0507-2309-14 --07-2209-2408-0409-1609-1507-2108-0609-0507-1309-0906-2308-0708-2208-2709-0905-1208-15 --09-1008-0908-2004-2909-0905-28 --08-2609-19 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1308-1308-3108-2908-2207-2805-0507-28 -- --07-2710-0209-1508-06 --09-02
Peak daily increment 35 1065 81 785 322 1160 117 1979 2947 155 323 68 1077 98 126 78 138 7 9 1 46 175 66 10 18 112 12 9 36 106 56 37 23 31 4 40 25 1566 9 18 26 92 10 5 137 45 386 8 70 13 5
Days since peak 38 82 9 86 51 31 18 6 80 27 81 17 68 25 26 82 66 36 90 32 110 65 50 45 32 152 57 31 63 52 165 32 136 46 22 144 135 108 151 59 41 43 50 75 159 75 76 9 26 66 39
Last total 898 150488 9666 13318 27834 108334 11844 28544 83781 33305 6321 22471 17780 8837 214768 2664 1569 5758 16579 2113 4530 637 654 15364 7242 1462 507 8984 3562 774 1252 5462 9597 3992 7137 2141 2256 3101 210 3770 337 518 456 16174 911 1661 33276 4999 1098 599 8330 3552 286 2732 16971 422 3355 2187 1465 385
Last daily increment 0 849 5 46 174 0 79 251 139 82 83 140 107 59 398 0 17 0 12 1 0 1 1 178 24 3 0 9 7 1 3 20 17 13 0 10 0 5 1 5 1 0 1 3 4 2 4 2 3 0 6 1 0 8 28 5 4 0 7 -2
Last week 3 3813 106 281 990 4765 591 1352 1904 563 481 1096 764 339 4587 105 122 52 408 44 13 6 9 652 221 64 20 179 108 76 38 66 73 40 79 58 211 88 20 133 60 16 13 36 17 38 89 68 43 27 123 96 38 171 534 29 82 34 84 18
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 -- --04-1504-13 -- -- -- --04-2404-2004-29 -- --04-0705-21 -- --05-02 --04-1404-1404-25 --04-14 --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- --04-22 --04-1205-1804-2904-17 -- --04-29 -- -- -- --04-2204-0604-1004-23
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 144 92 125 2226 72 105 11 44 14 99 10 64 459 137 18 317 10 3573 76 8 24 104 25 12 16
Low between peaks 3 388 20 16 534 2 3 1 12 3 5 4 12 -1 6 52 3 7 15 1 6 9 -17 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-12 to 2020-10-18

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTRO
2020-10-11 42825 152172 851 10191 892 987 9626 32929 32356 449 324 954 36166 6584 3004 2080 5411
2020-10-12 42830 152500 855 10200 900 1023 9628 33030 32470 454 328 970 36190 6584 3069 2088 5470
2020-10-13 42890 152900 859 10220 907 1060 9638 33130 32530 458 332 992 36210 6609 3118 2096 5548
2020-10-14 42960 153300 863 10230 917 1098 9649 33230 32580 463 338 1017 36220 6637 3173 2104 5628
2020-10-15 43020 153600 867 10240 922 1136 9661 33320 32640 468 340 1041 36240 6648 3229 2112 5674
2020-10-16 43090 154000 871 10250 929 1176 9668 33420 32690 473 345 1061 36260 6658 3277 2120 5733
2020-10-17 43150 154300 875 10260 932 1217 9669 33510 32750 478 348 1083 36280 6681 3323 2127 5793
2020-10-18 43210 154700 878 10270 934 1260 9669 33610 32800 483 353 1103 36300 6693 3360 2135 5831

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-12 to 2020-10-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-10-11 150488 9666 13318 27834 108334 11844 28544 83781 33305 6321 22471 17780 8837 214768 2664 1569 5758 16579 2113 15364 7242 1462 507 8984 3562 774 1252 5462 9597 3992 7137 2141 2256 3101 210 3770 337 16174 1661 33276 4999 1098 599 8330 3552 286 2732 16971 422 3355 2187 1465
2020-10-12 151100 9683 13380 28010 108700 11940 28750 84100 33410 6322 22470 17780 8893 215200 2664 1585 5783 16650 2113 15560 7280 1466 510 8990 3562 790 1259 5477 9611 3998 7148 2143 2288 3105 211 3794 351 16180 1664 33290 5030 1104 599 8336 3568 295 2765 17060 423 3362 2199 1465
2020-10-13 151800 9701 13410 28170 109000 12040 28950 84500 33510 6361 22610 17880 8947 216000 2684 1601 5787 16740 2119 15700 7320 1481 513 9020 3588 806 1264 5483 9626 4003 7159 2148 2321 3126 213 3830 358 16190 1670 33290 5051 1115 607 8350 3585 299 2798 17150 428 3370 2212 1476
2020-10-14 152400 9717 13430 28330 109400 12140 29150 84860 33610 6418 22760 18000 9001 216800 2708 1617 5803 16820 2121 15920 7356 1490 516 9058 3605 822 1268 5491 9640 4008 7170 2161 2356 3146 214 3852 372 16200 1676 33300 5076 1124 610 8376 3610 309 2831 17270 434 3378 2220 1487
2020-10-15 153200 9734 13520 28490 109800 12240 29350 85170 33700 6517 22890 18130 9053 217700 2739 1633 5816 16900 2125 16130 7400 1499 519 9084 3618 838 1280 5497 9655 4013 7180 2168 2391 3163 217 3882 381 16210 1684 33310 5087 1132 617 8392 3623 324 2865 17380 437 3386 2223 1489
2020-10-16 153700 9751 13570 28650 110200 12340 29550 85520 33800 6582 23000 18230 9106 218500 2745 1649 5825 16960 2126 16300 7458 1515 522 9115 3633 854 1287 5521 9669 4018 7191 2179 2426 3171 224 3908 385 16210 1692 33320 5112 1138 619 8412 3636 330 2898 17480 439 3394 2233 1490
2020-10-17 154100 9767 13620 28810 110700 12430 29750 85650 33890 6659 23150 18330 9159 219100 2753 1666 5836 17030 2130 16390 7502 1519 525 9144 3651 871 1293 5521 9684 4023 7201 2190 2461 3183 226 3924 395 16220 1695 33330 5114 1143 622 8437 3658 340 2932 17540 441 3403 2233 1500
2020-10-18 154700 9784 13680 28970 111100 12530 29950 85790 33990 6737 23270 18390 9213 219400 2753 1682 5836 17040 2133 16470 7518 1522 528 9154 3656 887 1296 5541 9698 4029 7211 2197 2497 3186 227 3929 399 16220 1697 33340 5116 1145 622 8444 3659 340 2967 17550 445 3411 2233 1507

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-12 to 2020-10-18

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTRO
2020-10-11 42825 152172 851 10191 892 987 9626 32929 32356 449 324 954 36166 6584 3004 2080 5411
2020-10-12 42880 152600 855 10210 900 1029 9643 33000 32410 455 327 971 36190 6591 3051 2089 5460
2020-10-13 42940 153000 860 10220 906 1066 9654 33110 32470 460 330 989 36210 6612 3101 2098 5516
2020-10-14 43010 153400 864 10240 915 1104 9666 33210 32530 464 335 1009 36230 6640 3154 2106 5576
2020-10-15 43070 153800 869 10250 921 1143 9672 33320 32590 469 337 1028 36260 6653 3206 2115 5619
2020-10-16 43140 154200 873 10260 928 1182 9687 33420 32640 473 342 1046 36280 6664 3254 2124 5663
2020-10-17 43190 154500 877 10280 933 1217 9696 33530 32700 478 344 1064 36300 6683 3305 2132 5711
2020-10-18 43250 154900 881 10290 938 1252 9699 33630 32750 482 349 1081 36320 6692 3355 2141 5755

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-12 to 2020-10-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-10-11 150488 9666 13318 27834 108334 11844 28544 83781 33305 6321 22471 17780 8837 214768 2664 1569 5758 16579 2113 15364 7242 1462 507 8984 3562 774 1252 5462 9597 3992 7137 2141 2256 3101 210 3770 337 16174 1661 33276 4999 1098 599 8330 3552 286 2732 16971 422 3355 2187 1465
2020-10-12 150800 9679 13370 27980 108900 11940 28750 84830 33390 6388 22610 17890 8892 215100 2669 1588 5761 16590 2117 15440 7267 1473 510 8998 3573 783 1257 5471 9611 3998 7146 2146 2279 3102 213 3774 345 16180 1662 33290 4997 1101 601 8345 3560 291 2755 17050 426 3364 2194 1473
2020-10-13 151500 9699 13410 28130 109600 12050 28920 85330 33480 6450 22770 17980 8945 215700 2681 1607 5768 16690 2124 15530 7299 1486 514 9025 3599 793 1263 5480 9625 4003 7157 2151 2305 3122 216 3809 353 16180 1669 33300 5015 1111 608 8360 3576 296 2785 17140 431 3376 2205 1490
2020-10-14 152200 9716 13440 28290 110400 12160 29090 85670 33570 6513 22940 18080 8999 216300 2696 1626 5780 16770 2129 15680 7329 1495 519 9059 3616 803 1268 5489 9638 4007 7168 2164 2332 3141 217 3833 365 16190 1675 33310 5038 1119 611 8382 3597 302 2813 17250 435 3388 2212 1507
2020-10-15 152900 9733 13510 28390 111200 12260 29250 86010 33660 6582 23100 18190 9052 216900 2715 1646 5791 16850 2134 15820 7362 1505 522 9086 3629 817 1277 5497 9652 4011 7178 2171 2358 3156 220 3864 374 16190 1683 33320 5049 1126 617 8398 3611 309 2845 17360 439 3400 2214 1517
2020-10-16 153400 9754 13560 28600 112000 12360 29400 86290 33750 6647 23250 18270 9106 217500 2721 1666 5805 16920 2138 15930 7404 1518 524 9114 3643 828 1284 5514 9665 4016 7189 2182 2401 3167 224 3896 381 16200 1690 33330 5080 1133 619 8415 3625 315 2875 17450 442 3412 2222 1526
2020-10-17 154000 9777 13610 28790 112800 12450 29530 86600 33850 6715 23400 18340 9160 217900 2727 1686 5816 16990 2142 15990 7439 1524 527 9137 3659 836 1291 5520 9679 4020 7200 2193 2431 3181 226 3920 392 16200 1696 33340 5092 1140 623 8432 3645 322 2905 17520 445 3424 2223 1540
2020-10-18 154600 9797 13670 28950 113600 12540 29690 86790 33940 6783 23540 18400 9215 218100 2731 1706 5825 17010 2148 16040 7459 1529 529 9153 3662 844 1296 5537 9693 4025 7210 2200 2454 3186 227 3933 400 16200 1698 33350 5098 1143 625 8444 3655 326 2935 17550 448 3437 2224 1546

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths