COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-12-06


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-12-06

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)11-25 -- --11-03 -- --11-05 --10-2811-0404-2111-17 -- -- --11-1808-1511-03 -- -- --11-18 -- --11-27 --
Peak daily increment 455 204 211 3 921 30 591 5 127 80 38 6
Days since peak 11 33 31 39 32 229 19 18 113 33 18 9
Last total 61245 287868 3840 17320 4797 1102 8902 18989 885 46252 415 54804 3003 2174 5868 2099 60078 9687 20089 4963 12320 7067 1744 996 354 5349
Last daily increment 231 2102 83 66 68 20 87 150 7 0 0 174 101 72 162 0 564 25 228 87 134 0 44 15 0 25
Last week 2797 21029 656 675 762 157 607 2295 48 1183 16 2421 597 388 1045 46 4502 311 2939 458 989 386 309 157 22 534
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-15 --04-11 --04-1604-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-2304-2403-2904-0404-2604-1405-0204-12 -- --04-0704-04
Previous peak daily increment 964 3076 20 328 7 221 15 946 943 14 167 781 153 23 29 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks 8 -106 0 -1351 7 0 6 -6 -5 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-12-06

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2110-0207-1708-2309-12 --11-1510-0507-2309-14 --07-22 -- --11-1809-1511-04 -- --07-1309-0910-3008-0711-0310-21 --11-1711-06 -- -- --11-1608-2004-2912-0109-09 -- --08-2612-01 --11-0505-2005-2906-25 -- --11-17 -- -- -- --07-28 -- --07-27 --09-1512-02 --11-0911-23
Peak daily increment 35 1065 78 785 318 1159 469 1724 2947 159 323 26 124 23 9 1 8 175 356 6 13 232 160 106 56 10 38 31 12 15 40 25 1566 60 45 382 72 37 11 6
Days since peak 94 138 65 142 105 85 21 62 136 83 137 18 82 32 146 88 37 121 33 46 19 30 20 108 221 5 88 102 5 31 200 191 164 19 131 132 82 4 27 13
Last total 908 176941 12688 15628 37808 140573 17740 50310 109717 36231 8554 42675 22206 14900 282299 3889 2660 6950 19928 3356 5145 697 793 19177 9515 260 2717 1035 14116 5944 1618 2072 6584 10996 4803 227 10211 3984 3980 3961 736 5543 1013 1204 560 17321 1749 2315 34789 6959 1896 1033 11255 4566 1110 4858 23137 708 4200 2922 3952 838 257
Last daily increment 0 313 81 36 175 391 151 294 261 36 28 447 139 195 1113 12 40 25 58 -1 0 2 11 93 10 1 35 3 100 34 6 10 36 51 24 0 0 64 7 12 2 27 6 11 5 15 11 14 51 13 22 6 64 49 19 37 82 0 3 0 18 9 0
Last week 0 3821 541 218 1042 2952 795 2064 3777 308 162 3184 671 1154 14254 311 158 311 755 319 127 17 21 580 318 18 291 106 1131 488 149 164 164 256 204 33 747 391 401 154 55 282 86 189 38 328 181 171 338 530 153 121 920 185 164 334 1241 49 138 151 458 103 42
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 -- --04-2004-1309-16 --07-2108-0704-2404-2004-2906-23 --08-22 --05-2209-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-25 -- --04-1405-2805-05 --09-19 -- -- -- --04-2205-1308-1805-1804-2904-16 --05-0504-29 -- -- --07-3104-2204-0604-0704-2309-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 144 92 124 2225 99 78 137 72 105 11 46 66 14 19 112 99 10 64 459 137 25 18 5 317 9 18 3573 76 7 137 24 4 104 25 13 16 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 9 6 3 1 -3 25 3 15 10 -1 6 2 52 6 6 9 -17 0 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-07 to 2020-12-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-12-06 61245 287868 3840 17320 4797 1102 8902 18989 885 46252 54804 3003 2174 5868 2099 60078 9687 20089 4963 12320 7067 1744 996 354 5349
2020-12-07 61510 290700 3933 17430 4917 1127 9011 19010 892 46770 55570 3099 2266 6029 2104 60570 9760 20360 5082 12530 7067 1789 1107 355 5486
2020-12-08 62090 295000 4026 17550 5041 1152 9120 19490 899 47150 56370 3194 2347 6207 2109 61340 9820 20820 5199 12750 7126 1844 1171 356 5596
2020-12-09 62710 298500 4119 17660 5161 1176 9227 19930 906 47430 56600 3290 2415 6383 2114 62020 9880 21440 5320 12910 7213 1897 1236 357 5691
2020-12-10 63120 301900 4212 17770 5285 1200 9335 20320 913 47670 56860 3386 2478 6566 2119 62930 9940 22020 5441 13090 7239 1946 1293 358 5810
2020-12-11 63570 305400 4307 17880 5410 1225 9444 20690 920 47870 57570 3484 2551 6783 2123 63640 9990 22530 5565 13270 7255 1989 1370 359 5904
2020-12-12 63940 307800 4403 17990 5537 1250 9554 20940 927 47870 57670 3583 2628 7001 2128 64300 10030 23080 5692 13420 7255 2034 1436 359 5932
2020-12-13 64170 309700 4500 18110 5665 1275 9664 21070 934 47870 57820 3684 2708 7202 2132 64810 10050 23360 5822 13520 7255 2077 1436 360 5956

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-07 to 2020-12-13

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-12-06 176941 12688 15628 37808 140573 17740 50310 109717 36231 8554 42675 22206 14900 282299 3889 2660 6950 19928 3356 5145 793 19177 9515 2717 1035 14116 5944 1618 2072 6584 10996 4803 227 10211 3984 3980 3961 736 5543 1013 1204 560 17321 1749 2315 34789 6959 1896 1033 11255 4566 1110 4858 23137 708 4200 2922 3952 838 257
2020-12-07 177000 12770 15680 37980 141000 17880 50630 109900 36290 8587 43200 22300 15100 284300 3889 2683 6950 20040 3396 5164 794 19190 9515 2783 1035 14120 5944 1632 2072 6590 11030 4826 230 10210 4004 3997 3961 752 5543 1020 1204 565 17320 1775 2315 34830 6959 1915 1036 11410 4566 1114 4929 23140 710 4218 2930 3952 838 261
2020-12-08 177600 12850 15700 38150 141500 18020 50940 110600 36340 8621 43720 22390 15300 286900 3941 2704 6997 20180 3414 5183 796 19280 9558 2844 1062 14270 6033 1660 2102 6619 11060 4849 233 10390 4033 4017 3997 767 5574 1048 1247 570 17360 1800 2340 34870 7064 1933 1040 11550 4590 1117 4998 23340 721 4235 2948 4066 858 271
2020-12-09 178300 12920 15710 38320 141900 18150 51240 111400 36400 8653 44250 22470 15490 289600 4012 2725 7043 20300 3440 5200 798 19370 9621 2915 1088 14510 6078 1708 2110 6653 11090 4872 235 10470 4116 4041 4013 783 5646 1057 1279 575 17390 1824 2372 34900 7187 1958 1044 11720 4621 1160 5066 23550 731 4253 2970 4147 876 273
2020-12-10 179000 13000 15800 38490 142400 18290 51550 111900 36450 8686 44780 22560 15690 291700 4066 2745 7102 20410 3476 5217 801 19440 9682 2980 1105 14700 6096 1721 2144 6674 11120 4895 237 10600 4189 4065 4036 789 5676 1067 1311 579 17420 1848 2405 34930 7242 1970 1047 11850 4637 1187 5133 23770 737 4270 2995 4213 887 293
2020-12-11 179600 13070 15840 38650 142900 18420 51850 112400 36510 8719 45310 22640 15890 293200 4098 2765 7146 20500 3485 5234 803 19540 9728 3042 1119 14820 6112 1741 2177 6701 11150 4918 239 10680 4265 4089 4059 791 5726 1077 1331 584 17440 1872 2419 34960 7329 1991 1051 11980 4664 1214 5201 23940 744 4287 3032 4267 895 293
2020-12-12 180200 13150 15870 38820 143300 18560 52160 113100 36560 8752 45850 22720 16090 294900 4126 2785 7186 20600 3485 5252 805 19620 9786 3083 1119 15040 6143 1750 2197 6701 11180 4942 241 10850 4334 4114 4085 802 5764 1093 1339 588 17460 1896 2449 35000 7388 2003 1054 12090 4684 1253 5269 24120 754 4305 3034 4344 917 293
2020-12-13 180400 13220 15910 38990 143800 18700 52460 113300 36610 8785 46390 22810 16300 295900 4133 2805 7203 20660 3506 5269 808 19690 9792 3104 1121 15110 6189 1753 2204 6726 11210 4965 244 10850 4396 4139 4099 806 5789 1098 1343 592 17480 1920 2460 35030 7406 2024 1058 12160 4714 1271 5339 24210 756 4322 3035 4358 926 293

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-07 to 2020-12-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-12-06 61245 287868 3840 17320 4797 1102 8902 18989 885 46252 54804 3003 2174 5868 2099 60078 9687 20089 4963 12320 7067 1744 996 354 5349
2020-12-07 61530 290900 3936 17410 4964 1138 8993 19330 893 46500 55150 3099 2256 6040 2104 60710 9720 20380 5043 12460 7080 1796 1031 356 5488
2020-12-08 62040 295100 4058 17530 5117 1165 9101 19800 900 46830 55800 3216 2331 6219 2109 61450 9780 20860 5119 12640 7141 1848 1062 358 5605
2020-12-09 62580 298800 4179 17630 5270 1182 9208 20250 908 47100 56140 3329 2399 6401 2114 62150 9840 21420 5195 12780 7218 1902 1095 363 5707
2020-12-10 63010 302500 4295 17740 5425 1222 9316 20670 915 47340 56500 3443 2461 6590 2118 62950 9900 21980 5273 12950 7259 1956 1125 366 5829
2020-12-11 63460 306400 4418 17840 5570 1257 9424 21040 923 47590 57140 3564 2536 6777 2123 63690 9960 22500 5352 13100 7302 2004 1156 367 5938
2020-12-12 63900 309400 4545 17940 5696 1277 9531 21260 930 47740 57500 3707 2612 6978 2128 64420 10010 23060 5432 13240 7318 2057 1190 369 5991
2020-12-13 64260 312400 4682 18020 5825 1295 9638 21420 937 47880 57850 3839 2693 7175 2133 65050 10040 23510 5515 13370 7338 2110 1213 371 6038

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-07 to 2020-12-13

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-12-06 176941 12688 15628 37808 140573 17740 50310 109717 36231 8554 42675 22206 14900 282299 3889 2660 6950 19928 3356 5145 793 19177 9515 2717 1035 14116 5944 1618 2072 6584 10996 4803 227 10211 3984 3980 3961 736 5543 1013 1204 560 17321 1749 2315 34789 6959 1896 1033 11255 4566 1110 4858 23137 708 4200 2922 3952 838 257
2020-12-07 177300 12770 15670 37980 141000 17870 50600 110000 36280 8584 43150 22320 15090 283800 3912 2689 6978 20000 3382 5157 797 19280 9545 2756 1044 14230 5980 1649 2088 6606 11040 4828 229 10300 4012 4022 3968 741 5571 1021 1225 563 17330 1775 2331 34840 6998 1911 1049 11360 4598 1124 4905 23230 712 4216 2960 3971 850 261
2020-12-08 177900 12850 15700 38140 141500 18000 50870 110800 36320 8614 43650 22400 15290 286100 3952 2709 7018 20140 3438 5174 799 19370 9587 2799 1066 14380 6107 1675 2115 6629 11070 4857 234 10430 4041 4101 4002 755 5603 1041 1257 567 17360 1803 2355 34880 7083 1929 1068 11500 4619 1139 4951 23420 721 4233 2983 4078 867 272
2020-12-09 178600 12940 15720 38310 141900 18130 51130 111500 36350 8644 44160 22490 15480 288400 4000 2728 7056 20260 3494 5192 801 19460 9638 2850 1087 14590 6183 1714 2132 6655 11100 4886 237 10520 4117 4144 4017 769 5665 1051 1285 572 17380 1830 2384 34910 7193 1960 1085 11650 4644 1172 4998 23630 730 4250 3005 4152 883 276
2020-12-10 179200 13020 15780 38480 142400 18270 51390 112100 36390 8674 44670 22570 15680 290300 4042 2748 7103 20370 3566 5209 803 19530 9691 2900 1103 14780 6239 1732 2160 6676 11130 4915 240 10630 4191 4191 4039 777 5697 1062 1314 576 17400 1858 2417 34950 7248 1977 1101 11790 4661 1200 5050 23850 736 4267 3029 4214 895 293
2020-12-11 179700 13100 15810 38640 142900 18400 51660 112500 36420 8704 45190 22660 15880 291600 4070 2767 7138 20480 3610 5227 805 19620 9726 2942 1116 14900 6279 1753 2189 6699 11160 4944 243 10720 4269 4235 4063 783 5744 1073 1335 579 17410 1886 2434 34990 7308 2002 1120 11910 4684 1227 5094 24010 744 4284 3049 4275 905 295
2020-12-12 180300 13180 15850 38810 143300 18530 51910 113300 36460 8735 45720 22740 16080 292800 4091 2787 7166 20560 3643 5244 807 19690 9766 2978 1121 15080 6347 1764 2210 6710 11190 4973 246 10820 4328 4282 4080 799 5771 1087 1349 583 17430 1915 2455 35020 7334 2016 1132 12030 4700 1261 5138 24160 752 4301 3057 4329 918 297
2020-12-13 180600 13250 15880 38990 143800 18680 52150 113500 36490 8765 46240 22810 16280 293600 4106 2807 7187 20620 3694 5262 809 19740 9786 3012 1128 15170 6394 1775 2226 6728 11220 5002 249 10880 4386 4318 4097 805 5796 1096 1363 586 17450 1944 2469 35060 7346 2038 1146 12150 4713 1284 5182 24230 758 4318 3062 4345 928 300

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths