COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-12-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-12-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)11-25 --12-0211-1212-08 --11-04 --10-2811-0404-2111-1212-03 -- --12-0312-0411-0411-27 --11-3012-0212-09 --12-02 --
Peak daily increment 452 103 207 153 207 3 927 30 621 103 5 726 79 489 163 54 54 7
Days since peak 18 11 31 5 39 46 39 236 31 10 10 9 39 16 13 11 4 11
Last total 64170 310759 4473 17951 5688 1356 9535 22106 941 47624 453 57554 3625 2640 6965 2124 64520 10048 22864 5559 13385 7514 2063 1175 387 5985
Last daily increment 144 2290 58 159 62 25 85 206 6 0 0 344 85 78 181 1 484 29 188 98 121 0 22 27 0 9
Last week 2736 20107 576 565 678 225 633 2672 47 978 29 2384 533 407 981 25 3914 344 2683 518 938 447 267 157 28 490
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-15 --04-11 --04-1604-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-2304-2403-2904-0404-2504-1405-0304-12 -- --04-0704-04
Previous peak daily increment 964 3076 20 328 7 221 15 946 943 14 167 781 153 23 29 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks 8 0 -106 0 -1351 7 0 6 -6 6 10 -5 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-12-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2110-0207-1708-2309-12 --11-1710-0507-2309-14 --07-22 -- --09-1609-1511-05 --12-0907-1309-0910-3008-0711-0310-21 -- --11-0608-15 --12-0311-1608-2004-2912-0109-09 -- -- --11-23 -- --05-2005-2906-2512-09 --11-17 --12-02 -- --07-2812-03 --07-27 --09-1512-02 -- --11-23
Peak daily increment 35 1065 78 785 318 1159 474 1724 2947 159 323 99 124 23 178 9 1 8 175 354 6 249 12 23 144 106 56 6 38 11 40 25 1566 34 57 27 45 23 455 72 23 6
Days since peak 101 145 72 149 112 92 26 69 143 90 144 88 89 38 4 153 95 44 128 40 53 37 120 10 27 115 228 12 95 20 207 198 171 4 26 11 138 10 139 89 11 20
Last total 908 181402 13451 15886 39053 143355 18819 52196 113953 36544 8733 46404 23276 16417 299168 4102 2945 7357 21040 3958 5362 715 816 19866 9779 272 3209 1175 15339 6495 1838 2207 6818 11341 5086 257 11079 4444 4293 4199 818 5823 1152 1373 603 17751 1957 2539 35375 7492 2064 1155 12490 4739 1259 5365 24400 782 4411 2876 4339 968 321
Last daily increment 0 279 84 40 187 336 166 247 249 0 3 481 170 218 1389 0 34 35 82 87 0 2 1 81 2 3 1 6 108 37 1 15 51 42 31 0 0 85 7 19 2 27 0 8 3 19 44 19 109 15 22 5 119 54 16 61 92 10 2 0 15 2 0
Last week 0 4085 655 223 1058 2397 952 1602 3879 270 161 3282 1027 1314 15415 210 232 407 1025 600 138 14 23 584 221 12 486 120 1125 509 190 125 211 314 260 30 770 439 308 238 76 263 130 141 37 415 201 220 523 470 153 110 1171 160 149 442 1164 69 203 -62 366 127 41
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 -- --04-2004-13 -- --07-2208-0604-2404-2004-2906-23 --08-22 --05-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-25 -- --04-1705-2804-3008-2609-19 -- -- -- --04-2205-1308-1805-1804-2904-17 --05-0504-29 -- -- --07-3104-2204-0604-07 --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 144 92 124 2226 78 147 72 105 11 46 66 15 19 112 99 10 64 459 136 25 17 31 5 317 9 18 3573 76 8 167 24 4 104 25 13 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 6 2 3 1 -3 25 15 5 4 10 -1 6 2 52 3 6 1 6 9 -17 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-14 to 2020-12-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-12-13 64170 310759 4473 17951 5688 1356 9535 22106 941 47624 453 57554 3625 2640 6965 2124 64520 10048 22864 5559 13385 7514 2063 1175 387 5985
2020-12-14 64470 314100 4573 18050 5908 1360 9630 22210 949 48090 457 58010 3719 2735 7154 2129 65170 10080 23200 5654 13540 7514 2117 1200 388 6130
2020-12-15 65040 318000 4672 18140 6059 1398 9730 22730 956 48320 460 58770 3812 2809 7344 2133 65830 10150 23610 5748 13740 7641 2177 1224 391 6225
2020-12-16 65580 321300 4770 18230 6188 1427 9820 23170 963 48610 463 58980 3904 2887 7537 2138 66480 10210 24180 5842 13890 7748 2218 1248 394 6324
2020-12-17 66020 324800 4867 18320 6315 1475 9910 23620 970 48880 466 59230 3997 2953 7733 2142 67130 10270 24670 5935 14030 7792 2265 1272 403 6433
2020-12-18 66420 328600 4965 18410 6464 1509 10010 24160 976 49120 469 59850 4090 3022 7934 2146 67780 10320 25180 6030 14180 7903 2317 1297 409 6526
2020-12-19 66860 331000 5064 18510 6522 1540 10100 24460 983 49120 472 59850 4185 3101 8141 2150 68430 10370 25670 6126 14320 7903 2359 1321 409 6560
2020-12-20 67020 333100 5164 18600 6584 1561 10190 24600 990 49120 475 60130 4280 3185 8354 2154 69090 10390 25870 6224 14440 7903 2388 1346 409 6575

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-14 to 2020-12-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-12-13 181402 13451 15886 39053 143355 18819 52196 113953 36544 8733 46404 23276 16417 299168 4102 2945 7357 21040 3958 5362 816 19866 9779 3209 1175 15339 6495 1838 2207 6818 11341 5086 257 11079 4444 4293 4199 818 5823 1152 1373 603 17751 1957 2539 35375 7492 2064 1155 12490 4739 1259 5365 24400 782 4411 4339 968 321
2020-12-14 181500 13540 15940 39230 143700 18940 52430 114300 36630 8765 46920 23430 16630 299200 4104 2960 7357 21110 4060 5388 819 19930 9820 3215 1175 15360 6496 1848 2219 6818 11380 5086 257 11130 4473 4295 4199 821 5864 1152 1395 603 17750 1958 2539 35490 7521 2064 1171 12650 4739 1270 5365 24400 782 4411 4354 990 329
2020-12-15 182300 13630 15960 39390 144100 19050 52650 115000 36680 8794 47410 23570 16830 300600 4152 2976 7374 21310 4129 5414 822 20020 9850 3230 1198 15530 6622 1895 2242 6856 11420 5109 269 11330 4506 4435 4249 839 5904 1162 1416 605 17830 1968 2577 35580 7613 2078 1186 12810 4753 1270 5448 24590 796 4458 4452 1010 335
2020-12-16 183100 13720 15970 39560 144400 19170 52870 115800 36740 8822 47900 23710 17040 302500 4203 2992 7433 21480 4216 5436 825 20110 9900 3233 1225 15760 6715 1936 2256 6888 11460 5140 275 11410 4599 4474 4273 850 5944 1195 1437 609 17920 2014 2606 35670 7714 2106 1201 12980 4780 1307 5511 24830 808 4481 4536 1031 341
2020-12-17 183800 13800 16050 39720 144800 19300 53090 116400 36790 8849 48360 23850 17250 303600 4252 3008 7470 21660 4317 5459 827 20210 9950 3239 1249 15970 6792 1956 2288 6912 11490 5164 275 11570 4677 4536 4307 859 5983 1217 1457 618 17980 2044 2648 35750 7798 2134 1216 13140 4794 1336 5580 25030 820 4524 4605 1051 347
2020-12-18 184400 13890 16070 39890 145200 19420 53320 116900 36840 8876 48830 23990 17450 305500 4290 3023 7503 21820 4382 5482 830 20320 10000 3244 1261 16150 6852 1992 2310 6943 11530 5178 278 11640 4779 4550 4338 874 6023 1235 1478 622 18010 2080 2679 35830 7905 2157 1232 13310 4831 1369 5650 25220 826 4545 4654 1071 353
2020-12-19 185000 13980 16130 40050 145500 19520 53540 117700 36900 8903 49290 24130 17670 306600 4308 3038 7539 21960 4408 5505 833 20390 10040 3250 1275 16320 6929 2005 2332 6943 11560 5198 284 11840 4854 4590 4382 883 6063 1254 1499 631 18070 2105 2717 35910 7955 2184 1247 13480 4846 1403 5702 25390 835 4578 4707 1092 359
2020-12-20 185200 14060 16160 40220 145900 19650 53760 117900 36950 8930 49750 24260 17880 307900 4308 3054 7563 21980 4461 5528 836 20460 10050 3255 1282 16410 6964 2005 2343 6982 11600 5224 284 11840 4934 4597 4398 885 6103 1255 1520 635 18080 2135 2731 35980 7968 2204 1263 13650 4887 1417 5747 25470 841 4578 4722 1113 365

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-14 to 2020-12-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-12-13 64170 310759 4473 17951 5688 1356 9535 22106 941 47624 453 57554 3625 2640 6965 2124 64520 10048 22864 5559 13385 7514 2063 1175 387 5985
2020-12-14 64440 313600 4562 18040 5847 1394 9630 22510 948 47850 458 57970 3703 2715 7123 2127 65080 10070 23060 5648 13510 7535 2105 1200 390 6105
2020-12-15 64940 317400 4661 18120 5989 1432 9720 23070 956 48060 460 58540 3797 2790 7293 2132 65740 10130 23460 5732 13680 7627 2160 1225 393 6206
2020-12-16 65430 320700 4755 18210 6123 1463 9810 23540 964 48310 465 58840 3887 2865 7476 2137 66350 10190 23940 5815 13830 7713 2208 1251 396 6308
2020-12-17 65870 324200 4854 18290 6257 1518 9900 24050 972 48550 469 59150 3977 2928 7669 2141 67090 10250 24380 5899 13970 7762 2259 1276 405 6417
2020-12-18 66310 328100 4958 18340 6403 1553 9990 24620 979 48800 473 59680 4076 3003 7884 2146 67820 10300 24870 5984 14120 7846 2312 1302 409 6519
2020-12-19 66750 331100 5065 18420 6522 1577 10080 24930 987 48940 475 59950 4177 3092 8109 2150 68490 10360 25350 6071 14260 7869 2364 1329 411 6580
2020-12-20 67090 333800 5166 18500 6635 1596 10170 25150 995 49050 477 60260 4280 3185 8331 2155 69150 10380 25710 6160 14400 7892 2415 1356 412 6639

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-14 to 2020-12-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-12-13 181402 13451 15886 39053 143355 18819 52196 113953 36544 8733 46404 23276 16417 299168 4102 2945 7357 21040 3958 5362 816 19866 9779 3209 1175 15339 6495 1838 2207 6818 11341 5086 257 11079 4444 4293 4199 818 5823 1152 1373 603 17751 1957 2539 35375 7492 2064 1155 12490 4739 1259 5365 24400 782 4411 4339 968 321
2020-12-14 181800 13560 15920 39230 143700 18950 52400 114300 36580 8752 46920 23430 16630 300500 4113 2979 7401 21150 4020 5378 819 19970 9810 3284 1191 15450 6532 1867 2223 6847 11380 5119 259 11170 4477 4315 4214 826 5856 1163 1393 606 17770 1983 2559 35460 7540 2085 1167 12660 4765 1271 5431 24460 789 4428 4350 977 335
2020-12-15 182500 13650 15950 39390 144100 19070 52590 115100 36610 8780 47450 23560 16840 302600 4151 3008 7446 21330 4083 5402 822 20060 9840 3368 1212 15620 6657 1908 2246 6884 11420 5155 267 11310 4505 4409 4263 843 5895 1178 1417 608 17810 2000 2594 35520 7630 2101 1188 12830 4781 1280 5501 24640 801 4459 4443 1002 341
2020-12-16 183200 13750 15970 39550 144500 19200 52760 115800 36660 8807 47980 23690 17060 305000 4191 3037 7513 21510 4186 5426 825 20150 9890 3460 1237 15840 6749 1946 2263 6915 11460 5192 272 11410 4591 4451 4286 853 5938 1202 1442 611 17850 2036 2624 35580 7732 2127 1207 13010 4806 1308 5561 24870 811 4480 4528 1028 352
2020-12-17 183900 13840 16030 39710 144800 19340 52930 116400 36700 8834 48510 23820 17270 306800 4231 3066 7571 21690 4273 5450 827 20250 9940 3556 1260 16040 6830 1971 2290 6944 11500 5228 274 11540 4671 4508 4319 862 5979 1221 1467 621 17890 2065 2665 35640 7804 2154 1225 13190 4824 1334 5626 25070 821 4510 4597 1048 360
2020-12-18 184400 13940 16050 39870 145200 19470 53100 117000 36730 8861 49050 23950 17490 309200 4264 3095 7623 21850 4340 5474 830 20360 9990 3654 1274 16200 6893 2004 2314 6973 11530 5263 277 11640 4766 4541 4348 875 6021 1235 1492 625 17900 2096 2693 35700 7916 2177 1244 13370 4854 1360 5688 25240 828 4532 4653 1062 371
2020-12-19 185000 14030 16090 40040 145600 19580 53250 117700 36770 8889 49590 24080 17710 310500 4289 3125 7665 21960 4397 5499 832 20430 10040 3764 1286 16390 6961 2023 2336 6989 11570 5296 281 11780 4838 4587 4381 884 6059 1255 1517 632 17920 2123 2724 35760 7963 2197 1266 13550 4870 1388 5735 25400 837 4553 4712 1085 374
2020-12-20 185400 14120 16130 40200 146000 19730 53410 118000 36800 8916 50150 24210 17940 311300 4307 3155 7702 22020 4456 5523 835 20510 10060 3882 1295 16500 6997 2036 2353 7014 11610 5331 283 11860 4907 4617 4395 887 6098 1268 1543 636 17920 2147 2742 35820 7980 2217 1284 13740 4899 1408 5780 25460 843 4567 4724 1097 378

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths