COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-01-03


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-01-03

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)11-2412-0212-1711-0312-03 --11-04 -- --11-0412-2111-1611-2912-1712-1112-0112-0311-0411-2712-1212-0312-1512-04 --12-0212-03
Peak daily increment 458 3541 108 202 145 207 927 6 608 101 74 164 5 736 79 492 82 166 64 53 5 97
Days since peak 40 32 17 61 31 60 60 13 48 35 17 23 33 31 60 37 22 31 19 30 32 31
Last total 75024 375489 6324 19701 7678 2382 11960 34791 1374 50837 561 64671 4957 4072 9884 2259 75332 11612 29119 7118 15979 8727 2803 2317 436 7747
Last daily increment 454 1661 49 57 34 32 133 311 29 0 0 116 36 56 103 7 347 47 61 73 60 0 29 67 0 18
Last week 3915 18184 393 467 427 413 808 3646 170 715 15 1926 285 333 723 54 2962 570 1972 441 645 448 208 438 7 385
Previous peak date04-1004-0704-0604-1506-05 --04-0804-1604-0403-3104-2104-05 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-12 -- --04-0704-04
Previous peak daily increment 964 3074 20 328 5 10 221 18 946 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks 8 -799 0 -106 2 0 -1351 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 3 10 -5 0 -54

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-01-03

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2112-2707-1708-2309-12 --11-1810-0507-2309-1412-24 --12-29 --12-1212-2212-14 -- --12-0912-2109-0910-3012-1411-0310-2112-1112-0411-06 -- -- --11-1608-2012-2012-0112-0612-11 -- --11-2112-2612-0912-0305-2906-2512-1612-1611-17 -- -- -- -- --12-0312-1712-23 --09-1512-2912-0112-3012-03
Peak daily increment 35 1065 136 785 318 1159 473 1724 2947 159 551 257 5 42 42 147 33 1 8 99 354 6 312 18 249 155 106 42 6 125 61 12 68 28 27 25 1566 30 33 58 24 78 196 72 98 61 23 7
Days since peak 122 166 7 170 133 113 46 90 164 111 10 5 22 12 20 25 13 116 65 20 61 74 23 30 58 48 136 14 33 28 23 43 8 25 31 219 192 18 18 47 31 17 11 110 5 33 4 31
Last total 909 196018 15880 16767 43965 149649 22734 55540 127213 37773 9257 57730 29577 21488 351580 215 4873 3749 9061 26638 4934 6099 794 930 21987 10610 287 3946 1448 18322 8111 2779 2723 7537 12601 5947 359 13165 5430 5380 4871 972 6910 1310 1667 780 19208 2551 3180 38168 9076 2547 1500 16230 5469 1513 6868 28430 938 5124 3455 5261 1376 438
Last daily increment 0 293 173 43 200 214 179 102 362 93 4 495 402 193 1394 0 1 20 0 96 22 0 2 0 97 4 0 0 0 108 56 0 25 49 108 29 1 0 53 17 31 1 18 0 3 11 21 17 32 137 59 20 8 51 84 12 51 92 3 7 -1 5 3 0
Last week 0 4448 711 324 1591 1496 1282 726 4358 299 133 3171 2506 1353 16744 15 161 212 592 2219 303 196 23 32 679 250 4 202 71 852 572 267 160 201 451 260 33 548 271 252 237 45 349 40 85 65 557 169 209 866 505 164 67 1175 296 67 424 1392 52 263 264 201 113 33
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-13 --09-1609-1507-2208-0704-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-22 --05-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1705-2804-3008-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-2904-16 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-2707-3004-2204-0104-06 --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 144 92 380 125 2218 99 124 78 137 72 105 11 46 175 66 14 19 112 99 13 64 459 56 136 23 17 31 5 40 317 9 18 3573 76 7 137 44 2 455 5 104 60 13 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 16 9 10 2 1 1 -3 45 25 3 3 15 10 -1 5 6 5 2 1 52 3 5 6 1 68 9 6 3 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-01-03 75024 375489 6324 19701 7678 2382 11960 34791 1374 50837 64671 4957 4072 9884 2259 75332 11612 29119 7118 15979 8727 2803 2317 7747
2021-01-04 75020 379000 6399 19780 7862 2416 12080 35430 1405 51140 65080 5005 4135 10000 2265 75790 11610 29320 7189 16150 8728 2835 2390 7914
2021-01-05 75560 383400 6476 19850 7975 2511 12190 36480 1435 51390 65930 5053 4198 10110 2271 76250 11760 29580 7258 16270 8906 2866 2477 8028
2021-01-06 76420 387000 6550 19920 8067 2595 12300 37350 1465 51580 66160 5100 4261 10220 2277 76700 11870 30070 7326 16390 9091 2898 2578 8118
2021-01-07 77200 389900 6627 20000 8117 2638 12410 37860 1496 51700 66370 5146 4323 10330 2283 77150 11960 30540 7394 16520 9095 2928 2649 8168
2021-01-08 77710 392100 6704 20070 8160 2751 12520 38190 1527 51700 66530 5192 4387 10440 2288 77600 12040 30880 7462 16610 9103 2959 2745 8222
2021-01-09 78100 393500 6782 20150 8183 2785 12630 38520 1559 51700 66620 5239 4450 10550 2294 78050 12080 30970 7530 16680 9103 2990 2759 8237
2021-01-10 78460 395100 6860 20220 8213 2812 12740 38820 1592 51700 66730 5285 4514 10670 2299 78510 12110 31050 7599 16750 9103 3021 2831 8253

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-03 196018 15880 16767 43965 149649 22734 55540 127213 37773 9257 57730 29577 21488 351580 4873 3749 9061 26638 4934 6099 794 930 21987 10610 3946 1448 18322 8111 2779 2723 7537 12601 5947 359 13165 5430 5380 4871 972 6910 1310 1667 780 19208 2551 3180 38168 9076 2547 1500 16230 5469 1513 6868 28430 938 5124 3455 5261 1376 438
2021-01-04 196500 15980 16770 44190 149900 22970 55630 127500 37840 9281 58280 30080 21720 353100 4935 3808 9074 26640 4962 6148 798 939 22040 10640 3979 1470 18470 8118 2825 2756 7580 12660 5977 361 13270 5486 5434 4876 980 6917 1316 1678 780 19210 2581 3193 38290 9127 2554 1512 16340 5469 1532 6949 28480 955 5124 3478 5339 1392 447
2021-01-05 197500 16130 16810 44420 150100 23190 55710 128400 37900 9306 58800 30570 21940 356400 4961 3858 9217 26940 4998 6167 802 945 22130 10710 4010 1482 18580 8263 2875 2785 7634 12710 6014 367 13450 5505 5559 4953 991 6941 1321 1690 792 19320 2600 3234 38410 9258 2573 1524 16610 5492 1532 7056 28700 969 5179 3510 5418 1418 451
2021-01-06 198600 16240 16820 44640 150300 23390 55790 129300 37960 9330 59340 31050 22170 359800 5011 3891 9297 27180 5059 6204 805 949 22260 10760 4041 1492 18760 8361 2924 2815 7682 12770 6069 370 13500 5569 5630 4984 1001 7070 1327 1701 803 19480 2637 3279 38520 9377 2618 1537 16900 5544 1544 7137 29000 986 5235 3529 5461 1447 451
2021-01-07 199500 16390 16910 44860 150600 23590 55880 130100 38020 9354 59880 31520 22400 362700 5062 3923 9424 27440 5120 6237 809 954 22370 10840 4072 1521 18900 8449 2975 2843 7718 12820 6117 380 13520 5631 5661 5015 1009 7091 1333 1712 817 19550 2673 3327 38630 9473 2652 1549 17150 5582 1566 7224 29300 995 5275 3560 5508 1470 472
2021-01-08 199900 16410 16960 45080 150800 23780 55960 130700 38070 9379 60380 31990 22620 364700 5093 3953 9551 27500 5165 6238 812 959 22380 10860 4103 1521 18960 8528 3026 2873 7720 12870 6160 385 13520 5638 5672 5037 1011 7092 1338 1724 817 19620 2699 3348 38740 9480 2653 1561 17320 5587 1570 7239 29550 997 5313 3564 5522 1490 473
2021-01-09 200200 16470 17020 45300 151000 23970 56040 131100 38130 9404 60830 32460 22850 366700 5102 3968 9597 27580 5190 6307 816 964 22550 10870 4134 1527 19130 8562 3078 2902 7720 12920 6189 390 13770 5682 5675 5056 1018 7223 1344 1736 827 19640 2723 3356 38850 9518 2689 1574 17360 5663 1582 7271 29630 1010 5344 3564 5522 1499 473
2021-01-10 200500 16610 17060 45520 151200 24160 56130 131400 38190 9429 61310 32930 23080 367900 5104 3994 9609 27700 5215 6307 819 969 22640 10880 4165 1527 19240 8614 3131 2932 7757 12980 6217 391 13770 5736 5689 5088 1019 7249 1350 1748 835 19650 2743 3384 38960 9563 2706 1586 17420 5725 1591 7329 29700 1011 5349 3564 5527 1502 473

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-01-03 75024 375489 6324 19701 7678 2382 11960 34791 1374 50837 64671 4957 4072 9884 2259 75332 11612 29119 7118 15979 8727 2803 2317 7747
2021-01-04 75470 377900 6367 19750 7743 2442 12080 35560 1403 51000 64940 5000 4127 9990 2266 75740 11650 29210 7186 16070 8737 2835 2386 7873
2021-01-05 75990 381800 6439 19830 7838 2533 12210 36600 1431 51190 65510 5046 4184 10100 2272 76220 11800 29470 7252 16180 8863 2864 2464 7984
2021-01-06 76670 385100 6510 19900 7918 2620 12330 37500 1462 51360 65780 5091 4247 10210 2278 76670 11900 29840 7317 16280 8999 2893 2548 8077
2021-01-07 77330 388000 6583 19970 7977 2670 12460 38100 1494 51480 66040 5136 4309 10320 2284 77120 11990 30190 7382 16390 9022 2922 2625 8139
2021-01-08 77820 390500 6650 20030 8050 2765 12580 38490 1525 51570 66290 5182 4370 10430 2291 77550 12080 30490 7448 16490 9052 2951 2709 8206
2021-01-09 78230 392700 6719 20090 8120 2799 12690 38880 1557 51650 66520 5224 4437 10540 2297 77950 12120 30690 7515 16580 9076 2981 2771 8255
2021-01-10 78630 394900 6793 20150 8184 2829 12790 39250 1590 51730 66750 5270 4503 10660 2303 78320 12150 30860 7582 16680 9098 3011 2852 8290

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-03 196018 15880 16767 43965 149649 22734 55540 127213 37773 9257 57730 29577 21488 351580 4873 3749 9061 26638 4934 6099 794 930 21987 10610 3946 1448 18322 8111 2779 2723 7537 12601 5947 359 13165 5430 5380 4871 972 6910 1310 1667 780 19208 2551 3180 38168 9076 2547 1500 16230 5469 1513 6868 28430 938 5124 3455 5261 1376 438
2021-01-04 196400 15990 16800 44190 149900 22940 55620 127600 37820 9271 58200 29950 21690 353100 4886 3780 9101 26790 4955 6167 797 933 22100 10620 3966 1463 18430 8154 2820 2754 7573 12670 5978 362 13240 5437 5397 4891 977 6938 1314 1674 785 19230 2576 3193 38300 9141 2560 1511 16310 5508 1518 6924 28500 945 5142 3461 5268 1382 454
2021-01-05 197300 16120 16840 44420 150100 23140 55680 128600 37860 9295 58720 30330 21910 356100 4917 3817 9216 27250 4996 6193 800 938 22190 10680 3988 1478 18550 8308 2867 2777 7617 12730 6018 368 13380 5454 5483 4962 987 6967 1318 1684 796 19290 2598 3233 38430 9270 2580 1523 16540 5533 1522 7009 28710 953 5186 3522 5351 1405 459
2021-01-06 198200 16220 16860 44670 150300 23340 55740 129500 37900 9319 59250 30710 22130 359100 4958 3853 9295 27650 5050 6226 803 944 22310 10730 4013 1490 18710 8405 2928 2800 7658 12780 6066 372 13450 5521 5540 4993 997 7072 1322 1694 807 19380 2628 3275 38550 9384 2619 1537 16790 5577 1533 7081 28990 967 5230 3558 5394 1429 461
2021-01-07 199000 16350 16920 44920 150500 23510 55800 130300 37940 9343 59790 31080 22360 361700 4998 3888 9402 28100 5103 6259 807 949 22430 10790 4043 1514 18850 8492 2966 2822 7693 12840 6111 380 13510 5581 5576 5026 1006 7101 1326 1705 821 19420 2659 3321 38670 9479 2651 1549 17010 5614 1548 7156 29290 976 5267 3591 5440 1450 480
2021-01-08 199500 16410 16960 45170 150700 23660 55860 131000 37970 9367 60310 31460 22580 363200 5033 3924 9506 28320 5153 6279 810 953 22460 10820 4066 1522 18950 8582 3008 2845 7714 12890 6155 384 13560 5592 5613 5050 1010 7114 1330 1715 822 19450 2686 3346 38800 9489 2659 1562 17190 5630 1557 7200 29560 978 5301 3597 5464 1471 483
2021-01-09 200000 16490 17000 45420 150900 23800 55920 131300 38000 9390 60820 31840 22810 364600 5062 3958 9567 28560 5183 6315 814 958 22590 10860 4089 1532 19090 8626 3048 2868 7734 12950 6192 389 13740 5643 5651 5069 1018 7211 1335 1726 831 19480 2710 3361 38920 9519 2690 1574 17300 5682 1571 7250 29640 982 5330 3601 5489 1491 485
2021-01-10 200500 16620 17040 45650 151100 23990 55980 131600 38040 9414 61350 32210 23040 365400 5085 3993 9616 28710 5215 6331 817 962 22660 10880 4112 1538 19200 8658 3079 2892 7769 13010 6227 392 13800 5692 5685 5095 1021 7241 1339 1737 838 19490 2736 3381 39040 9540 2709 1586 17420 5719 1579 7317 29690 984 5349 3607 5503 1500 487

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths