COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-01-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-01-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)11-2412-0212-1711-0312-02 --11-04 --12-3111-0412-2111-1611-2912-1712-1111-1812-0411-0411-2712-1312-0412-1512-04 --12-0212-03
Peak daily increment 458 3544 108 202 145 207 30 927 6 608 101 74 164 5 735 79 492 82 165 64 54 5 96
Days since peak 41 33 18 62 33 61 4 61 14 49 36 18 24 47 31 61 38 22 31 20 31 33 32
Last total 75431 378831 6357 19750 7835 2709 12070 35748 1389 51078 565 65049 5011 4126 9977 2265 75680 11675 29161 7196 16057 8727 2838 2521 449 7918
Last daily increment 407 3342 33 49 157 327 110 957 15 241 4 378 54 54 93 6 348 63 42 78 78 0 35 204 13 171
Last week 3864 16471 298 389 430 652 768 3481 163 636 15 1336 281 331 685 52 2651 463 1707 445 588 243 207 538 16 425
Previous peak date04-1004-0604-0604-1506-05 --04-0804-1604-0403-3104-2104-05 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-12 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3070 20 328 5 10 233 15 946 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks 8 -799 0 -106 2 0 0 -1351 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 3 10 -5 0 -54

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-01-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2112-2707-1708-2309-12 --11-1810-0507-2309-1412-24 -- -- --12-1212-2212-14 -- --12-0912-2109-0910-3012-1811-0310-2112-1112-0411-0612-30 -- --11-1608-2012-1812-0112-0712-0812-22 --11-2112-2612-0912-0405-2906-2512-1612-1611-1712-07 --12-15 --07-28 --12-1712-2312-0809-1512-2912-0412-3012-03
Peak daily increment 35 1065 132 785 318 1159 473 1724 2947 159 549 6 42 42 151 33 1 8 99 354 6 305 18 249 83 155 106 42 6 129 61 58 12 64 28 27 25 1566 30 33 58 81 21 45 78 197 9 72 93 61 23 7
Days since peak 123 167 8 171 134 114 47 91 165 112 11 23 13 21 26 14 117 66 17 62 75 24 31 59 5 49 137 17 34 28 27 13 44 9 26 31 220 193 19 19 48 28 20 160 18 12 27 111 6 31 5 32
Last total 909 196561 16098 16767 44187 149850 22911 55650 127757 37830 9263 58203 30011 21685 353483 218 4878 3800 9064 26880 4944 6168 797 937 22090 10617 287 3992 1459 18412 8150 2837 2749 7585 12662 5966 361 13249 5443 5380 4884 975 6941 1312 1677 780 19225 2574 3206 38338 9143 2552 1506 16335 5484 1513 7001 28551 940 5132 3478 5269 1396 438
Last daily increment 0 543 218 0 222 201 177 110 544 57 6 473 434 197 1903 3 5 51 3 242 10 69 3 7 103 7 0 46 11 90 39 58 26 48 61 19 2 84 13 0 13 3 31 2 10 0 17 23 26 170 67 5 6 105 15 0 133 121 2 8 23 8 20 0
Last week 0 3880 711 279 1567 1411 1208 704 3912 305 101 3096 2443 1297 14915 17 141 197 424 1963 257 244 22 39 681 181 4 180 66 816 447 268 155 188 452 240 28 421 247 152 165 36 367 36 80 45 448 171 190 903 421 147 57 992 286 67 435 1269 45 212 113 117 112 33
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-13 --09-1609-1507-2208-0704-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-22 --05-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1705-2804-3008-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-2904-16 --05-0504-29 -- --07-27 --04-2204-0104-06 --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 144 92 380 125 2218 99 124 78 137 72 105 11 46 175 66 14 19 112 99 13 64 459 56 136 23 17 31 5 40 317 9 18 3573 76 7 137 24 455 104 60 13 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 9 10 2 1 1 -3 45 25 3 3 15 5 10 -1 5 6 5 5 2 1 52 3 5 6 11 6 68 9 6 3 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-01-04 75431 378831 6357 19750 7835 2709 12070 35748 1389 51078 65049 5011 4126 9977 2265 75680 11675 29161 7196 16057 8727 2838 2521 7918
2021-01-05 75540 383500 6425 19820 8005 2709 12180 37260 1414 51370 65910 5058 4188 10080 2271 76120 11770 29510 7266 16260 8878 2870 2627 8046
2021-01-06 76410 387100 6495 19890 8095 2831 12290 38320 1439 51580 66140 5104 4250 10190 2277 76550 11870 29980 7335 16370 9058 2901 2727 8138
2021-01-07 77220 390000 6564 19960 8144 2944 12400 38970 1463 51690 66340 5150 4312 10290 2283 76980 11970 30430 7404 16500 9058 2932 2826 8191
2021-01-08 77750 392100 6635 20030 8187 3073 12510 39410 1487 51690 66500 5195 4373 10390 2289 77410 12050 30750 7471 16580 9062 2963 2924 8247
2021-01-09 78100 393900 6706 20100 8226 3153 12620 39730 1512 51700 66620 5240 4435 10500 2294 77850 12090 30860 7539 16660 9062 2994 3025 8277
2021-01-10 78490 395100 6778 20170 8243 3225 12730 40070 1536 51700 66700 5286 4497 10600 2300 78280 12130 30870 7607 16720 9062 3024 3128 8283
2021-01-11 78830 398100 6850 20240 8381 3473 12840 41170 1561 51930 67050 5331 4560 10710 2305 78710 12170 30920 7675 16800 9062 3056 3236 8445

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-04 196561 16098 16767 44187 149850 22911 55650 127757 37830 9263 58203 30011 21685 353483 4878 3800 9064 26880 4944 6168 797 937 22090 10617 3992 1459 18412 8150 2837 2749 7585 12662 5966 361 13249 5443 5380 4884 975 6941 1312 1677 780 19225 2574 3206 38338 9143 2552 1506 16335 5484 1513 7001 28551 940 5132 3478 5269 1396 438
2021-01-05 197500 16220 16800 44420 150100 23100 55750 128400 37900 9286 58810 30380 21990 356200 4954 3860 9209 26970 5018 6168 801 942 22140 10700 4020 1477 18560 8252 2871 2766 7634 12720 6009 367 13450 5505 5547 4947 989 6949 1317 1688 790 19290 2599 3236 38460 9250 2570 1517 16600 5484 1526 7092 28700 946 5168 3504 5397 1421 445
2021-01-06 198500 16330 16810 44650 150300 23280 55850 129300 37960 9309 59350 30740 22220 359600 5004 3894 9287 27330 5079 6205 805 948 22260 10750 4048 1485 18730 8346 2979 2788 7682 12780 6062 369 13490 5564 5617 4977 999 7075 1323 1699 801 19430 2634 3279 38580 9367 2614 1528 16880 5535 1539 7175 28990 961 5222 3532 5433 1449 445
2021-01-07 199400 16440 16900 44880 150400 23450 55950 130100 38020 9332 59890 31100 22440 362600 5052 3926 9418 27780 5142 6243 808 952 22380 10830 4075 1514 18870 8434 2995 2809 7718 12830 6109 380 13500 5623 5642 5008 1006 7098 1329 1710 815 19500 2670 3326 38700 9465 2649 1539 17120 5575 1559 7263 29300 969 5263 3549 5474 1472 468
2021-01-08 199900 16550 16950 45110 150600 23630 56040 130800 38070 9355 60390 31460 22650 364400 5081 3957 9547 27980 5188 6246 812 957 22390 10850 4102 1514 18930 8511 3063 2831 7720 12890 6152 384 13500 5628 5647 5029 1007 7102 1334 1721 815 19570 2696 3347 38810 9472 2650 1551 17290 5581 1561 7279 29560 969 5304 3549 5484 1491 469
2021-01-09 200200 16670 17010 45330 150800 23800 56140 131100 38130 9378 60840 31830 22870 366500 5093 3975 9583 28320 5219 6311 815 962 22550 10870 4128 1522 19100 8544 3063 2853 7720 12940 6181 388 13760 5675 5659 5049 1014 7227 1340 1732 824 19600 2720 3355 38920 9515 2683 1562 17340 5649 1574 7318 29630 980 5332 3549 5494 1502 469
2021-01-10 200400 16780 17050 45560 151000 23980 56230 131400 38190 9401 61300 32200 23060 367600 5093 3999 9584 28420 5235 6314 819 967 22640 10870 4155 1522 19190 8594 3063 2875 7756 12990 6205 390 13760 5717 5660 5076 1014 7252 1346 1744 833 19610 2738 3379 39040 9553 2701 1573 17380 5716 1580 7371 29690 981 5335 3549 5494 1502 469
2021-01-11 200900 16890 17060 45790 151200 24160 56330 131900 38240 9424 61740 32570 23260 369400 5096 4047 9585 28620 5235 6392 823 972 22740 10880 4182 1533 19290 8632 3121 2897 7804 13050 6224 392 13820 5728 5661 5089 1018 7271 1352 1755 833 19620 2760 3402 39150 9616 2705 1585 17470 5729 1582 7474 29790 983 5341 3549 5508 1518 474

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-01-04 75431 378831 6357 19750 7835 2709 12070 35748 1389 51078 65049 5011 4126 9977 2265 75680 11675 29161 7196 16057 8727 2838 2521 7918
2021-01-05 75950 382800 6408 19830 7936 2876 12210 36840 1413 51260 65630 5057 4177 10080 2271 76140 11830 29370 7266 16160 8841 2870 2628 8028
2021-01-06 76630 386200 6470 19900 8013 2987 12330 37720 1441 51410 65900 5100 4238 10180 2278 76580 11930 29740 7331 16260 8979 2900 2719 8120
2021-01-07 77300 389100 6536 19970 8067 3068 12450 38270 1469 51510 66150 5143 4296 10290 2284 77020 12030 30100 7397 16360 9003 2929 2805 8179
2021-01-08 77840 391600 6595 20030 8118 3203 12570 38630 1497 51560 66380 5186 4350 10400 2291 77440 12120 30400 7462 16450 9031 2958 2896 8238
2021-01-09 78250 393900 6654 20090 8184 3267 12680 39010 1526 51620 66610 5225 4414 10500 2297 77820 12160 30600 7527 16540 9058 2988 2963 8284
2021-01-10 78670 396100 6720 20150 8243 3326 12780 39330 1555 51680 66840 5269 4477 10610 2303 78190 12190 30790 7594 16630 9083 3017 3050 8317
2021-01-11 79070 399000 6778 20200 8336 3439 12890 40220 1585 51860 67170 5314 4540 10720 2310 78600 12220 30960 7661 16720 9105 3047 3159 8461

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-04 196561 16098 16767 44187 149850 22911 55650 127757 37830 9263 58203 30011 21685 353483 4878 3800 9064 26880 4944 6168 797 937 22090 10617 3992 1459 18412 8150 2837 2749 7585 12662 5966 361 13249 5443 5380 4884 975 6941 1312 1677 780 19225 2574 3206 38338 9143 2552 1506 16335 5484 1513 7001 28551 940 5132 3478 5269 1396 438
2021-01-05 197400 16260 16800 44420 150100 23120 55720 128700 37880 9275 58710 30420 21900 356800 4897 3839 9154 27280 4993 6196 800 941 22190 10660 4021 1470 18530 8298 2887 2777 7630 12730 5999 366 13380 5463 5453 4956 984 6976 1315 1685 792 19280 2595 3250 38480 9270 2572 1519 16550 5518 1519 7098 28770 947 5169 3543 5345 1418 440
2021-01-06 198300 16370 16830 44670 150300 23310 55780 129600 37920 9298 59230 30800 22120 359900 4936 3873 9231 27680 5056 6227 803 946 22310 10710 4047 1479 18700 8389 2976 2799 7668 12790 6046 370 13440 5532 5512 4986 994 7083 1319 1696 802 19360 2625 3291 38600 9381 2610 1532 16800 5562 1532 7169 29050 957 5212 3580 5387 1441 442
2021-01-07 199100 16500 16890 44920 150500 23490 55840 130500 37960 9320 59760 31170 22340 362600 4975 3908 9336 28150 5120 6259 807 951 22420 10770 4078 1501 18830 8475 3005 2821 7701 12850 6089 377 13490 5592 5549 5019 1002 7113 1324 1706 816 19400 2655 3336 38730 9473 2642 1544 17030 5597 1548 7242 29350 963 5248 3614 5431 1460 461
2021-01-08 199600 16570 16930 45160 150700 23670 55890 131200 37990 9342 60270 31540 22560 364100 5003 3942 9442 28410 5175 6274 810 955 22450 10800 4102 1505 18900 8559 3067 2844 7717 12900 6131 382 13540 5595 5576 5044 1005 7128 1328 1717 817 19440 2681 3359 38850 9477 2649 1555 17210 5614 1555 7279 29620 966 5284 3616 5441 1478 464
2021-01-09 200000 16660 16970 45410 150900 23850 55940 131400 38020 9365 60760 31920 22780 365600 5029 3972 9498 28680 5218 6315 813 959 22590 10820 4125 1514 19060 8595 3089 2866 7734 12960 6167 387 13710 5647 5614 5062 1013 7231 1333 1727 826 19470 2705 3372 38980 9507 2680 1566 17300 5667 1570 7329 29700 974 5312 3616 5463 1497 466
2021-01-10 200500 16780 17010 45630 151100 24050 56000 131700 38060 9387 61280 32290 23000 366300 5050 4005 9542 28830 5260 6330 817 964 22660 10840 4148 1517 19160 8625 3110 2889 7767 13020 6201 390 13770 5700 5649 5087 1016 7262 1338 1738 834 19480 2729 3393 39100 9529 2698 1578 17420 5706 1581 7392 29750 978 5329 3618 5477 1505 468
2021-01-11 201000 16900 17030 45860 151400 24250 56050 132100 38100 9410 61790 32680 23230 367300 5074 4046 9590 29010 5291 6380 820 968 22750 10870 4172 1533 19270 8655 3160 2912 7804 13080 6233 394 13840 5710 5679 5103 1022 7285 1343 1749 836 19490 2755 3406 39230 9575 2709 1589 17540 5728 1590 7462 29820 981 5346 3623 5497 1516 478

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths