COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-01-07


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-01-07

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --12-0812-1711-0312-07 --11-04 -- --11-0412-2111-1611-2912-1712-1111-1812-0111-0411-27 --11-2712-0812-07 --12-0212-07
Peak daily increment 3526 107 202 144 207 927 6 608 101 74 165 5 724 79 492 164 65 52 5 97
Days since peak 30 21 65 31 64 64 17 52 39 21 27 50 37 64 41 41 30 31 36 31
Last total 78508 390535 6568 19936 8017 2862 12621 38987 1487 51675 584 66197 5146 4266 10325 2307 77291 12084 30241 7472 16410 9262 2922 2717 467 8178
Last daily increment 1162 3342 43 53 56 48 185 1152 37 245 8 0 47 43 127 8 414 85 186 95 111 277 23 60 2 69
Last week 4383 18425 307 355 413 544 910 4842 165 838 23 1798 265 305 658 59 2670 555 1285 500 569 535 194 467 31 474
Previous peak date04-0904-0704-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1604-0403-3104-2104-05 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1405-0304-12 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 957 3074 20 328 5 7 10 233 18 946 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 29 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -799 0 -106 2 0 -1351 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 10 -5 0 -54

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-01-07

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2112-2707-1708-2309-12 --11-1810-0507-2309-1412-24 --12-26 --12-1212-2212-14 -- --12-0912-2109-0910-3012-1011-0310-2112-1112-0711-0612-0712-16 --11-1608-2012-18 --12-0712-0912-08 --11-21 --12-09 --05-2906-2512-09 --11-1712-07 --12-0712-22 --12-08 --12-2312-1009-1512-2912-07 --12-07
Peak daily increment 35 1065 126 785 318 1159 473 1724 2947 159 548 250 6 41 42 149 33 1 8 100 354 6 297 19 249 80 50 155 106 42 135 64 58 12 27 25 1566 31 58 84 23 191 24 188 10 72 88 62 7
Days since peak 126 170 11 174 137 117 50 94 168 115 14 12 26 16 24 29 17 120 69 28 65 78 27 31 62 31 22 52 140 20 31 29 30 47 29 223 196 29 51 31 31 16 30 15 28 114 9 31 31
Last total 909 200498 16595 16913 45067 150570 23520 55933 131031 37925 9356 59628 31809 22264 365208 223 5080 3926 9741 28457 5102 6286 808 949 22481 10872 297 4065 1517 18941 8452 2986 2843 7728 12900 6109 385 13728 5572 5688 5013 1038 7213 1341 1809 826 19646 2680 3339 38849 9462 2672 1568 17173 5661 1544 7318 29498 972 5275 3630 5477 1518 489
Last daily increment 0 1524 192 97 344 234 224 103 1044 0 9 491 441 194 4085 3 86 25 297 531 52 56 2 2 164 64 0 5 29 206 81 1 37 47 73 46 13 206 44 68 0 23 137 7 108 11 123 39 44 205 94 39 10 258 79 25 110 380 19 49 29 42 37 25
Last week 0 5087 951 253 1572 1576 1191 596 4524 245 108 2830 2922 1171 17314 17 208 215 726 2171 229 291 20 19 808 268 10 167 81 963 436 208 220 240 486 222 33 849 249 329 197 77 465 32 146 67 486 178 196 935 500 183 91 1018 365 56 558 1139 53 194 174 223 157 51
Previous peak date -- --05-06 -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-14 --09-1609-1507-2208-0604-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-22 --05-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2804-3008-26 -- -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-2005-1804-2904-21 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0104-06 --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 1662 144 92 380 125 2273 99 124 79 147 72 105 11 46 175 66 14 19 112 99 13 64 459 56 137 23 17 31 37 317 9 21 3573 76 9 137 47 2 461 104 60 13 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 16 9 10 2 1 1 -3 45 25 3 3 15 5 10 -1 5 6 5 5 52 3 6 11 13 1 70 9 6 3 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-08 to 2021-01-14

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-07 78508 390535 6568 19936 8017 2862 12621 38987 1487 51675 584 66197 5146 4266 10325 2307 77291 12084 30241 7472 16410 9262 2922 2717 467 8178
2021-01-08 79440 393300 6632 20000 8148 2948 12630 40110 1525 51780 592 66640 5193 4296 10440 2315 77740 12130 30730 7568 16580 9262 2953 2889 467 8273
2021-01-09 80200 395000 6695 20070 8174 2991 12750 40780 1562 51780 592 66750 5240 4326 10550 2322 78170 12180 30820 7661 16650 9262 2984 2936 467 8298
2021-01-10 80930 396500 6758 20130 8200 3032 12870 41280 1599 51780 592 66850 5286 4358 10660 2330 78600 12230 30840 7753 16710 9264 3013 3031 467 8308
2021-01-11 81550 399500 6820 20200 8327 3086 12970 42530 1636 52010 599 67190 5332 4388 10770 2337 79030 12280 30870 7844 16790 9271 3043 3238 478 8469
2021-01-12 82470 404000 6884 20270 8406 3162 13130 43800 1674 52340 606 68010 5378 4419 10880 2343 79450 12410 31190 7936 16910 9494 3073 3346 480 8574
2021-01-13 83720 407600 6947 20330 8462 3225 13290 45090 1713 52390 608 68260 5424 4451 10990 2350 79880 12570 31680 8029 17010 9562 3103 3443 492 8662
2021-01-14 84610 410600 7011 20400 8517 3262 13460 46120 1753 52570 614 68310 5470 4482 11100 2356 80310 12650 31960 8124 17130 9744 3133 3520 492 8719

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-08 to 2021-01-14

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-07 200498 16595 16913 45067 150570 23520 55933 131031 37925 9356 59628 31809 22264 365208 5080 3926 9741 28457 5102 6286 808 22481 10872 4065 1517 18941 8452 2986 2843 7728 12900 6109 385 13728 5572 5688 5013 1038 7213 1341 1809 826 19646 2680 3339 38849 9462 2672 1568 17173 5661 1544 7318 29498 972 5275 3630 5477 1518 489
2021-01-08 200700 16600 16950 45310 150800 23700 56050 131400 38020 9380 60330 32240 22460 367400 5111 3963 9830 28890 5158 6286 812 22480 10900 4092 1522 19000 8537 3073 2881 7741 12960 6159 387 13730 5609 5721 5043 1038 7248 1354 1844 826 19690 2703 3387 38970 9490 2692 1584 17370 5672 1555 7406 29690 972 5313 3641 5522 1522 489
2021-01-09 201100 16670 17010 45540 151100 23860 56160 131800 38080 9405 60760 32650 22650 369200 5121 3998 9910 29230 5185 6353 816 22650 10910 4118 1529 19170 8578 3076 2915 7741 13030 6188 392 13990 5651 5732 5065 1047 7313 1354 1870 837 19720 2726 3412 39080 9534 2717 1599 17420 5763 1566 7490 29770 983 5345 3643 5527 1535 489
2021-01-10 201400 16820 17050 45770 151300 24020 56270 132100 38130 9430 61220 33060 22840 369400 5121 4035 9950 29410 5203 6354 819 22750 10920 4145 1529 19270 8628 3076 2949 7780 13090 6213 394 13990 5697 5744 5094 1049 7380 1354 1893 846 19740 2746 3448 39180 9577 2743 1611 17480 5849 1572 7577 29830 985 5350 3643 5532 1538 490
2021-01-11 201900 17000 17060 45990 151500 24180 56380 132600 38190 9455 61660 33450 23020 370100 5124 4069 9970 29630 5210 6431 823 22850 10930 4172 1543 19370 8665 3132 2983 7827 13140 6233 396 14070 5706 5745 5108 1053 7446 1354 1914 847 19750 2768 3484 39290 9642 2767 1623 17570 5863 1573 7660 29910 987 5356 3661 5544 1554 496
2021-01-12 203000 17150 17090 46210 151800 24330 56490 133600 38240 9480 62150 33840 23210 372500 5139 4104 10180 30200 5261 6451 827 22930 11020 4198 1556 19510 8800 3238 3017 7876 13200 6271 403 14260 5729 5928 5187 1075 7512 1366 1934 856 19880 2788 3529 39390 9754 2791 1636 17800 5889 1573 7746 30130 992 5411 3704 5635 1593 514
2021-01-13 204200 17290 17110 46430 152000 24480 56600 134700 38300 9505 62570 34240 23400 374600 5235 4139 10300 30780 5308 6485 830 23060 11100 4224 1569 19670 8885 3267 3051 7922 13260 6323 406 14320 5787 5974 5222 1087 7579 1369 1955 876 20020 2828 3597 39490 9872 2814 1648 18140 5972 1579 7832 30430 1004 5456 3759 5689 1630 514
2021-01-14 205400 17460 17200 46650 152300 24620 56710 135600 38350 9530 63060 34630 23590 376500 5317 4175 10510 31290 5359 6539 834 23200 11160 4251 1598 19840 8964 3277 3086 7961 13320 6368 419 14460 5832 6024 5230 1103 7647 1377 1976 887 20110 2865 3636 39600 9963 2838 1660 18390 6037 1603 7920 30760 1019 5496 3792 5737 1662 538

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-08 to 2021-01-14

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-07 78508 390535 6568 19936 8017 2862 12621 38987 1487 51675 584 66197 5146 4266 10325 2307 77291 12084 30241 7472 16410 9262 2922 2717 467 8178
2021-01-08 79420 393200 6621 19980 8060 2949 12760 39640 1519 51750 586 66410 5190 4305 10440 2317 77730 12190 30520 7559 16500 9343 2950 2807 470 8238
2021-01-09 79970 395300 6667 20030 8101 3007 12880 39990 1549 51800 587 66610 5230 4354 10530 2324 78100 12230 30680 7636 16570 9361 2980 2882 471 8268
2021-01-10 80520 397200 6716 20080 8139 3059 13000 40310 1582 51840 589 66810 5270 4404 10630 2331 78460 12270 30810 7713 16640 9381 3009 2975 471 8290
2021-01-11 81050 400100 6763 20130 8229 3267 13120 41240 1612 52000 594 67120 5313 4456 10730 2339 78820 12320 30930 7789 16710 9399 3039 3111 478 8427
2021-01-12 81680 404000 6819 20200 8306 3346 13260 42320 1641 52200 599 67690 5355 4507 10830 2346 79290 12460 31200 7866 16820 9546 3069 3212 480 8525
2021-01-13 82410 407500 6874 20250 8382 3397 13400 43290 1675 52310 603 67960 5395 4558 10930 2353 79730 12580 31560 7947 16920 9641 3099 3321 486 8614
2021-01-14 83080 410500 6921 20310 8447 3462 13520 43910 1711 52440 608 68210 5437 4609 11030 2360 80200 12670 31870 8027 17030 9694 3130 3428 486 8674

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-08 to 2021-01-14

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-07 200498 16595 16913 45067 150570 23520 55933 131031 37925 9356 59628 31809 22264 365208 5080 3926 9741 28457 5102 6286 808 22481 10872 4065 1517 18941 8452 2986 2843 7728 12900 6109 385 13728 5572 5688 5013 1038 7213 1341 1809 826 19646 2680 3339 38849 9462 2672 1568 17173 5661 1544 7318 29498 972 5275 3630 5477 1518 489
2021-01-08 201300 16690 16960 45340 150800 23710 56000 131800 37960 9378 60110 32330 22450 367800 5125 3961 9900 28830 5142 6313 811 22520 10910 4091 1524 19040 8537 3037 2874 7752 12980 6152 391 13810 5570 5724 5038 1047 7282 1349 1845 829 19740 2710 3372 39010 9475 2690 1579 17370 5694 1548 7406 29790 977 5316 3636 5487 1545 494
2021-01-09 201800 16780 17010 45590 151000 23880 56060 132200 37990 9399 60570 32780 22650 369600 5140 3991 9990 29110 5172 6363 815 22680 10940 4122 1531 19190 8570 3052 2899 7768 13040 6184 396 13970 5611 5749 5061 1056 7345 1353 1852 839 19770 2734 3387 39140 9507 2716 1588 17450 5764 1559 7469 29870 985 5346 3638 5493 1561 496
2021-01-10 202200 16920 17040 45800 151200 24050 56110 132500 38020 9419 61040 33230 22850 370700 5151 4023 10070 29230 5198 6380 818 22770 10960 4151 1534 19290 8612 3067 2923 7803 13100 6214 399 14000 5661 5774 5090 1059 7396 1357 1860 848 19790 2756 3409 39260 9537 2737 1598 17540 5830 1567 7537 29910 989 5363 3640 5496 1569 499
2021-01-11 202800 17080 17060 46010 151400 24220 56160 133000 38060 9440 61500 33680 23050 372000 5162 4061 10150 29440 5218 6436 821 22870 10980 4180 1545 19400 8647 3116 2947 7842 13160 6240 402 14070 5665 5793 5105 1064 7449 1361 1876 848 19800 2780 3432 39390 9592 2749 1607 17660 5850 1573 7613 29970 992 5380 3648 5501 1585 506
2021-01-12 203700 17220 17090 46250 151600 24380 56220 134000 38090 9460 62000 34140 23260 374000 5187 4099 10250 29950 5265 6462 824 22950 11050 4209 1557 19530 8780 3192 2972 7883 13220 6276 408 14200 5687 5902 5180 1080 7498 1368 1890 859 19870 2803 3459 39520 9688 2767 1618 17880 5869 1580 7677 30170 998 5419 3697 5585 1615 520
2021-01-13 204600 17350 17110 46500 151800 24550 56270 134900 38120 9481 62500 34630 23470 375900 5239 4136 10340 30440 5315 6494 828 23060 11100 4238 1567 19690 8859 3246 2997 7923 13280 6320 411 14260 5755 5950 5211 1090 7563 1372 1903 874 19940 2836 3497 39650 9790 2804 1629 18140 5926 1591 7750 30460 1007 5456 3750 5646 1640 523
2021-01-14 205500 17490 17170 46770 152000 24710 56320 135800 38160 9502 63030 35110 23670 377600 5280 4170 10440 30950 5367 6531 832 23180 11160 4270 1587 19830 8938 3275 3022 7959 13340 6361 419 14320 5811 5990 5237 1098 7616 1378 1921 887 19980 2866 3532 39780 9877 2833 1639 18360 5967 1609 7820 30740 1015 5490 3785 5690 1662 541

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths