COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-01-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-01-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-2612-1811-0412-022021-01-04 -- -- --11-0412-2011-1611-2912-1912-2012-1912-0111-0411-27 --11-27 --12-04 --12-0211-16
Peak daily increment 3522 115 208 142 218 931 6 604 101 77 166 6 723 79 492 164 52 5 96
Days since peak 55 33 77 49 16 77 31 65 52 32 31 32 50 77 54 54 47 49 65
Last total 93290 435031 7237 20572 8651 3425 14820 50010 1872 54637 632 71273 5545 4711 11615 2768 83681 13248 34141 9465 17485 10797 3257 3737 543 8924
Last daily increment 1820 4078 38 18 37 27 174 1013 35 464 11 310 27 27 95 60 524 86 443 219 116 206 26 100 18 65
Last week 7275 20047 316 278 255 223 964 4803 212 1558 16 2331 158 194 549 280 2833 474 1685 1081 450 612 164 477 32 338
Previous peak date04-1004-0604-0604-1506-0504-1111-0404-1604-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-0305-0304-12 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 985 3074 20 322 5 7 207 233 15 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 30 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks -796 0 -105 2 -2 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 10 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-01-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --12-2707-17 --09-12 --11-1810-0507-2309-1412-20 --12-23 -- --2021-01-1312-14 -- --12-092021-01-1212-2610-3012-1011-032021-01-0612-1112-1011-0612-152021-01-13 --11-1608-2012-182021-01-0812-0712-1112-15 --11-21 --12-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-1511-172021-01-16 -- -- -- --12-032021-01-14 --12-1009-1512-2912-082021-01-162021-01-12
Peak daily increment 35 130 787 1159 473 1833 2944 159 558 253 117 43 151 39 4 8 100 358 6 310 18 244 80 156 147 106 43 21 126 63 61 12 27 25 26 1568 31 44 58 82 23 95 9 72 90 60 29 7
Days since peak 139 24 187 130 63 107 181 128 31 28 7 37 42 8 25 82 41 78 14 40 41 75 36 7 65 153 33 12 44 40 36 60 42 48 236 209 35 5 64 4 48 6 41 127 22 43 4 8
Last total 909 212831 18416 17594 49792 152869 26857 57057 144371 39044 10042 66214 38854 24487 406147 253 6283 4441 11528 35060 5422 6721 863 1026 24578 12358 322 4394 1635 20285 9154 3565 3243 8383 13819 6638 530 14618 5979 6263 5638 1094 8199 1387 1860 949 20664 3009 3863 41299 10409 3085 1832 19811 6328 1667 8351 33491 1069 5861 3936 6035 1836 550
Last daily increment 0 1340 127 21 390 151 267 84 1539 274 64 582 566 159 4375 23 157 55 262 619 34 44 2 5 142 194 1 62 -2 132 62 54 49 59 80 61 11 68 34 167 64 1 60 1 25 12 152 34 71 205 86 48 24 388 69 0 87 459 8 63 0 62 21 0
Last week 0 5736 857 300 2301 951 1611 519 6455 645 303 3198 3002 992 17450 25 338 213 673 2742 106 172 21 31 965 770 7 143 44 561 324 217 201 303 396 248 69 257 162 239 282 17 374 22 49 52 503 173 205 1121 419 203 95 1101 394 53 321 1798 35 235 64 307 134 28
Previous peak date --07-2205-06 --08-0306-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-1311-2409-1609-1507-2208-0604-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-2210-2105-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2904-3008-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-2904-16 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-27 --04-2204-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 168 328 1662 144 90 323 120 2219 3 100 124 78 147 72 106 11 47 175 66 6 14 20 112 98 13 64 459 56 137 23 17 31 5 41 321 9 18 3562 76 7 137 44 2 459 105 59 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 16 9 10 2 1 0 -3 45 25 0 3 3 15 5 10 -2 5 6 5 5 2 1 51 3 5 6 11 1 9 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-21 to 2021-01-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-20 93290 435031 7237 20572 8651 3425 14820 50010 1872 54637 71273 5545 4711 11615 2768 83681 13248 34141 9465 17485 10797 3257 3737 543 8924
2021-01-21 94500 438200 7288 20620 8760 3603 14990 51930 1872 54640 71450 5572 4738 11770 2831 84180 13380 34480 9650 17630 10940 3283 3826 544 9025
2021-01-22 95600 441700 7336 20670 8798 3670 15150 52710 1907 54850 72010 5599 4764 11870 2884 84670 13470 34840 9830 17680 11080 3309 3913 549 9072
2021-01-23 96600 444100 7385 20720 8807 3729 15320 53720 1922 54880 72090 5625 4790 11950 2936 85090 13560 35160 10020 17730 11090 3334 4002 550 9090
2021-01-24 97700 446000 7433 20760 8814 3775 15480 54310 1936 54880 72350 5650 4816 12030 2984 85420 13590 35290 10190 17780 11090 3359 4090 550 9098
2021-01-25 98700 448500 7481 20810 8910 3829 15640 55290 1956 55260 72680 5676 4842 12090 3030 85790 13640 35350 10370 17840 11090 3384 4181 556 9210
2021-01-26 99800 453700 7529 20850 8958 3885 15810 57110 1975 55670 73390 5701 4868 12200 3076 86390 13760 35640 10550 17940 11360 3410 4275 560 9281
2021-01-27 100900 457400 7577 20900 9001 3900 15970 58110 2009 55970 73660 5727 4894 12290 3121 86880 13860 36070 10730 18040 11540 3435 4370 578 9339

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-21 to 2021-01-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-20 212831 18416 17594 49792 152869 26857 57057 144371 39044 10042 66214 38854 24487 406147 253 6283 4441 11528 35060 5422 6721 863 1026 24578 12358 4394 1635 20285 9154 3565 3243 8383 13819 6638 530 14618 5979 6263 5638 8199 1387 1860 949 20664 3009 3863 41299 10409 3085 1832 19811 6328 1667 8351 33491 1069 5861 3936 6035 1836 550
2021-01-21 213700 18550 17660 50220 153100 27040 57130 144700 39040 10120 66610 39390 24650 409800 261 6358 4487 11740 35950 5506 6789 867 1031 24690 12360 4428 1665 20510 9255 3607 3278 8409 13890 6674 536 14860 6044 6320 5665 8314 1397 1887 966 20740 3035 3919 41480 10520 3108 1850 20080 6340 1685 8532 33980 1084 5911 4003 6049 1870 568
2021-01-22 214700 18690 17730 50610 153200 27270 57210 145800 39110 10190 67090 39900 24800 413400 268 6425 4522 11930 36540 5529 6820 871 1036 24850 12470 4443 1672 20620 9299 3706 3312 8435 13960 6722 551 14870 6066 6350 5722 8406 1405 1901 975 20880 3068 3961 41650 10580 3143 1868 20300 6413 1695 8599 34410 1093 5944 4022 6089 1901 568
2021-01-23 215700 18820 17790 51000 153400 27510 57280 146800 39170 10260 67600 40410 24960 416400 276 6487 4549 12080 36950 5546 6831 875 1041 25050 12580 4486 1675 20740 9334 3707 3347 8438 14030 6755 570 15030 6102 6370 5777 8502 1409 1901 990 20950 3097 4010 41820 10640 3173 1885 20470 6486 1702 8644 34720 1100 5992 4022 6182 1923 568
2021-01-24 216100 18960 17830 51350 153600 27690 57360 147200 39230 10320 68040 40910 25110 417900 284 6545 4569 12110 37240 5558 6831 878 1046 25160 12640 4487 1676 20790 9357 3711 3382 8525 14090 6774 575 15030 6138 6379 5812 8569 1410 1904 996 20960 3116 4027 41980 10690 3202 1902 20560 6582 1718 8689 34930 1102 6006 4022 6185 1933 568
2021-01-25 216600 19090 17880 51700 153700 27940 57430 147700 39300 10380 68470 41410 25270 419500 292 6603 4604 12130 37650 5567 6907 882 1051 25280 12670 4493 1680 20850 9385 3759 3417 8567 14160 6808 580 15060 6147 6385 5824 8573 1410 1913 996 20970 3138 4041 42140 10770 3210 1919 20640 6591 1723 8747 34970 1104 6012 4022 6202 1944 568
2021-01-26 217800 19230 17910 52050 153900 28220 57500 149100 39360 10430 68990 41910 25420 422800 300 6661 4645 12230 38270 5574 6919 886 1056 25430 12850 4515 1703 20910 9494 3779 3453 8631 14220 6848 588 15100 6153 6451 5882 8625 1413 1919 1001 21060 3157 4061 42310 10830 3246 1936 20790 6609 1723 8816 35300 1112 6075 4046 6256 1978 594
2021-01-27 219000 19360 17930 52430 154100 28490 57580 150500 39430 10490 69500 42410 25580 426700 308 6719 4698 12440 38810 5610 6967 890 1061 25560 12980 4564 1705 21030 9555 3834 3489 8679 14290 6903 594 15160 6193 6566 5931 8696 1415 1936 1012 21180 3186 4122 42470 10920 3290 1953 21150 6670 1726 8908 35690 1120 6132 4058 6309 2004 594

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-21 to 2021-01-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-20 93290 435031 7237 20572 8651 3425 14820 50010 1872 54637 71273 5545 4711 11615 2768 83681 13248 34141 9465 17485 10797 3257 3737 543 8924
2021-01-21 94800 438800 7285 20610 8689 3447 14990 51150 1898 54950 71580 5570 4746 11710 2824 84160 13320 34470 9660 17560 11040 3282 3834 546 8978
2021-01-22 96000 442000 7332 20650 8731 3493 15160 51670 1934 55150 72020 5594 4774 11810 2866 84620 13400 34780 9830 17620 11160 3306 3929 550 9024
2021-01-23 97200 444700 7378 20680 8757 3535 15330 52340 1966 55260 72230 5618 4804 11900 2908 85050 13480 35060 10000 17680 11220 3330 3993 552 9048
2021-01-24 98300 447000 7422 20720 8783 3555 15490 52790 1997 55360 72540 5643 4831 11980 2948 85410 13530 35260 10170 17730 11270 3354 4075 553 9067
2021-01-25 99300 449900 7466 20750 8859 3664 15640 53540 2030 55640 72860 5667 4859 12070 2990 85810 13580 35410 10340 17790 11320 3378 4189 557 9162
2021-01-26 100600 454000 7514 20790 8916 3731 15820 54760 2064 55900 73390 5692 4886 12170 3031 86370 13710 35690 10510 17880 11480 3402 4305 559 9236
2021-01-27 101900 457600 7563 20820 8973 3787 16000 55850 2103 56090 73690 5717 4911 12270 3074 86860 13830 36050 10690 17960 11620 3427 4409 574 9294

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-21 to 2021-01-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-20 212831 18416 17594 49792 152869 26857 57057 144371 39044 10042 66214 38854 24487 406147 253 6283 4441 11528 35060 5422 6721 863 1026 24578 12358 4394 1635 20285 9154 3565 3243 8383 13819 6638 530 14618 5979 6263 5638 8199 1387 1860 949 20664 3009 3863 41299 10409 3085 1832 19811 6328 1667 8351 33491 1069 5861 3936 6035 1836 550
2021-01-21 214100 18550 17660 50180 153000 27110 57120 145600 39110 10100 66740 39430 24640 409700 261 6370 4481 11690 35720 5448 6750 868 1030 24760 12510 4416 1657 20380 9208 3583 3280 8441 13880 6684 540 14710 6016 6318 5671 8274 1392 1876 959 20710 3037 3913 41480 10500 3122 1848 20090 6370 1679 8421 33970 1076 5914 3954 6083 1861 559
2021-01-22 215000 18690 17710 50540 153200 27330 57160 146600 39190 10150 67220 39950 24800 412600 263 6453 4516 11850 36330 5474 6781 871 1035 24900 12610 4434 1664 20490 9253 3637 3312 8477 13950 6728 553 14760 6039 6351 5722 8359 1398 1888 968 20790 3065 3952 41650 10540 3154 1865 20310 6435 1690 8492 34390 1084 5948 3977 6114 1889 561
2021-01-23 215900 18820 17760 50880 153400 27560 57200 147600 39230 10190 67700 40440 24950 415200 265 6532 4549 11990 36770 5495 6803 874 1040 25080 12720 4466 1668 20600 9291 3662 3344 8503 14020 6764 566 14880 6076 6383 5775 8464 1402 1892 983 20830 3092 4000 41810 10590 3185 1887 20500 6502 1699 8556 34610 1091 5991 3980 6199 1912 562
2021-01-24 216500 18960 17800 51190 153500 27740 57230 148100 39270 10240 68150 40910 25100 416400 267 6611 4579 12080 37020 5510 6820 877 1044 25190 12790 4478 1671 20660 9312 3687 3376 8572 14080 6793 575 14920 6112 6407 5812 8532 1405 1898 988 20850 3113 4020 41970 10630 3215 1902 20640 6585 1714 8620 34800 1096 6018 3983 6204 1929 564
2021-01-25 217000 19100 17840 51490 153700 27930 57270 148500 39310 10280 68590 41370 25260 417500 269 6686 4615 12160 37370 5528 6874 881 1049 25310 12840 4492 1678 20740 9348 3725 3408 8615 14150 6829 583 14980 6120 6429 5825 8547 1408 1907 989 20850 3137 4039 42120 10700 3228 1917 20770 6613 1721 8693 34880 1101 6041 3986 6216 1946 568
2021-01-26 218000 19250 17870 51780 153900 28160 57310 149700 39350 10330 69070 41910 25410 420200 272 6763 4653 12310 38150 5555 6902 884 1054 25420 12950 4524 1694 20840 9476 3766 3441 8665 14220 6869 594 15080 6134 6507 5895 8605 1413 1918 997 20910 3160 4077 42280 10760 3258 1934 20960 6643 1727 8789 35050 1109 6088 4026 6251 1979 594
2021-01-27 219100 19400 17890 52100 154000 28390 57350 150900 39390 10370 69550 42470 25570 423400 274 6850 4698 12490 38820 5597 6951 888 1058 25560 13050 4554 1701 20980 9537 3833 3474 8711 14280 6915 603 15160 6185 6564 5936 8714 1416 1933 1009 20990 3185 4138 42430 10850 3302 1955 21270 6700 1736 8896 35410 1119 6136 4070 6294 2011 597

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths