COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-02-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-02-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-01-2812-1711-0412-022021-01-0411-042021-01-142021-01-1511-0412-2111-1611-2912-1912-112021-01-1912-012021-01-0411-27 --11-272021-01-1912-04 --12-0211-16
Peak daily increment 3707 112 208 142 236 207 845 38 931 6 603 101 76 164 55 723 98 492 164 116 52 5 96
Days since peak 4 46 89 61 28 89 18 17 89 42 77 64 44 52 13 62 28 66 66 13 59 61 77
Last total 106564 473883 7778 21124 9142 3831 16392 58059 2145 59081 677 76128 5829 5054 12578 3317 88845 14025 37222 12757 18402 11591 3522 4711 567 9452
Last daily increment 406 3405 57 32 97 32 84 896 20 762 6 455 33 27 54 10 329 27 42 275 67 0 19 69 3 71
Last week 6402 19543 263 245 226 181 774 4440 115 2287 22 2403 137 172 465 251 2423 360 1557 1745 464 344 116 451 17 248
Previous peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-0504-11 --04-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-0305-0304-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 957 3091 20 322 5 7 226 15 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 30 25 101 8 60
Low between peaks -745 0 -105 2 -2 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 10 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-02-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-01-282021-01-1507-172021-01-2809-122021-01-2711-1810-0507-2309-1412-172021-01-1912-262021-01-282021-01-20 --12-142021-01-19 --12-092021-01-0412-2610-30 --11-032021-01-2612-1112-1012-1012-302021-01-13 --11-1608-202021-01-222021-01-0812-0712-1112-15 -- -- --12-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-142021-01-1612-07 --12-152021-01-14 --12-03 --2021-01-1912-1009-1512-2912-082021-01-142021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 1127 145 787 401 1159 325 473 1833 2944 159 552 554 253 3476 11 43 153 151 38 4 8 358 53 310 18 148 81 211 147 106 43 22 126 63 61 27 25 26 1568 31 41 190 82 23 206 23 334 9 72 82 60 25 11
Days since peak 151 4 17 199 4 142 5 75 119 193 140 46 13 37 4 12 49 13 54 28 37 94 90 6 52 53 53 33 19 77 165 10 24 56 52 48 54 60 248 221 47 18 16 56 48 18 60 13 53 139 34 55 18 25
Last total 909 225099 20145 18537 54272 154486 30277 58038 159100 41026 10807 72456 44399 26117 443355 262 7688 4895 13124 41402 5641 7111 916 1101 26685 13811 407 4906 1735 19259 9613 3797 3780 8912 14597 7107 595 15377 6202 6604 6056 1234 9342 1422 1912 1055 21513 3295 4278 43474 11230 3564 1958 21651 7283 1778 9486 37245 1169 6474 4314 6436 2028 596
Last daily increment 0 595 140 85 289 94 279 79 564 0 58 427 235 124 2031 0 0 27 4 474 1 72 3 11 206 43 0 5 10 16 15 30 35 53 30 23 5 10 2 3 11 1 7 0 0 2 29 12 8 168 55 17 1 34 241 0 99 171 2 10 33 2 4 0
Last week 0 6221 753 514 2144 762 1809 478 7084 919 421 3065 2602 773 18103 2 792 205 676 3134 124 183 28 36 1012 761 9 414 47 376 181 184 285 291 388 214 37 229 96 85 204 49 566 7 12 62 408 124 190 1093 374 241 54 833 705 73 555 1825 36 300 151 172 100 0
Previous peak date --07-2104-29 --08-2306-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-1411-2409-1609-1507-2108-0704-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-2210-2105-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2904-3008-26 -- -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-2904-16 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-27 --04-2204-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 318 1662 144 90 323 120 2234 4 100 124 78 137 72 106 11 47 175 66 6 14 20 112 98 13 64 459 56 137 23 17 31 41 321 9 18 3562 76 7 137 48 2 459 105 59 27
Low between peaks 371 3 125 388 54 20 58 16 536 1 10 6 2 1 0 -3 25 0 3 3 15 5 10 -2 5 6 5 5 1 51 3 5 6 11 13 1 70 9 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-02-01 106564 473883 7778 21124 9142 3831 16392 58059 2145 59081 677 76128 5829 5054 12578 3317 88845 14025 37222 12757 18402 11591 3522 4711 9452
2021-02-02 108200 477800 7820 21170 9196 3895 16520 58960 2163 59150 680 76540 5853 5085 12650 3358 89510 14160 37580 13040 18480 11810 3544 4795 9531
2021-02-03 109900 481500 7863 21210 9218 3924 16650 59790 2181 59550 685 76820 5876 5116 12730 3400 89930 14220 37960 13330 18560 12020 3565 4875 9576
2021-02-04 111100 485100 7904 21250 9255 3964 16780 60920 2199 59970 689 76910 5900 5146 12810 3437 90360 14280 38290 13610 18640 12160 3586 4953 9617
2021-02-05 112300 488800 7946 21290 9298 3990 16910 61380 2217 60280 696 77870 5923 5175 12880 3476 90790 14340 38590 13890 18710 12220 3607 5031 9659
2021-02-06 113500 491300 7988 21340 9317 4026 17040 62050 2235 60410 696 78040 5946 5205 12960 3514 91210 14420 38880 14170 18780 12220 3628 5110 9678
2021-02-07 114000 492600 8030 21380 9321 4047 17180 62130 2253 60410 696 78200 5969 5235 13030 3553 91410 14440 38960 14460 18830 12220 3650 5189 9683
2021-02-08 114300 495600 8073 21420 9400 4073 17310 62880 2271 61080 701 78630 5992 5265 13110 3591 91740 14460 38990 14740 18900 12220 3671 5269 9753

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-02-01 225099 20145 18537 54272 154486 30277 58038 159100 41026 10807 72456 44399 26117 443355 7688 4895 13124 41402 5641 7111 916 1101 26685 13811 4906 1735 19259 9613 3797 3780 8912 14597 7107 595 15377 6202 6604 6056 1234 9342 1055 21513 3295 4278 43474 11230 3564 1958 21651 7283 1778 9486 37245 1169 6474 4314 6436 2028
2021-02-02 226000 20320 18540 54600 154600 30550 58120 160100 41160 10870 73020 45250 26240 447000 7749 4946 13340 41970 5644 7125 920 1106 26870 13990 4906 1751 19390 9728 3807 3823 8957 14670 7163 602 15510 6241 6705 6125 1241 9382 1056 21620 3330 4336 43650 11330 3590 1968 21940 7283 1778 9570 37570 1183 6537 4348 6522 2064
2021-02-03 227300 20430 18560 54930 154800 30820 58190 161300 41290 10930 73570 45920 26360 450700 7984 5000 13520 42530 5668 7161 925 1111 27020 14150 4925 1766 19460 9759 3892 3866 9015 14730 7215 610 15510 6257 6750 6178 1249 9496 1067 21730 3354 4383 43810 11390 3649 1980 22180 7401 1801 9650 37980 1188 6592 4375 6560 2084
2021-02-04 228500 20580 18690 55260 154900 31080 58270 162500 41410 10980 74110 46450 26480 454400 8134 5039 13700 43240 5678 7194 929 1116 27200 14310 4960 1776 19550 9789 3893 3908 9065 14790 7251 617 15610 6272 6763 6197 1256 9621 1080 21790 3380 4428 43970 11470 3687 1991 22390 7583 1818 9730 38390 1192 6667 4419 6591 2105
2021-02-05 229500 20720 18760 55580 155000 31340 58350 163400 41520 11040 74590 46960 26600 457700 8297 5079 13880 43850 5695 7221 933 1121 27420 14450 4993 1782 19620 9826 3956 3950 9112 14850 7295 624 15620 6296 6777 6238 1264 9733 1092 21870 3404 4465 44130 11530 3731 2002 22540 7641 1825 9810 38730 1212 6719 4459 6635 2123
2021-02-06 230700 20830 18830 55910 155100 31590 58420 164400 41640 11090 75070 47290 26720 460500 8338 5090 13970 44280 5715 7221 937 1126 27530 14630 5039 1782 19690 9871 3976 3993 9112 14910 7328 631 15740 6317 6794 6277 1272 9761 1099 21930 3425 4513 44290 11590 3761 2014 22690 7730 1831 9890 38970 1217 6781 4460 6692 2135
2021-02-07 231100 20910 18920 56240 155300 31850 58500 164500 41750 11150 75520 47440 26840 461800 8422 5116 13970 44470 5728 7221 941 1131 27650 14630 5134 1782 19710 9871 3984 4036 9169 14970 7343 638 15740 6329 6794 6294 1279 9915 1108 21940 3442 4513 44440 11630 3803 2025 22720 7795 1838 9970 39100 1218 6788 4460 6692 2141
2021-02-08 231600 21040 19000 56560 155400 32110 58570 165000 41870 11210 75920 47650 26960 463600 8422 5146 13980 44870 5729 7276 945 1136 27820 14630 5148 1790 19720 9877 3994 4080 9210 15020 7367 645 15740 6333 6801 6305 1287 9915 1109 21960 3455 4514 44600 11680 3814 2037 22750 7931 1839 10050 39240 1220 6792 4479 6692 2145

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-02-01 106564 473883 7778 21124 9142 3831 16392 58059 2145 59081 677 76128 5829 5054 12578 3317 88845 14025 37222 12757 18402 11591 3522 4711 9452
2021-02-02 107700 477500 7823 21160 9180 3856 16510 58840 2164 59480 679 76630 5851 5080 12650 3349 89300 14100 37440 13050 18480 11720 3541 4813 9495
2021-02-03 109200 481000 7866 21200 9210 3892 16640 59680 2186 59850 683 76970 5872 5107 12720 3392 89730 14170 37780 13350 18550 11940 3562 4897 9538
2021-02-04 110400 484400 7908 21230 9246 3931 16780 60780 2209 60220 687 77210 5892 5135 12800 3435 90170 14240 38090 13660 18620 12080 3584 4974 9576
2021-02-05 111600 487900 7952 21260 9284 3947 16910 61260 2231 60550 692 77900 5912 5162 12870 3478 90590 14290 38390 13960 18690 12160 3605 5059 9618
2021-02-06 112800 490700 7998 21300 9316 4023 17050 61870 2253 60790 694 78160 5932 5187 12950 3521 91030 14380 38710 14280 18750 12210 3627 5138 9643
2021-02-07 113800 493100 8042 21330 9343 4062 17180 62130 2276 61010 695 78440 5952 5212 13020 3566 91380 14410 38930 14600 18810 12240 3649 5224 9661
2021-02-08 114700 496200 8085 21360 9401 4108 17310 62800 2299 61410 701 78820 5972 5240 13100 3610 91780 14450 39110 14920 18860 12280 3670 5301 9733

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-02-01 225099 20145 18537 54272 154486 30277 58038 159100 41026 10807 72456 44399 26117 443355 7688 4895 13124 41402 5641 7111 916 1101 26685 13811 4906 1735 19259 9613 3797 3780 8912 14597 7107 595 15377 6202 6604 6056 1234 9342 1055 21513 3295 4278 43474 11230 3564 1958 21651 7283 1778 9486 37245 1169 6474 4314 6436 2028
2021-02-02 226100 20280 18600 54600 154600 30600 58090 160500 41200 10880 72960 44880 26240 446500 7808 4928 13230 42090 5647 7132 920 1109 26870 13960 4967 1743 19320 9689 3810 3823 8955 14650 7143 601 15410 6204 6657 6121 1245 9398 1060 21580 3310 4317 43630 11300 3598 1968 21780 7358 1781 9600 37550 1176 6533 4340 6488 2048
2021-02-03 227300 20400 18640 54960 154700 30900 58130 162000 41300 10940 73490 45450 26360 449800 7981 4972 13390 42640 5671 7167 925 1113 27020 14110 4996 1757 19390 9724 3862 3867 9006 14710 7189 606 15450 6223 6686 6175 1255 9510 1071 21650 3334 4364 43790 11360 3652 1982 22000 7445 1797 9700 37970 1182 6584 4370 6527 2068
2021-02-04 228500 20540 18720 55310 154800 31250 58170 163400 41380 11000 74010 45950 26480 452900 8114 5011 13540 43350 5686 7199 929 1118 27200 14260 5028 1766 19480 9757 3873 3912 9053 14770 7228 610 15530 6241 6707 6199 1264 9637 1084 21690 3359 4407 43940 11430 3692 1994 22200 7602 1811 9790 38380 1188 6645 4412 6558 2088
2021-02-05 229500 20680 18790 55660 155000 31480 58210 164600 41500 11060 74520 46440 26600 455700 8259 5050 13690 43950 5706 7228 933 1122 27410 14400 5062 1772 19550 9794 3904 3956 9099 14830 7271 613 15560 6268 6728 6240 1275 9752 1096 21740 3383 4444 44090 11480 3738 2007 22360 7653 1820 9860 38730 1201 6696 4448 6600 2107
2021-02-06 230600 20800 18840 56020 155100 31690 58250 165900 41590 11110 75020 46870 26720 458000 8340 5075 13800 44460 5726 7243 936 1127 27540 14570 5100 1776 19620 9839 3924 4001 9122 14890 7309 623 15660 6292 6755 6287 1285 9798 1103 21790 3408 4492 44240 11540 3775 2023 22530 7714 1828 9930 39000 1208 6751 4456 6662 2123
2021-02-07 231300 20900 18900 56370 155200 31910 58290 166600 41700 11170 75510 47250 26840 459400 8422 5109 13900 44720 5744 7258 940 1131 27680 14630 5132 1780 19660 9866 3939 4046 9180 14950 7342 626 15700 6317 6777 6320 1293 9931 1109 21800 3432 4504 44380 11570 3816 2035 22660 7772 1838 10000 39180 1213 6778 4463 6670 2138
2021-02-08 231900 21030 18950 56720 155300 32170 58320 167200 41770 11230 75990 47640 26960 460800 8487 5147 13960 45140 5752 7306 944 1135 27840 14690 5149 1789 19710 9883 3957 4092 9221 15010 7378 630 15750 6323 6796 6330 1300 9939 1109 21810 3453 4513 44530 11620 3839 2047 22780 7821 1844 10070 39350 1219 6803 4479 6679 2148

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths