COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-02-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-02-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-2611-2612-1711-0412-0212-2811-042021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-1611-2912-1912-112021-01-1912-012021-01-0411-272021-01-3111-272021-01-2012-04 --2021-01-1311-16
Peak daily increment 1255 3529 112 208 142 55 207 839 40 931 6 603 101 76 164 54 723 100 492 309 164 115 52 5 96
Days since peak 9 70 49 92 64 38 92 22 20 92 45 80 67 47 55 16 65 31 69 4 69 15 62 22 80
Last total 110250 485472 7936 21260 9272 3916 16826 60634 2184 60802 688 77205 5903 5106 12832 3586 90241 14234 38344 13482 18675 12028 3580 4976 582 9556
Last daily increment 915 3278 34 44 54 29 143 858 14 432 3 -4 25 18 93 74 421 65 447 225 75 89 16 87 8 26
Last week 5879 19269 278 242 264 164 754 4348 100 2483 17 1967 139 134 458 372 2383 362 1564 1596 479 437 112 481 18 202
Previous peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-05 -- --04-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 957 3091 20 322 5 226 15 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 101 8 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 2 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 3 10 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-02-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --2021-01-1407-172021-01-2609-122021-01-2711-182021-01-2607-2309-1412-202021-01-1912-26 --2021-01-20 --12-142021-01-16 --12-092021-01-042021-01-2810-30 --2021-01-252021-01-2612-1112-1012-10 --2021-01-13 --11-1608-2012-172021-01-0812-0712-11 --2021-01-14 -- --12-0912-0305-2906-2512-16 --2021-01-16 --2021-01-3112-152021-01-13 --12-03 --2021-01-1912-1009-1512-2912-082021-01-042021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 144 787 388 1159 298 473 1283 2944 159 551 549 253 12 43 152 151 40 5 8 138 45 310 18 148 211 147 106 43 20 126 63 44 27 25 26 1568 31 190 42 23 205 23 332 9 72 82 60 26 11
Days since peak 154 21 202 9 145 8 78 9 196 143 46 16 40 15 52 19 57 31 7 97 10 9 55 56 56 22 80 168 49 27 59 55 21 57 63 251 224 50 19 4 51 22 63 16 56 142 37 58 31 28
Last total 909 228795 20486 18731 55131 154823 31001 58256 161240 41538 10997 74005 45605 26467 455874 279 8365 5009 13752 43120 5682 7177 932 1135 27247 14306 413 5033 1747 19444 11191 3872 3921 9044 14774 7203 630 15564 6251 6956 6182 1308 9728 1422 1944 1081 21793 3355 4424 43961 11509 3681 1991 22048 7487 1788 9916 38453 1198 6650 4412 6545 2080 624
Last daily increment 0 1232 125 155 254 120 231 67 0 0 55 508 261 113 5077 0 162 24 176 636 18 28 6 5 228 162 2 58 -1 69 1478 0 58 38 76 29 3 81 17 24 24 5 150 0 21 9 100 17 51 153 79 27 0 129 93 6 164 414 8 75 28 49 22 0
Last week 0 6129 685 474 1847 676 1483 449 4661 1054 397 2951 1972 731 19075 17 799 178 730 2882 88 138 25 57 993 763 9 456 22 306 1642 105 253 243 340 173 60 311 83 370 199 81 571 3 31 46 410 107 206 1003 439 210 53 611 545 20 701 1803 37 271 131 155 74 28
Previous peak date --07-2204-29 --08-2306-16 --03-2110-05 --07-12 --07-2204-1504-1311-2409-1609-1507-2108-0704-2404-2004-2906-2308-0711-0310-2105-2109-0905-1212-09 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2904-3008-2611-2105-29 --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1805-1804-2904-17 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-27 --04-2204-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 186 318 1662 144 1833 90 323 120 2219 4 98 124 78 137 72 106 11 47 175 358 6 14 20 112 84 13 64 459 56 137 23 17 31 14 22 41 321 9 18 3562 74 8 137 44 2 459 105 59 27
Low between peaks 3 125 388 54 343 20 58 16 1 10 6 2 1 0 -3 32 0 3 3 15 10 -2 5 6 5 11 1 51 3 6 1 13 1 70 9 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-02-04 110250 485472 7936 21260 9272 3916 16826 60634 2184 60802 77205 5903 5106 12832 3586 90241 14234 38344 13482 18675 12028 3580 4976 9556
2021-02-05 111300 489700 7982 21300 9317 3943 16920 61510 2205 60800 78050 5928 5131 12910 3590 90830 14340 38670 13740 18740 12240 3601 5057 9659
2021-02-06 112200 492300 8026 21350 9326 3970 17000 62110 2226 60800 78210 5953 5156 12990 3667 91220 14410 38980 13990 18810 12240 3622 5138 9668
2021-02-07 112400 493700 8070 21390 9337 3996 17040 62230 2246 60800 78390 5978 5180 13060 3691 91440 14440 39070 14240 18870 12240 3642 5218 9672
2021-02-08 112500 496700 8114 21430 9417 4022 17080 63020 2267 60980 78780 6002 5204 13140 3697 91770 14460 39100 14490 18930 12240 3662 5297 9743
2021-02-09 113600 500900 8157 21470 9453 4048 17200 63940 2287 61310 79400 6026 5229 13210 3784 92240 14540 39360 14750 19030 12390 3682 5377 9782
2021-02-10 114800 504600 8201 21510 9489 4073 17300 64660 2308 61650 79720 6050 5254 13290 3868 92670 14590 39740 15010 19120 12580 3703 5458 9820
2021-02-11 115800 507900 8245 21550 9538 4099 17440 65560 2329 62080 79760 6074 5278 13360 3928 93100 14660 40140 15260 19190 12670 3723 5539 9850

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-04 228795 20486 18731 55131 154823 31001 58256 161240 41538 10997 74005 45605 26467 455874 8365 5009 13752 43120 5682 7177 932 1135 27247 14306 5033 1747 19444 11191 3872 3921 9044 14774 7203 630 15564 6251 6956 6182 1308 9728 1944 1081 21793 3355 4424 43961 11509 3681 1991 22048 7487 1788 9916 38453 1198 6650 4412 6545 2080 624
2021-02-05 229800 20700 18750 55410 155000 31270 58330 163600 41690 11060 74620 45970 26590 459100 8524 5080 13980 43780 5714 7251 937 1141 27460 14440 5034 1772 19590 11190 3965 3969 9108 14830 7276 630 15630 6295 6956 6239 1318 9770 1950 1092 21900 3401 4468 44130 11580 3733 2001 22420 7554 1810 10050 38850 1216 6715 4465 6606 2116 627
2021-02-06 231100 20800 18830 55680 155100 31530 58410 164900 41830 11120 75110 45970 26700 461900 8677 5090 14070 44240 5735 7251 941 1147 27580 14650 5095 1772 19650 11440 3965 4016 9108 14890 7307 646 15750 6310 6973 6273 1325 9840 1955 1100 21960 3421 4514 44290 11630 3768 2011 22530 7614 1816 10180 39120 1222 6784 4465 6647 2125 627
2021-02-07 231600 20880 18930 55950 155200 31790 58480 165200 41970 11180 75540 45970 26820 463500 8837 5117 14090 44440 5751 7251 946 1153 27700 14650 5158 1772 19670 11680 3965 4062 9164 14950 7322 646 15750 6323 6976 6293 1328 9920 1961 1109 21970 3438 4516 44440 11660 3809 2021 22560 7675 1822 10320 39250 1223 6790 4465 6647 2134 627
2021-02-08 232100 21000 19000 56220 155400 32050 58560 165900 42100 11240 75930 45970 26940 465300 8993 5147 14090 44830 5753 7314 950 1159 27870 14670 5170 1779 19680 11890 3965 4109 9207 15000 7345 648 15750 6324 6981 6299 1328 9990 1967 1109 21990 3449 4519 44590 11700 3822 2032 22590 7733 1823 10440 39410 1224 6796 4486 6647 2138 627
2021-02-09 233300 21110 19020 56490 155500 32310 58630 166600 42230 11290 76430 45990 27050 468700 9152 5187 14300 45420 5759 7324 954 1164 28020 14870 5170 1789 19740 12100 3965 4156 9246 15060 7372 665 15810 6328 7165 6367 1340 10070 1973 1110 22070 3464 4562 44750 11740 3857 2042 22730 7791 1823 10580 39750 1236 6849 4494 6668 2151 649
2021-02-10 234500 21220 19040 56760 155600 32580 58700 168100 42360 11350 76940 46240 27170 472500 9314 5229 14500 45960 5777 7354 958 1170 28190 15000 5202 1796 19800 12350 4025 4204 9296 15110 7416 672 15820 6346 7246 6399 1374 10150 1979 1123 22180 3487 4610 44900 11790 3909 2052 22890 7848 1831 10710 40160 1241 6906 4546 6683 2171 649
2021-02-11 235600 21350 19180 57030 155700 32840 58780 168400 42490 11410 77450 46590 27280 477000 9479 5259 14660 46610 5795 7382 963 1175 28390 15140 5250 1799 19880 13800 4025 4252 9338 15170 7448 674 15920 6364 7259 6427 1384 10230 1985 1133 22260 3507 4659 45050 11850 3938 2063 23040 7905 1839 10840 40560 1249 6976 4585 6726 2191 649

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-02-04 110250 485472 7936 21260 9272 3916 16826 60634 2184 60802 77205 5903 5106 12832 3586 90241 14234 38344 13482 18675 12028 3580 4976 9556
2021-02-05 111300 489100 7982 21300 9316 3939 16940 61150 2201 61250 77890 5926 5127 12910 3650 90670 14290 38670 13740 18750 12090 3599 5064 9596
2021-02-06 112400 491900 8026 21330 9341 3964 17060 61760 2220 61530 78170 5948 5152 12980 3706 91070 14360 38930 14040 18820 12090 3619 5151 9612
2021-02-07 113200 493900 8066 21360 9364 3987 17150 61930 2239 61780 78460 5969 5176 13050 3755 91350 14390 39090 14340 18870 12100 3638 5239 9624
2021-02-08 113800 497000 8109 21390 9422 4014 17250 62650 2258 62290 78850 5990 5202 13120 3802 91690 14410 39210 14640 18930 12110 3658 5327 9683
2021-02-09 115100 500800 8155 21420 9460 4036 17380 63540 2278 62740 79340 6011 5224 13190 3859 92170 14490 39460 14950 19010 12220 3678 5417 9722
2021-02-10 116400 504200 8199 21450 9497 4065 17510 64290 2297 63100 79670 6033 5248 13260 3917 92620 14550 39770 15270 19070 12400 3698 5509 9765
2021-02-11 117600 507600 8240 21480 9537 4095 17650 65320 2317 63560 79890 6054 5275 13340 3972 93060 14620 40070 15600 19130 12520 3718 5601 9804

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-04 228795 20486 18731 55131 154823 31001 58256 161240 41538 10997 74005 45605 26467 455874 8365 5009 13752 43120 5682 7177 932 1135 27247 14306 5033 1747 19444 11191 3872 3921 9044 14774 7203 630 15564 6251 6956 6182 1308 9728 1944 1081 21793 3355 4424 43961 11509 3681 1991 22048 7487 1788 9916 38453 1198 6650 4412 6545 2080 624
2021-02-05 229900 20620 18810 55430 154900 31200 58310 162300 41660 11060 74500 45920 26580 459500 8547 5046 13930 43750 5700 7203 937 1144 27460 14450 5082 1750 19510 11700 3920 3970 9088 14840 7240 637 15580 6272 7004 6224 1330 9840 1950 1093 21870 3376 4465 44120 11580 3725 1998 22160 7563 1793 10040 38810 1212 6709 4450 6591 2097 626
2021-02-06 231000 20720 18870 55750 155000 31430 58350 163700 41790 11120 74990 46230 26700 461800 8662 5068 14040 44190 5718 7215 940 1150 27590 14640 5129 1752 19570 11870 3940 4017 9109 14890 7273 646 15660 6290 7037 6260 1343 9920 1952 1100 21910 3396 4512 44270 11630 3759 2012 22260 7642 1800 10140 39050 1218 6766 4453 6640 2107 628
2021-02-07 231600 20800 18940 56050 155200 31670 58380 164100 41910 11180 75450 46480 26810 462900 8781 5099 14110 44370 5733 7226 944 1155 27710 14690 5198 1753 19600 12030 3960 4064 9159 14950 7298 650 15680 6304 7066 6284 1352 10030 1955 1108 21920 3414 4521 44420 11660 3799 2021 22320 7716 1807 10230 39180 1223 6794 4456 6641 2118 629
2021-02-08 232200 20920 19010 56340 155300 31940 58420 164600 41990 11240 75890 46750 26920 464200 8889 5130 14170 44760 5738 7271 948 1161 27890 14750 5224 1760 19630 12210 3983 4111 9201 15010 7327 653 15700 6305 7093 6294 1358 10090 1957 1109 21930 3429 4529 44570 11690 3818 2031 22370 7808 1812 10330 39310 1227 6820 4469 6643 2124 630
2021-02-09 233200 21040 19040 56660 155400 32230 58460 165500 42080 11300 76390 47200 27040 466800 9024 5168 14320 45350 5745 7288 951 1167 28050 14930 5245 1768 19680 12440 4001 4159 9242 15060 7360 663 15750 6312 7177 6360 1370 10170 1964 1109 21980 3448 4566 44710 11740 3854 2042 22490 7868 1816 10420 39640 1236 6871 4480 6679 2138 651
2021-02-10 234300 21160 19060 56990 155500 32510 58500 167000 42200 11360 76910 47670 27150 469700 9166 5210 14480 45880 5762 7320 956 1173 28210 15070 5269 1779 19760 12660 4042 4207 9291 15120 7404 669 15780 6334 7234 6399 1393 10270 1972 1120 22030 3473 4620 44850 11790 3906 2053 22670 7946 1827 10520 40050 1243 6923 4518 6711 2157 654
2021-02-11 235400 21310 19140 57300 155600 32860 58530 168300 42290 11420 77440 48160 27270 472600 9298 5249 14620 46560 5778 7352 960 1178 28390 15220 5298 1788 19840 13020 4064 4256 9338 15180 7442 673 15860 6352 7265 6425 1403 10370 1975 1131 22070 3497 4665 44990 11850 3944 2063 22840 8037 1840 10620 40430 1249 6983 4557 6743 2176 657

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths