COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-03-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-03-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-0412-0212-2811-042021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-1711-2912-1912-112021-01-1912-012021-01-0811-272021-01-2911-272021-01-2012-04 --2021-01-1311-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 142 55 207 857 38 931 6 596 101 76 164 56 723 99 492 283 164 140 52 6 96
Days since peak 41 95 74 117 89 63 117 47 45 117 70 104 92 72 80 41 90 52 94 31 94 40 87 47 105
Last total 122953 547174 8574 22106 10308 4490 20469 70514 2365 69609 750 86347 6534 5537 15058 4319 97945 15584 43793 16351 20403 12826 3854 7270 623 9988
Last daily increment 104 2123 13 29 117 20 130 362 4 467 8 367 30 11 84 0 246 21 24 34 53 0 18 81 1 22
Last week 1648 12403 140 150 330 119 932 1729 22 1530 16 1737 191 75 608 138 1597 241 1357 265 390 113 62 599 15 58
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1506-05 --04-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3091 20 322 5 10 226 15 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 101 8 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 2 0 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 3 10 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-03-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --2021-01-162021-02-112021-01-2209-122021-01-2711-182021-01-272021-02-112021-02-2012-172021-01-1412-262021-01-142021-01-202021-01-2912-142021-01-152021-01-2712-092021-01-112021-01-292021-02-242021-01-212021-01-252021-01-2612-1112-1012-102021-02-042021-01-132021-01-2911-1608-2012-172021-01-0812-0712-112021-01-202021-01-142021-02-032021-01-2812-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-162021-02-192021-01-292021-02-132021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-01-292021-01-2912-10 --12-2712-2912-082021-01-132021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 147 79 389 1159 316 473 1260 196 135 552 564 253 3266 13 139 43 154 545 151 38 5 17 178 137 47 310 18 148 1229 199 49 147 106 43 21 126 63 65 46 30 96 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 62 43 19 212 108 23 108 341 9 2 82 60 26 9
Days since peak 179 44 18 38 170 33 103 33 18 9 74 46 65 46 40 31 77 45 33 82 49 31 5 39 35 34 80 81 81 25 47 31 105 193 74 52 84 80 40 46 26 32 82 88 276 249 75 47 44 10 31 16 47 28 88 31 31 81 64 62 83 47 53
Last total 909 255720 22014 20660 59866 157248 36325 60181 186152 46494 12322 85025 50077 28638 514657 300 9931 5250 15979 52491 5952 7641 1019 1422 30999 16822 436 5472 1867 20536 12162 4700 4652 9628 16134 7817 703 16355 6486 7769 6681 1357 11254 1445 2076 1165 23273 3729 4957 47387 17346 4478 2212 23984 8562 1888 11202 43909 1340 8783 205 4965 7014 2300 671
Last daily increment 0 778 24 88 100 91 159 108 437 195 4 325 84 69 1566 10 2 7 -1 333 1 29 2 0 147 77 0 1 7 20 20 8 15 20 26 1 0 11 3 3 0 0 42 0 0 0 21 29 0 94 49 50 4 17 16 0 10 212 3 231 1 13 0 0 0
Last week 0 7191 253 509 748 681 1311 518 4343 1231 215 2359 664 425 11978 10 271 -127 329 2603 45 78 21 43 786 432 8 72 27 206 137 98 176 125 261 141 43 138 52 76 104 11 289 6 28 15 295 85 54 682 378 251 50 307 205 25 220 1388 52 1125 6 88 104 26 0
Previous peak date --07-2204-2907-1708-2306-16 --03-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2204-1504-1411-2409-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2105-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2911-0408-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1812-1704-1712-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 186 787 318 1662 144 1833 2944 159 323 120 2253 4 100 124 78 138 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 14 20 112 98 10 64 459 56 137 23 33 31 5 41 321 9 18 3562 195 8 23 137 45 2 459 64 12 59 27
Low between peaks 3 37 125 388 54 343 48 21 58 16 533 1 9 10 6 42 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 3 3 15 5 4 10 -2 5 6 5 13 11 2 1 51 3 5 6 -95 1 9 13 14 1 70 0 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-02 to 2021-03-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-03-01 122953 547174 8574 22106 10308 4490 20469 70514 2365 69609 86347 6534 5537 15058 4319 97945 15584 43793 16351 20403 12826 3854 7270 9988
2021-03-02 123600 551500 8596 22110 10310 4511 20590 71230 2370 70270 86960 6560 5549 15110 4365 98380 15700 43990 16370 20490 12830 3862 7360 10030
2021-03-03 123900 555100 8630 22130 10330 4541 20710 71820 2387 70790 87290 6569 5560 15190 4424 98730 15770 44330 16420 20560 12920 3876 7440 10050
2021-03-04 124100 558000 8658 22140 10370 4566 20830 72150 2398 71190 87540 6586 5572 15290 4463 99050 15820 44620 16450 20630 12920 3887 7524 10070
2021-03-05 124300 561200 8682 22150 10410 4589 20970 72710 2405 71570 88080 6605 5582 15390 4485 99310 15870 44840 16480 20690 12950 3897 7610 10080
2021-03-06 124500 563600 8706 22160 10430 4611 21140 72880 2413 71590 88270 6626 5593 15480 4501 99570 15920 45090 16510 20740 12960 3907 7696 10090
2021-03-07 124500 564800 8729 22170 10450 4631 21260 72880 2418 71590 88350 6649 5604 15540 4501 99720 15930 45170 16530 20790 12960 3916 7785 10090
2021-03-08 124500 566600 8751 22170 10550 4652 21380 73120 2423 72000 88670 6673 5615 15610 4503 99950 15950 45190 16550 20840 12970 3925 7874 10100

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-02 to 2021-03-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-03-01 255720 22014 20660 59866 157248 36325 60181 186152 46494 12322 85025 50077 28638 514657 9931 15979 52491 5952 7641 1019 1422 30999 16822 5472 1867 20536 12162 4700 4652 9628 16134 7817 703 16355 6486 7769 6681 11254 2076 23273 3729 4957 47387 17346 4478 2212 23984 8562 1888 11202 43909 1340 8783 4965 7014 2300
2021-03-02 256500 22080 20690 59980 157300 36530 60260 187900 46720 12340 85600 50430 28710 515800 10030 16160 52740 5972 7641 1022 1425 31220 17030 5487 1870 20600 12240 4702 4662 9651 16180 7843 703 16410 6491 7864 6709 11350 2083 23370 3741 5013 47480 17360 4478 2225 24110 8600 1889 11240 43910 1340 8985 5020 7046 2319
2021-03-03 257700 22120 20710 60130 157400 36730 60300 189200 46900 12360 86060 50660 28790 518200 10180 16270 53480 5987 7660 1026 1429 31370 17180 5523 1874 20650 12290 4800 4694 9691 16270 7878 708 16430 6505 7886 6739 11480 2091 23470 3760 5050 47570 17360 4502 2253 24250 8672 1891 11330 43970 1345 9139 5065 7067 2338
2021-03-04 259000 22170 20850 60260 157500 36930 60350 190200 47080 12380 86520 50850 28860 520100 10270 16430 53830 6001 7672 1029 1432 31510 17310 5550 1881 20710 12340 4800 4724 9720 16340 7939 717 16490 6517 7962 6750 11560 2099 23550 3775 5078 47660 17360 4532 2264 24350 8727 1900 11400 44030 1350 9303 5098 7109 2348
2021-03-05 260200 22230 20940 60390 157600 37130 60420 191200 47260 12400 86930 51000 28930 522200 10340 16530 54190 6016 7678 1032 1435 31670 17380 5571 1887 20760 12460 4833 4747 9748 16400 7952 717 16500 6529 7982 6772 11620 2112 23600 3790 5093 47750 17360 4546 2268 24410 8772 1906 11450 44180 1359 9465 5116 7117 2354
2021-03-06 261200 22260 21010 60510 157700 37330 60480 192100 47440 12430 87360 51160 29000 523900 10400 16600 54380 6026 7679 1035 1437 31790 17480 5591 1889 20800 12520 4837 4766 9752 16450 7968 717 16570 6540 7997 6799 11660 2117 23640 3804 5117 47840 17360 4590 2270 24440 8815 1912 11490 44250 1365 9628 5116 7129 2360
2021-03-07 261900 22280 21090 60620 157700 37520 60550 192400 47620 12460 87690 51190 29060 524600 10400 16600 54520 6032 7679 1037 1440 31880 17480 5608 1889 20820 12550 4837 4770 9769 16500 7974 717 16570 6546 7997 6801 11660 2117 23640 3807 5117 47920 17360 4630 2270 24490 8854 1915 11530 44260 1370 9796 5116 7129 2363
2021-03-08 262600 22310 21170 60730 157800 37720 60620 192800 47800 12480 87990 51280 29130 525800 10400 16600 54740 6035 7707 1040 1443 32000 17530 5624 1893 20840 12550 4857 4778 9788 16540 7982 718 16570 6548 7997 6804 11670 2118 23660 3828 5119 48010 17360 4666 2270 24520 8891 1916 11570 44420 1372 9966 5125 7129 2363

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-02 to 2021-03-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-03-01 122953 547174 8574 22106 10308 4490 20469 70514 2365 69609 86347 6534 5537 15058 4319 97945 15584 43793 16351 20403 12826 3854 7270 9988
2021-03-02 123300 549900 8598 22130 10360 4511 20640 70970 2371 70040 86730 6560 5547 15150 4346 98260 15660 43990 16390 20480 12880 3865 7360 10010
2021-03-03 123800 552400 8624 22160 10400 4532 20790 71500 2380 70450 87050 6580 5558 15240 4389 98560 15730 44290 16430 20540 12970 3875 7445 10020
2021-03-04 124200 554400 8647 22170 10440 4553 20930 71800 2387 70800 87320 6602 5569 15340 4420 98850 15770 44540 16460 20600 12990 3884 7532 10040
2021-03-05 124600 556800 8669 22190 10470 4575 21080 72320 2393 71130 87730 6626 5579 15440 4442 99110 15820 44770 16500 20650 13020 3893 7621 10040
2021-03-06 125100 558700 8690 22210 10500 4595 21240 72510 2399 71330 87990 6650 5589 15530 4467 99380 15880 45010 16530 20700 13040 3902 7712 10050
2021-03-07 125400 560200 8710 22230 10530 4613 21380 72580 2403 71520 88220 6674 5599 15600 4484 99590 15910 45170 16570 20750 13050 3911 7804 10060
2021-03-08 125800 562000 8730 22250 10590 4632 21500 72940 2408 71920 88540 6699 5612 15670 4498 99850 15940 45280 16600 20790 13070 3919 7897 10070

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-02 to 2021-03-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-03-01 255720 22014 20660 59866 157248 36325 60181 186152 46494 12322 85025 50077 28638 514657 9931 15979 52491 5952 7641 1019 1422 30999 16822 5472 1867 20536 12162 4700 4652 9628 16134 7817 703 16355 6486 7769 6681 11254 2076 23273 3729 4957 47387 17346 4478 2212 23984 8562 1888 11202 43909 1340 8783 4965 7014 2300
2021-03-02 257000 22060 20710 59980 157300 36560 60250 187300 46640 12350 85410 50240 28710 516300 9970 16080 52850 5961 7646 1022 1424 31150 16950 5477 1874 20560 12190 4706 4667 9646 16180 7831 704 16390 6488 7823 6713 11300 2080 23320 3743 4972 47480 17400 4515 2220 24040 8588 1889 11220 44130 1345 8965 4993 7044 2306
2021-03-03 258200 22100 20750 60100 157400 36760 60270 188300 46800 12390 85810 50380 28770 518100 10070 16190 53570 5972 7666 1024 1430 31290 17080 5497 1878 20600 12230 4773 4689 9673 16230 7854 710 16410 6497 7856 6736 11420 2087 23370 3756 4995 47580 17440 4540 2236 24120 8632 1892 11250 44380 1351 9118 5030 7062 2317
2021-03-04 259500 22150 20840 60220 157500 36970 60310 189100 46960 12430 86210 50510 28840 519500 10130 16320 53940 5983 7683 1026 1433 31420 17200 5513 1884 20640 12280 4793 4714 9696 16270 7892 717 16460 6507 7914 6744 11500 2093 23410 3768 5015 47670 17490 4565 2246 24190 8673 1897 11270 44590 1357 9272 5058 7100 2323
2021-03-05 260700 22190 20910 60340 157600 37190 60340 190000 47130 12470 86590 50630 28900 520900 10190 16420 54330 5994 7696 1028 1437 31570 17290 5529 1890 20690 12350 4827 4736 9719 16310 7907 719 16480 6519 7942 6762 11560 2103 23440 3781 5027 47760 17530 4583 2252 24240 8711 1903 11290 44840 1365 9430 5074 7108 2328
2021-03-06 261800 22230 20970 60460 157700 37370 60370 190900 47270 12510 87010 50770 28970 521900 10250 16510 54520 6005 7707 1030 1439 31690 17400 5548 1892 20730 12370 4850 4759 9730 16350 7924 721 16530 6529 7971 6788 11610 2108 23460 3794 5052 47850 17560 4616 2257 24290 8744 1908 11310 44970 1371 9592 5081 7118 2335
2021-03-07 262500 22250 21030 60570 157800 37550 60410 191200 47440 12550 87400 50870 29030 522300 10290 16570 54710 6013 7716 1032 1442 31800 17460 5560 1893 20760 12430 4872 4778 9751 16390 7938 723 16550 6535 7994 6793 11630 2111 23470 3804 5062 47940 17590 4644 2260 24350 8794 1911 11330 45050 1376 9748 5087 7119 2342
2021-03-08 263200 22280 21090 60680 157900 37740 60440 191600 47570 12590 87760 50990 29100 522800 10320 16620 54900 6019 7745 1033 1444 31940 17550 5576 1895 20790 12470 4905 4796 9769 16430 7954 726 16570 6537 8014 6796 11650 2114 23480 3817 5071 48030 17630 4659 2265 24380 8830 1914 11360 45180 1379 9912 5105 7119 2345

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths