COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-03-08


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-03-08

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-0412-0212-2811-042021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-1711-2912-1912-112021-01-1912-012021-01-0811-272021-01-2811-272021-01-2012-04 --2021-01-1311-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 142 55 207 857 38 931 6 596 101 76 164 56 723 99 492 279 164 140 52 6 96
Days since peak 48 102 81 124 96 70 124 54 52 124 77 111 99 79 87 48 97 59 101 39 101 47 94 54 112
Last total 124566 562322 8732 22292 10764 4666 21882 72236 2381 71436 774 88447 6797 5609 15988 4422 100103 15861 45317 16565 20963 13003 3897 7921 632 10056
Last daily increment 65 2050 19 31 150 33 165 252 2 298 7 359 39 19 115 0 318 28 32 25 63 0 6 85 0 8
Last week 1270 12571 127 151 373 157 1181 1310 14 1635 19 1683 240 61 800 89 1815 212 1309 176 454 121 34 533 9 51
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1506-05 --04-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3091 20 322 5 10 226 15 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 101 8 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 2 0 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 3 10 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-03-08

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --2021-01-162021-02-062021-01-2209-122021-01-2711-182021-01-262021-02-262021-02-2012-172021-01-1412-262021-01-142021-01-202021-02-0312-142021-01-152021-01-2312-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-2612-1112-1012-102021-02-042021-01-132021-02-0311-1608-2012-172021-01-0812-0712-112021-01-202021-01-142021-02-032021-02-0312-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-01-2912-152021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-01-132021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 147 80 389 1159 308 473 1259 205 134 552 564 253 3325 13 136 43 154 534 151 38 6 9 178 137 47 310 18 148 1144 199 47 147 106 43 21 126 63 65 46 27 97 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 190 40 23 212 93 23 125 337 9 297 2 82 60 26 9
Days since peak 186 51 30 45 177 40 110 41 10 16 81 53 72 53 47 33 84 52 44 89 56 33 76 46 42 41 87 88 88 32 54 33 112 200 81 59 91 87 47 53 33 33 89 95 283 256 82 54 51 82 38 83 54 35 95 31 48 88 5 71 69 90 54 60
Last total 909 266398 22271 21163 60598 157930 37547 60786 190923 47854 12521 87985 50803 29094 525752 305 10148 5343 16328 54316 5990 7715 1035 1475 31764 17378 442 5559 1890 20768 12315 4772 4829 9758 16424 7900 706 16498 6556 7976 6808 1381 11535 1449 2106 1179 23590 3811 5040 48113 17501 4534 2298 24344 8760 1901 11333 45411 1364 9683 208 5058 7106 2325 682
Last daily increment 0 987 37 86 95 77 281 99 319 173 5 371 125 64 719 0 0 24 0 96 0 21 5 2 81 41 0 1 11 4 5 4 10 10 18 2 0 4 6 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 16 15 3 71 0 0 2 10 6 1 9 96 0 87 0 22 0 0 0
Last week 0 9037 228 479 626 584 1029 519 3736 960 152 2527 532 388 9015 3 157 89 268 1518 31 67 16 49 629 454 6 61 19 185 123 72 158 111 252 60 3 118 66 193 84 9 247 2 29 14 269 71 73 618 0 0 73 282 184 13 116 1225 17 740 2 74 56 24 0
Previous peak date --07-2204-2907-1708-2306-16 --03-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2204-1504-1211-2409-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2905-0208-0711-0310-2105-2109-0905-1205-02 --04-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2911-0408-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-2404-17 --05-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 186 787 318 1662 144 1833 2944 159 323 120 2239 4 100 124 78 138 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 14 20 112 98 10 64 459 56 137 23 33 31 5 41 321 9 18 3562 42 8 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 27
Low between peaks 3 37 125 388 54 343 48 21 58 16 529 1 9 10 6 42 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 3 3 15 5 4 10 -2 5 6 5 13 11 2 1 51 3 5 6 12 1 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-03-08 124566 562322 8732 22292 10764 4666 21882 72236 71436 88447 6797 5609 15988 4422 100103 15861 45317 16565 20963 13003 3897 7921 10056
2021-03-09 124800 565000 8753 22320 10770 4675 22050 72840 71750 88910 6851 5621 16110 4465 100400 15950 45510 16590 21040 13050 3904 8008 10080
2021-03-10 125200 567700 8782 22340 10770 4697 22140 73400 72210 89200 6896 5634 16240 4511 100700 16020 45820 16630 21090 13150 3918 8095 10100
2021-03-11 125300 569800 8807 22370 10820 4718 22260 73700 72500 89480 6941 5646 16380 4554 101000 16060 46090 16660 21170 13160 3929 8180 10120
2021-03-12 125500 572400 8830 22390 10860 4743 22400 74070 73000 89920 6986 5658 16520 4571 101300 16100 46300 16690 21250 13200 3937 8264 10130
2021-03-13 125700 573900 8852 22410 10870 4764 22540 74200 73010 90050 7031 5669 16640 4588 101500 16150 46530 16710 21300 13200 3946 8348 10130
2021-03-14 125700 574700 8873 22440 10900 4778 22700 74200 73010 90140 7076 5680 16740 4588 101700 16160 46630 16740 21340 13200 3953 8432 10130
2021-03-15 125700 576500 8894 22460 11020 4804 22860 74440 73300 90470 7122 5692 16840 4588 102000 16190 46650 16760 21400 13200 3960 8516 10140

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-03-08 266398 22271 21163 60598 157930 37547 60786 190923 47854 12521 87985 50803 29094 525752 10148 5343 16328 54316 5990 7715 1475 31764 17378 5559 20768 12315 4772 4829 9758 16424 7900 16498 6556 7976 6808 11535 2106 23590 3811 5040 48113 2298 24344 8760 11333 45411 9683 5058 7106 2325
2021-03-09 266800 22340 21210 60680 158000 37740 60870 192300 48060 12580 88380 51020 29160 528500 10250 5350 16450 54550 6007 7736 1485 31990 17550 5593 20830 12380 4772 4849 9779 16460 7942 16540 6556 8026 6831 11600 2109 23670 3825 5044 48190 2298 24440 8793 11360 45570 9820 5084 7147 2333
2021-03-10 267900 22420 21230 60770 158100 38000 60920 193300 48270 12700 88810 51140 29250 531300 10340 5365 16520 54790 6024 7764 1496 32160 17690 5612 20880 12410 4874 4879 9813 16530 7971 16560 6568 8146 6849 11700 2118 23790 3840 5058 48300 2317 24540 8860 11420 45780 10070 5122 7171 2345
2021-03-11 269200 22470 21360 60860 158200 38220 60990 194200 48460 12790 89250 51240 29320 533400 10420 5382 16640 55040 6034 7782 1507 32300 17820 5643 20930 12450 4877 4909 9834 16580 8003 16610 6580 8190 6862 11750 2121 23850 3855 5070 48390 2338 24620 8909 11470 46010 10180 5150 7193 2348
2021-03-12 270600 22500 21450 60940 158300 38420 61060 194900 48640 12860 89660 51330 29390 535200 10480 5391 16730 55300 6048 7796 1517 32440 17890 5660 20960 12490 4904 4931 9864 16620 8018 16620 6590 8205 6878 11800 2141 23890 3871 5077 48480 2344 24670 8949 11510 46250 10330 5160 7205 2356
2021-03-13 271700 22550 21520 61030 158400 38620 61130 195600 48820 12930 90070 51420 29460 536700 10520 5403 16790 55400 6054 7799 1526 32540 17970 5665 21010 12530 4919 4968 9865 16670 8028 16680 6600 8210 6899 11850 2142 23920 3882 5092 48560 2346 24710 8986 11540 46420 10470 5160 7214 2361
2021-03-14 272500 22570 21590 61110 158500 38800 61210 195700 48990 12990 90400 51420 29530 537100 10520 5423 16790 55400 6059 7799 1535 32610 17970 5668 21020 12550 4919 4978 9891 16710 8030 16680 6605 8210 6900 11850 2142 23930 3882 5092 48640 2346 24730 9019 11570 46490 10570 5160 7214 2361
2021-03-15 273300 22600 21670 61200 158600 38990 61280 196000 49170 13040 90720 51510 29590 537900 10520 5440 16790 55510 6061 7818 1545 32710 18000 5675 21030 12570 4945 4984 9905 16750 8034 16680 6609 8210 6902 11870 2142 23940 3898 5092 48720 2346 24750 9050 11590 46610 10570 5181 7215 2362

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-03-08 124566 562322 8732 22292 10764 4666 21882 72236 71436 88447 6797 5609 15988 4422 100103 15861 45317 16565 20963 13003 3897 7921 10056
2021-03-09 124800 564600 8755 22320 10830 4688 22080 72590 71670 88790 6834 5620 16110 4440 100400 15930 45500 16590 21040 13050 3904 8014 10070
2021-03-10 125100 567000 8780 22330 10870 4711 22250 73010 72040 89090 6862 5629 16230 4476 100700 16000 45770 16610 21100 13120 3913 8108 10080
2021-03-11 125300 569100 8803 22350 10930 4733 22410 73260 72310 89360 6892 5639 16350 4508 101000 16040 46010 16630 21170 13140 3922 8200 10090
2021-03-12 125500 571400 8825 22370 10980 4757 22580 73600 72690 89710 6923 5647 16470 4527 101300 16080 46220 16650 21240 13170 3929 8293 10110
2021-03-13 125800 573100 8847 22380 11020 4778 22740 73740 72850 89920 6955 5657 16590 4549 101600 16130 46450 16670 21290 13180 3937 8386 10110
2021-03-14 126000 574400 8868 22400 11050 4791 22910 73830 72990 90120 6987 5665 16700 4566 101800 16160 46610 16680 21340 13190 3944 8479 10110
2021-03-15 126200 576300 8890 22410 11120 4811 23060 74110 73310 90420 7020 5675 16800 4581 102000 16180 46720 16700 21390 13200 3951 8574 10130

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-03-08 266398 22271 21163 60598 157930 37547 60786 190923 47854 12521 87985 50803 29094 525752 10148 5343 16328 54316 5990 7715 1475 31764 17378 5559 20768 12315 4772 4829 9758 16424 7900 16498 6556 7976 6808 11535 2106 23590 3811 5040 48113 2298 24344 8760 11333 45411 9683 5058 7106 2325
2021-03-09 267900 22310 21210 60680 158000 37760 60850 191900 48040 12550 88370 50950 29160 527000 10190 5361 16390 54560 5996 7722 1481 31880 17470 5573 20800 12350 4771 4848 9773 16460 7914 16520 6560 7994 6839 11580 2108 23620 3821 5045 48200 2304 24400 8784 11350 45610 9740 5083 7138 2328
2021-03-10 269400 22360 21250 60770 158100 37970 60880 192800 48170 12600 88760 51060 29220 528900 10260 5371 16450 54960 6006 7741 1490 32010 17570 5589 20840 12370 4829 4877 9797 16500 7934 16540 6572 8066 6856 11680 2115 23680 3834 5062 48300 2319 24470 8823 11380 45820 9820 5113 7157 2335
2021-03-11 270900 22410 21340 60860 158200 38160 60920 193600 48320 12630 89150 51160 29280 530100 10310 5381 16540 55320 6013 7756 1494 32130 17660 5606 20880 12380 4840 4904 9816 16540 7957 16580 6584 8098 6871 11730 2118 23710 3847 5077 48390 2334 24530 8857 11410 46040 9890 5136 7176 2338
2021-03-12 272300 22450 21400 60950 158300 38330 60950 194300 48470 12670 89540 51260 29340 531200 10360 5390 16610 55700 6023 7768 1499 32260 17730 5621 20910 12410 4857 4927 9840 16580 7970 16590 6595 8117 6887 11780 2131 23730 3860 5087 48480 2342 24580 8889 11430 46270 9970 5146 7185 2345
2021-03-13 273500 22490 21460 61040 158400 38510 60990 195200 48610 12700 89930 51370 29400 532300 10400 5397 16680 55920 6030 7777 1505 32370 17810 5632 20950 12430 4874 4958 9850 16620 7984 16640 6604 8136 6906 11830 2134 23750 3871 5105 48560 2346 24620 8917 11450 46390 10040 5151 7195 2350
2021-03-14 274400 22520 21520 61120 158500 38680 61030 195500 48760 12740 90290 51450 29460 532800 10420 5410 16720 56040 6037 7784 1510 32460 17840 5643 20970 12440 4888 4976 9872 16660 7996 16650 6608 8153 6909 11840 2136 23760 3878 5109 48650 2349 24660 8947 11470 46480 10110 5156 7199 2355
2021-03-15 275100 22550 21590 61200 158600 38870 61070 195800 48880 12770 90640 51550 29520 533600 10440 5419 16750 56300 6041 7805 1513 32590 17900 5654 20990 12470 4907 4993 9889 16690 8008 16660 6610 8168 6911 11860 2137 23770 3894 5113 48730 2353 24690 8976 11490 46610 10190 5166 7201 2357

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths