COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-04-17


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-04-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-162021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-1711-2912-19 --2021-01-1912-012021-01-08 --2021-01-282021-03-302021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-01-1311-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 126 55 218 857 38 931 6 596 101 76 56 723 99 279 142 140 52 107 6 96
Days since peak 88 142 121 164 10 110 32 94 92 164 117 151 139 119 88 137 99 79 18 87 134 10 94 152
Last total 127260 658860 9870 23718 15138 5618 28396 79971 2452 76981 887 99947 9397 6523 24979 4835 116676 16904 61825 16942 26072 13788 4153 11043 708 10505
Last daily increment 35 1987 27 37 38 24 79 77 0 0 0 189 67 37 217 4 310 31 617 5 135 0 6 73 0 0
Last week 173 15884 183 245 720 140 588 1471 11 653 19 1829 512 215 1562 50 2422 133 3404 26 937 167 34 478 24 52
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --12-1104-2403-2904-0411-2504-1511-2704-21 -- --04-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 164 167 781 153 514 31 164 101 8 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 0 6 -6 3 68 1 0 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-04-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-03 --2021-01-162021-03-292021-01-22 --2021-04-0411-182021-01-262021-02-232021-04-0912-172021-01-14 --2021-01-14 --2021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 147 114 389 273 473 1259 204 279 552 564 3336 134 43 154 578 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 9 347 147 106 43 8 126 114 54 46 13 96 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 192 1438 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 226 91 19 85 13 150 81 53 8 121 93 93 74 124 92 52 129 96 73 116 86 82 81 14 128 128 122 24 30 152 240 121 39 131 39 45 93 8 74 129 135 323 296 122 94 91 122 10 11 94 75 135 71 88 128 45 111 109 130 36 100
Last total 910 371678 23572 25055 67931 177150 43328 66327 212228 56797 15810 103451 53711 35608 566904 334 10790 5693 17151 60994 6188 7983 1095 1602 34404 19133 471 5881 2017 21653 12808 4909 6330 10282 17444 8483 764 17762 7005 8445 7153 1545 12387 1479 2206 1262 25134 4001 5365 51249 18989 6697 2460 25644 9321 1953 11817 49562 1482 10564 242 5376 7422 2780 703
Last daily increment 0 2929 41 132 367 1501 132 319 535 648 72 392 48 288 680 0 51 1 -2 72 2 0 2 6 74 39 0 3 0 23 5 0 13 0 10 22 1 76 10 4 14 8 0 1 8 0 40 0 0 77 0 0 3 31 12 1 0 52 0 15 0 0 10 3 0
Last week 1 18541 278 709 2042 6971 798 1837 2890 1894 865 2169 389 1669 4748 21 78 32 65 542 31 51 14 24 383 258 3 24 24 148 65 14 80 66 69 95 14 368 48 118 57 22 139 8 -7 11 264 25 33 437 74 28 20 251 45 7 49 350 3 92 11 58 42 35 2
Previous peak date --07-2204-2907-1708-2309-162021-01-2703-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2404-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 186 787 318 1167 308 144 1833 2944 159 323 256 2239 13 100 124 78 138 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 199 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 3 37 125 136 54 343 48 21 58 529 9 10 6 42 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 19 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -9 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-18 to 2021-04-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-04-17 127260 658860 9870 23718 15138 5618 28396 79971 76981 99947 9397 6523 24979 4835 116676 16904 61825 16942 26072 13788 4153 11043 708 10505
2021-04-18 127300 660800 9900 23760 15240 5640 28610 79970 76980 100300 9472 6556 25190 4843 117000 16920 62450 16950 26180 13790 4159 11110 709 10520
2021-04-19 127300 662600 9930 23780 15420 5662 28790 80130 77160 100600 9514 6580 25440 4845 117300 16940 62960 16960 26270 13790 4168 11150 712 10530
2021-04-20 127400 665200 9950 23820 15520 5683 28940 80370 77250 100900 9571 6609 25680 4861 117700 16970 63540 16960 26450 13820 4176 11200 712 10540
2021-04-21 127400 668000 9980 23850 15660 5705 29030 80660 77320 101100 9634 6639 25950 4869 118100 16990 64120 16970 26590 13860 4182 11260 732 10560
2021-04-22 127500 670700 10010 23880 15760 5726 29160 80860 77410 101400 9699 6669 26190 4878 118400 17010 64710 16970 26760 13890 4189 11310 732 10570
2021-04-23 127500 673300 10030 23920 15880 5747 29260 81060 77480 101700 9768 6701 26440 4894 118800 17030 65320 16980 26880 13920 4195 11370 732 10570
2021-04-24 127500 675000 10060 23960 15900 5768 29350 81130 77540 101800 9838 6733 26650 4899 119100 17050 65950 16980 27010 13920 4201 11440 732 10570

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-18 to 2021-04-24

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-04-17 371678 23572 25055 67931 177150 43328 66327 212228 56797 15810 103451 53711 35608 566904 334 10790 5693 17151 60994 6188 7983 1602 34404 19133 5881 2017 21653 12808 6330 10282 17444 8483 17762 7005 8445 7153 1545 12387 25134 4001 5365 51249 18989 6697 2460 25644 9321 11817 49562 10564 5376 7422 2780
2021-04-18 373700 23570 25130 68270 178300 43450 66610 212600 57020 15960 103800 53720 35880 567400 335 10790 5698 17160 61170 6191 7983 1605 34440 19160 5886 2017 21660 12810 6342 10280 17450 8487 17760 7014 8450 7153 1551 12390 25130 4002 5374 51320 18990 6720 2463 25640 9331 11830 49690 10580 5376 7426 2783
2021-04-19 374900 23590 25230 68590 179500 43570 66870 212900 57020 16150 104100 53740 36140 567800 335 10800 5709 17170 61260 6191 7995 1605 34490 19200 5888 2019 21670 12810 6359 10310 17470 8487 17760 7016 8452 7153 1555 12430 25150 4006 5377 51400 18990 6735 2467 25640 9347 11850 49750 10600 5383 7430 2784
2021-04-20 378600 23620 25250 68900 180700 43680 67130 213500 57110 16310 104400 53790 36410 568600 336 10810 5718 17190 61340 6201 8006 1606 34560 19230 5891 2021 21690 12830 6367 10320 17480 8499 17800 7017 8497 7171 1559 12450 25200 4015 5387 51480 18990 6757 2471 25680 9360 11870 49830 10630 5395 7441 2788
2021-04-21 381900 23660 25280 69220 181900 43800 67390 214000 57280 16460 104800 53860 36670 569700 337 10820 5726 17200 61490 6207 8013 1608 34610 19290 5895 2025 21710 12840 6397 10330 17490 8517 17820 7032 8515 7175 1564 12470 25250 4021 5400 51550 18990 6782 2475 25730 9371 11880 49920 10650 5409 7451 2800
2021-04-22 385300 23700 25450 69530 182900 43920 67660 214500 57460 16600 105100 53930 36930 570500 338 10830 5734 17220 61610 6213 8018 1610 34690 19350 5899 2032 21750 12850 6416 10340 17500 8529 17910 7043 8518 7181 1569 12500 25290 4024 5406 51620 18990 6808 2478 25770 9381 11900 49990 10670 5417 7458 2813
2021-04-23 388500 23740 25590 69850 184100 44030 67930 215000 57670 16740 105500 53990 37200 571400 339 10840 5741 17240 61730 6222 8021 1612 34780 19410 5903 2034 21770 12870 6430 10350 17510 8547 17950 7049 8525 7190 1574 12520 25330 4028 5412 51680 18990 6835 2481 25820 9390 11910 50060 10690 5433 7464 2816
2021-04-24 390900 23770 25690 70170 185300 44150 68200 215500 57900 16870 105800 54030 37470 571900 340 10880 5747 17240 61790 6226 8021 1615 34830 19450 5908 2034 21780 12870 6442 10350 17520 8566 18010 7058 8527 7199 1579 12520 25360 4028 5415 51750 18990 6863 2485 25840 9398 11920 50120 10710 5434 7471 2821

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-18 to 2021-04-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-04-17 127260 658860 9870 23718 15138 5618 28396 79971 76981 99947 9397 6523 24979 4835 116676 16904 61825 16942 26072 13788 4153 11043 708 10505
2021-04-18 127300 660900 9900 23760 15220 5639 28470 80080 77040 100400 9468 6562 25200 4840 117000 16920 62310 16950 26200 13790 4159 11120 709 10510
2021-04-19 127300 663100 9920 23780 15380 5661 28590 80290 77250 100700 9535 6592 25440 4843 117300 16930 62700 16950 26310 13790 4165 11190 711 10520
2021-04-20 127300 665700 9950 23810 15480 5686 28710 80540 77360 101000 9605 6623 25680 4855 117700 16960 63160 16960 26450 13810 4171 11270 713 10530
2021-04-21 127300 668400 9980 23840 15610 5707 28800 80840 77480 101200 9677 6658 25940 4863 118200 16980 63680 16960 26580 13850 4177 11340 727 10550
2021-04-22 127400 671000 10010 23860 15720 5727 28920 81040 77570 101600 9751 6693 26180 4870 118600 17000 64210 16970 26720 13870 4183 11420 727 10560
2021-04-23 127400 673500 10040 23890 15850 5749 29050 81220 77710 101800 9826 6732 26430 4883 119100 17020 64730 16970 26840 13900 4189 11500 728 10570
2021-04-24 127400 675700 10070 23920 15930 5772 29160 81330 77810 102000 9903 6768 26680 4891 119500 17050 65270 16970 26960 13900 4195 11570 729 10570

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-18 to 2021-04-24

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-04-17 371678 23572 25055 67931 177150 43328 66327 212228 56797 15810 103451 53711 35608 566904 334 10790 5693 17151 60994 6188 7983 1602 34404 19133 5881 2017 21653 12808 6330 10282 17444 8483 17762 7005 8445 7153 1545 12387 25134 4001 5365 51249 18989 6697 2460 25644 9321 11817 49562 10564 5376 7422 2780
2021-04-18 373600 23600 25180 68260 178400 43480 66580 212400 57120 15930 103800 53760 35880 567300 336 10800 5696 17150 61060 6191 7985 1604 34440 19150 5886 2018 21670 12820 6336 10290 17460 8495 17800 7014 8448 7157 1550 12390 25150 4002 5365 51320 19010 6766 2463 25660 9329 11820 49590 10580 5378 7424 2783
2021-04-19 375300 23630 25270 68530 179400 43610 66740 212600 57280 16120 104100 53780 36140 567600 337 10810 5700 17150 61100 6193 7993 1605 34470 19180 5892 2019 21680 12820 6342 10300 17470 8502 17820 7018 8451 7158 1553 12430 25160 4005 5367 51390 19020 6835 2467 25670 9338 11840 49610 10600 5382 7425 2786
2021-04-20 378900 23670 25330 68830 180300 43740 66900 213200 57440 16310 104400 53820 36400 568100 338 10810 5705 17170 61140 6201 8001 1608 34530 19210 5898 2022 21700 12830 6346 10310 17490 8515 17860 7021 8472 7176 1558 12440 25190 4011 5375 51450 19020 6905 2473 25710 9347 11850 49650 10620 5390 7431 2791
2021-04-21 382200 23710 25380 69120 181300 43850 67050 213700 57630 16480 104800 53870 36660 568700 339 10820 5709 17170 61270 6207 8007 1609 34570 19260 5904 2026 21720 12850 6358 10320 17500 8531 17900 7036 8483 7181 1562 12460 25210 4016 5387 51510 19030 7012 2477 25750 9356 11860 49710 10640 5399 7436 2802
2021-04-22 385700 23750 25500 69400 182300 44000 67190 214100 57790 16650 105100 53920 36920 569200 341 10830 5714 17190 61380 6212 8011 1611 34640 19300 5908 2031 21750 12850 6370 10330 17510 8542 17960 7047 8488 7187 1565 12490 25230 4019 5393 51570 19040 7042 2482 25790 9365 11870 49770 10650 5404 7440 2813
2021-04-23 388900 23780 25590 69680 183400 44120 67340 214400 57980 16850 105500 53960 37180 569700 342 10840 5718 17200 61520 6219 8016 1612 34720 19350 5917 2033 21770 12870 6382 10340 17520 8558 17990 7054 8494 7195 1573 12510 25250 4023 5399 51630 19050 7076 2486 25830 9372 11890 49840 10670 5413 7444 2819
2021-04-24 391800 23810 25670 69980 184300 44240 67470 215300 58200 17040 105800 53990 37450 570100 343 10860 5721 17210 61580 6224 8018 1614 34760 19390 5923 2034 21780 12870 6390 10350 17530 8573 18040 7065 8499 7202 1579 12510 25260 4025 5408 51690 19060 7110 2489 25850 9382 11890 49890 10680 5414 7447 2825

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths