COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-04-23


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-04-23

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-042021-03-3111-1711-2912-192021-04-132021-01-1912-012021-01-08 --2021-01-28 --2021-01-2012-042021-04-07 --11-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 122 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 101 76 255 56 723 99 279 140 52 104 96
Days since peak 94 148 127 170 16 116 45 100 98 170 23 157 145 125 10 94 143 105 85 93 140 16 158
Last total 127385 673276 10055 23954 15826 5749 28863 81492 2472 77591 903 101830 9864 6784 26208 4867 118699 17016 64707 16957 27113 13923 4195 11405 736 10566
Last daily increment 40 2602 29 45 208 21 76 289 5 95 1 332 76 46 207 1 342 14 539 1 170 41 8 48 1 11
Last week 125 14416 185 236 688 131 467 1521 20 610 16 1883 467 261 1229 32 2023 112 2882 15 1041 135 42 362 28 61
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --12-1104-2403-2904-0411-2604-1511-2504-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 164 167 781 153 490 31 166 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 80 0 6 -6 3 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-04-23

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-142021-01-162021-03-29 -- --2021-01-2711-182021-04-102021-02-232021-04-0912-172021-01-14 --2021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2959 147 114 308 473 1286 204 223 552 564 3334 16 134 43 154 607 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 56 18 148 99 8 350 147 106 43 8 126 114 54 46 10 96 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 192 1295 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 232 9 97 25 86 156 13 59 14 127 99 98 8 80 130 98 58 135 102 79 122 92 88 87 20 134 134 128 30 36 158 246 127 45 137 45 51 99 14 80 135 141 329 302 128 100 97 128 16 17 100 81 141 77 94 134 51 117 115 136 42 106
Last total 910 386416 23870 25641 70446 189544 44346 68746 214504 59012 16529 105718 54066 37672 571197 334 10840 5716 17238 61401 6231 8035 1099 1609 34759 19287 474 5907 2031 21777 12848 4924 6403 10336 17517 8573 771 18109 7064 8496 7175 1559 12523 1486 2234 1275 25328 4024 5422 51601 19120 6716 2477 25927 9404 1957 11912 49877 1488 10666 243 5431 7452 2813 705
Last daily increment 0 2914 60 109 420 2624 174 380 425 408 159 390 71 343 852 0 16 5 17 92 6 8 1 5 63 41 1 3 3 22 4 7 22 12 13 19 2 32 10 0 2 2 18 2 9 5 27 1 22 64 89 0 9 58 16 1 10 59 1 13 0 6 14 5 0
Last week 0 14738 298 586 2515 12394 1018 2419 2276 2215 719 2267 355 2064 4251 0 50 23 87 407 43 52 4 7 355 154 3 26 14 124 40 15 73 54 73 90 7 347 59 51 22 14 136 7 28 13 194 23 57 352 89 19 17 283 83 4 95 315 6 102 1 55 30 33 2
Previous peak date --07-2204-2907-172021-01-2209-16 --03-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2404-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1063 186 787 396 1167 144 1833 2944 159 323 256 2240 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 199 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 54 343 48 -2 58 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 19 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -22 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-24 to 2021-04-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLROSESISKNOCH
2021-04-23 127385 673276 10055 23954 15826 5749 28863 81492 2472 77591 101830 9864 6784 26208 4867 118699 17016 64707 27113 13923 4195 11405 736 10566
2021-04-24 127400 675900 10090 23990 15910 5771 29080 81520 2474 77650 101900 9940 6817 26540 4883 119300 17050 65380 27300 13930 4201 11470 749 10570
2021-04-25 127500 677600 10120 24040 15990 5794 29180 81530 2474 77660 102200 10000 6831 26780 4889 119700 17060 65530 27460 13930 4206 11570 752 10570
2021-04-26 127500 679600 10140 24080 16200 5816 29310 81770 2475 77800 102600 10070 6854 27000 4891 120100 17080 65570 27620 13930 4212 11650 757 10580
2021-04-27 127500 682300 10170 24110 16300 5838 29420 82010 2477 77840 102900 10140 6880 27200 4904 120500 17110 66080 27790 13960 4218 11730 761 10580
2021-04-28 127500 685100 10200 24150 16420 5859 29500 82330 2478 78060 103200 10210 6907 27430 4914 120900 17130 66760 27960 14000 4223 11800 772 10600
2021-04-29 127600 687700 10230 24190 16450 5880 29580 82590 2480 78180 103500 10290 6937 27630 4923 121200 17140 67460 28130 14030 4229 11860 775 10600
2021-04-30 127600 690100 10260 24230 16630 5901 29670 82820 2482 78310 103800 10360 6968 27840 4931 121600 17160 68010 28300 14060 4235 11930 775 10610

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-24 to 2021-04-30

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-04-23 386416 23870 25641 70446 189544 44346 68746 214504 59012 16529 105718 54066 37672 571197 10840 5716 17238 61401 6231 8035 34759 19287 5907 21777 12848 6403 10336 17517 8573 18109 7064 8496 7175 12523 2234 25328 4024 5422 51601 19120 25927 9404 11912 49877 10666 5431 7452 2813
2021-04-24 390500 23880 25760 70880 191700 44480 69000 215100 59290 16670 106100 54090 38010 572700 10880 5719 17240 61570 6231 8035 34810 19360 5912 21790 12870 6420 10340 17530 8589 18150 7073 8511 7192 12520 2234 25370 4028 5422 51660 19160 25930 9410 11910 49930 10670 5434 7462 2820
2021-04-25 392400 23890 25880 71270 193600 44530 69340 215200 59300 16830 106400 54110 38350 573400 10880 5722 17240 61650 6237 8035 34830 19370 5916 21800 12870 6433 10340 17540 8593 18150 7084 8512 7193 12520 2234 25380 4028 5422 51740 19210 25930 9416 11910 49970 10680 5434 7462 2826
2021-04-26 393700 23920 25980 71660 195500 44620 69690 215400 59440 16970 106700 54120 38690 574100 10880 5729 17240 61680 6238 8049 34860 19400 5921 21820 12880 6444 10360 17550 8593 18150 7088 8516 7193 12550 2235 25400 4033 5422 51820 19260 25930 9425 11940 49990 10690 5446 7464 2827
2021-04-27 397200 23950 26010 72050 197500 44720 70030 216000 59640 17110 107000 54210 39020 575100 10880 5739 17270 61750 6248 8056 34930 19420 5926 21830 12890 6458 10370 17560 8610 18220 7091 8546 7205 12560 2241 25440 4038 5430 51880 19310 25980 9434 11960 50040 10700 5459 7472 2833
2021-04-28 400600 24000 26030 72460 199500 44830 70360 216600 59860 17240 107400 54270 39350 576100 10890 5745 17280 61850 6253 8062 34990 19470 5930 21850 12900 6476 10380 17580 8632 18240 7105 8556 7209 12600 2241 25500 4045 5441 51940 19350 26040 9443 11970 50100 10710 5473 7477 2845
2021-04-29 403000 24050 26220 72850 201500 44950 70750 217100 60110 17370 107700 54320 39680 577200 10900 5751 17300 61940 6262 8071 35070 19520 5935 21890 12910 6486 10390 17590 8648 18350 7116 8565 7218 12620 2246 25530 4049 5450 52000 19400 26080 9453 11980 50160 10720 5480 7484 2856
2021-04-30 405700 24090 26330 73240 203600 45080 71090 217500 60380 17500 108100 54390 40010 577900 10910 5757 17310 62050 6270 8076 35130 19560 5940 21910 12920 6506 10410 17600 8664 18380 7124 8569 7221 12640 2254 25560 4050 5465 52060 19450 26140 9463 11990 50240 10740 5489 7494 2860

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-24 to 2021-04-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLROSESISKNOCH
2021-04-23 127385 673276 10055 23954 15826 5749 28863 81492 2472 77591 101830 9864 6784 26208 4867 118699 17016 64707 27113 13923 4195 11405 736 10566
2021-04-24 127400 675400 10090 23990 15900 5771 28950 81600 2475 77650 102100 9940 6824 26430 4872 119000 17040 65290 27260 13940 4202 11470 740 10570
2021-04-25 127400 677300 10110 24020 15990 5792 29010 81690 2476 77690 102300 10010 6860 26660 4878 119300 17060 65610 27380 13940 4207 11560 742 10570
2021-04-26 127400 679500 10140 24040 16140 5813 29110 81930 2478 77770 102700 10090 6895 26880 4882 119600 17070 65880 27490 13940 4212 11640 745 10580
2021-04-27 127500 681900 10170 24070 16230 5835 29200 82200 2480 77820 103000 10160 6931 27100 4892 120000 17100 66390 27650 13970 4217 11710 747 10590
2021-04-28 127500 684500 10200 24100 16350 5857 29270 82520 2482 77960 103300 10240 6971 27340 4901 120400 17120 66970 27770 14010 4223 11790 752 10610
2021-04-29 127500 687100 10230 24130 16430 5880 29370 82780 2484 78070 103600 10320 7011 27580 4909 120800 17130 67550 27900 14040 4228 11860 755 10620
2021-04-30 127600 689600 10260 24160 16560 5901 29470 83000 2486 78160 103800 10390 7051 27820 4920 121200 17150 68100 28010 14060 4234 11940 757 10630

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-24 to 2021-04-30

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-04-23 386416 23870 25641 70446 189544 44346 68746 214504 59012 16529 105718 54066 37672 571197 10840 5716 17238 61401 6231 8035 34759 19287 5907 21777 12848 6403 10336 17517 8573 18109 7064 8496 7175 12523 2234 25328 4024 5422 51601 19120 25927 9404 11912 49877 10666 5431 7452 2813
2021-04-24 389000 23910 25750 70830 191700 44490 69060 215000 59380 16680 106100 54120 38010 571800 10870 5719 17250 61470 6236 8040 34820 19330 5911 21800 12850 6417 10340 17530 8592 18170 7074 8498 7184 12530 2239 25350 4026 5429 51670 19150 25970 9417 11920 49910 10680 5433 7459 2818
2021-04-25 390800 23940 25850 71140 193500 44610 69320 215200 59510 16850 106400 54160 38350 572000 10870 5721 17250 61520 6242 8043 34840 19340 5915 21810 12860 6426 10350 17540 8601 18190 7086 8504 7186 12530 2240 25360 4027 5430 51730 19160 25980 9425 11930 49930 10690 5434 7459 2825
2021-04-26 392300 23970 25940 71450 195200 44730 69570 215300 59790 16990 106700 54200 38670 572400 10870 5725 17250 61530 6245 8054 34870 19360 5918 21830 12860 6436 10360 17560 8608 18230 7091 8509 7187 12550 2241 25360 4031 5432 51790 19170 26000 9434 11940 49940 10710 5440 7459 2828
2021-04-27 395500 24020 25990 71750 197100 44880 69800 215900 60010 17120 107100 54270 39000 572900 10870 5729 17270 61590 6253 8061 34930 19380 5923 21840 12870 6447 10370 17570 8623 18290 7094 8521 7196 12570 2245 25390 4035 5440 51850 19190 26050 9443 11950 49970 10720 5449 7463 2833
2021-04-28 398700 24070 26040 72040 198900 45010 70020 216300 60210 17250 107400 54320 39330 573400 10880 5733 17280 61690 6258 8067 34980 19420 5927 21860 12890 6462 10380 17580 8641 18330 7108 8532 7200 12590 2245 25420 4041 5451 51900 19200 26100 9452 11950 50020 10730 5457 7466 2843
2021-04-29 401700 24110 26160 72330 200700 45140 70250 216800 60430 17380 107800 54380 39660 574000 10890 5737 17290 61790 6265 8074 35040 19460 5931 21890 12890 6473 10390 17590 8654 18390 7120 8541 7207 12610 2247 25430 4044 5458 51960 19210 26130 9461 11960 50080 10740 5462 7471 2853
2021-04-30 404800 24150 26260 72610 202600 45260 70470 217300 60650 17510 108100 54440 40000 574400 10900 5740 17300 61910 6271 8079 35110 19500 5935 21910 12910 6488 10400 17600 8669 18430 7127 8554 7214 12630 2249 25450 4047 5466 52010 19220 26180 9470 11970 50130 10760 5470 7475 2859

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths