COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-05-05


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-05-05

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-17 --12-192021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-072021-01-282021-04-182021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 76 258 56 723 99 512 279 158 140 52 107 9 96
Days since peak 106 160 139 182 28 128 57 112 110 182 135 169 137 33 106 155 117 28 97 17 105 152 28 14 170
Last total 127570 695684 10311 24406 16773 5976 29479 84141 2491 78566 918 104900 10764 7315 28173 4915 122005 17245 68482 16983 28616 14151 4279 11886 767 10685
Last daily increment 27 2137 20 39 164 23 58 251 0 167 2 242 96 51 128 7 267 24 349 2 142 60 6 31 10 18
Last week 68 9969 132 221 405 108 266 1276 8 486 5 1375 449 275 815 16 1461 121 1409 9 645 149 36 239 13 60
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-29 --12-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 80 0 6 -6 204 3 68 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-05-05

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-042021-01-162021-03-29 -- --2021-04-0411-182021-04-102021-04-222021-04-0912-172021-01-14 --2021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 3078 147 116 280 473 1539 356 210 552 564 3335 14 134 43 154 607 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 53 18 148 99 8 350 147 106 43 8 126 114 54 46 15 96 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 192 1324 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 244 31 109 37 31 168 25 13 26 139 111 110 20 92 142 110 70 147 114 91 134 104 100 99 32 146 146 140 42 48 170 258 139 57 149 57 63 111 26 92 147 153 341 314 140 112 109 140 28 29 112 93 153 89 106 146 63 129 127 148 54 118
Last total 910 414399 24437 26726 76015 230168 46349 73568 218007 62674 17800 110022 54557 41883 579276 348 10930 5754 17360 62071 6337 8124 1109 1628 35478 19627 482 5962 2052 22096 12960 5000 6542 10418 17646 8740 791 18927 7191 8640 7223 1578 12721 1497 2238 1302 25707 4085 5487 52231 19342 6832 2509 26349 9536 1976 11997 50471 1512 10844 248 5536 7596 2707 710
Last daily increment 0 2811 37 30 388 3980 212 349 267 0 178 352 46 356 777 0 17 2 5 42 17 7 3 2 79 26 1 2 0 30 10 14 10 13 14 17 1 45 17 6 2 1 21 3 1 1 49 2 7 54 0 44 1 50 12 3 11 60 0 21 0 11 14 12 0
Last week 0 13213 272 479 2785 21838 1015 2217 1560 1932 655 2120 226 2146 3948 1 43 19 55 399 53 40 4 4 394 107 2 31 7 169 47 21 45 42 64 84 9 384 63 78 28 8 90 6 2 6 178 27 28 314 60 44 18 189 41 14 40 307 13 93 2 52 54 33 3
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2209-162021-01-2703-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2504-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 396 1167 308 144 1833 2944 159 323 252 2240 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 133 54 343 48 16 58 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 19 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -7 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-06 to 2021-05-12

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-05 127570 695684 10311 24406 16773 5976 29479 84141 78566 104900 10764 7315 28173 122005 17245 68482 28616 14151 4279 11886 10685
2021-05-06 127600 700100 10330 24440 16920 5995 29640 84410 78680 105400 10850 7358 28310 122500 17260 69500 28880 14150 4286 11910 10690
2021-05-07 127600 703400 10370 24480 17030 6017 29750 84650 78810 105700 10930 7387 28450 122900 17280 70190 29060 14200 4293 11940 10700
2021-05-08 127700 705700 10400 24520 17080 6037 29830 84740 78810 105900 11010 7421 28590 123200 17300 70720 29180 14200 4299 11960 10700
2021-05-09 127700 707400 10430 24560 17140 6056 29890 84800 78810 106000 11090 7458 28720 123400 17310 70900 29290 14200 4306 11990 10700
2021-05-10 127700 710100 10450 24590 17240 6074 29930 85130 78930 106300 11160 7496 28840 123700 17320 71000 29410 14200 4312 12010 10710
2021-05-11 127700 712400 10470 24630 17300 6092 29990 85410 79030 106600 11240 7535 28970 124000 17350 71130 29510 14240 4319 12030 10720
2021-05-12 127700 714200 10490 24660 17430 6110 30050 85630 79190 106800 11310 7575 29090 124200 17370 71570 29650 14290 4325 12060 10740

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-06 to 2021-05-12

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-05-05 414399 24437 26726 76015 230168 46349 73568 218007 62674 17800 110022 54557 41883 579276 10930 17360 62071 6337 8124 35478 19627 5962 22096 12960 5000 6542 10418 17646 8740 18927 7191 8640 7223 12721 25707 4085 5487 52231 19342 6832 26349 9536 11997 50471 10844 5536 7596 2707
2021-05-06 417600 24490 26920 76350 234200 46510 74110 218700 63190 17900 110400 54650 42230 580100 10940 17390 62140 6340 8135 35520 19700 5969 22110 12970 5000 6568 10430 17660 8756 19010 7199 8643 7228 12750 25750 4089 5500 52280 19340 6835 26410 9547 12020 50530 10860 5544 7600 2717
2021-05-07 420600 24540 27040 76620 238800 46600 74540 219300 63530 18050 110800 54710 42560 580800 10940 17400 62250 6346 8146 35580 19740 5977 22130 12980 5007 6583 10440 17670 8773 19030 7209 8649 7234 12780 25780 4093 5508 52360 19340 6835 26460 9561 12030 50590 10880 5555 7602 2722
2021-05-08 423400 24570 27150 76920 243100 46720 74880 219700 63850 18170 111200 54760 42890 581500 10960 17420 62330 6353 8146 35650 19780 5984 22150 12990 5008 6603 10440 17680 8790 19150 7217 8659 7237 12780 25820 4093 5508 52420 19340 6853 26490 9573 12030 50640 10890 5555 7616 2724
2021-05-09 424600 24590 27250 77250 247300 46860 75260 219900 64160 18280 111500 54780 43220 581800 10960 17420 62390 6356 8146 35670 19790 5990 22170 12990 5009 6611 10440 17700 8796 19150 7224 8666 7237 12780 25830 4093 5508 52480 19340 6853 26500 9584 12030 50650 10910 5556 7616 2731
2021-05-10 425800 24650 27340 77670 251500 46990 75640 220000 64470 18390 111800 54820 43540 582300 10960 17420 62400 6358 8161 35710 19810 5996 22190 13000 5013 6622 10450 17710 8805 19160 7225 8669 7243 12820 25850 4096 5516 52530 19340 6868 26520 9595 12040 50680 10920 5566 7616 2731
2021-05-11 428400 24700 27360 78020 255700 47140 75970 220400 64770 18490 112100 54880 43880 583100 10960 17430 62440 6371 8168 35780 19830 6001 22210 13010 5015 6633 10460 17720 8817 19280 7233 8724 7254 12830 25900 4106 5523 52590 19340 6873 26570 9605 12050 50750 10940 5585 7628 2732
2021-05-12 431200 24740 27390 78380 260000 47290 76320 220800 65070 18590 112400 54920 44210 583800 10970 17430 62500 6384 8176 35850 19870 6007 22240 13020 5030 6645 10480 17730 8835 19320 7250 8731 7256 12850 25940 4111 5530 52640 19340 6896 26620 9615 12060 50810 10960 5597 7642 2732

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-06 to 2021-05-12

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-05 127570 695684 10311 24406 16773 5976 29479 84141 78566 104900 10764 7315 28173 122005 17245 68482 28616 14151 4279 11886 10685
2021-05-06 127600 697900 10340 24440 16850 5999 29550 84400 78690 105200 10860 7357 28300 122300 17270 68940 28740 14170 4285 11920 10690
2021-05-07 127600 700000 10360 24470 16920 6016 29600 84620 78800 105500 10930 7397 28450 122500 17290 69480 28880 14210 4292 11950 10700
2021-05-08 127600 701600 10380 24490 16970 6034 29650 84720 78840 105700 11000 7437 28590 122800 17310 69930 28980 14210 4299 11990 10710
2021-05-09 127600 702900 10410 24520 17030 6049 29690 84800 78880 105900 11070 7479 28730 122900 17310 70210 29080 14210 4306 12020 10710
2021-05-10 127600 704800 10430 24540 17120 6064 29730 85090 78980 106200 11140 7519 28860 123200 17330 70470 29190 14220 4313 12060 10720
2021-05-11 127700 706900 10450 24570 17200 6083 29770 85360 79080 106400 11210 7562 28990 123500 17360 70840 29310 14260 4320 12090 10720
2021-05-12 127700 708700 10470 24600 17290 6102 29820 85610 79190 106700 11270 7607 29130 123800 17370 71360 29440 14290 4326 12130 10740

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-06 to 2021-05-12

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-05-05 414399 24437 26726 76015 230168 46349 73568 218007 62674 17800 110022 54557 41883 579276 10930 17360 62071 6337 8124 35478 19627 5962 22096 12960 5000 6542 10418 17646 8740 18927 7191 8640 7223 12721 25707 4085 5487 52231 19342 6832 26349 9536 11997 50471 10844 5536 7596 2707
2021-05-06 416800 24490 26840 76450 234000 46530 73910 218500 62900 17910 110400 54600 42240 580000 10940 17380 62150 6348 8130 35540 19660 5965 22130 12970 5003 6553 10430 17660 8755 19020 7202 8651 7226 12740 25730 4089 5497 52280 19360 6840 26390 9547 12010 50530 10860 5546 7601 2722
2021-05-07 419100 24540 26940 76800 237800 46680 74230 218900 63260 18000 110700 54640 42600 580400 10940 17390 62240 6356 8139 35610 19700 5971 22150 12970 5008 6566 10440 17670 8770 19060 7213 8658 7230 12760 25740 4094 5505 52330 19360 6884 26430 9560 12020 50570 10870 5554 7606 2732
2021-05-08 421400 24570 27020 77150 241600 46810 74480 219200 63500 18080 111100 54690 42950 580800 10960 17400 62310 6364 8143 35670 19730 5976 22180 12980 5012 6582 10440 17680 8784 19150 7221 8666 7232 12760 25760 4097 5506 52380 19370 6922 26460 9572 12030 50610 10880 5555 7619 2737
2021-05-09 422700 24590 27100 77500 245300 46940 74760 219300 63790 18160 111400 54710 43300 580900 10960 17410 62370 6369 8146 35710 19740 5980 22200 12990 5015 6591 10440 17690 8794 19180 7228 8673 7233 12760 25770 4099 5507 52420 19380 6954 26480 9584 12040 50620 10900 5556 7619 2743
2021-05-10 424000 24650 27180 77850 249000 47100 75040 219400 64060 18250 111700 54750 43650 581200 10960 17410 62370 6373 8156 35750 19770 5984 22220 12990 5019 6603 10450 17700 8804 19220 7229 8679 7238 12790 25780 4103 5514 52460 19380 7007 26500 9595 12040 50640 10910 5562 7621 2746
2021-05-11 426700 24700 27220 78180 252900 47270 75320 219800 64290 18330 112100 54800 44010 581600 10960 17420 62410 6383 8164 35810 19790 5989 22240 13000 5021 6616 10460 17720 8817 19300 7236 8705 7248 12810 25800 4109 5523 52510 19390 7040 26550 9605 12050 50680 10920 5571 7626 2749
2021-05-12 429200 24750 27260 78500 256900 47440 75630 220100 64550 18420 112400 54850 44360 582100 10970 17430 62450 6391 8173 35880 19830 5993 22260 13010 5027 6630 10470 17730 8834 19340 7253 8714 7251 12840 25830 4115 5530 52550 19390 7090 26610 9618 12060 50720 10930 5579 7638 2755

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths