COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-05-09


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-05-09

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-04-1412-192021-04-082021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-122021-01-282021-04-172021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 126 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 79 76 254 56 723 99 517 279 158 140 52 104 10 96
Days since peak 110 164 143 186 32 132 61 116 114 186 139 173 25 141 31 110 159 121 27 101 22 109 156 32 18 174
Last total 127605 701862 10382 24551 16929 6036 29667 84844 2497 78792 922 105645 11029 7469 28602 4921 122833 17323 70012 16992 28966 14173 4293 12019 767 10706
Last daily increment 2 872 8 40 27 16 20 55 0 0 0 115 51 45 98 2 139 4 146 1 63 0 7 29 0 2
Last week 66 10014 122 229 381 108 302 1239 7 499 7 1241 442 251 694 15 1400 134 1907 15 586 125 24 212 10 51
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-29 --12-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 80 0 6 -6 204 3 68 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-05-09

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-082021-01-162021-03-292021-05-03 --2021-04-0411-182021-04-102021-04-222021-04-0912-172021-01-142021-05-032021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 3051 147 116 534 277 473 1608 354 229 552 564 360 3335 14 134 43 154 607 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 350 147 106 43 8 126 114 54 46 15 96 27 25 26 1568 31 41 192 192 1304 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 248 31 113 41 6 35 172 29 17 30 143 115 6 114 24 96 146 114 74 151 118 95 138 108 104 103 36 150 150 144 46 52 174 262 143 61 153 61 67 115 30 96 151 157 345 318 144 116 113 144 32 33 116 97 157 93 110 150 67 133 131 152 58 122
Last total 910 422340 24577 27218 77854 246116 47012 74910 218985 64103 18472 111425 54735 43029 581754 349 10978 5761 17409 62314 6357 8137 1110 1636 35731 19716 485 5985 2061 22223 13003 5017 6586 10433 17670 8801 795 19204 7231 8651 7228 1592 12780 1499 2244 1309 25801 4098 5498 52404 19426 6832 2530 26493 9592 1980 12024 50643 1515 10895 249 5561 7652 2726 710
Last daily increment 0 1024 23 117 495 3769 170 386 57 277 203 328 48 283 238 0 0 1 2 34 2 0 0 0 31 -1 1 1 0 30 12 0 8 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 -1 1 10 0 0 34 0 0 2 9 6 0 0 17 1 10 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 0 13718 243 559 2690 23708 1063 2035 1640 1728 947 2084 283 1838 4188 1 65 14 65 347 51 25 4 10 424 129 4 26 9 176 65 31 61 40 43 91 5 454 68 73 21 18 89 5 6 9 185 25 25 280 144 44 28 244 68 10 50 312 9 88 1 57 85 40 3
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2209-132021-01-2703-2110-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 389 1153 308 144 1833 2944 159 323 253 2240 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 96 134 54 343 48 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 19 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -7 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-10 to 2021-05-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-09 127605 701862 10382 24551 16929 6036 29667 84844 78792 105645 11029 7469 28602 122833 17323 70012 28966 14173 4293 12019 10706
2021-05-10 127600 703800 10400 24590 17100 6053 29740 85170 78890 106100 11100 7511 28690 123000 17330 70460 29000 14180 4299 12050 10720
2021-05-11 127700 705700 10440 24630 17200 6078 29830 85450 78990 106500 11200 7555 28800 123300 17360 70880 29050 14220 4310 12090 10730
2021-05-12 127700 707700 10470 24660 17330 6098 29900 85670 79150 106700 11280 7597 28900 123500 17380 71420 29120 14270 4318 12130 10750
2021-05-13 127700 709800 10490 24700 17370 6117 29950 85910 79290 106900 11350 7638 28990 123700 17400 71980 29150 14280 4325 12160 10750
2021-05-14 127700 712000 10520 24740 17460 6135 30030 86120 79380 107200 11430 7679 29090 123800 17410 72410 29200 14310 4332 12200 10760
2021-05-15 127700 713300 10540 24770 17460 6152 30060 86210 79380 107300 11500 7719 29160 123900 17440 72770 29220 14310 4338 12230 10760
2021-05-16 127700 713800 10560 24800 17480 6169 30080 86260 79390 107400 11570 7760 29260 124000 17440 72930 29290 14310 4343 12260 10760

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-10 to 2021-05-16

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-05-09 422340 24577 27218 77854 246116 47012 74910 218985 64103 18472 111425 54735 43029 581754 10978 17409 62314 6357 8137 35731 19716 5985 22223 13003 5017 6586 10433 17670 8801 19204 7231 8651 7228 12780 25801 4098 5498 52404 19426 6832 2530 26493 9592 12024 50643 10895 5561 7652 2726
2021-05-10 425000 24650 27350 78310 249900 47180 75280 219300 64430 18580 111800 54780 43270 582300 10980 17420 62370 6362 8156 35760 19770 5994 22240 13000 5017 6602 10440 17680 8813 19240 7235 8656 7234 12810 25830 4103 5511 52450 19450 6850 2530 26520 9604 12040 50680 10910 5569 7652 2726
2021-05-11 428600 24710 27390 78640 253400 47310 75740 219900 64770 18610 112200 54850 43490 583200 10980 17440 62440 6374 8164 35830 19800 6001 22250 13010 5017 6619 10450 17700 8827 19350 7243 8710 7247 12830 25880 4111 5522 52530 19470 6857 2534 26580 9617 12050 50750 10930 5586 7662 2728
2021-05-12 431900 24750 27420 79020 257100 47460 76150 220200 65090 18690 112500 54900 43710 583900 10990 17440 62490 6387 8172 35900 19840 6007 22270 13030 5030 6633 10460 17710 8845 19390 7260 8721 7249 12850 25930 4116 5530 52590 19490 6902 2536 26640 9629 12070 50820 10950 5597 7676 2741
2021-05-13 434700 24800 27600 79420 260700 47600 76520 220500 65390 18770 112900 54960 43930 584700 11000 17460 62570 6396 8178 35960 19870 6013 22300 13030 5031 6644 10470 17730 8864 19500 7272 8730 7252 12870 25960 4119 5535 52640 19500 6907 2539 26690 9640 12090 50870 10960 5608 7687 2748
2021-05-14 437300 24840 27700 79820 264300 47750 76890 221000 65700 18870 113200 55020 44150 585400 11010 17480 62640 6404 8186 36030 19920 6019 22330 13040 5044 6658 10480 17740 8880 19520 7283 8736 7255 12900 25990 4125 5544 52690 19520 6917 2546 26730 9651 12090 50920 10980 5619 7695 2755
2021-05-15 439800 24870 27790 80240 268000 47910 77250 221200 66000 18970 113500 55030 44380 586000 11020 17490 62700 6410 8186 36100 19950 6025 22350 13050 5046 6678 10480 17750 8896 19640 7291 8745 7255 12900 26010 4125 5544 52740 19540 6934 2552 26760 9663 12090 50960 11000 5619 7718 2763
2021-05-16 440600 24890 27890 80660 271700 48060 77610 221300 66290 19080 113800 55060 44600 586200 11020 17500 62740 6413 8186 36130 19950 6031 22380 13060 5047 6687 10480 17760 8899 19640 7297 8745 7255 12900 26020 4125 5544 52790 19560 6934 2554 26760 9674 12090 50980 11020 5619 7718 2763

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-10 to 2021-05-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-09 127605 701862 10382 24551 16929 6036 29667 84844 78792 105645 11029 7469 28602 122833 17323 70012 28966 14173 4293 12019 10706
2021-05-10 127600 703200 10400 24580 17010 6051 29700 85140 78870 105900 11100 7510 28700 123000 17340 70150 29030 14170 4299 12050 10720
2021-05-11 127600 705000 10420 24610 17090 6072 29750 85420 78960 106200 11170 7553 28830 123300 17370 70440 29120 14210 4307 12080 10730
2021-05-12 127600 706700 10440 24640 17180 6092 29800 85650 79080 106400 11250 7596 28930 123500 17380 70820 29220 14260 4314 12110 10740
2021-05-13 127700 708400 10460 24670 17230 6109 29850 85900 79200 106600 11320 7637 29040 123800 17400 71200 29290 14270 4320 12140 10750
2021-05-14 127700 710200 10480 24690 17320 6127 29920 86120 79280 106900 11390 7677 29150 124000 17420 71590 29390 14290 4326 12170 10760
2021-05-15 127700 711800 10500 24720 17370 6142 29960 86220 79330 107100 11460 7719 29260 124200 17440 71970 29470 14290 4332 12200 10770
2021-05-16 127700 712700 10520 24740 17430 6158 30000 86300 79370 107300 11530 7762 29360 124400 17450 72210 29560 14300 4337 12240 10770

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-10 to 2021-05-16

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-05-09 422340 24577 27218 77854 246116 47012 74910 218985 64103 18472 111425 54735 43029 581754 10978 17409 62314 6357 8137 35731 19716 5985 22223 13003 5017 6586 10433 17670 8801 19204 7231 8651 7228 12780 25801 4098 5498 52404 19426 6832 2530 26493 9592 12024 50643 10895 5561 7652 2726
2021-05-10 423500 24630 27320 78330 250300 47170 75240 219100 64430 18600 111800 54770 43330 582100 10980 17410 62330 6361 8147 35780 19740 5989 22250 13010 5020 6596 10440 17680 8810 19250 7233 8655 7232 12820 25810 4101 5506 52450 19440 6833 2532 26510 9602 12030 50670 10910 5567 7654 2729
2021-05-11 426400 24680 27360 78720 254600 47330 75530 219500 64670 18670 112100 54820 43660 582600 10990 17430 62380 6371 8155 35850 19760 5993 22270 13020 5021 6606 10450 17690 8823 19330 7242 8684 7243 12830 25840 4108 5515 52490 19450 6836 2535 26560 9612 12040 50730 10920 5580 7659 2733
2021-05-12 429100 24730 27410 79120 258700 47510 75790 219800 64890 18760 112400 54860 43990 583100 11000 17430 62430 6382 8163 35920 19800 5997 22290 13030 5027 6617 10460 17700 8839 19390 7259 8692 7245 12860 25860 4112 5522 52540 19460 6855 2538 26610 9624 12050 50780 10930 5589 7670 2737
2021-05-13 431400 24770 27520 79510 262900 47660 76030 220100 65110 18860 112700 54900 44300 583600 11010 17440 62510 6391 8169 35980 19830 6003 22330 13040 5029 6625 10470 17720 8854 19480 7271 8700 7248 12870 25880 4116 5527 52580 19470 6860 2541 26660 9636 12060 50820 10940 5597 7678 2743
2021-05-14 433700 24820 27600 79910 267000 47830 76250 220600 65330 18950 113100 54950 44610 584000 11010 17460 62580 6399 8177 36050 19870 6008 22350 13050 5037 6637 10470 17730 8869 19520 7281 8705 7251 12900 25890 4122 5537 52620 19490 6870 2545 26700 9647 12070 50860 10960 5604 7683 2746
2021-05-15 436200 24850 27670 80320 271100 47980 76480 221000 65620 19060 113400 54980 44920 584400 11020 17470 62640 6406 8182 36110 19900 6013 22380 13050 5039 6652 10480 17740 8884 19610 7290 8713 7252 12910 25910 4124 5540 52660 19500 6882 2549 26740 9658 12080 50890 10970 5606 7699 2750
2021-05-16 437500 24880 27750 80740 275300 48130 76720 221100 65860 19160 113800 55010 45250 584600 11030 17470 62700 6412 8185 36140 19920 6017 22400 13060 5041 6661 10480 17750 8894 19650 7298 8718 7252 12910 25910 4126 5541 52700 19510 6883 2551 26760 9669 12080 50900 10980 5607 7699 2752

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths