COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-05-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-05-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-1212-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-042021-05-022021-04-132021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-04-172021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 125 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 84 44 256 56 723 99 570 279 162 140 52 105 10 96
Days since peak 114 168 147 190 31 136 65 120 118 190 143 177 9 11 30 114 163 125 30 105 26 113 160 36 22 178
Last total 127651 708232 10444 24645 17194 6089 29825 85853 2499 79281 930 106481 11266 7623 28970 4937 123745 17413 71021 16999 29308 14267 4308 12135 774 10728
Last daily increment 11 1598 16 15 44 14 38 402 0 73 0 131 55 34 82 0 201 14 342 1 75 0 4 39 0 3
Last week 53 8691 93 162 308 76 217 1194 4 489 8 1111 356 235 567 19 1275 123 1576 10 509 94 23 189 7 26
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 68 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-05-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 -- --2021-04-042021-04-262021-04-102021-04-222021-04-0912-172021-01-142021-04-282021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-03-032021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 277 408 1528 352 223 552 564 349 3335 14 134 43 154 607 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 350 147 106 43 8 126 114 54 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 31 42 192 193 1341 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 252 37 117 45 39 17 33 21 34 147 119 15 118 28 100 150 118 78 155 122 99 142 112 108 107 40 154 154 148 50 56 178 266 147 65 157 65 71 119 34 100 155 161 349 322 148 120 117 148 36 37 120 101 161 97 114 154 71 137 135 156 62 126
Last total 910 430417 24802 27520 79760 262317 47716 76231 219901 64898 18821 112795 55012 44059 584487 353 11001 5783 17438 62573 6423 8167 1115 1648 35929 19808 486 5997 2064 22320 13033 5030 6637 10469 17710 8840 798 19476 7274 8683 7247 1597 12853 1503 2278 1325 25906 4112 5523 52568 19439 6878 2572 26666 9619 1989 12072 50840 1540 10961 252 5623 7706 2751 712
Last daily increment 0 2383 47 136 499 4000 99 297 311 0 107 385 44 238 802 0 4 6 8 101 21 7 0 4 47 19 0 3 0 35 5 0 7 6 10 12 0 119 19 6 3 2 23 1 30 4 24 1 8 44 0 0 12 57 16 1 9 55 5 27 0 12 19 3 0
Last week 0 11303 279 516 2893 24047 1053 1990 1244 1922 722 2060 325 1594 3586 4 35 24 47 353 71 30 5 19 294 120 3 14 3 149 50 13 78 36 54 59 4 396 58 37 19 5 73 4 31 20 137 14 25 246 13 46 50 213 53 9 48 257 26 87 3 62 81 32 2
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2209-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-232021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 389 1167 308 473 1833 2944 159 323 253 2240 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 134 71 343 48 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 19 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -7 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-13 127651 708232 10444 24645 17194 6089 29825 85853 79281 106481 11266 7623 28970 123745 17413 71021 29308 14267 4308 12135 10728
2021-05-14 127700 712200 10460 24680 17340 6105 29930 86170 79420 107000 11330 7662 29090 124200 17430 71660 29410 14350 4313 12170 10750
2021-05-15 127700 714700 10500 24730 17400 6133 29990 86300 79430 107200 11420 7711 29190 124500 17450 72200 29500 14350 4325 12220 10770
2021-05-16 127700 716200 10520 24780 17450 6155 30020 86370 79430 107300 11500 7755 29280 124700 17460 72400 29570 14350 4333 12270 10770
2021-05-17 127700 718300 10540 24810 17560 6173 30060 86660 79530 107700 11570 7796 29370 124900 17470 72450 29630 14370 4340 12300 10780
2021-05-18 127700 720500 10570 24850 17630 6191 30110 86940 79700 107900 11640 7836 29460 125100 17510 72760 29740 14370 4347 12340 10790
2021-05-19 127700 722500 10580 24880 17690 6207 30150 87040 79830 108000 11710 7875 29560 125400 17520 73070 29830 14370 4352 12370 10800
2021-05-20 127800 724100 10600 24910 17730 6223 30190 87370 79940 108200 11780 7914 29640 125600 17540 73430 29910 14370 4357 12410 10800

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-05-13 430417 24802 27520 79760 262317 47716 76231 219901 64898 18821 112795 55012 44059 584487 11001 5783 17438 62573 6423 8167 35929 19808 22320 13033 6637 10469 17710 8840 19476 7274 8683 12853 2278 1325 25906 5523 52568 6878 2572 26666 9619 12072 50840 1540 10961 5623 7706 2751
2021-05-14 433700 24860 27640 80190 266400 47880 76570 220500 65350 18940 113200 55040 44330 585300 11030 5785 17470 62640 6423 8183 36030 19860 22350 13050 6645 10480 17720 8867 19530 7286 8683 12890 2288 1325 25950 5536 52610 6899 2585 26710 9630 12090 50910 1550 10980 5630 7711 2751
2021-05-15 436500 24890 27740 80600 270800 48040 77080 220900 65750 19030 113600 55050 44610 586000 11040 5787 17480 62700 6423 8186 36090 19900 22370 13050 6666 10480 17740 8888 19660 7294 8684 12890 2296 1327 25990 5539 52680 6917 2594 26750 9648 12090 50960 1554 10990 5630 7733 2751
2021-05-16 437700 24910 27850 81000 275100 48200 77500 221000 66080 19140 113900 55080 44870 586300 11040 5789 17490 62730 6423 8186 36120 19910 22400 13060 6675 10480 17750 8892 19660 7301 8685 12890 2303 1328 26000 5540 52740 6925 2600 26760 9661 12090 50970 1559 11000 5630 7733 2751
2021-05-17 438700 24980 27950 81400 279300 48360 77880 221200 66380 19240 114200 55140 45130 586700 11040 5794 17490 62750 6423 8203 36170 19920 22410 13060 6687 10490 17760 8896 19690 7301 8687 12910 2308 1329 26020 5549 52790 6937 2607 26780 9673 12100 51000 1563 11020 5645 7733 2751
2021-05-18 441200 25020 27990 81810 283600 48520 78250 221600 66670 19350 114500 55210 45390 587400 11050 5802 17500 62790 6424 8206 36220 19950 22430 13070 6707 10500 17770 8906 19800 7311 8724 12930 2316 1332 26050 5555 52840 6955 2615 26830 9684 12120 51060 1567 11030 5655 7741 2751
2021-05-19 443600 25070 28010 82220 287900 48680 78600 221900 66950 19460 114800 55260 45640 588200 11060 5809 17500 62860 6436 8211 36280 20000 22460 13080 6717 10520 17780 8923 19820 7326 8729 12950 2330 1338 26090 5560 52890 7009 2621 26870 9694 12120 51120 1573 11050 5672 7763 2753
2021-05-20 445800 25110 28150 82630 292200 48840 78940 222200 67230 19570 115100 55310 45890 588900 11070 5816 17510 62950 6453 8217 36320 20020 22490 13090 6726 10530 17800 8936 19940 7342 8737 12970 2342 1342 26120 5568 52930 7009 2627 26930 9704 12130 51170 1575 11070 5685 7780 2756

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-13 127651 708232 10444 24645 17194 6089 29825 85853 79281 106481 11266 7623 28970 123745 17413 71021 29308 14267 4308 12135 10728
2021-05-14 127700 710100 10460 24670 17260 6104 29880 86120 79370 106700 11330 7660 29060 124000 17430 71330 29380 14300 4313 12170 10730
2021-05-15 127700 711600 10480 24700 17300 6119 29920 86240 79410 106900 11420 7700 29140 124200 17460 71650 29450 14320 4319 12200 10740
2021-05-16 127700 712600 10500 24720 17350 6135 29950 86310 79450 107100 11490 7742 29230 124300 17460 71820 29510 14330 4325 12230 10740
2021-05-17 127700 714000 10520 24750 17430 6150 29990 86580 79530 107300 11560 7779 29310 124500 17470 71940 29560 14350 4330 12270 10750
2021-05-18 127700 715500 10540 24770 17480 6165 30030 86840 79650 107500 11630 7821 29400 124800 17510 72190 29630 14360 4334 12300 10760
2021-05-19 127700 717100 10550 24800 17560 6184 30070 87030 79750 107700 11710 7863 29490 125000 17520 72500 29700 14400 4339 12330 10780
2021-05-20 127700 718700 10570 24820 17610 6200 30120 87300 79860 107900 11780 7900 29580 125300 17540 72830 29750 14410 4343 12360 10790

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-05-13 430417 24802 27520 79760 262317 47716 76231 219901 64898 18821 112795 55012 44059 584487 11001 5783 17438 62573 6423 8167 35929 19808 22320 13033 6637 10469 17710 8840 19476 7274 8683 12853 2278 1325 25906 5523 52568 6878 2572 26666 9619 12072 50840 1540 10961 5623 7706 2751
2021-05-14 432500 24850 27610 80230 266400 47860 76510 220400 65190 18930 113100 55060 44300 585100 11010 5787 17450 62650 6436 8174 36000 19840 22350 13050 6647 10480 17720 8855 19520 7287 8686 12890 2289 1327 25930 5532 52610 6885 2583 26710 9630 12080 50890 1546 10980 5634 7717 2759
2021-05-15 434700 24880 27690 80670 270500 48020 76780 220600 65550 19040 113500 55080 44600 585400 11020 5789 17460 62710 6443 8178 36060 19870 22380 13050 6660 10480 17730 8871 19610 7295 8693 12890 2291 1329 25940 5532 52660 6891 2589 26740 9642 12090 50920 1548 10990 5635 7739 2765
2021-05-16 435700 24900 27770 81110 274500 48170 77040 220700 65810 19150 113800 55120 44880 585600 11020 5790 17470 62740 6448 8181 36090 19880 22400 13060 6668 10480 17740 8879 19640 7301 8697 12890 2292 1329 25950 5533 52700 6893 2593 26760 9652 12090 50930 1550 11000 5636 7739 2768
2021-05-17 436800 24970 27850 81560 278600 48340 77280 220800 66010 19270 114100 55170 45140 585800 11030 5793 17470 62760 6453 8192 36140 19890 22420 13060 6678 10490 17750 8887 19690 7302 8703 12900 2293 1329 25950 5539 52730 6898 2598 26790 9661 12100 50940 1552 11010 5646 7739 2771
2021-05-18 439200 25010 27890 81980 282800 48520 77490 221100 66230 19380 114400 55210 45430 586300 11030 5797 17480 62800 6463 8197 36190 19910 22440 13080 6691 10500 17760 8899 19770 7310 8721 12910 2294 1332 25970 5544 52770 6904 2604 26830 9670 12110 50990 1556 11020 5653 7742 2774
2021-05-19 441600 25060 27930 82410 287100 48680 77700 221400 66460 19500 114700 55260 45730 586800 11040 5800 17490 62870 6476 8204 36260 19950 22470 13090 6701 10510 17770 8915 19820 7328 8731 12940 2297 1336 26000 5551 52810 6940 2609 26870 9680 12120 51040 1559 11030 5663 7752 2780
2021-05-20 443800 25100 28030 82840 291400 48840 77940 221600 66660 19620 115100 55300 46010 587200 11040 5803 17500 62950 6488 8211 36320 19970 22500 13090 6709 10520 17780 8930 19910 7341 8738 12960 2300 1338 26010 5556 52850 6944 2614 26910 9690 12130 51080 1561 11050 5670 7761 2786

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths