COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-05-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-05-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-272021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-04-202021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 81 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 163 140 52 105 12 96
Days since peak 121 175 154 197 43 143 72 127 125 197 150 184 17 23 48 121 170 132 37 112 30 120 167 43 29 185
Last total 127701 715928 10527 24794 17447 6199 29967 87135 2506 79601 929 107390 11641 7828 29380 4941 124810 17506 72500 17014 29777 14351 4345 12272 781 10760
Last daily increment 7 1038 19 26 31 23 19 227 1 33 0 0 54 36 51 0 164 18 250 1 61 2 7 10 0 4
Last week 33 6342 72 130 204 92 110 1105 7 262 -2 738 319 164 339 0 883 83 1189 15 364 76 31 104 7 30
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 68 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-05-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-05-03 --2021-04-042021-04-222021-04-102021-04-192021-04-0912-172021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-03-1811-1608-2012-172021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-04-132021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-2512-162021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 535 277 416 1512 362 223 552 564 353 3336 14 134 43 154 607 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 350 147 106 43 8 126 114 31 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 31 41 192 193 1341 20 212 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 259 44 124 52 17 46 28 40 31 41 154 126 23 125 35 107 157 125 85 162 129 106 149 119 115 114 47 161 161 155 57 63 185 273 154 72 164 72 37 126 41 107 162 168 356 329 155 127 124 155 43 44 127 108 168 104 121 161 78 144 142 163 69 133
Last total 910 444094 25093 28169 83233 291331 48887 77994 221080 67034 19641 115393 55568 45626 588539 369 11077 5808 17509 62817 6478 8207 1125 1652 36347 19936 489 6025 2080 22536 13108 5054 6693 10517 17790 8913 816 19842 7333 8831 7278 1604 12950 1507 2234 1340 26053 4126 5550 52789 19626 6918 2606 26924 9669 2001 12130 51128 1555 11068 255 5687 7734 2769 713
Last daily increment 0 2403 43 172 490 4209 218 229 230 0 134 390 61 207 665 0 32 3 12 52 6 4 1 0 76 22 0 7 6 42 7 0 15 8 8 6 9 82 8 6 9 2 12 1 -3 1 23 4 5 30 0 0 5 50 2 7 10 47 2 20 0 17 2 2 0
Last week 0 11466 236 522 2983 25124 1064 1561 921 1426 683 2211 444 1325 3207 16 53 18 62 184 46 35 9 1 347 105 2 27 11 167 59 15 50 39 60 61 17 334 50 140 24 6 88 3 -44 12 121 13 20 173 0 40 24 231 42 10 51 225 15 77 3 69 27 13 1
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2209-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-2309-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-1304-1404-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 389 1167 308 473 1833 2944 159 323 253 2240 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 10 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 9 18 3562 43 40 23 137 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 96 134 71 343 48 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 4 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -1 11 1 1 51 3 5 6 12 -7 2 13 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-20 127701 715928 10527 24794 17447 6199 29967 87135 79601 107390 11641 7828 29380 124810 17506 72500 29777 14351 4345 12272 10760
2021-05-21 127700 719900 10540 24810 17570 6214 30010 87470 79800 107800 11680 7856 29440 125300 17540 73020 29930 14380 4350 12280 10770
2021-05-22 127700 722100 10570 24830 17620 6231 30030 87610 79840 108100 11720 7882 29490 125500 17560 73440 30030 14390 4355 12300 10780
2021-05-23 127700 723500 10590 24850 17640 6248 30030 87700 79860 108200 11750 7909 29540 125700 17570 73550 30090 14390 4360 12320 10780
2021-05-24 127800 725400 10610 24870 17740 6263 30030 87970 79980 108500 11790 7934 29580 125900 17580 73580 30150 14390 4365 12330 10800
2021-05-25 127800 727400 10630 24890 17790 6277 30050 88280 80100 108700 11830 7959 29650 126200 17610 73840 30230 14430 4369 12350 10810
2021-05-26 127800 729200 10640 24910 17830 6291 30050 88500 80180 108800 11860 7984 29690 126400 17620 74130 30300 14480 4373 12360 10810
2021-05-27 127800 730100 10660 24930 17860 6306 30080 88720 80240 108800 11900 8009 29740 126600 17640 74390 30360 14480 4378 12360 10820

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-05-20 444094 25093 28169 83233 291331 48887 77994 221080 67034 19641 115393 55568 45626 588539 11077 17509 62817 6478 8207 36347 19936 6025 22536 13108 6693 10517 17790 8913 19842 7333 8831 7278 12950 26053 5550 52789 6918 2606 26924 9669 12130 51128 11068 5687 7734
2021-05-21 445100 25160 28270 83700 295800 49060 78240 221600 67410 19760 115700 55570 45840 589500 11090 17520 62950 6490 8216 36420 19970 6030 22570 13120 6702 10530 17800 8934 19910 7349 8945 7282 12970 26100 5560 52830 6941 2611 26950 9676 12140 51200 11080 5688 7757
2021-05-22 446900 25190 28360 84090 301100 49200 78500 222000 67710 19860 116000 55570 46060 590100 11100 17530 63010 6499 8217 36480 20010 6034 22610 13120 6714 10530 17810 8956 20050 7356 8975 7282 12980 26130 5560 52900 6951 2613 26980 9694 12140 51250 11100 5689 7779
2021-05-23 447300 25200 28460 84510 306000 49350 78740 222100 67990 19970 116400 55570 46280 590300 11100 17530 63050 6504 8217 36500 20010 6039 22630 13130 6722 10530 17820 8962 20050 7365 9000 7282 12980 26140 5560 52960 6962 2616 27010 9706 12150 51260 11120 5690 7780
2021-05-24 447600 25270 28560 84930 310700 49500 78980 222200 68260 20080 116600 55570 46480 590700 11100 17530 63070 6504 8236 36550 20020 6043 22640 13140 6731 10540 17830 8966 20080 7365 9000 7285 13000 26160 5565 53000 6978 2620 27040 9717 12160 51290 11130 5708 7782
2021-05-25 449800 25300 28590 85360 315400 49650 79210 222600 68530 20180 117000 55590 46690 591500 11100 17550 63100 6512 8240 36630 20050 6048 22660 13150 6746 10550 17840 8980 20180 7378 9053 7295 13020 26190 5572 53050 6986 2625 27080 9726 12160 51340 11150 5721 7797
2021-05-26 451700 25350 28620 85800 320100 49810 79440 222700 68800 20290 117300 55650 46890 592100 11110 17560 63140 6532 8245 36680 20090 6053 22680 13160 6753 10560 17850 8992 20200 7393 9079 7297 13050 26220 5576 53080 7037 2629 27120 9734 12170 51400 11160 5740 7807
2021-05-27 454100 25390 28770 86240 324800 49960 79670 223000 69060 20400 117600 55710 47090 592800 11130 17570 63200 6543 8249 36740 20110 6057 22720 13170 6767 10570 17860 9001 20290 7403 9079 7303 13060 26240 5581 53120 7037 2634 27170 9742 12180 51450 11180 5755 7816

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESISKCH
2021-05-20 127701 715928 10527 24794 17447 6199 29967 87135 79601 107390 11641 7828 29380 124810 17506 72500 29777 14351 4345 12272 10760
2021-05-21 127700 717300 10540 24810 17500 6217 29990 87330 79660 107500 11700 7857 29420 125000 17520 72740 29850 14370 4350 12290 10760
2021-05-22 127700 718500 10560 24830 17540 6228 30020 87390 79690 107700 11770 7880 29460 125100 17540 72990 29910 14370 4354 12330 10770
2021-05-23 127700 719400 10570 24840 17570 6242 30040 87450 79730 107800 11830 7904 29500 125200 17550 73110 29950 14370 4357 12360 10770
2021-05-24 127700 720400 10590 24850 17630 6255 30060 87670 79800 108000 11890 7929 29540 125400 17560 73190 29990 14380 4361 12380 10780
2021-05-25 127700 721700 10600 24870 17680 6270 30090 87920 79900 108200 11950 7956 29610 125500 17590 73400 30050 14410 4364 12410 10790
2021-05-26 127700 723100 10610 24880 17730 6283 30120 88060 79980 108300 12010 7984 29660 125800 17610 73650 30110 14450 4368 12440 10800
2021-05-27 127800 724200 10620 24900 17770 6296 30150 88320 80060 108500 12060 8010 29710 125900 17630 73910 30170 14450 4372 12460 10800

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-05-20 444094 25093 28169 83233 291331 48887 77994 221080 67034 19641 115393 55568 45626 588539 11077 17509 62817 6478 8207 36347 19936 6025 22536 13108 6693 10517 17790 8913 19842 7333 8831 7278 12950 26053 5550 52789 6918 2606 26924 9669 12130 51128 11068 5687 7734
2021-05-21 446300 25140 28270 83680 295500 49050 78160 221400 67370 19770 115800 55650 45830 589100 11090 17520 62870 6485 8212 36420 19960 6030 22580 13120 6702 10530 17800 8923 19880 7342 8854 7284 12960 26070 5556 52820 6924 2614 26960 9676 12140 51170 11080 5692 7733
2021-05-22 448300 25170 28350 84110 299900 49200 78290 221600 67580 19880 116100 55690 46040 589400 11100 17530 62910 6494 8214 36470 19990 6033 22610 13130 6713 10530 17810 8936 19970 7347 8870 7284 12970 26090 5557 52860 6930 2620 26980 9687 12140 51200 11100 5693 7743
2021-05-23 449500 25180 28430 84560 304200 49330 78430 221600 67860 20000 116400 55730 46250 589600 11100 17530 62940 6501 8216 36500 20000 6037 22630 13140 6721 10530 17820 8943 19990 7355 8883 7284 12970 26090 5557 52890 6934 2624 27020 9697 12150 51210 11110 5695 7743
2021-05-24 450400 25250 28500 85000 308500 49500 78570 221700 68030 20110 116700 55780 46450 589800 11110 17540 62950 6505 8227 36550 20010 6040 22640 13140 6729 10540 17830 8949 20020 7355 8889 7287 12980 26100 5559 52920 6941 2630 27050 9704 12160 51230 11120 5705 7743
2021-05-25 452800 25280 28550 85430 312900 49670 78700 222000 68230 20220 117000 55830 46650 590200 11110 17550 62980 6513 8231 36620 20030 6043 22670 13160 6742 10550 17840 8960 20100 7365 8905 7296 13000 26110 5565 52950 6942 2635 27080 9711 12160 51260 11140 5712 7751
2021-05-26 455000 25340 28590 85860 317300 49840 78820 222200 68440 20330 117400 55890 46860 590700 11120 17550 63040 6529 8236 36670 20060 6046 22690 13170 6751 10560 17850 8972 20140 7380 8929 7299 13020 26130 5569 52980 6974 2641 27120 9720 12170 51310 11150 5724 7759
2021-05-27 457100 25380 28680 86300 321900 49990 78940 222400 68600 20440 117700 55950 47060 591100 11120 17560 63130 6543 8241 36720 20090 6050 22720 13170 6761 10570 17860 8983 20210 7395 8945 7302 13040 26150 5574 53010 6976 2647 27160 9729 12180 51350 11160 5733 7770

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths