COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-06-11


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-06-11

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-28 --2021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 82 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 140 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 143 197 176 219 65 165 94 149 147 219 172 206 39 44 70 143 192 154 59 134 142 189 65 51 207
Last total 127884 731400 10652 25075 17893 6414 30219 89821 2523 80501 964 109472 12381 8123 29904 4941 126924 17708 74515 17044 31681 14574 4398 12433 789 10859
Last daily increment 17 609 2 7 6 3 8 128 1 36 0 74 11 13 8 0 69 3 68 1 150 9 5 0 0 6
Last week 48 3713 16 56 80 32 62 593 5 305 5 346 128 43 62 0 452 33 376 12 956 51 11 38 4 27
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2804-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-06-11

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 -- --2021-04-042021-04-252021-06-012021-04-142021-04-0912-172021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-02-052021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-2912-082021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 277 419 2593 814 223 552 564 354 3333 14 134 43 154 626 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 230 147 106 502 8 126 114 71 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 97 42 192 193 1341 20 211 93 23 113 337 9 326 2 82 60 129 9
Days since peak 281 66 146 74 68 47 10 58 63 176 148 45 147 57 129 179 147 107 184 151 128 171 141 137 136 69 183 183 177 79 10 207 295 15 94 186 94 24 148 63 129 184 190 378 351 16 149 146 177 65 66 149 130 190 126 143 183 100 166 164 185 91 155
Last total 910 484235 25863 30472 94615 367081 52566 81796 229823 188100 22507 123568 57592 48593 599180 373 11266 5859 17740 63256 6677 8260 1137 1679 36973 20448 503 6097 2116 23035 13295 5107 7147 10648 17925 9645 844 20548 7496 9023 7353 1641 13265 1520 2230 1359 26324 4297 5622 53261 20088 7325 2726 27457 9776 2026 12297 51889 1583 11283 256 5812 8013 2849 725
Last daily increment 0 2216 14 133 569 4002 193 124 243 253 195 390 182 69 436 4 14 3 -2 40 11 1 0 0 0 32 1 2 0 21 4 3 9 10 8 6 1 8 12 3 5 3 19 3 0 0 2 2 1 21 70 0 0 19 15 0 37 43 0 13 0 12 6 1 0
Last week 0 11704 177 656 3193 20322 1117 855 1065 2027 775 2203 663 525 2237 4 68 13 42 249 64 15 1 2 0 131 4 29 15 123 28 22 56 33 30 42 5 132 35 55 28 9 114 4 0 5 51 17 22 100 111 9 35 114 24 4 57 188 5 54 0 -21 59 36 6
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2209-132021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-29 --07-27 --04-2204-0904-01 --2021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 389 1153 308 473 1833 917 159 323 253 2243 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 31 18 3562 42 40 23 135 45 2 459 105 12 59 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 134 71 157 95 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 8 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 51 -88 5 6 12 -7 2 12 14 1 70 9 0 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateUKEUBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESKCH
2021-06-11 127884 731400 25075 17893 6414 30219 89821 80501 109472 12381 8123 29904 126924 17708 74515 31681 14574 12433 10859
2021-06-12 127900 732500 25090 17940 6419 30240 90030 80500 109600 12410 8133 29950 127200 17730 74750 31850 14590 12440 10860
2021-06-13 127900 733100 25110 17960 6425 30240 90110 80500 109700 12450 8145 29970 127300 17740 74860 31990 14600 12450 10870
2021-06-14 127900 733800 25130 18000 6430 30250 90270 80550 109800 12490 8156 29980 127500 17750 74920 32120 14600 12460 10870
2021-06-15 127900 734600 25140 18020 6435 30270 90430 80620 110000 12520 8167 30000 127700 17760 75020 32280 14620 12460 10880
2021-06-16 127900 735200 25160 18030 6440 30280 90580 80660 110000 12550 8176 30010 127800 17770 75150 32430 14640 12470 10880
2021-06-17 127900 735800 25170 18050 6444 30290 90680 80760 110100 12570 8186 30020 127900 17780 75210 32540 14660 12480 10890
2021-06-18 127900 736500 25180 18060 6448 30300 90780 80820 110200 12600 8195 30040 128000 17780 75280 32660 14660 12480 10890

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-06-11 484235 25863 30472 94615 367081 52566 81796 229823 188100 22507 123568 57592 48593 599180 11266 17740 63256 6677 20448 6097 23035 13295 5107 7147 10648 17925 9645 20548 7496 9023 7353 13265 26324 5622 53261 20088 2726 27457 9776 12297 51889 11283 8013 2849
2021-06-12 485800 25920 30540 95170 370400 52730 81970 230100 188500 22640 123900 57610 48680 600300 11270 17770 63260 6682 20480 6102 23070 13320 5107 7161 10650 17930 9647 20630 7509 9026 7353 13270 26350 5624 53280 20120 2726 27500 9780 12310 51940 11290 8029 2853
2021-06-13 486500 25940 30640 95700 373700 52840 82220 230200 189000 22720 124300 57620 48790 600900 11270 17770 63320 6683 20480 6103 23100 13320 5107 7162 10660 17940 9649 20640 7516 9026 7354 13270 26370 5625 53310 20150 2726 27520 9785 12310 51960 11310 8031 2854
2021-06-14 487400 25990 30730 96240 377000 52980 82440 230200 189400 22830 124600 57700 48880 601400 11280 17770 63320 6691 20480 6106 23120 13330 5119 7170 10660 17950 9649 20650 7518 9027 7361 13300 26380 5631 53340 20180 2726 27530 9789 12310 51980 11320 8043 2861
2021-06-15 489700 26020 30750 96760 380100 53120 82630 230500 189800 22940 124900 57800 48970 602000 11280 17780 63340 6701 20510 6109 23130 13340 5121 7183 10670 17960 9671 20700 7522 9050 7369 13310 26390 5635 53370 20220 2728 27560 9793 12320 52010 11330 8058 2865
2021-06-16 492200 26060 30800 97280 383200 53270 82820 230800 190200 23050 125300 57910 49060 602800 11300 17790 63360 6712 20540 6113 23150 13340 5126 7195 10680 17970 9675 20720 7529 9074 7373 13330 26420 5641 53390 20250 2737 27590 9797 12320 52060 11340 8069 2876
2021-06-17 494400 26100 30990 97800 386300 53420 82990 231100 190500 23170 125600 58000 49140 603400 11310 17810 63410 6726 20580 6117 23170 13350 5128 7211 10690 17970 9695 20760 7535 9076 7374 13340 26420 5645 53410 20290 2745 27620 9801 12330 52090 11350 8089 2881
2021-06-18 496400 26120 31100 98320 389400 53580 83160 231400 190900 23300 126000 58130 49230 603700 11320 17810 63450 6737 20620 6121 23190 13360 5133 7223 10700 17980 9700 20770 7545 9084 7378 13360 26430 5647 53430 20320 2746 27640 9804 12330 52130 11360 8099 2881

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateUKEUBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUITNLPLROSESKCH
2021-06-11 127884 731400 25075 17893 6414 30219 89821 80501 109472 12381 8123 29904 126924 17708 74515 31681 14574 12433 10859
2021-06-12 127900 732000 25080 17900 6418 30230 89890 80530 109500 12400 8131 29920 127000 17720 74580 31830 14570 12440 10860
2021-06-13 127900 732400 25100 17910 6425 30230 89930 80550 109600 12430 8137 29930 127100 17720 74640 31940 14580 12450 10860
2021-06-14 127900 733000 25100 17940 6430 30240 90040 80590 109700 12450 8143 29930 127100 17720 74670 32030 14580 12460 10870
2021-06-15 127900 733700 25110 17950 6437 30250 90170 80640 109800 12470 8148 29950 127200 17730 74720 32150 14590 12470 10870
2021-06-16 127900 734200 25120 17970 6443 30260 90310 80680 109800 12500 8154 29950 127300 17740 74810 32240 14600 12480 10880
2021-06-17 127900 734900 25130 17990 6449 30260 90420 80720 109900 12520 8161 29960 127300 17750 74880 32330 14630 12490 10880
2021-06-18 127900 735600 25140 18010 6455 30270 90540 80780 110000 12540 8168 29980 127400 17760 74930 32440 14640 12500 10890

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-06-11 484235 25863 30472 94615 367081 52566 81796 229823 188100 22507 123568 57592 48593 599180 11266 17740 63256 6677 20448 6097 23035 13295 5107 7147 10648 17925 9645 20548 7496 9023 7353 13265 26324 5622 53261 20088 2726 27457 9776 12297 51889 11283 8013 2849
2021-06-12 486100 25880 30580 95160 371000 52730 81910 230300 188500 22660 123900 57700 48670 599500 11270 17750 63280 6686 20480 6101 23060 13310 5108 7162 10650 17930 9649 20590 7508 9024 7354 13270 26330 5622 53280 20120 2730 27470 9782 12310 51910 11290 8012 2851
2021-06-13 487100 25890 30660 95650 374300 52860 82000 230400 188900 22790 124300 57740 48750 599700 11270 17760 63330 6689 20490 6103 23090 13310 5110 7178 10660 17940 9654 20600 7513 9025 7355 13270 26340 5623 53300 20130 2732 27480 9787 12310 51920 11300 8012 2853
2021-06-14 488000 25940 30740 96140 377400 53020 82090 230500 189200 22920 124600 57830 48820 599900 11280 17760 63340 6696 20500 6105 23110 13310 5117 7193 10660 17940 9659 20620 7514 9028 7361 13300 26350 5628 53320 20140 2735 27500 9791 12320 51930 11310 8016 2857
2021-06-15 490100 25960 30780 96600 380600 53180 82170 230900 189600 23050 124900 57920 48900 600100 11280 17770 63360 6705 20530 6107 23120 13320 5119 7208 10670 17950 9669 20650 7516 9040 7368 13320 26350 5631 53340 20160 2739 27520 9795 12320 51950 11320 8025 2859
2021-06-16 492400 26000 30840 97080 383800 53330 82250 231300 189900 23180 125300 58010 48970 600500 11290 17780 63370 6714 20550 6111 23140 13330 5122 7224 10670 17960 9678 20670 7521 9056 7371 13330 26360 5635 53360 20170 2746 27540 9799 12330 51980 11320 8032 2864
2021-06-17 494300 26040 30960 97580 386200 53500 82330 231800 190200 23310 125600 58090 49050 601000 11300 17790 63420 6725 20580 6114 23160 13340 5124 7239 10680 17960 9689 20710 7528 9062 7373 13340 26370 5640 53370 20190 2751 27570 9802 12330 52020 11330 8050 2868
2021-06-18 496000 26080 31030 98070 390400 53670 82400 232100 190600 23440 126000 58180 49130 601200 11310 17800 63460 6733 20610 6117 23170 13350 5128 7254 10690 17970 9697 20730 7535 9071 7375 13360 26370 5642 53390 20200 2754 27590 9807 12340 52050 11340 8069 2870

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths