COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-06-19


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-06-19

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 82 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 205 140 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 151 205 184 227 73 173 102 157 155 227 180 214 47 52 78 151 200 162 67 142 11 150 197 73 59 215
Last total 127970 734445 10679 25132 17989 6449 30278 90390 2530 80652 967 109830 12528 8169 29950 4979 127253 17726 74823 17062 32308 14574 4412 12478 790 10868
Last daily increment 14 265 2 15 2 4 3 16 2 0 0 22 20 1 0 0 28 3 41 1 96 0 1 0 0 0
Last week 66 2572 18 44 89 26 53 541 5 151 3 321 109 37 46 38 251 15 250 15 474 0 8 39 1 9
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 48 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-06-19

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 --2021-06-102021-04-042021-04-252021-06-012021-04-142021-04-0912-172021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-06-112021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-292021-06-072021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 5751 277 419 2691 814 223 552 564 354 3333 14 134 43 154 626 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 237 147 106 491 8 126 114 70 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 100 42 192 194 1341 20 211 93 23 15 337 9 326 2 82 14 129 9
Days since peak 289 74 154 82 9 76 55 18 66 71 184 156 53 155 65 137 187 155 115 192 159 136 179 149 145 144 77 191 191 185 87 18 215 303 23 102 194 102 32 156 71 137 192 198 386 359 24 157 154 185 73 74 157 138 198 8 151 191 108 174 172 12 99 163
Last total 910 500800 26042 31392 99335 386708 54291 82854 230959 189933 23538 126761 58590 49122 601741 373 11306 5874 17838 63308 6732 8269 1141 1682 36973 20624 508 6112 2122 23133 13375 5129 7180 10688 17951 9684 854 20689 7536 9056 7371 1651 13340 1523 2230 1366 26372 4316 5649 53338 20163 7354 2753 27559 9792 2027 12314 52098 1587 11343 256 5817 8047 2863 734
Last daily increment 0 2301 26 133 589 1571 248 108 0 0 153 461 149 51 170 0 0 0 16 34 9 0 0 3 0 25 1 3 0 0 29 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 8 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 15 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 0 13399 147 685 3557 12403 1412 756 809 1225 750 2447 825 401 1965 0 40 13 70 115 43 9 3 3 0 148 5 10 6 72 51 22 22 40 24 31 9 83 24 32 18 10 75 3 0 7 42 19 27 48 75 29 23 80 12 1 17 169 1 36 0 5 34 14 9
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-292021-02-0507-27 --04-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 396 1661 308 473 1833 917 159 323 253 2243 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 31 18 3562 42 40 23 135 45 2 113 459 105 12 59 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 92 134 71 158 95 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 8 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 51 -92 5 6 12 -7 2 12 14 1 6 70 9 0 5 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-20 to 2021-06-26

DateUKEUBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITPLROSK
2021-06-19 127970 734445 25132 17989 6449 30278 90390 80652 109830 12528 8169 29950 4979 127253 74823 32308 12478
2021-06-20 128000 735200 25140 18000 6454 30280 90500 80710 109900 12540 8176 29990 4979 127400 74920 32390 12480
2021-06-21 128000 735900 25150 18030 6463 30290 90670 80760 110000 12560 8193 30030 4979 127400 74980 32410 12490
2021-06-22 128000 736600 25160 18050 6469 30300 90850 80830 110100 12580 8205 30060 4979 127500 75060 32500 12500
2021-06-23 128000 737200 25160 18080 6475 30320 90980 80880 110200 12590 8215 30070 4979 127600 75140 32550 12510
2021-06-24 128000 737800 25170 18100 6481 30320 91100 80930 110200 12610 8224 30090 4992 127600 75220 32630 12520
2021-06-25 128000 738200 25180 18110 6486 30340 91210 80980 110300 12620 8231 30100 4992 127700 75260 32710 12520
2021-06-26 128000 738500 25190 18110 6491 30340 91230 80990 110300 12640 8238 30100 4992 127700 75310 32820 12530

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-20 to 2021-06-26

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-TXUS-VAUS-WI
2021-06-19 500800 26042 31392 99335 386708 54291 82854 230959 189933 23538 126761 58590 49122 601741 11306 17838 63308 6732 20624 23133 13375 5129 7180 10688 17951 9684 20689 7536 9056 13340 26372 5649 53338 20163 7354 2753 27559 52098 11343 8047
2021-06-20 502100 26080 31500 99900 388800 54530 82960 231500 190500 23670 127000 58590 49160 602300 11310 17840 63350 6740 20640 23170 13380 5129 7190 10690 17960 9691 20750 7549 9067 13350 26390 5649 53350 20170 7360 2759 27590 52140 11350 8070
2021-06-21 503000 26120 31580 100300 391800 54740 83080 231600 191000 23820 127300 58650 49210 602700 11320 17840 63360 6746 20640 23200 13380 5144 7198 10700 17970 9694 20770 7554 9075 13380 26400 5653 53370 20170 7366 2761 27610 52150 11370 8090
2021-06-22 505500 26150 31630 100700 394400 54960 83190 232000 191400 23960 127700 58790 49250 603100 11330 17850 63380 6756 20660 23210 13390 5145 7210 10700 17980 9705 20810 7556 9099 13390 26410 5657 53390 20170 7368 2768 27640 52180 11380 8106
2021-06-23 508300 26200 31670 101100 396700 55160 83290 232300 191700 24090 128000 58900 49290 603500 11340 17860 63400 6766 20700 23230 13400 5148 7218 10710 17980 9713 20830 7561 9110 13400 26430 5661 53400 20170 7411 2776 27660 52220 11390 8124
2021-06-24 510600 26220 31860 101600 399000 55370 83400 232600 192100 24220 128400 58960 49330 603900 11350 17880 63440 6775 20740 23250 13410 5150 7226 10720 17990 9727 20860 7567 9118 13410 26440 5666 53420 20170 7441 2781 27690 52260 11400 8139
2021-06-25 513100 26230 31970 102000 401100 55580 83500 232900 192400 24350 128800 59090 49370 604400 11360 17890 63460 6785 20770 23260 13410 5153 7232 10730 18000 9732 20870 7572 9122 13430 26450 5671 53430 20170 7445 2785 27700 52300 11410 8143
2021-06-26 515000 26260 32090 102300 403200 55790 83600 232900 192600 24480 129200 59200 49410 604600 11360 17910 63490 6795 20800 23270 13440 5155 7238 10730 18000 9737 20890 7578 9127 13430 26450 5671 53450 20170 7445 2787 27700 52310 11420 8143

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-20 to 2021-06-26

DateUKEUBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITPLROSK
2021-06-19 127970 734445 25132 17989 6449 30278 90390 80652 109830 12528 8169 29950 4979 127253 74823 32308 12478
2021-06-20 128000 734700 25140 17990 6453 30280 90400 80670 109900 12540 8172 29950 4984 127300 74840 32370 12480
2021-06-21 128000 735200 25140 18010 6457 30290 90500 80710 109900 12560 8183 29970 4987 127300 74870 32440 12490
2021-06-22 128000 735800 25150 18020 6462 30290 90620 80770 110000 12570 8190 29970 4990 127400 74910 32520 12500
2021-06-23 128000 736200 25160 18040 6465 30300 90720 80810 110000 12580 8195 29980 4992 127400 74950 32570 12510
2021-06-24 128000 736800 25160 18050 6470 30300 90810 80860 110100 12600 8201 29990 5002 127500 75000 32650 12520
2021-06-25 128000 737300 25160 18060 6473 30310 90920 80910 110200 12610 8207 30000 5003 127500 75050 32740 12520
2021-06-26 128000 737700 25170 18070 6476 30320 90940 80940 110200 12620 8214 30000 5004 127600 75090 32820 12530

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-20 to 2021-06-26

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-TXUS-VAUS-WI
2021-06-19 500800 26042 31392 99335 386708 54291 82854 230959 189933 23538 126761 58590 49122 601741 11306 17838 63308 6732 20624 23133 13375 5129 7180 10688 17951 9684 20689 7536 9056 13340 26372 5649 53338 20163 7354 2753 27559 52098 11343 8047
2021-06-20 502200 26050 31510 99900 388900 54500 82950 231000 190200 23670 127100 58680 49170 601900 11310 17850 63330 6736 20630 23140 13380 5130 7183 10690 17960 9692 20690 7542 9058 13340 26380 5650 53350 20170 7350 2756 27570 52110 11350 8045
2021-06-21 503200 26080 31600 100300 391800 54700 83010 231100 190500 23800 127500 58770 49230 602000 11320 17850 63340 6741 20640 23160 13380 5139 7193 10700 17960 9700 20710 7545 9064 13370 26380 5654 53360 20180 7358 2758 27580 52120 11360 8051
2021-06-22 505400 26100 31660 100700 394300 54880 83070 231500 190800 23930 127800 58900 49280 602300 11320 17860 63350 6749 20660 23170 13380 5141 7204 10700 17970 9708 20740 7546 9078 13380 26390 5657 53370 20180 7364 2763 27600 52140 11370 8058
2021-06-23 507800 26150 31720 101200 397000 55070 83130 231700 191100 24050 128200 59010 49330 602500 11330 17870 63370 6758 20690 23190 13390 5144 7212 10710 17970 9716 20750 7551 9086 13390 26400 5661 53380 20190 7395 2769 27620 52170 11370 8067
2021-06-24 510000 26170 31840 101600 399400 55280 83190 232200 191400 24180 128500 59100 49390 602800 11330 17880 63410 6767 20720 23200 13400 5145 7217 10720 17980 9723 20780 7556 9093 13410 26400 5666 53390 20190 7412 2774 27640 52190 11380 8080
2021-06-25 512000 26190 31930 102000 402000 55490 83240 232600 191700 24310 128900 59200 49440 603100 11340 17890 63440 6776 20750 23220 13400 5149 7232 10720 17980 9740 20800 7563 9099 13430 26410 5670 53400 20200 7425 2777 27650 52220 11390 8088
2021-06-26 513800 26210 32010 102400 404400 55670 83300 233200 191900 24430 129200 59300 49500 603300 11350 17900 63460 6787 20780 23240 13430 5151 7244 10730 17990 9753 20830 7572 9105 13430 26410 5670 53410 20200 7435 2781 27670 52240 11400 8091

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths