COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-06-24


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-06-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 82 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 198 140 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 156 210 189 232 78 178 107 162 160 232 185 219 52 57 83 156 205 167 72 147 16 155 202 78 64 220
Last total 128048 736027 10697 25152 18022 6462 30291 90685 2531 80766 969 109999 12604 8192 29972 4989 127362 17735 74917 17079 32771 14619 4417 12502 792 10880
Last daily increment 21 362 11 3 9 4 2 65 0 18 0 44 15 2 1 0 10 1 24 2 145 3 0 0 0 4
Last week 92 1847 20 35 35 17 16 311 3 114 2 191 96 24 22 10 137 12 135 18 559 45 6 24 2 12
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 45 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-06-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 --2021-06-10 --2021-04-252021-06-012021-04-142021-04-0912-172021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-242021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-06-112021-01-1912-102021-03-0312-2712-292021-05-272021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 5884 419 3207 814 223 552 564 354 3333 14 134 43 154 626 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 248 147 106 476 8 126 114 70 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 89 42 192 194 1341 20 211 93 23 17 337 9 326 2 82 14 129 9
Days since peak 294 79 159 87 14 60 23 71 76 189 161 58 160 70 142 192 160 120 197 164 141 184 154 150 149 82 196 196 190 92 23 220 308 28 107 199 107 37 161 76 142 197 203 391 364 31 162 159 190 78 79 162 143 203 13 156 196 113 179 177 28 104 168
Last total 910 509141 26162 31797 102636 393310 55949 83473 232068 191073 24036 129278 59406 49417 603178 374 11328 5890 17875 63501 6765 8273 1141 1693 36973 20672 510 6124 2143 23191 13396 5139 7200 10717 17972 9706 856 20773 7561 9076 7391 1661 13408 1527 2230 1368 26416 4334 5664 53367 20210 7384 2760 27627 9805 2029 12341 52217 1593 11381 256 5895 8092 2876 740
Last daily increment 0 2032 18 51 689 1329 355 144 221 167 108 559 148 59 341 0 0 3 7 77 11 3 0 0 0 16 0 4 3 18 4 0 4 8 4 7 0 31 6 1 1 4 15 1 0 0 6 2 10 2 0 0 1 15 1 0 4 34 0 13 0 9 15 4 0
Last week 0 10642 146 538 3890 8173 1906 727 1109 1140 651 2978 965 346 1607 1 22 16 53 227 42 4 0 14 0 73 3 15 21 58 50 10 20 29 24 27 2 84 30 22 20 10 68 4 0 2 48 18 15 37 47 30 10 68 13 2 27 134 7 39 0 78 45 13 6
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-292021-02-0507-27 --04-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 396 1661 308 473 1833 917 159 323 253 2244 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 31 18 3562 42 40 23 135 45 2 113 459 105 12 59 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 92 71 171 95 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 7 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 51 2 5 6 12 -7 2 12 14 1 5 70 9 0 5 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-25 to 2021-07-01

DateUKEUATBEBGDEESFRGRHRHUITPLROSESK
2021-06-24 128048 736027 10697 25152 18022 90685 80766 109999 12604 8192 29972 127362 74917 32771 14619 12502
2021-06-25 128000 737000 10700 25160 18050 90880 80860 110100 12620 8197 29980 127400 75030 32930 14630 12510
2021-06-26 128100 737600 10700 25180 18070 90940 80890 110200 12640 8212 29980 127400 75110 33070 14630 12520
2021-06-27 128100 737800 10710 25190 18070 90960 80910 110200 12650 8223 29980 127400 75130 33140 14640 12530
2021-06-28 128100 738200 10710 25200 18090 91070 80960 110200 12670 8230 29980 127400 75140 33230 14650 12530
2021-06-29 128100 738700 10710 25210 18100 91160 81010 110300 12680 8238 29980 127500 75190 33340 14670 12540
2021-06-30 128100 739100 10710 25210 18110 91210 81050 110300 12700 8243 29990 127500 75220 33490 14680 12550
2021-07-01 128100 739400 10720 25220 18120 91280 81100 110400 12710 8249 29990 127500 75250 33600 14690 12550

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-25 to 2021-07-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-06-24 509141 26162 31797 102636 393310 55949 83473 232068 191073 24036 129278 59406 49417 603178 11328 17875 63501 6765 20672 2143 23191 13396 7200 10717 17972 9706 20773 7561 9076 7391 13408 26416 53367 20210 7384 27627 12341 52217 11381 5895 8092
2021-06-25 511400 26190 31990 103200 394500 56250 83600 232600 191400 24150 129800 59410 49450 603800 11350 17890 63500 6775 20720 2143 23220 13400 7213 10730 17980 9737 20810 7569 9091 7395 13430 26420 53380 20220 7391 27660 12350 52270 11390 5895 8106
2021-06-26 513400 26220 32110 103700 395600 56530 83770 232700 191900 24320 130300 59470 49480 604100 11350 17910 63520 6785 20760 2143 23240 13430 7221 10730 17980 9746 20850 7577 9099 7395 13430 26430 53400 20220 7391 27670 12350 52290 11400 5895 8111
2021-06-27 514200 26240 32230 104200 396700 56810 83920 233000 192300 24470 130700 59520 49510 604200 11360 17910 63540 6785 20760 2143 23250 13430 7225 10730 17990 9757 20860 7585 9101 7395 13430 26440 53420 20230 7392 27680 12350 52300 11410 5895 8113
2021-06-28 514900 26280 32340 104700 397800 57090 84050 233100 192600 24590 131200 59590 49530 604500 11360 17910 63560 6791 20770 2151 23270 13430 7236 10730 18000 9766 20890 7589 9105 7400 13460 26440 53440 20240 7401 27690 12350 52310 11420 5895 8128
2021-06-29 517100 26300 32380 105200 398800 57380 84180 233400 192900 24720 131600 59790 49560 604900 11370 17920 63570 6798 20790 2153 23280 13440 7246 10740 18000 9787 20910 7590 9120 7409 13470 26460 53450 20240 7401 27720 12350 52340 11430 5895 8136
2021-06-30 519500 26330 32430 105600 399900 57670 84310 233800 193200 24830 132100 59940 49580 605200 11380 17930 63600 6810 20810 2155 23290 13440 7250 10750 18010 9798 20910 7594 9126 7411 13480 26470 53460 20250 7430 27730 12360 52370 11440 5898 8146
2021-07-01 521500 26350 32520 106000 400900 57960 84430 234000 193400 24950 132600 60050 49610 605500 11380 17940 63660 6820 20840 2157 23300 13450 7258 10760 18010 9798 20940 7599 9129 7411 13500 26480 53470 20250 7430 27740 12360 52410 11450 5907 8159

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-25 to 2021-07-01

DateUKEUATBEBGDEESFRGRHRHUITPLROSESK
2021-06-24 128048 736027 10697 25152 18022 90685 80766 109999 12604 8192 29972 127362 74917 32771 14619 12502
2021-06-25 128100 736500 10700 25160 18030 90770 80800 110100 12620 8199 29970 127400 74950 32890 14620 12510
2021-06-26 128100 736900 10710 25170 18040 90800 80820 110100 12630 8206 29980 127400 74990 32970 14630 12510
2021-06-27 128100 737100 10710 25170 18040 90830 80830 110100 12640 8213 29980 127400 75010 33020 14630 12520
2021-06-28 128100 737400 10710 25180 18050 90900 80860 110200 12660 8221 29980 127400 75020 33070 14630 12530
2021-06-29 128100 737900 10710 25180 18060 90990 80900 110200 12670 8227 29990 127500 75050 33150 14640 12530
2021-06-30 128100 738300 10710 25180 18070 91070 80940 110200 12680 8232 29990 127500 75100 33220 14650 12540
2021-07-01 128100 738700 10720 25190 18080 91140 80970 110300 12690 8237 29990 127500 75140 33280 14650 12550

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-25 to 2021-07-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-06-24 509141 26162 31797 102636 393310 55949 83473 232068 191073 24036 129278 59406 49417 603178 11328 17875 63501 6765 20672 2143 23191 13396 7200 10717 17972 9706 20773 7561 9076 7391 13408 26416 53367 20210 7384 27627 12341 52217 11381 5895 8092
2021-06-25 511200 26180 31880 103200 394300 56270 83580 232300 191300 24150 129800 59550 49480 603600 11340 17880 63540 6774 20700 2144 23200 13400 7205 10730 17980 9718 20790 7566 9079 7394 13430 26420 53370 20220 7387 27640 12350 52250 11390 5909 8098
2021-06-26 513000 26200 31980 103700 395700 56510 83650 232500 191600 24280 130200 59660 49530 603700 11340 17900 63560 6783 20720 2144 23210 13430 7221 10730 17980 9726 20810 7573 9083 7394 13430 26430 53380 20220 7395 27650 12350 52260 11400 5911 8099
2021-06-27 514100 26210 32070 104200 397000 56790 83730 232800 191900 24400 130600 59770 49580 603800 11340 17900 63580 6785 20730 2144 23220 13430 7232 10730 17990 9735 20810 7581 9085 7395 13430 26430 53390 20230 7399 27660 12350 52270 11400 5914 8099
2021-06-28 515100 26250 32170 104600 398300 57060 83790 232900 192100 24520 131000 59870 49630 603900 11350 17910 63600 6790 20740 2149 23240 13430 7244 10740 17990 9743 20830 7584 9089 7399 13450 26430 53400 20240 7404 27660 12360 52280 11410 5916 8105
2021-06-29 516900 26260 32220 105100 399600 57310 83860 233000 192400 24630 131400 60040 49680 604100 11350 17910 63610 6797 20760 2150 23250 13430 7254 10740 17990 9753 20850 7585 9100 7408 13460 26440 53410 20240 7407 27680 12360 52300 11420 5919 8110
2021-06-30 519200 26290 32270 105500 400900 57550 83920 233400 192600 24740 131800 60160 49730 604300 11360 17920 63630 6807 20790 2151 23260 13440 7272 10750 18000 9757 20860 7590 9106 7410 13480 26450 53420 20250 7423 27700 12360 52320 11420 5926 8117
2021-07-01 521100 26310 32390 106000 402200 57820 83990 233500 192800 24850 132200 60270 49780 604500 11360 17930 63670 6815 20820 2152 23270 13440 7287 10760 18000 9760 20890 7596 9112 7411 13490 26450 53420 20260 7426 27710 12370 52340 11430 5932 8123

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths