COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-06-29


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-06-29

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 82 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 165 140 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 161 215 194 237 83 183 112 167 165 237 190 224 57 62 88 161 210 172 77 152 21 160 207 83 69 225
Last total 128126 737756 10700 25170 18049 6468 30298 90883 2534 80829 969 110149 12676 8205 29991 4989 127542 17745 75005 17092 33605 14626 4419 12510 792 10887
Last daily increment 23 555 -1 2 9 0 0 57 1 40 0 44 13 3 2 0 42 4 26 6 294 7 0 1 0 2
Last week 99 2091 14 21 36 10 9 263 3 81 0 194 87 15 20 0 190 11 112 15 979 10 2 8 0 11
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 49 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-06-29

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 --2021-06-10 --2021-04-252021-06-012021-04-142021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-0312-2712-292021-05-302021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 6280 419 3090 814 223 564 354 3333 14 134 43 154 626 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 241 147 106 485 8 126 114 70 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 93 42 192 194 1341 20 211 93 23 18 337 11 326 2 82 16 129 9
Days since peak 299 84 164 92 19 65 28 76 81 166 63 165 75 147 197 165 125 202 169 146 189 159 155 154 87 201 201 195 97 28 225 313 33 112 204 112 42 166 81 147 202 208 396 369 34 167 164 195 83 84 167 148 208 18 161 4 118 184 182 30 109 173
Last total 910 515985 26245 32489 105934 398454 58024 84127 232803 191899 24557 132314 60264 49687 604474 374 11338 5905 17930 63621 6788 8275 1141 1694 36973 20715 513 6134 2149 23223 13420 5150 7217 10732 17979 9717 858 20823 7587 9120 7412 1665 13424 1528 2230 1370 26444 4338 5678 53411 20306 7384 2770 27670 9817 2033 12362 52308 1617 11412 256 5917 8126 2879 747
Last daily increment 0 1893 30 35 608 817 463 142 195 0 101 643 226 53 359 0 0 8 17 23 12 0 0 0 0 17 0 1 4 4 8 0 5 4 1 0 0 31 0 39 11 3 4 0 0 0 6 2 8 6 28 0 7 13 3 3 7 29 2 10 0 9 17 1 7
Last week 0 8876 101 743 3987 6473 2430 798 956 993 629 3595 1006 329 1569 0 10 18 62 197 34 5 0 1 0 59 3 14 9 50 28 11 21 23 11 18 2 81 32 45 22 8 31 2 0 2 34 6 24 46 28 0 11 58 13 4 25 125 24 44 0 31 49 7 7
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-292021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 396 1662 322 473 1833 917 159 323 253 2244 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 31 18 3562 42 40 23 135 45 2 113 459 9 105 12 59 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 92 71 171 95 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 7 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 51 -84 5 6 12 -7 2 12 14 1 5 70 1 9 0 5 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-30 to 2021-07-06

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRGRHUITPLRO
2021-06-29 128126 737756 25170 18049 90883 80829 110149 12676 29991 127542 75005 33605
2021-06-30 128100 738500 25180 18070 91020 80890 110200 12690 30010 127600 75090 33610
2021-07-01 128100 739100 25190 18090 91130 80940 110300 12710 30030 127600 75160 33680
2021-07-02 128100 739700 25200 18090 91220 80990 110300 12730 30040 127700 75200 33790
2021-07-03 128200 740200 25200 18100 91240 81000 110400 12750 30040 127700 75230 33980
2021-07-04 128200 740500 25210 18100 91260 81020 110400 12760 30050 127700 75240 34020
2021-07-05 128200 740900 25210 18110 91310 81040 110400 12780 30070 127700 75240 34070
2021-07-06 128200 741300 25220 18120 91370 81090 110500 12790 30070 127800 75260 34280

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-30 to 2021-07-06

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-06-29 515985 26245 32489 105934 398454 58024 84127 232803 191899 24557 132314 60264 49687 604474 17930 63621 6788 20715 23223 13420 7217 10732 20823 7587 9120 7412 13424 26444 5678 53411 20306 27670 12362 52308 1617 11412 5917 8126
2021-06-30 519200 26290 32540 106400 399600 58400 84250 233200 192100 24660 132900 60320 49750 604900 17940 63630 6801 20760 23250 13430 7253 10740 20840 7593 9120 7413 13450 26460 5678 53420 20320 27690 12370 52350 1619 11420 5918 8130
2021-07-01 521500 26310 32630 107100 401200 58830 84380 233500 192600 24830 133500 60380 49830 605300 17950 63670 6812 20790 23270 13440 7272 10750 20890 7600 9122 7414 13470 26470 5686 53440 20330 27720 12370 52390 1621 11430 5918 8139
2021-07-02 523600 26330 32800 107600 402500 59270 84510 233900 192900 24960 134100 60530 49890 605800 17970 63700 6820 20810 23290 13440 7292 10760 20900 7610 9126 7418 13490 26480 5689 53460 20350 27730 12370 52420 1623 11440 5918 8144
2021-07-03 525300 26340 32930 108200 403700 59630 84630 234100 193200 25080 134700 60640 49960 605900 17980 63720 6823 20840 23290 13460 7309 10760 20910 7616 9129 7418 13490 26480 5689 53470 20360 27740 12370 52440 1625 11450 5918 8144
2021-07-04 526100 26350 33040 108800 404800 59990 84750 234300 193400 25190 135300 60720 50020 606000 17980 63740 6828 20850 23300 13460 7330 10760 20920 7621 9130 7418 13490 26490 5689 53480 20380 27740 12370 52450 1628 11460 5918 8144
2021-07-05 526600 26370 33170 109400 405800 60340 84860 234500 193600 25300 135800 60840 50080 606200 17980 63750 6828 20850 23310 13460 7350 10770 20930 7625 9132 7423 13500 26490 5691 53490 20390 27750 12380 52450 1629 11470 5918 8153
2021-07-06 528500 26400 33210 110000 406800 60760 84980 234600 193800 25400 136400 61050 50140 606500 18000 63760 6839 20860 23320 13460 7350 10770 20950 7625 9164 7434 13510 26500 5698 53500 20410 27770 12380 52480 1631 11480 5918 8165

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-30 to 2021-07-06

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRGRHUITPLRO
2021-06-29 128126 737756 25170 18049 90883 80829 110149 12676 29991 127542 75005 33605
2021-06-30 128100 738200 25180 18060 90940 80860 110200 12690 30000 127600 75040 33750
2021-07-01 128200 738600 25180 18070 91000 80890 110200 12700 30000 127600 75090 33820
2021-07-02 128200 739000 25180 18070 91070 80920 110300 12720 30000 127600 75120 33910
2021-07-03 128200 739300 25190 18070 91090 80940 110300 12730 30000 127600 75140 34030
2021-07-04 128200 739500 25190 18080 91110 80960 110300 12740 30010 127700 75160 34070
2021-07-05 128200 739700 25190 18090 91190 80990 110300 12760 30010 127700 75180 34120
2021-07-06 128200 740100 25200 18090 91260 81030 110400 12770 30020 127700 75210 34200

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-30 to 2021-07-06

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-06-29 515985 26245 32489 105934 398454 58024 84127 232803 191899 24557 132314 60264 49687 604474 17930 63621 6788 20715 23223 13420 7217 10732 20823 7587 9120 7412 13424 26444 5678 53411 20306 27670 12362 52308 1617 11412 5917 8126
2021-06-30 518200 26280 32560 106500 398900 58380 84230 233100 192100 24660 132900 60420 49740 604700 17940 63660 6798 20740 23230 13430 7226 10740 20840 7591 9131 7414 13430 26450 5681 53420 20320 27680 12370 52340 1619 11420 5938 8135
2021-07-01 520100 26300 32650 107000 400100 58670 84290 233300 192300 24780 133400 60540 49790 604900 17950 63710 6807 20770 23250 13430 7236 10750 20860 7597 9135 7415 13450 26460 5688 53430 20320 27690 12370 52360 1621 11430 5944 8142
2021-07-02 522000 26310 32770 107600 401100 58980 84350 233600 192500 24880 133900 60700 49830 605300 17960 63740 6813 20790 23260 13440 7246 10750 20880 7606 9139 7418 13450 26460 5691 53440 20320 27700 12370 52390 1623 11430 5947 8145
2021-07-03 523600 26320 32870 108100 401900 59240 84410 233800 192700 24990 134400 60840 49880 605400 17970 63770 6817 20810 23260 13450 7254 10760 20890 7612 9142 7418 13460 26460 5691 53440 20320 27710 12380 52400 1625 11440 5949 8145
2021-07-04 524700 26320 32960 108500 403500 59470 84470 233800 192900 25090 135000 60960 49930 605400 17980 63780 6821 20820 23260 13450 7263 10760 20900 7617 9146 7419 13460 26470 5692 53450 20320 27720 12380 52410 1627 11450 5950 8145
2021-07-05 525800 26360 33060 109000 404500 59730 84520 233900 193100 25190 135500 61080 49980 605600 17980 63790 6826 20830 23280 13460 7269 10760 20920 7621 9149 7423 13480 26470 5693 53460 20330 27720 12380 52410 1629 11450 5952 8148
2021-07-06 527900 26380 33110 109400 405600 59970 84580 234100 193300 25290 136000 61250 50030 605800 17990 63800 6832 20850 23290 13460 7271 10770 20930 7621 9161 7432 13490 26470 5698 53460 20330 27740 12390 52440 1631 11460 5953 8150

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths