COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-07-03


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-07-03

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-04-202021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 82 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 161 140 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 165 219 198 241 87 187 116 171 169 241 194 228 61 66 92 165 214 176 81 156 74 164 211 87 73 229
Last total 128207 738768 10709 25185 18084 6476 30310 91040 2537 80911 973 110230 12710 8215 29992 5000 127637 17756 75083 17112 33925 14631 4419 12513 794 10894
Last daily increment 18 117 0 0 1 2 2 8 1 0 0 17 9 3 0 0 22 1 18 4 27 0 0 2 0 0
Last week 107 1814 9 25 57 9 12 272 5 132 4 169 55 15 12 11 165 15 104 28 672 12 0 8 2 12
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 68 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-07-03

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 --2021-06-10 --2021-04-252021-06-012021-04-142021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-0312-2712-292021-06-042021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 6336 419 2867 814 223 564 354 3333 14 134 43 154 626 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 235 147 106 482 8 126 114 70 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 93 42 192 194 1341 20 211 93 23 19 337 12 326 2 82 16 129 9
Days since peak 303 88 168 96 23 69 32 80 85 170 67 169 79 151 201 169 129 206 173 150 193 163 159 158 91 205 205 199 101 32 229 317 37 116 208 116 46 170 85 151 206 212 400 373 38 171 168 199 87 88 171 152 212 22 165 8 122 188 186 29 113 177
Last total 910 523587 26312 32973 108314 402005 60027 84627 233580 192687 25063 134987 61507 49874 605493 377 11358 5913 17975 63651 6814 8278 1141 1695 36973 20744 515 6146 2158 23245 13439 5158 7229 10757 17985 9731 860 20837 7610 9159 7419 1666 13434 1528 2230 1371 26472 4344 5697 53428 20341 7388 2781 27704 9830 2038 12388 52473 1624 11423 258 5936 8135 2899 747
Last daily increment 0 1635 6 164 591 955 493 111 152 0 90 685 175 45 80 0 0 0 14 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 0 10113 125 675 3636 5275 2889 782 1016 1103 691 3917 1607 298 1500 3 22 20 62 62 37 4 0 1 0 46 2 13 13 46 40 11 25 34 9 15 2 50 28 78 24 4 22 0 0 1 35 9 30 30 35 4 18 53 11 8 40 200 10 27 2 37 36 23 7
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-272021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-292021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 389 1662 322 473 1833 917 159 323 253 2244 13 100 124 78 140 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 31 18 3562 42 40 23 135 45 2 113 459 9 105 12 59 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 92 71 171 95 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 43 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 8 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 51 -84 5 6 12 -7 2 12 14 1 5 70 1 9 0 5 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRGRITPLPTRO
2021-07-03 128207 738768 25185 18084 91040 80911 110230 12710 127637 75083 17112 33925
2021-07-04 128200 739200 25190 18090 91120 80920 110300 12720 127700 75100 17120 34020
2021-07-05 128200 739600 25200 18100 91230 80940 110300 12750 127700 75120 17120 34120
2021-07-06 128200 740200 25210 18110 91310 81000 110400 12770 127800 75150 17120 34220
2021-07-07 128200 740600 25210 18130 91380 81050 110400 12790 127800 75170 17120 34330
2021-07-08 128200 740900 25220 18130 91450 81080 110500 12800 127800 75200 17120 34430
2021-07-09 128300 741200 25220 18140 91490 81110 110500 12820 127800 75220 17120 34530
2021-07-10 128300 741300 25230 18150 91500 81120 110500 12830 127800 75240 17130 34630

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-07-03 523587 26312 32973 108314 402005 60027 84627 233580 192687 25063 134987 61507 49874 605493 11358 5913 17975 63651 6814 20744 23245 13439 7229 10757 20837 7610 9159 7419 13434 26472 5697 53428 20341 27704 12388 52473 11423 5936 8135 2899
2021-07-04 524100 26330 33080 108900 403300 60510 84750 233800 193000 25170 135700 61770 49920 605800 11360 5913 17980 63680 6819 20780 23260 13440 7233 10760 20860 7617 9159 7419 13450 26480 5697 53440 20340 27720 12390 52480 11430 5944 8138 2899
2021-07-05 524400 26360 33210 109400 405700 61050 84880 233800 193400 25290 136400 61970 49980 606100 11370 5917 17990 63680 6822 20800 23280 13460 7245 10770 20880 7622 9159 7424 13480 26490 5698 53450 20340 27730 12390 52480 11440 5950 8149 2900
2021-07-06 525900 26390 33240 110000 407500 61560 85000 234100 193700 25400 137100 62280 50030 606400 11370 5925 18000 63680 6834 20820 23290 13460 7253 10770 20920 7623 9184 7434 13490 26500 5705 53470 20340 27760 12390 52510 11460 5957 8163 2903
2021-07-07 527600 26420 33290 110500 409000 62030 85120 234400 193900 25510 137700 62550 50080 606700 11390 5929 18010 63690 6842 20850 23300 13470 7258 10780 20920 7630 9188 7435 13500 26510 5707 53480 20340 27770 12390 52540 11460 5969 8169 2910
2021-07-08 529200 26430 33360 111100 410500 62520 85240 234600 194100 25610 138400 62730 50130 607000 11390 5931 18020 63730 6849 20860 23310 13470 7264 10790 20940 7635 9191 7436 13500 26520 5716 53490 20340 27780 12390 52590 11470 5978 8176 2915
2021-07-09 530500 26450 33550 111600 411900 63040 85360 234900 194300 25720 139000 62940 50180 607400 11400 5936 18030 63730 6854 20870 23320 13480 7273 10800 20940 7642 9204 7440 13500 26520 5720 53500 20340 27780 12390 52630 11480 5981 8177 2916
2021-07-10 532100 26460 33710 112200 413200 63490 85480 235100 194500 25820 139600 63090 50220 607500 11400 5938 18050 63730 6864 20890 23320 13480 7275 10800 20950 7647 9212 7440 13500 26530 5720 53500 20340 27790 12390 52640 11490 5982 8177 2918

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRGRITPLPTRO
2021-07-03 128207 738768 25185 18084 91040 80911 110230 12710 127637 75083 17112 33925
2021-07-04 128200 738900 25190 18090 91040 80920 110200 12720 127600 75090 17120 33970
2021-07-05 128200 739200 25190 18100 91110 80930 110300 12740 127700 75110 17120 34050
2021-07-06 128200 739700 25200 18100 91170 80960 110300 12750 127700 75130 17120 34150
2021-07-07 128300 740000 25200 18110 91220 80990 110400 12770 127700 75150 17120 34250
2021-07-08 128300 740300 25200 18110 91290 81020 110400 12780 127700 75180 17130 34330
2021-07-09 128300 740600 25210 18120 91350 81040 110400 12790 127800 75200 17130 34410
2021-07-10 128300 740900 25210 18120 91370 81050 110500 12810 127800 75230 17130 34510

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-07-03 523587 26312 32973 108314 402005 60027 84627 233580 192687 25063 134987 61507 49874 605493 11358 5913 17975 63651 6814 20744 23245 13439 7229 10757 20837 7610 9159 7419 13434 26472 5697 53428 20341 27704 12388 52473 11423 5936 8135 2899
2021-07-04 524600 26320 33100 108900 402800 60460 84710 233700 192800 25170 135600 61730 49920 605600 11360 5914 17980 63660 6819 20750 23250 13440 7228 10760 20840 7615 9165 7420 13430 26480 5698 53430 20350 27710 12390 52490 11430 5937 8135 2900
2021-07-05 525700 26350 33200 109500 403700 60840 84780 233700 193000 25270 136200 61910 49970 605700 11370 5915 17990 63660 6822 20750 23260 13450 7232 10770 20850 7619 9166 7424 13450 26480 5699 53440 20350 27720 12400 52490 11430 5943 8141 2901
2021-07-06 527600 26370 33260 110100 404500 61200 84840 233900 193200 25360 136800 62160 50010 605900 11370 5919 18000 63680 6830 20770 23270 13450 7234 10770 20870 7619 9182 7434 13460 26480 5706 53450 20360 27740 12400 52520 11440 5950 8148 2903
2021-07-07 529600 26400 33320 110700 405300 61530 84900 234200 193400 25460 137400 62400 50060 606000 11380 5921 18000 63700 6836 20780 23270 13460 7236 10780 20870 7625 9188 7435 13470 26490 5708 53460 20360 27740 12400 52540 11450 5960 8151 2908
2021-07-08 531500 26410 33380 111200 405800 61880 84950 234400 193600 25560 138000 62580 50110 606200 11380 5922 18010 63750 6843 20790 23290 13460 7241 10780 20890 7629 9191 7436 13480 26490 5716 53460 20370 27750 12410 52570 11450 5967 8155 2910
2021-07-09 533600 26420 33500 111800 407100 62230 85010 234600 193700 25660 138600 62790 50150 606500 11380 5925 18020 63760 6849 20810 23290 13460 7249 10790 20890 7636 9197 7439 13490 26500 5719 53470 20370 27760 12410 52600 11460 5971 8157 2911
2021-07-10 535400 26430 33600 112400 407800 62520 85070 234800 193900 25770 139100 63010 50200 606600 11390 5926 18030 63780 6854 20820 23300 13470 7254 10790 20900 7642 9202 7440 13500 26500 5720 53480 20380 27770 12420 52610 11460 5976 8158 2911

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths