COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-07-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-07-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-172021-05-032021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 596 82 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 173 140 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 175 229 208 251 97 197 126 181 179 251 204 238 71 76 102 175 224 186 91 166 35 174 221 97 83 239
Last total 128481 740324 10724 25207 18154 6490 30333 91295 2539 81033 976 110456 12782 8231 30010 5006 127808 17769 75173 17173 34233 14645 4425 12522 796 10900
Last daily increment 50 181 1 2 10 1 2 27 0 13 0 50 4 2 3 0 20 3 13 9 14 2 0 1 0 0
Last week 180 840 5 11 25 6 22 147 1 64 0 137 43 7 11 0 90 9 59 47 135 6 3 6 0 4
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-07-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-29 --2021-06-10 --2021-04-252021-06-012021-04-142021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-0312-2712-292021-06-042021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 6223 419 2955 814 223 564 354 3330 14 134 43 154 655 151 38 5 9 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 8 237 147 106 482 8 126 114 70 46 14 96 27 25 26 1568 93 42 192 194 1341 20 211 93 23 18 337 9 326 2 82 15 129 9
Days since peak 313 98 178 106 33 79 42 90 95 180 77 179 89 161 211 179 139 216 183 160 203 173 169 168 101 215 215 209 111 42 239 327 47 126 218 126 56 180 95 161 216 222 410 383 48 181 178 209 97 98 181 162 222 32 175 18 132 198 196 39 123 187
Last total 912 535838 26414 33980 113335 411406 68219 86207 235277 194488 26092 142102 65142 50324 607771 381 11402 5970 18055 63984 6861 8278 1144 1695 36973 20824 518 6149 2165 23336 13506 5188 7271 10798 18000 9750 862 20919 7627 9250 7451 1676 13503 1532 2230 1380 26516 4359 5731 53482 20408 7406 2800 27759 9856 2039 12431 52690 1640 11459 258 6019 8185 2909 751
Last daily increment 0 1605 9 0 0 2642 864 166 219 0 77 767 633 46 372 0 0 15 20 20 8 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 12 10 0 6 9 0 4 0 32 3 48 10 2 4 0 0 6 7 1 1 4 31 0 3 9 0 0 7 29 3 9 0 22 0 -1 0
Last week 2 7298 58 652 2757 6378 5311 946 1085 745 633 4384 2103 276 1539 4 15 37 51 237 37 1 1 0 0 57 3 0 3 58 40 23 21 33 4 10 1 60 12 63 15 5 43 4 0 7 26 12 26 28 31 0 12 41 13 0 31 159 10 23 0 49 31 8 0
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-05-0306-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-232021-01-2912-1505-0507-2407-292021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 537 1662 322 473 1833 917 159 323 253 2243 13 100 124 78 139 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 41 321 31 18 3562 43 40 23 135 45 2 113 459 9 105 12 59 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 92 71 171 95 16 58 63 529 0 9 10 6 42 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 8 10 -2 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 51 -84 5 6 12 -7 2 12 14 1 5 70 1 9 0 5 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateUKEUBGCZDEESFRGRITPLPTRO
2021-07-13 128481 740324 18154 30333 91295 81033 110456 12782 127808 75173 17173 34233
2021-07-14 128500 740500 18160 30330 91370 81070 110500 12790 127900 75200 17180 34290
2021-07-15 128500 740700 18170 30350 91450 81100 110500 12800 127900 75230 17190 34550
2021-07-16 128500 740800 18170 30350 91500 81120 110500 12810 127900 75250 17190 34710
2021-07-17 128500 740800 18170 30350 91510 81130 110600 12820 127900 75260 17200 34830
2021-07-18 128600 740800 18170 30350 91530 81140 110600 12820 127900 75270 17210 34930
2021-07-19 128600 740800 18180 30350 91550 81170 110600 12830 128000 75270 17210 35000
2021-07-20 128600 741000 18190 30350 91590 81200 110600 12840 128000 75270 17220 35070

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MIUS-MOUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-07-13 535838 26414 33980 113335 411406 68219 86207 235277 194488 26092 142102 65142 50324 607771 5970 18055 63984 6861 20824 23336 13506 5188 7271 10798 20919 9250 13503 26516 5731 53482 20408 27759 12431 52690 11459 6019 8185
2021-07-14 538100 26450 34090 114300 412900 68800 86360 235500 194700 26190 142800 65140 50370 607900 5970 18060 64000 6866 20820 23340 13510 5189 7275 10800 20920 9296 13510 26530 5731 53490 20420 27770 12440 52710 11460 6026 8193
2021-07-15 540100 26470 34230 115000 414200 69390 86500 235700 194800 26310 143600 65160 50430 608200 5974 18070 64050 6870 20830 23350 13520 5189 7279 10810 20930 9316 13520 26540 5735 53500 20440 27780 12440 52750 11470 6034 8200
2021-07-16 541700 26490 34380 115600 415600 69980 86640 235900 195000 26420 144300 65210 50480 608700 5977 18080 64090 6878 20840 23350 13520 5195 7284 10810 20950 9342 13520 26540 5745 53510 20450 27790 12440 52780 11480 6041 8216
2021-07-17 543000 26490 34510 116000 416800 70440 86780 236100 195100 26520 145100 65250 50530 608800 5977 18100 64130 6888 20840 23350 13520 5196 7286 10820 20950 9363 13520 26550 5745 53520 20470 27800 12450 52800 11490 6042 8216
2021-07-18 543700 26500 34620 116300 418000 70950 86920 236200 195200 26620 145800 65300 50570 608800 5977 18100 64130 6893 20840 23350 13520 5196 7288 10820 20950 9380 13520 26550 5745 53530 20490 27800 12450 52800 11490 6044 8216
2021-07-19 544200 26510 34730 117100 419300 71310 87060 236400 195300 26720 146500 65350 50620 609000 5985 18100 64150 6893 20850 23370 13530 5205 7298 10820 20950 9397 13530 26560 5750 53530 20500 27810 12460 52820 11500 6049 8220
2021-07-20 545800 26520 34740 117200 420500 72070 87200 236700 195300 26810 147200 65860 50660 609300 5998 18120 64170 6901 20880 23380 13540 5206 7307 10830 20980 9411 13540 26570 5754 53540 20520 27810 12460 52850 11510 6067 8222

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateUKEUBGCZDEESFRGRITPLPTRO
2021-07-13 128481 740324 18154 30333 91295 81033 110456 12782 127808 75173 17173 34233
2021-07-14 128500 740500 18160 30340 91320 81050 110500 12790 127800 75190 17180 34280
2021-07-15 128500 740800 18160 30340 91380 81070 110500 12790 127800 75200 17190 34380
2021-07-16 128500 741000 18170 30340 91410 81090 110500 12800 127900 75220 17190 34450
2021-07-17 128600 741100 18170 30340 91420 81100 110600 12810 127900 75230 17200 34500
2021-07-18 128600 741300 18170 30340 91440 81110 110600 12810 127900 75230 17200 34540
2021-07-19 128600 741400 18180 30340 91470 81140 110600 12820 127900 75240 17210 34580
2021-07-20 128600 741600 18180 30340 91510 81160 110600 12820 127900 75250 17210 34620

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MIUS-MOUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2021-07-13 535838 26414 33980 113335 411406 68219 86207 235277 194488 26092 142102 65142 50324 607771 5970 18055 63984 6861 20824 23336 13506 5188 7271 10798 20919 9250 13503 26516 5731 53482 20408 27759 12431 52690 11459 6019 8185
2021-07-14 537400 26430 34040 113900 412500 69090 86340 235500 194600 26190 142800 65520 50370 608000 5976 18060 64010 6868 20840 23340 13510 5193 7276 10800 20920 9276 13510 26520 5734 53490 20420 27770 12440 52710 11460 6032 8189
2021-07-15 539100 26440 34150 114400 413200 69820 86410 235700 194900 26290 143500 65860 50410 608200 5980 18060 64070 6872 20840 23350 13520 5193 7280 10810 20930 9283 13520 26530 5738 53490 20420 27780 12440 52740 11470 6037 8192
2021-07-16 540500 26450 34260 114900 413900 70550 86480 236000 195100 26400 144200 66180 50460 608500 5982 18070 64110 6879 20850 23360 13530 5197 7284 10820 20940 9293 13520 26530 5747 53500 20420 27780 12450 52770 11470 6041 8201
2021-07-17 541800 26460 34360 115200 414600 71230 86550 236200 195200 26500 144900 66460 50500 608500 5983 18090 64150 6886 20860 23360 13530 5199 7287 10820 20950 9301 13520 26530 5747 53510 20430 27790 12450 52780 11480 6042 8201
2021-07-18 542600 26460 34440 115500 415300 71950 86620 236200 195400 26600 145600 66720 50540 608600 5983 18090 64150 6891 20860 23360 13530 5201 7290 10820 20950 9308 13520 26540 5748 53510 20430 27790 12450 52790 11480 6043 8201
2021-07-19 543500 26480 34540 116100 416100 72500 86690 236300 195700 26700 146300 67020 50580 608700 5986 18090 64160 6893 20870 23370 13530 5205 7295 10830 20950 9315 13530 26540 5751 53520 20430 27790 12460 52800 11490 6046 8204
2021-07-20 545100 26500 34590 116400 416800 73260 86760 236600 195800 26800 146900 67420 50620 608900 5990 18100 64190 6897 20880 23380 13540 5206 7302 10830 20970 9325 13540 26540 5754 53520 20430 27800 12460 52810 11490 6054 8205

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths