COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-07-25


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-07-25

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-032021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-162021-05-032021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 124 55 215 857 38 927 6 601 82 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 173 139 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 187 241 220 264 109 209 138 193 191 263 216 251 83 88 116 187 236 198 103 178 47 186 233 109 95 251
Last total 129158 741607 10731 25220 18194 6502 30357 91534 2542 81221 980 110625 12874 8245 30020 5026 127949 17800 75242 17292 34268 14651 4428 12534 799 10895
Last daily increment 28 42 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 8 0 0 0 7 4 1 8 1 0 1 0 0 0
Last week 431 694 2 7 17 6 19 130 0 102 1 106 40 5 3 8 75 22 27 77 14 5 3 7 3 -8
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 207 226 15 946 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 35 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 -54

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-07-25

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-06-242021-06-10 --2021-04-252021-06-012021-04-112021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-0312-222021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-03-242021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-182021-01-142021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1612-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-0112-032021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-06-042021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2996 147 118 662 6246 420 3098 813 223 566 354 3330 14 134 43 154 612 151 38 5 9 178 138 48 54 18 148 100 7 230 155 106 480 8 126 114 71 45 14 96 27 25 25 1566 94 41 192 194 1325 20 211 94 23 18 336 9 326 2 80 15 128 10
Days since peak 325 110 190 118 31 45 91 54 105 107 192 89 191 101 173 223 191 151 228 195 172 215 185 181 180 113 227 227 221 123 54 251 339 59 138 230 138 68 192 107 173 228 234 422 395 60 193 190 221 109 110 193 174 234 44 187 30 144 204 208 51 135 199
Last total 918 549924 26506 35026 118868 420967 83279 88800 238424 195243 27224 151352 69775 50934 610891 384 11483 6054 18171 64235 6910 8285 1146 1698 36973 20912 526 6170 2183 23402 13537 5241 7312 10900 18034 9787 897 20973 7650 9368 7502 1695 13570 1538 2230 1384 26575 4397 5817 53549 20464 7454 2836 27827 9878 2043 12477 53018 1655 11500 259 6075 8240 2936 766
Last daily increment 0 476 2 68 330 416 1266 268 108 0 93 769 287 55 56 0 0 6 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 3 7168 40 487 2115 6485 8359 1426 1955 0 438 4666 2695 330 1630 3 40 47 54 102 24 4 0 1 0 50 6 12 7 25 12 52 11 59 22 22 15 37 12 80 34 3 35 1 0 3 30 14 56 31 0 37 10 32 21 2 32 179 7 17 0 35 28 17 6
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --07-2212-2604-122021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-1508-262021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-232021-01-2912-1505-0507-2807-292021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1065 186 785 389 1662 322 473 1724 918 159 323 253 2243 13 99 124 78 139 72 105 11 13 175 354 6 313 19 112 99 209 353 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 31 27 40 317 31 18 3573 43 40 23 135 45 2 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 96 92 71 175 95 16 58 63 528 0 9 10 6 41 2 1 0 0 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 8 10 -1 5 1 6 8 -2 11 1 1 52 -85 5 6 12 1 2 12 14 1 5 70 1 9 0 6 5 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateUKEUDEESFRGRITNLPLPT
2021-07-25 129158 741607 91534 81221 110625 12874 127949 17800 75242 17292
2021-07-26 129300 741800 91550 81230 110600 12880 128000 17800 75260 17300
2021-07-27 129300 742000 91570 81260 110700 12890 128000 17800 75270 17320
2021-07-28 129400 742200 91610 81280 110700 12900 128000 17800 75280 17330
2021-07-29 129500 742400 91630 81310 110700 12900 128000 17810 75290 17340
2021-07-30 129600 742500 91640 81340 110700 12910 128000 17810 75300 17350
2021-07-31 129600 742600 91650 81350 110700 12920 128000 17810 75310 17360
2021-08-01 129700 742600 91650 81360 110700 12920 128100 17810 75310 17370

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-KSUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-WAUS-WI
2021-07-25 549924 26506 35026 118868 420967 83279 88800 238424 27224 151352 69775 50934 610891 11483 6054 18171 64235 6910 20912 23402 5241 10900 18034 9787 20973 9368 7502 13570 26575 5817 53549 7454 27827 9878 12477 53018 6075 8240
2021-07-26 551100 26510 35180 119200 421600 84160 89020 238400 27320 152100 69860 50970 611100 11480 6057 18180 64300 6916 20920 23420 5245 10900 18040 9787 20970 9371 7502 13580 26580 5817 53550 7469 27830 9880 12480 53030 6080 8245
2021-07-27 552800 26520 35240 119500 422200 85090 89190 238500 27450 152800 70340 50980 611300 11490 6057 18190 64330 6923 20930 23430 5248 10910 18040 9790 21000 9411 7507 13590 26590 5817 53560 7472 27840 9883 12490 53050 6098 8254
2021-07-28 554300 26520 35300 119900 422800 86140 89380 238600 27560 153500 70770 51000 611600 11500 6065 18200 64360 6931 20950 23440 5251 10910 18040 9796 21000 9425 7513 13590 26600 5826 53570 7472 27850 9886 12490 53090 6106 8260
2021-07-29 555800 26530 35470 120200 423300 87200 89580 238900 27660 154300 71140 51030 611900 11510 6075 18200 64420 6936 20960 23450 5258 10920 18040 9801 21000 9433 7519 13600 26600 5836 53570 7475 27860 9888 12500 53120 6112 8264
2021-07-30 557000 26540 35560 120500 423900 88350 89770 238900 27750 155000 71490 51060 612300 11510 6080 18210 64440 6945 20980 23450 5260 10940 18050 9805 21020 9447 7523 13610 26610 5848 53580 7475 27860 9890 12500 53160 6115 8272
2021-07-31 557900 26540 35640 120800 424400 89340 89980 239100 27840 155700 71830 51090 612400 11520 6085 18230 64440 6950 20980 23450 5263 10940 18050 9809 21020 9458 7523 13610 26610 5848 53590 7476 27870 9892 12500 53180 6122 8272
2021-08-01 558500 26550 35720 121100 424900 90400 90180 239300 27930 156400 72030 51120 612400 11520 6089 18230 64450 6951 20980 23450 5265 10940 18050 9810 21020 9458 7523 13610 26610 5848 53590 7479 27870 9894 12510 53190 6122 8272

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateUKEUDEESFRGRITNLPLPT
2021-07-25 129158 741607 91534 81221 110625 12874 127949 17800 75242 17292
2021-07-26 129200 741700 91560 81240 110600 12880 128000 17800 75240 17300
2021-07-27 129300 741900 91580 81260 110700 12890 128000 17810 75250 17310
2021-07-28 129300 742000 91620 81280 110700 12900 128000 17810 75260 17320
2021-07-29 129400 742200 91650 81300 110700 12900 128000 17810 75260 17330
2021-07-30 129400 742300 91660 81320 110700 12910 128000 17810 75270 17350
2021-07-31 129500 742400 91670 81330 110800 12910 128000 17810 75280 17360
2021-08-01 129600 742400 91680 81350 110800 12920 128000 17820 75280 17370

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-GAUS-ILUS-KSUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-WAUS-WI
2021-07-25 549924 26506 35026 118868 420967 83279 88800 238424 27224 151352 69775 50934 610891 11483 6054 18171 64235 6910 20912 23402 5241 10900 18034 9787 20973 9368 7502 13570 26575 5817 53549 7454 27827 9878 12477 53018 6075 8240
2021-07-26 550600 26510 35080 119200 421700 84590 88990 238600 27340 152100 70080 50980 611000 11490 6061 18180 64260 6910 20920 23420 5245 10900 18040 9788 20980 9373 7503 13580 26580 5820 53560 7457 27830 9879 12480 53030 6077 8242
2021-07-27 552000 26520 35120 119500 422400 85790 89090 238800 27450 152800 70530 51020 611200 11490 6064 18180 64280 6915 20930 23430 5248 10910 18040 9791 20990 9396 7509 13580 26580 5822 53560 7460 27840 9881 12480 53050 6088 8247
2021-07-28 553200 26530 35160 119800 423200 87040 89180 239200 27540 153600 70940 51060 611400 11500 6070 18190 64300 6921 20950 23430 5252 10920 18040 9796 20990 9407 7515 13590 26590 5833 53570 7474 27850 9884 12490 53070 6092 8250
2021-07-29 554500 26530 35260 120200 423900 88240 89280 239500 27630 154300 71330 51100 611600 11500 6077 18200 64360 6926 20960 23440 5258 10920 18040 9800 21000 9415 7521 13600 26590 5841 53570 7478 27850 9886 12490 53100 6095 8252
2021-07-30 555800 26550 35330 120500 424500 89520 89370 239600 27710 155000 71700 51140 611800 11510 6081 18210 64380 6932 20970 23450 5264 10930 18050 9803 21010 9426 7525 13610 26590 5850 53580 7481 27860 9888 12500 53130 6098 8256
2021-07-31 556800 26550 35390 120800 425200 90710 89470 239900 27800 155800 72030 51190 611900 11510 6083 18220 64400 6938 20970 23450 5269 10940 18050 9806 21010 9435 7526 13610 26590 5854 53580 7481 27860 9890 12500 53140 6102 8257
2021-08-01 557700 26550 35460 121200 425900 91880 89570 240100 27880 156500 72300 51230 611900 11510 6084 18220 64410 6942 20980 23450 5273 10940 18050 9808 21010 9440 7527 13610 26600 5857 53590 7482 27870 9892 12500 53150 6102 8257

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths