COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-08-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-08-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-032021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-162021-05-032021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-16
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 124 55 215 857 38 927 6 601 82 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 173 139 52 105 11 96
Days since peak 213 267 246 290 135 235 164 219 217 289 242 277 109 114 142 213 262 224 129 204 73 212 259 135 121 277
Last total 131487 747841 10761 25320 18459 6582 30384 91980 2563 83136 1012 111856 13295 8295 30046 5074 128683 17939 75315 17622 34388 14668 4438 12547 811 10940
Last daily increment 114 355 1 8 21 5 2 17 1 132 2 48 30 1 0 0 49 6 4 9 9 4 0 0 0 6
Last week 593 2038 7 33 120 29 11 106 4 666 10 408 121 13 8 15 270 33 16 73 46 10 5 3 3 17
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 207 226 15 957 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 60
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 35 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 -54

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-08-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-06-252021-06-102021-07-31 --2021-06-012021-04-112021-04-09 --2021-07-202021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-07-222021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-18 --2021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-01-132021-01-1412-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-012021-08-042021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-07-282021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2996 147 118 654 6246 1706 3098 813 223 396 354 3330 14 134 43 154 612 151 38 5 118 178 138 48 54 18 148 100 8 231 155 106 480 8 126 114 71 14 96 27 25 25 1566 94 41 191 194 1325 20 211 94 4 18 336 9 326 2 80 71 128 10
Days since peak 351 136 216 144 56 71 20 80 131 133 31 115 217 127 199 249 217 177 254 221 198 21 211 207 206 139 253 253 247 29 80 277 365 85 164 256 164 94 133 199 254 260 448 421 86 219 218 247 135 136 219 200 16 70 213 56 170 230 234 23 161 225
Last total 978 573511 26758 36566 124023 433589 123981 100810 252080 197752 31198 171480 78983 54095 627843 414 11942 6614 18561 65021 7067 8336 1155 1851 36973 21472 559 6226 2283 23718 13797 5498 7517 11918 18162 9888 922 21219 7760 9975 7991 1755 14059 1550 2230 1396 26739 4472 6280 53681 20684 7676 3012 28059 10213 2059 12940 55055 1748 11647 270 6353 8368 3008 809
Last daily increment 2 870 15 42 122 0 1348 555 775 36 317 764 289 204 2677 2 28 33 53 101 8 7 0 0 0 47 4 0 2 18 14 98 40 67 6 6 1 40 10 12 54 3 54 1 0 0 8 9 21 11 41 0 18 19 31 0 47 192 7 9 2 26 12 7 0
Last week 20 4723 100 235 667 2364 7615 3602 3913 412 1128 4685 2114 1090 6588 11 177 169 99 388 35 30 5 13 0 212 14 16 38 123 99 107 91 399 32 28 18 109 31 145 230 25 233 5 0 2 47 26 120 105 75 82 77 93 174 5 201 766 33 48 6 117 46 32 16
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-1809-14 --2021-01-1412-2604-132021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-152021-01-142021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-1608-1305-1804-232021-01-2912-1505-0507-2812-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1065 186 785 389 1662 310 473 1724 918 159 566 253 2233 13 99 124 78 139 72 105 11 13 175 354 6 313 19 112 99 209 353 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 45 27 40 317 31 18 3552 43 40 23 135 45 23 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 96 92 131 175 95 16 43 63 528 0 9 10 6 41 2 1 0 -1 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 7 10 -1 5 1 6 8 -2 1 1 52 -85 5 7 12 1 2 12 14 0 5 70 1 9 0 6 -50 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateUKEUBEBGBSDEESFRGRITNLPTRO
2021-08-20 131487 747841 25320 18459 6582 91980 83136 111856 13295 128683 17939 17622 34388
2021-08-21 131600 747800 25320 18460 6588 91990 83140 111900 13310 128700 17950 17630 34390
2021-08-22 131600 747800 25320 18470 6590 92000 83140 111900 13330 128800 17950 17650 34390
2021-08-23 131600 748000 25330 18490 6594 92020 83210 111900 13340 128800 17950 17660 34390
2021-08-24 131800 748300 25330 18500 6598 92050 83320 111900 13360 128900 17960 17680 34390
2021-08-25 131800 748600 25330 18510 6602 92070 83420 111900 13380 128900 17960 17690 34400
2021-08-26 131900 749000 25330 18530 6606 92080 83540 111900 13390 128900 17970 17700 34400
2021-08-27 132000 749200 25340 18550 6611 92100 83620 111900 13410 129000 17980 17710 34400

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-08-20 978 573511 26758 36566 124023 433589 123981 100810 252080 197752 31198 171480 78983 54095 627843 11942 6614 18561 65021 7067 8336 21472 2283 23718 13797 5498 7517 11918 18162 9888 21219 7760 9975 7991 1755 14059 26739 4472 6280 53681 20684 7676 3012 28059 10213 12940 55055 1748 11647 6353 8368 3008
2021-08-21 981 574700 26760 36680 124300 434300 125400 101300 252300 197800 31370 172200 79350 54260 627800 11940 6616 18580 65060 7071 8337 21480 2287 23720 13800 5583 7550 11920 18170 9891 21220 7760 10000 8085 1758 14060 26740 4472 6288 53700 20710 7676 3012 28070 10240 12990 55180 1748 11650 6372 8368 3017
2021-08-22 981 575100 26770 36770 124800 434900 127500 101800 252300 197900 31380 173000 79600 54400 627800 11940 6624 18580 65110 7071 8339 21490 2288 23720 13800 5619 7563 11920 18170 9891 21220 7760 10000 8126 1758 14070 26740 4472 6288 53700 20730 7676 3015 28080 10280 13020 55250 1748 11650 6386 8368 3023
2021-08-23 981 575500 26780 36840 125100 435300 129200 102400 252300 198000 31450 173700 79860 54550 627800 11940 6647 18580 65170 7084 8341 21530 2296 23730 13800 5666 7599 11920 18170 9892 21220 7763 10000 8188 1758 14120 26740 4474 6306 53700 20750 7676 3028 28090 10310 13060 55340 1754 11660 6407 8370 3030
2021-08-24 982 576700 26790 36870 125400 435800 130800 103000 253000 198000 31560 174500 80300 54700 628400 11960 6674 18580 65220 7089 8341 21580 2302 23740 13820 5699 7620 11940 18170 9898 21220 7767 10100 8251 1758 14130 26760 4477 6334 53710 20770 7676 3039 28100 10330 13100 55490 1755 11660 6431 8374 3039
2021-08-25 984 577600 26810 36900 125700 436200 132300 103500 253700 198100 31680 175200 80680 54850 629100 11980 6691 18610 65280 7096 8346 21610 2313 23760 13840 5741 7644 11950 18180 9902 21250 7772 10110 8289 1760 14160 26760 4481 6354 53720 20790 7770 3043 28120 10360 13140 55650 1759 11670 6456 8387 3044
2021-08-26 986 578600 26820 36970 126000 436700 133700 104000 254500 198200 31830 176000 81000 55010 629900 12020 6708 18610 65340 7102 8346 21670 2317 23780 13850 5775 7668 11980 18180 9909 21250 7779 10120 8320 1762 14200 26770 4485 6371 53730 20810 7770 3057 28140 10390 13180 55810 1766 11670 6489 8392 3049
2021-08-27 988 579400 26830 37030 126200 437100 135000 104500 255100 198200 31980 176700 81300 55170 632100 12040 6735 18650 65430 7110 8353 21700 2318 23790 13860 5784 7671 12040 18190 9915 21280 7787 10120 8353 1765 14250 26780 4492 6388 53740 20840 7782 3071 28150 10410 13220 55940 1771 11680 6502 8400 3049

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateUKEUBEBGBSDEESFRGRITNLPTRO
2021-08-20 131487 747841 25320 18459 6582 91980 83136 111856 13295 128683 17939 17622 34388
2021-08-21 131600 748100 25320 18470 6586 91990 83210 111900 13320 128700 17950 17630 34390
2021-08-22 131700 748300 25330 18480 6589 91990 83240 112000 13340 128800 17950 17650 34390
2021-08-23 131700 748600 25330 18500 6591 92010 83320 112000 13350 128800 17950 17660 34400
2021-08-24 131800 748900 25330 18510 6595 92030 83420 112100 13370 128800 17960 17670 34400
2021-08-25 131900 749200 25340 18520 6599 92050 83510 112100 13390 128900 17960 17690 34400
2021-08-26 132000 749400 25340 18540 6603 92060 83590 112200 13410 128900 17970 17700 34400
2021-08-27 132100 749700 25340 18550 6606 92070 83660 112200 13430 128900 17980 17710 34400

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2021-08-20 978 573511 26758 36566 124023 433589 123981 100810 252080 197752 31198 171480 78983 54095 627843 11942 6614 18561 65021 7067 8336 21472 2283 23718 13797 5498 7517 11918 18162 9888 21219 7760 9975 7991 1755 14059 26739 4472 6280 53681 20684 7676 3012 28059 10213 12940 55055 1748 11647 6353 8368 3008
2021-08-21 980 574400 26770 36610 124100 434000 125200 101300 252900 197800 31420 172200 79260 54270 628600 11970 6633 18590 65090 7069 8343 21500 2287 23730 13800 5532 7534 11960 18170 9894 21230 7763 9990 8024 1757 14080 26750 4475 6285 53700 20700 7677 3021 28080 10240 12970 55170 1752 11650 6367 8373 3012
2021-08-22 982 574800 26780 36650 124300 434500 126500 101700 252900 197900 31560 172900 79530 54420 628600 11980 6649 18590 65130 7070 8345 21510 2289 23730 13800 5540 7539 11990 18170 9896 21240 7763 10010 8038 1757 14090 26750 4477 6288 53710 20710 7680 3025 28080 10260 12980 55210 1753 11660 6369 8374 3013
2021-08-23 985 575200 26790 36690 124400 435000 127800 102200 253200 197900 31690 173600 79820 54570 628800 11990 6667 18600 65180 7079 8348 21530 2293 23750 13810 5551 7555 12040 18180 9899 21240 7766 10020 8076 1758 14130 26750 4479 6302 53720 20720 7685 3035 28090 10280 13000 55260 1758 11660 6373 8376 3015
2021-08-24 987 576200 26800 36710 124500 435400 129100 102600 254000 198000 31840 174300 80200 54730 629200 12010 6686 18610 65230 7085 8350 21570 2298 23760 13840 5558 7565 12100 18180 9905 21250 7770 10080 8125 1761 14140 26750 4483 6326 53730 20730 7689 3046 28110 10300 13020 55340 1760 11660 6381 8379 3020
2021-08-25 990 577000 26820 36730 124600 435900 130600 103000 254700 198100 31980 175000 80540 54880 629600 12030 6704 18620 65280 7090 8353 21600 2303 23780 13850 5569 7575 12150 18190 9909 21260 7776 10090 8150 1763 14170 26760 4486 6343 53750 20740 7717 3054 28120 10310 13040 55460 1764 11670 6392 8384 3022
2021-08-26 993 577800 26830 36780 124700 436300 132100 103400 255300 198100 32150 175700 80890 55040 629900 12050 6721 18630 65350 7097 8355 21630 2306 23800 13860 5579 7584 12190 18190 9914 21270 7782 10110 8176 1765 14200 26760 4489 6362 53770 20750 7723 3063 28140 10330 13060 55550 1767 11670 6404 8387 3024
2021-08-27 996 578600 26840 36820 124800 436700 133400 103700 255900 198200 32330 176400 81230 55200 630700 12060 6740 18650 65400 7105 8360 21650 2310 23820 13870 5594 7592 12250 18200 9918 21280 7789 10120 8210 1767 14230 26760 4493 6388 53780 20760 7728 3072 28150 10350 13080 55620 1770 11680 6411 8389 3026

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths