COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-08-26


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-08-26

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-032021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-2111-162021-05-032021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2111-12
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 124 55 215 857 38 927 6 601 82 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 173 139 52 105 11 98
Days since peak 219 273 252 296 141 241 170 225 223 295 248 283 115 120 148 219 268 230 135 210 79 218 265 141 127 287
Last total 132143 750325 10772 25354 18647 6629 30393 92108 2573 83861 1018 112415 13487 8316 30056 5092 128957 17982 75332 17689 34471 14682 4444 12547 814 10958
Last daily increment 140 492 2 6 34 9 6 18 2 171 0 106 28 6 1 0 43 8 3 15 18 8 1 0 0 -2
Last week 656 2484 11 34 188 47 9 128 10 725 6 559 192 21 10 18 274 43 17 67 83 14 6 0 3 18
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-04
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 207 226 15 957 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 57
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 35 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-08-26

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-06-252021-06-102021-07-29 --2021-06-012021-04-11 --2021-08-162021-07-212021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-07-222021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-08-1912-072021-03-092021-05-18 --2021-04-092021-08-1812-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-08-162021-01-1412-162021-04-072021-04-062021-01-132021-02-012021-08-042021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-07-282021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2996 147 118 654 6246 1722 3098 813 780 390 354 3330 14 134 43 154 612 151 38 5 115 178 138 48 54 18 148 100 9 231 155 106 480 10 126 114 71 14 30 27 25 25 1566 94 20 191 194 1325 20 211 94 4 18 336 9 326 2 80 65 128 10
Days since peak 357 142 222 150 62 77 28 86 137 10 36 121 223 133 205 255 223 183 260 227 204 27 217 213 212 145 259 259 253 35 86 283 371 91 7 262 170 100 139 8 260 266 454 427 92 10 224 253 141 142 225 206 22 76 219 62 176 236 240 29 167 231
Last total 991 577565 26929 36778 124567 436861 130182 104716 256287 198031 32728 176127 80826 55469 633564 438 12103 6806 18661 65508 7095 8354 1158 1872 36973 21762 570 6268 2319 23876 13915 5538 7667 12298 18200 9929 926 21272 7793 10194 8214 1781 14272 1556 2230 1409 26807 4497 6398 53828 20724 7812 3095 28158 10413 2062 13097 56055 1775 11729 273 6468 8429 3049 835
Last daily increment 2 920 10 60 93 496 889 694 835 87 236 799 357 257 1292 0 103 32 23 109 7 20 3 3 0 92 0 0 3 59 12 0 27 72 13 5 0 0 11 12 34 8 60 1 0 2 11 9 22 31 0 0 9 27 56 1 67 257 6 14 2 23 13 13 0
Last week 13 4054 139 212 544 2897 6201 3906 4207 279 1530 4647 1843 1374 5721 24 161 192 100 487 28 18 3 21 0 290 11 42 36 158 118 40 150 380 38 41 4 53 33 219 223 26 213 6 0 13 68 25 118 147 40 136 83 99 200 3 157 1000 27 82 3 115 61 41 26
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-1412-2604-132021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-152021-01-142021-02-032021-02-02 --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1804-232021-01-2912-1505-0507-2812-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1065 186 785 389 1662 310 479 1724 918 246 566 253 2233 13 99 124 78 139 72 105 11 13 175 354 6 313 19 112 99 209 353 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 45 27 96 40 317 31 41 3552 43 40 23 135 45 23 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 96 92 131 175 95 43 63 528 0 9 10 6 41 2 1 0 -1 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 7 10 -1 5 0 6 8 -2 1 5 1 52 -85 3 7 12 1 2 12 14 0 5 70 1 9 0 6 -43 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateUKEUBEBGBSDEESFRGRHRITNLPTRO
2021-08-26 132143 750325 25354 18647 6629 92108 83861 112415 13487 8316 128957 17982 17689 34471
2021-08-27 132200 750700 25360 18700 6635 92110 84030 112500 13520 8319 129000 17990 17700 34480
2021-08-28 132300 750900 25360 18720 6635 92110 84080 112500 13550 8319 129100 17990 17720 34500
2021-08-29 132300 751100 25360 18750 6635 92110 84130 112600 13570 8319 129100 18000 17730 34510
2021-08-30 132300 751500 25360 18790 6635 92140 84340 112600 13600 8319 129100 18000 17740 34520
2021-08-31 132500 751900 25360 18820 6638 92170 84520 112700 13630 8319 129200 18010 17750 34530
2021-09-01 132600 752300 25370 18850 6642 92190 84700 112700 13660 8320 129200 18010 17760 34540
2021-09-02 132700 752800 25370 18880 6647 92210 84800 112800 13690 8322 129300 18020 17770 34560

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-26 577565 26929 36778 124567 436861 130182 104716 256287 198031 32728 176127 80826 55469 633564 438 12103 6806 18661 65508 7095 1872 21762 6268 2319 23876 13915 5538 7667 12298 18200 9929 21272 7793 10194 8214 1781 14272 26807 4497 6398 53828 20724 7812 3095 28158 10413 13097 56055 1775 11729 6468 8429 3049 835
2021-08-27 578800 26930 36860 124600 437300 131200 105300 256300 198100 33030 176900 81250 55730 634300 440 12220 6832 18680 65530 7107 1873 21860 6268 2320 23880 13920 5543 7704 12310 18210 9931 21290 7797 10190 8215 1785 14270 26810 4500 6423 53850 20730 7838 3095 28160 10440 13120 56280 1778 11750 6468 8454 3060 835
2021-08-28 579700 26930 36940 124700 437700 132500 105600 256600 198200 33340 177600 81550 55960 634300 442 12310 6839 18710 65570 7108 1873 21900 6268 2320 23880 13920 5543 7714 12310 18210 9938 21290 7797 10210 8215 1785 14270 26810 4500 6423 53850 20730 7846 3095 28160 10440 13120 56470 1778 11790 6468 8462 3063 835
2021-08-29 580000 26930 37000 124800 438200 133700 106100 256600 198300 33620 178300 81740 56200 634300 444 12360 6854 18710 65600 7108 1873 21940 6268 2320 23880 13920 5543 7725 12310 18210 9938 21290 7797 10210 8215 1785 14270 26810 4500 6423 53860 20740 7856 3095 28160 10440 13120 56610 1778 11820 6468 8470 3067 835
2021-08-30 580400 26930 37060 124800 438600 134800 106300 256600 198300 33870 179000 81940 56430 634300 446 12400 6872 18710 65610 7121 1873 22010 6271 2328 23890 13920 5543 7758 12310 18210 9938 21290 7799 10210 8215 1785 14290 26810 4503 6446 53870 20740 7874 3095 28160 10440 13130 56790 1780 11850 6468 8477 3076 835
2021-08-31 581400 26930 37080 124900 439000 135900 106600 256900 198400 34110 179700 82340 56670 635300 448 12450 6892 18730 65680 7128 1873 22070 6277 2333 23900 13960 5543 7758 12420 18220 9943 21290 7805 10330 8290 1785 14300 26830 4506 6485 53880 20750 7899 3095 28170 10440 13140 57050 1784 11870 6485 8497 3083 851
2021-09-01 582300 26950 37100 124900 439400 137000 106800 257600 198400 34340 180400 82800 56910 636500 450 12500 6915 18740 65790 7133 1873 22150 6306 2343 23930 13980 5557 7777 12510 18220 9947 21330 7812 10350 8316 1787 14350 26840 4511 6506 53900 20750 7903 3100 28200 10440 13160 57320 1792 11890 6514 8503 3090 851
2021-09-02 583200 26960 37170 125000 439900 138000 107100 258500 198500 34560 181100 83130 57150 637500 451 12550 6938 18750 65880 7140 1873 22200 6306 2344 23980 13980 5557 7797 12570 18230 9956 21330 7821 10360 8341 1789 14390 26850 4518 6525 53920 20760 7922 3112 28220 10460 13190 57470 1798 11910 6533 8510 3094 851

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateUKEUBEBGBSDEESFRGRHRITNLPTRO
2021-08-26 132143 750325 25354 18647 6629 92108 83861 112415 13487 8316 128957 17982 17689 34471
2021-08-27 132300 750700 25360 18680 6634 92130 84010 112500 13520 8319 129000 17990 17700 34480
2021-08-28 132300 751000 25360 18700 6638 92130 84050 112600 13540 8320 129100 18000 17710 34490
2021-08-29 132400 751300 25360 18720 6641 92140 84110 112700 13570 8322 129100 18000 17720 34490
2021-08-30 132500 751800 25370 18750 6647 92170 84240 112700 13600 8324 129100 18000 17730 34500
2021-08-31 132600 752200 25370 18770 6651 92190 84350 112800 13620 8325 129200 18010 17740 34500
2021-09-01 132700 752600 25380 18800 6656 92210 84460 112900 13650 8327 129200 18020 17760 34510
2021-09-02 132800 753000 25380 18820 6661 92220 84550 113000 13680 8330 129300 18020 17770 34520

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-26 577565 26929 36778 124567 436861 130182 104716 256287 198031 32728 176127 80826 55469 633564 438 12103 6806 18661 65508 7095 1872 21762 6268 2319 23876 13915 5538 7667 12298 18200 9929 21272 7793 10194 8214 1781 14272 26807 4497 6398 53828 20724 7812 3095 28158 10413 13097 56055 1775 11729 6468 8429 3049 835
2021-08-27 578400 26950 36820 124700 437300 131200 105200 257100 198100 33000 176900 81150 55680 635600 442 12160 6831 18690 65620 7102 1873 21830 6275 2323 23910 13930 5552 7698 12370 18210 9935 21290 7802 10220 8256 1785 14320 26820 4504 6422 53850 20730 7830 3108 28180 10440 13130 56260 1781 11740 6486 8444 3059 837
2021-08-28 579100 26950 36860 124800 437800 132300 105600 257800 198200 33260 177600 81420 55860 635700 444 12190 6850 18710 65700 7104 1874 21850 6276 2325 23910 13930 5557 7711 12400 18210 9942 21300 7803 10240 8270 1786 14330 26820 4505 6426 53860 20740 7834 3114 28190 10450 13140 56370 1783 11750 6486 8447 3061 839
2021-08-29 579500 26960 36890 124900 438200 133300 105900 257900 198200 33490 178300 81650 56050 635700 446 12210 6869 18720 65760 7106 1875 21870 6277 2327 23920 13940 5561 7723 12430 18220 9946 21300 7803 10250 8278 1787 14330 26820 4507 6431 53880 20740 7842 3120 28190 10460 13160 56410 1784 11770 6486 8450 3062 840
2021-08-30 579900 26970 36920 125000 438600 134200 106200 258200 198300 33700 179000 81880 56230 636100 448 12230 6890 18720 65780 7115 1875 21910 6280 2335 23940 13950 5566 7749 12480 18220 9949 21310 7808 10260 8307 1789 14370 26820 4512 6450 53900 20750 7852 3132 28200 10490 13180 56470 1788 11770 6491 8452 3067 842
2021-08-31 580700 26990 36940 125000 439000 135200 106500 259000 198300 33890 179700 82230 56420 636600 450 12240 6911 18740 65840 7121 1876 21950 6282 2338 23950 13980 5574 7760 12560 18230 9956 21310 7813 10340 8375 1792 14390 26830 4515 6484 53920 20760 7860 3142 28210 10510 13210 56610 1791 11780 6501 8461 3070 852
2021-09-01 581600 27010 36960 125100 439400 136200 106800 259800 198400 34090 180500 82610 56620 637100 451 12270 6932 18750 65910 7127 1882 21990 6298 2344 23980 14010 5592 7775 12620 18230 9960 21330 7819 10360 8403 1794 14430 26830 4519 6505 53930 20760 7888 3151 28230 10530 13230 56750 1796 11790 6511 8465 3074 854
2021-09-02 582400 27020 37000 125200 439900 137300 107100 260600 198400 34310 181200 82930 56810 637500 453 12300 6953 18760 65990 7133 1884 22030 6299 2346 24000 14020 5597 7795 12680 18240 9968 21340 7826 10380 8421 1797 14460 26840 4523 6523 53950 20770 7899 3165 28240 10550 13250 56850 1800 11800 6523 8469 3077 855

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths