COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-09-09


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-09-09

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-042021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-212021-03-262021-09-042021-04-282021-04-022021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2112-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 112 208 124 55 215 857 38 931 6 598 107 44 254 56 723 99 540 279 173 140 52 105 11 95
Days since peak 233 287 266 309 155 255 184 239 237 309 262 167 5 134 160 233 282 244 149 224 93 232 279 155 141 267
Last total 133841 756678 10822 25447 19387 6781 30413 92559 2604 85218 1042 113475 14060 8405 30080 5155 129766 18058 75409 17836 34871 14702 4462 12556 827 10945
Last daily increment 167 575 7 5 52 13 5 96 5 71 3 90 46 10 3 0 59 3 6 10 79 2 1 3 1 5
Last week 800 2809 37 50 336 62 8 228 17 423 11 433 323 50 19 43 356 32 37 64 221 10 9 7 5 27
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-02
Previous peak daily increment 964 3090 20 322 142 207 226 15 945 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 57
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 35 97 3 0 -1283 0 7 7 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-09-09

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-032021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-06-252021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-06-012021-04-142021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-04-272021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-0312-1012-1012-162021-08-202021-06-012021-09-0108-202021-05-272021-08-1912-072021-03-092021-05-18 --2021-04-092021-08-3012-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-08-272021-01-1412-162021-09-01 --2021-01-132021-02-012021-08-042021-08-302021-01-192021-06-252021-03-0312-2712-292021-07-282021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 35 2995 147 116 654 6187 1726 622 2955 814 210 390 354 3330 14 134 43 154 655 151 38 5 114 178 137 47 55 18 148 99 46 237 64 106 482 9 126 114 70 14 46 27 25 26 1568 93 21 191 194 87 211 93 4 35 337 9 326 2 82 66 129 9
Days since peak 371 156 236 164 76 91 40 14 100 148 19 50 135 237 147 219 269 237 197 274 241 218 41 231 227 226 159 273 273 267 20 100 8 385 105 21 276 184 114 153 10 274 280 468 441 106 13 238 267 8 239 220 36 10 233 76 190 256 254 43 181 245
Last total 1076 585174 27190 37159 125480 442009 138116 112935 266150 198621 34733 186999 84327 59170 654583 456 12552 7169 19141 66791 7254 8414 1164 1900 36973 22810 629 6337 2447 24216 14308 5697 7971 12992 18320 10074 951 21581 7874 10596 8870 1830 15004 1571 2230 1435 27024 4585 6681 54244 21015 8208 3394 28498 11050 2080 13658 59338 1830 12010 283 6847 8589 3189 879
Last daily increment 10 753 26 37 53 260 334 505 730 26 61 775 175 257 1926 0 64 27 62 140 12 1 1 6 0 181 7 0 21 21 50 0 36 77 18 27 5 0 9 21 83 2 110 4 0 5 17 8 44 50 0 0 21 52 54 2 72 411 4 33 1 59 32 20 0
Last week 40 2504 129 118 322 1784 3186 3386 3929 201 860 4658 1166 1611 7004 8 158 147 182 490 60 21 2 12 0 445 20 30 68 148 187 62 126 285 46 73 11 86 30 175 330 19 296 7 0 10 95 33 98 194 73 207 122 146 269 6 243 1343 21 111 3 159 68 72 21
Previous peak date --07-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-1412-2604-132021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-0310-2112-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1811-1604-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-152021-01-122021-02-032021-02-02 --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1804-232021-04-0712-1505-0507-2412-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 1066 186 787 389 1662 308 473 1833 917 223 564 253 2233 13 100 124 78 139 72 106 11 13 175 358 6 310 20 112 99 201 350 147 459 56 21 137 63 61 50 27 96 41 321 31 41 3569 43 1341 23 135 45 23 113 459 9 105 12 59 60 26 27
Low between peaks 371 3 37 96 92 131 71 171 95 84 43 63 529 0 9 10 6 42 2 1 0 -1 45 32 0 6 3 15 8 1 8 4 -2 5 0 6 8 -2 1 5 1 51 -84 3 7 12 -10 12 14 0 4 70 1 9 0 5 -44 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-10 to 2021-09-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSDEESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROCH
2021-09-09 133841 756678 10822 25447 19387 6781 92559 85218 113475 14060 8405 5155 129766 18058 75409 17836 34871 10945
2021-09-10 133900 757000 10830 25450 19390 6791 92560 85480 113600 14100 8414 5166 129800 18070 75410 17850 34930 10950
2021-09-11 134000 757200 10830 25450 19390 6793 92560 85500 113600 14150 8422 5166 129800 18080 75410 17860 34990 10960
2021-09-12 134000 757400 10840 25460 19390 6798 92560 85510 113700 14190 8430 5166 129900 18080 75410 17870 35040 10960
2021-09-13 134000 757800 10840 25460 19440 6805 92600 85650 113800 14230 8438 5172 129900 18080 75410 17880 35090 10970
2021-09-14 134200 758300 10850 25470 19510 6813 92630 85810 113900 14270 8446 5172 130000 18090 75420 17890 35140 10970
2021-09-15 134400 758800 10850 25470 19560 6821 92640 85900 113900 14310 8454 5172 130000 18090 75430 17900 35190 10980
2021-09-16 134500 759300 10860 25480 19600 6830 92710 86000 114000 14350 8462 5172 130100 18100 75430 17910 35240 10980

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-10 to 2021-09-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-09 1076 585174 27190 37159 125480 442009 138116 112935 266150 198621 34733 186999 84327 59170 654583 12552 7169 19141 66791 7254 8414 22810 629 6337 2447 24216 14308 5697 7971 12992 18320 10074 21581 7874 10596 8870 15004 27024 4585 6681 54244 21015 8208 3394 28498 11050 13658 59338 1830 12010 6847 8589 3189 879
2021-09-10 1081 585600 27200 37230 125500 442400 138400 113500 267000 198700 34880 187800 84900 59420 657100 12600 7204 19170 66900 7263 8428 22810 632 6377 2447 24240 14310 5733 7994 13070 18330 10070 21630 7881 10620 8897 15040 27030 4591 6711 54270 21020 8220 3403 28550 11080 13670 59580 1838 12030 6864 8597 3189 890
2021-09-11 1081 586000 27210 37270 125600 443000 138700 114200 267700 198700 35190 188500 85190 59670 657100 12620 7226 19190 66960 7263 8429 22810 633 6384 2447 24240 14310 5733 7994 13080 18330 10080 21630 7881 10630 8905 15040 27040 4591 6713 54270 21040 8224 3403 28580 11080 13670 59810 1839 12030 6864 8597 3190 890
2021-09-12 1081 586000 27210 37310 125700 443500 139100 114800 268000 198800 35420 189300 85320 59910 657100 12620 7247 19190 67020 7263 8429 22810 635 6390 2447 24240 14310 5735 7994 13080 18330 10080 21630 7881 10640 8908 15040 27040 4591 6713 54280 21050 8237 3403 28610 11080 13670 59930 1840 12040 6864 8597 3190 891
2021-09-13 1081 586000 27210 37340 125800 444000 139400 115400 268300 198800 35610 190000 85530 60150 657500 12620 7267 19190 67040 7273 8429 22810 638 6390 2448 24240 14310 5741 8008 13090 18330 10080 21630 7883 10640 9009 15040 27040 4591 6727 54300 21050 8277 3403 28620 11190 13670 60010 1841 12050 6864 8603 3202 891
2021-09-14 1081 586000 27250 37360 125800 444400 139700 115900 269200 198900 35790 190700 85890 60390 658700 12640 7301 19210 67070 7274 8430 22930 641 6390 2471 24290 14340 5747 8048 13150 18340 10080 21640 7891 10680 9050 15120 27060 4597 6751 54320 21060 8277 3431 28650 11200 13740 60110 1851 12060 6890 8610 3204 901
2021-09-15 1085 586100 27290 37370 125900 444800 140000 116500 270100 198900 35960 191400 86110 60630 660700 12680 7329 19240 67210 7287 8430 22990 644 6404 2486 24340 14410 5800 8077 13300 18350 10100 21700 7899 10780 9136 15180 27080 4610 6781 54340 21070 8455 3479 28690 11240 13800 60390 1856 12080 6934 8632 3222 901
2021-09-16 1089 586800 27320 37420 126000 445100 140300 117100 270900 199000 36110 192200 86310 60880 662300 12740 7354 19280 67330 7297 8438 23130 647 6404 2500 24370 14450 5800 8108 13370 18350 10120 21700 7909 10790 9198 15270 27100 4619 6815 54360 21070 8455 3499 28730 11290 13860 60720 1862 12090 6977 8652 3236 901

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-10 to 2021-09-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSDEESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROCH
2021-09-09 133841 756678 10822 25447 19387 6781 92559 85218 113475 14060 8405 5155 129766 18058 75409 17836 34871 10945
2021-09-10 134000 757200 10830 25450 19440 6792 92590 85330 113500 14100 8413 5164 129800 18060 75420 17850 34920 10950
2021-09-11 134100 757600 10830 25450 19470 6799 92600 85390 113600 14140 8420 5170 129900 18070 75420 17860 34940 10960
2021-09-12 134200 757900 10830 25460 19510 6808 92600 85440 113700 14180 8427 5175 129900 18070 75420 17870 34960 10960
2021-09-13 134200 758400 10840 25460 19560 6816 92650 85550 113700 14220 8433 5182 130000 18080 75420 17880 34990 10970
2021-09-14 134300 758900 10840 25470 19600 6827 92680 85680 113800 14260 8440 5186 130000 18090 75430 17890 35010 10970
2021-09-15 134500 759300 10850 25470 19660 6836 92690 85790 113900 14290 8446 5191 130100 18090 75430 17900 35030 10980
2021-09-16 134600 759700 10850 25480 19700 6846 92730 85920 114000 14330 8454 5197 130100 18100 75440 17910 35050 10980

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-10 to 2021-09-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-09 1076 585174 27190 37159 125480 442009 138116 112935 266150 198621 34733 186999 84327 59170 654583 12552 7169 19141 66791 7254 8414 22810 629 6337 2447 24216 14308 5697 7971 12992 18320 10074 21581 7874 10596 8870 15004 27024 4585 6681 54244 21015 8208 3394 28498 11050 13658 59338 1830 12010 6847 8589 3189 879
2021-09-10 1082 585700 27210 37180 125500 442400 138800 113400 266900 198700 34870 187700 84560 59440 657600 12600 7192 19200 66910 7269 8421 22910 633 6344 2456 24250 14340 5725 7998 13050 18330 10090 21620 7880 10630 8933 15090 27040 4593 6707 54270 21030 8239 3422 28530 11080 13710 59660 1834 12030 6895 8601 3197 882
2021-09-11 1085 586200 27220 37210 125600 442800 139400 113800 267600 198700 35040 188400 84790 59710 657800 12630 7210 19220 66970 7272 8423 22940 635 6351 2457 24250 14350 5729 8011 13070 18340 10100 21630 7881 10640 8943 15090 27040 4596 6710 54290 21050 8255 3432 28560 11110 13730 59880 1836 12040 6898 8601 3201 886
2021-09-12 1087 586500 27220 37230 125600 443200 139900 114300 267800 198700 35200 189100 84940 59970 657900 12640 7227 19240 67050 7276 8425 22970 639 6354 2458 24260 14350 5734 8023 13090 18340 10100 21630 7881 10660 8951 15100 27040 4599 6713 54310 21060 8269 3441 28570 11140 13760 60000 1837 12060 6901 8601 3204 889
2021-09-13 1091 586700 27230 37240 125700 443600 140400 114700 268100 198800 35350 189800 85140 60230 658300 12650 7244 19250 67090 7289 8428 23010 642 6357 2460 24270 14360 5740 8041 13110 18350 10110 21640 7883 10670 9047 15110 27050 4602 6726 54330 21070 8289 3452 28580 11210 13780 60080 1839 12070 6903 8606 3215 890
2021-09-14 1095 587200 27260 37260 125700 443900 140800 115100 269000 198800 35500 190500 85440 60500 659000 12670 7269 19270 67120 7295 8430 23090 644 6359 2478 24310 14410 5745 8073 13160 18360 10110 21660 7890 10730 9089 15190 27060 4608 6756 54350 21090 8294 3481 28610 11240 13830 60180 1845 12090 6925 8609 3220 905
2021-09-15 1099 587700 27300 37270 125800 444200 141400 115500 270000 198900 35650 191100 85700 60760 660200 12690 7291 19300 67230 7303 8433 23160 647 6372 2488 24340 14460 5764 8096 13250 18370 10120 21690 7896 10760 9158 15240 27060 4616 6787 54370 21100 8380 3510 28630 11290 13860 60350 1849 12100 6955 8621 3232 907
2021-09-16 1104 588400 27320 37310 125800 444600 142100 115900 270800 198900 35790 191800 85980 61020 661000 12730 7313 19320 67360 7313 8438 23250 651 6376 2494 24380 14480 5769 8124 13300 18370 10140 21700 7909 10780 9198 15330 27070 4624 6813 54390 21110 8390 3528 28660 11330 13900 60620 1853 12110 6980 8629 3241 908

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths