COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-09-17


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-09-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-032021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-212021-03-262021-09-042021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2112-16
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 124 55 215 857 38 927 6 619 85 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 173 139 52 105 11 95
Days since peak 241 295 274 318 163 263 192 247 245 317 270 175 13 142 170 241 290 252 157 232 101 240 287 163 149 275
Last total 134983 760690 10882 25497 19955 6919 30427 92928 2622 85783 1052 113923 14394 8481 30123 5179 130233 18107 75473 17895 35359 14775 4492 12569 841 10999
Last daily increment 178 523 12 3 79 14 5 22 3 44 0 87 40 9 5 0 66 10 9 7 73 22 6 3 0 8
Last week 839 3220 45 43 486 106 14 316 11 493 9 308 253 54 37 24 348 39 48 42 398 72 23 11 14 48
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-02
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 207 226 15 957 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 57
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 35 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 7 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-09-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-172021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-06-252021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-06-012021-04-112021-08-20 --2021-07-212021-09-042021-01-152021-04-152021-02-0212-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-03 --12-1012-162021-08-202021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-05-18 --2021-04-092021-02-0212-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-08-162021-01-1412-162021-08-25 --2021-01-13 --2021-08-042021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-07-282021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 4 2996 147 118 654 6246 1725 625 3098 813 222 390 269 3330 14 134 43 154 612 151 38 5 115 178 138 48 54 148 100 35 231 155 106 480 8 126 114 71 14 96 27 25 25 1566 94 21 191 194 44 211 4 18 336 9 326 2 80 68 128 10
Days since peak 31 164 244 172 84 99 48 22 108 159 28 58 13 245 155 227 277 245 205 282 249 226 49 239 235 234 167 281 275 28 108 305 393 113 192 284 192 122 161 227 282 288 476 449 114 32 246 275 23 247 44 98 241 84 198 258 262 51 189 253
Last total 1148 589573 27421 37318 125826 444248 140138 116436 270538 198891 36328 193111 85952 61140 672635 469 13048 7412 19379 67781 7374 8460 1167 1913 36973 23753 689 6401 2613 24547 14615 5868 8251 13418 18433 10193 981 21821 7983 10783 9214 1877 15615 1585 2230 1456 27165 4675 6845 54530 21466 8439 3569 28812 11614 2101 14111 61558 1875 12242 296 7198 8703 3370 918
Last daily increment 7 327 44 25 44 0 219 364 190 0 310 771 173 237 2635 1 192 17 19 113 25 15 0 0 0 110 15 0 13 54 34 63 45 52 22 26 2 77 13 14 49 12 95 1 0 5 17 13 24 104 206 0 22 44 82 4 52 353 3 35 2 56 21 57 0
Last week 57 3015 186 117 234 1593 1437 2612 3014 163 1350 4565 1201 1497 12944 11 375 180 196 723 100 38 2 13 0 795 41 64 141 285 285 98 248 362 96 98 20 176 91 162 309 43 540 12 0 16 111 70 143 209 317 231 155 248 465 16 443 1497 32 206 9 283 90 163 39
Previous peak date09-0307-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-2704-132021-01-2009-1609-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-0310-2112-1112-1005-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-152021-01-142021-02-03 -- --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1804-232021-04-0712-1605-052021-02-0112-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 35 1065 186 785 389 1662 310 473 1724 918 223 566 354 2233 13 99 124 78 139 72 105 11 13 175 354 6 313 18 112 99 209 353 64 459 56 21 137 63 61 45 27 40 317 31 41 3552 43 1325 26 135 94 23 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 26 27
Low between peaks 0 371 3 37 96 92 131 71 175 95 84 43 33 528 0 9 10 6 41 2 1 0 -1 45 32 0 6 15 8 1 7 10 -1 5 1 6 8 -2 1 1 52 -85 3 7 12 -8 12 0 5 70 1 9 0 6 -47 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESICH
2021-09-17 134983 760690 10882 25497 19955 6919 92928 85783 113923 14394 8481 30123 5179 130233 18107 75473 17895 35359 14775 4492 10999
2021-09-18 135100 760900 10890 25510 19960 6925 92930 85900 114000 14440 8490 30130 5179 130300 18110 75470 17900 35440 14790 4497 11000
2021-09-19 135100 761000 10890 25510 19970 6925 92930 85940 114100 14480 8497 30130 5181 130300 18110 75470 17920 35520 14800 4501 11000
2021-09-20 135100 761600 10890 25520 20070 6925 92970 86080 114100 14510 8506 30140 5181 130400 18110 75470 17930 35600 14810 4505 11010
2021-09-21 135300 762200 10890 25520 20140 6925 93020 86240 114200 14550 8514 30150 5181 130400 18120 75480 17940 35680 14820 4508 11020
2021-09-22 135500 762600 10890 25530 20180 6925 93060 86340 114300 14590 8522 30150 5201 130500 18130 75490 17950 35750 14830 4512 11020
2021-09-23 135600 763100 10890 25530 20250 6931 93120 86430 114300 14630 8530 30160 5201 130500 18140 75500 17960 35830 14840 4516 11030
2021-09-24 135800 763600 10890 25540 20310 6937 93140 86480 114400 14670 8538 30160 5211 130600 18140 75510 17970 35900 14850 4520 11040

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-17 1148 589573 27421 37318 125826 444248 140138 116436 270538 198891 36328 193111 85952 61140 672635 13048 7412 19379 67781 7374 8460 23753 689 6401 2613 24547 14615 5868 8251 13418 18433 10193 981 21821 7983 10783 9214 1877 15615 27165 4675 6845 54530 21466 8439 3569 28812 11614 14111 61558 1875 12242 7198 8703 3370 918
2021-09-18 1155 590400 27420 37360 125900 444500 140600 116800 272000 199000 36500 193900 86310 61380 672600 13140 7431 19420 67810 7374 8460 23750 689 6401 2630 24550 14620 5868 8251 13440 18450 10190 986 21820 7983 10860 9225 1877 15620 27170 4675 6852 54600 21550 8439 3607 28810 11610 14110 61800 1877 12270 7221 8703 3396 925
2021-09-19 1155 590800 27420 37410 125900 445100 142000 117300 272300 199000 36520 194600 86510 61630 672600 13180 7456 19420 67840 7374 8460 23750 691 6402 2633 24550 14620 5868 8251 13440 18450 10190 992 21820 7983 10870 9225 1877 15620 27170 4675 6852 54660 21630 8439 3618 28810 11610 14110 61880 1877 12270 7226 8703 3407 927
2021-09-20 1155 591000 27440 37440 126000 445600 142900 117700 272500 199100 36610 195300 86690 61870 673800 13230 7480 19420 67910 7395 8461 23790 691 6402 2645 24600 14630 5868 8285 13440 18450 10190 998 21840 7983 10870 9295 1879 15690 27190 4677 6873 54710 21720 8439 3651 28810 11720 14150 61960 1879 12270 7275 8717 3439 930
2021-09-21 1158 591600 27470 37450 126000 446000 143600 118100 273500 199100 36720 196000 87020 62100 675300 13310 7511 19500 67970 7406 8474 23890 691 6402 2668 24630 14700 5868 8311 13500 18450 10200 1003 21850 7986 10990 9360 1883 15750 27200 4685 6903 54760 21820 8439 3697 28850 11750 14240 62070 1887 12280 7323 8728 3458 957
2021-09-22 1163 592300 27510 37470 126100 446300 144300 118500 274400 199100 36840 196700 87220 62330 677400 13410 7537 19520 68120 7424 8477 24040 695 6468 2679 24660 14750 5898 8348 13670 18450 10220 1007 21910 8010 10990 9413 1892 15820 27220 4698 6929 54810 21910 8618 3752 28870 11830 14300 62400 1892 12300 7352 8749 3483 969
2021-09-23 1168 592900 27530 37500 126100 446600 144800 118900 274900 199200 36980 197400 87470 62560 680700 13530 7566 19550 68280 7430 8484 24220 701 6468 2682 24700 14790 5898 8402 13720 18460 10230 1012 21910 8024 10990 9473 1898 15930 27240 4710 6961 54850 22000 8618 3769 28940 11880 14360 62760 1900 12320 7400 8770 3502 970
2021-09-24 1174 593400 27560 37540 126200 446900 145400 119300 275100 199200 37120 198100 87670 62790 682800 13640 7583 19580 68400 7453 8495 24310 712 6473 2695 24750 14810 5954 8437 13760 18470 10250 1016 21970 8032 10990 9502 1905 16000 27260 4722 6978 54900 22090 8618 3779 28980 11950 14390 63090 1904 12340 7450 8788 3515 970

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESICH
2021-09-17 134983 760690 10882 25497 19955 6919 92928 85783 113923 14394 8481 30123 5179 130233 18107 75473 17895 35359 14775 4492 10999
2021-09-18 135100 761100 10890 25500 20000 6933 92950 85810 114000 14430 8491 30130 5179 130300 18120 75480 17900 35410 14790 4496 11000
2021-09-19 135200 761400 10890 25500 20050 6946 92950 85850 114000 14470 8501 30130 5183 130300 18120 75480 17910 35450 14790 4498 11010
2021-09-20 135300 762000 10900 25510 20130 6960 93010 85940 114100 14510 8509 30140 5188 130400 18120 75490 17920 35480 14800 4500 11010
2021-09-21 135400 762600 10900 25520 20190 6971 93060 86050 114200 14550 8517 30140 5190 130400 18130 75490 17930 35520 14820 4503 11020
2021-09-22 135600 763000 10900 25520 20250 6983 93090 86130 114200 14590 8525 30150 5201 130500 18130 75500 17940 35550 14820 4505 11020
2021-09-23 135700 763500 10910 25530 20300 6995 93130 86220 114300 14630 8535 30150 5204 130600 18140 75510 17950 35580 14830 4508 11030
2021-09-24 135800 763900 10910 25530 20350 7008 93170 86300 114400 14660 8544 30150 5210 130600 18140 75510 17950 35610 14840 4510 11040

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-17 1148 589573 27421 37318 125826 444248 140138 116436 270538 198891 36328 193111 85952 61140 672635 13048 7412 19379 67781 7374 8460 23753 689 6401 2613 24547 14615 5868 8251 13418 18433 10193 981 21821 7983 10783 9214 1877 15615 27165 4675 6845 54530 21466 8439 3569 28812 11614 14111 61558 1875 12242 7198 8703 3370 918
2021-09-18 1155 590100 27430 37340 125900 444500 140600 116800 271500 198900 36520 193900 86120 61390 673500 13140 7433 19410 67860 7382 8462 23830 698 6404 2635 24570 14630 5878 8277 13450 18450 10210 984 21840 7989 10810 9222 1882 15660 27180 4683 6854 54580 21540 8446 3578 28850 11650 14150 61880 1878 12270 7210 8706 3395 919
2021-09-19 1160 590400 27440 37360 125900 444800 141200 117100 271800 199000 36610 194600 86250 61640 673500 13160 7454 19430 67900 7386 8465 23870 702 6408 2640 24580 14630 5883 8286 13460 18450 10220 986 21850 7991 10830 9228 1883 15670 27180 4686 6859 54610 21570 8458 3584 28860 11670 14170 61980 1879 12280 7212 8706 3398 923
2021-09-20 1165 590600 27460 37380 125900 445100 141700 117400 272000 199000 36720 195300 86400 61880 674500 13180 7475 19440 67970 7402 8468 23940 704 6409 2651 24630 14660 5889 8315 13480 18460 10220 988 21870 7998 10850 9298 1886 15760 27190 4692 6879 54640 21610 8464 3604 28880 11760 14220 62060 1882 12290 7238 8712 3413 926
2021-09-21 1171 591200 27490 37390 126000 445400 142200 117600 272900 199000 36840 196000 86630 62120 675600 13200 7497 19490 68030 7414 8473 24050 707 6411 2672 24660 14730 5895 8341 13520 18470 10240 991 21880 8009 10930 9362 1890 15820 27200 4701 6907 54670 21650 8473 3640 28920 11800 14290 62160 1887 12300 7280 8719 3426 944
2021-09-22 1178 591700 27530 37400 126000 445700 142500 117900 273800 199100 36970 196700 86830 62350 677000 13240 7519 19510 68170 7428 8477 24160 711 6448 2687 24700 14790 5916 8370 13630 18480 10250 993 21920 8026 10950 9417 1895 15890 27200 4711 6931 54700 21690 8612 3678 28950 11870 14340 62420 1891 12320 7305 8730 3442 948
2021-09-23 1185 592200 27550 37420 126000 446000 143000 118100 274400 199100 37110 197500 87050 62590 678900 13290 7540 19540 68300 7437 8485 24290 716 6450 2695 24730 14820 5922 8402 13670 18490 10260 996 21930 8038 10960 9478 1898 15970 27210 4719 6958 54730 21730 8618 3694 28990 11910 14390 62710 1896 12340 7351 8742 3454 952
2021-09-24 1192 592700 27580 37440 126100 446300 143500 118400 274700 199100 37240 198200 87260 62830 680100 13330 7560 19570 68430 7453 8490 24380 721 6453 2711 24760 14840 5962 8427 13720 18500 10280 999 21970 8048 10980 9521 1903 16040 27220 4729 6979 54760 21770 8625 3712 29020 11980 14430 63010 1902 12350 7403 8753 3463 953

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths