COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-11-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-11-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-03 --2021-11-012021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-212021-03-262021-05-032021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-11-042021-01-202021-09-282021-10-142021-04-2112-16
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 47 215 857 38 927 6 619 82 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 436 139 6 14 11 95
Days since peak 298 352 331 375 12 249 304 302 374 327 232 194 199 227 298 347 309 214 289 9 297 46 30 206 332
Last total 142835 813076 11689 26321 26191 8816 31431 97677 2760 87673 1216 115707 16686 9840 31867 5566 132739 18728 78821 18242 52836 15082 4920 13485 950 11325
Last daily increment 157 1225 48 0 66 28 76 54 7 0 0 16 70 66 0 0 53 33 266 8 323 0 21 39 0 0
Last week 1030 9476 187 190 1117 246 409 1114 22 169 28 191 391 340 683 74 348 167 1064 39 2081 25 90 256 28 51
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-0212-2811-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-152021-06-0804-2112-042021-04-07 --04-02
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 55 207 226 15 957 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 173 101 52 105 57
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 1 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 -2 1 0 0 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-11-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-132021-04-062021-01-162021-10-072021-06-252021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-06-012021-04-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-042021-01-152021-09-242021-09-212021-10-102021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-09-272021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-09-212021-04-032021-09-2712-1012-162021-10-272021-06-012021-09-1508-202021-05-272021-10-0612-072021-03-092021-09-082021-09-062021-10-182021-09-2012-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-09-222021-01-142021-09-252021-10-20 --2021-01-132021-09-242021-08-042021-09-202021-10-132021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-07-282021-10-042021-10-05
Peak daily increment 15 2996 147 166 654 6246 1725 630 3098 813 220 390 271 3302 34 118 120 154 682 151 51 5 115 178 138 7 54 25 148 100 48 231 66 106 480 13 126 114 74 48 18 76 27 25 25 1566 94 23 191 84 586 211 70 4 66 856 9 326 2 80 68 28 11
Days since peak 31 221 301 37 141 156 105 79 165 216 84 115 70 302 50 53 34 302 262 339 47 283 106 296 292 53 224 47 338 332 17 165 59 450 170 38 341 249 66 68 26 54 339 345 533 506 171 52 303 49 24 304 50 101 54 31 141 255 315 319 108 40 39
Last total 1882 611222 29376 37951 127766 463530 143644 128042 290872 200605 45272 249415 89746 73342 762972 830 15981 8562 21651 73105 8620 8804 1194 2141 36973 28775 966 7166 3745 26077 16518 6621 10214 14685 19146 10995 1230 24124 8996 11987 10187 2479 18411 1815 2230 1618 28169 5169 7807 56591 25638 10879 4750 32355 13983 2281 16394 72760 2193 14321 393 8930 9679 4610 1298
Last daily increment 5 731 14 15 45 285 16 124 242 32 237 1212 277 215 452 0 47 2 51 91 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 0 0 4 0 0 0 11 0 0 17 0 0 15 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 55 1775 173 89 233 2473 99 743 1138 175 842 7174 414 1215 7982 90 147 65 242 580 213 19 1 22 0 352 14 97 99 129 182 123 275 70 72 66 23 331 168 123 39 64 160 24 0 25 84 56 95 207 15 0 188 458 142 14 153 803 33 196 9 136 137 92 55
Previous peak date09-0307-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-2704-142021-04-152021-02-0209-1507-2108-0704-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-032021-01-2612-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1811-1604-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-112021-05-182021-01-142021-02-032021-02-02 --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1812-162021-04-0712-1505-052021-02-0112-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-03-1209-02
Previous peak daily increment 35 1065 186 785 389 1662 310 473 1724 918 223 566 354 2232 14 134 124 78 134 72 105 11 13 175 354 48 313 19 112 99 209 353 155 459 56 21 137 63 71 45 27 96 40 317 31 41 3552 194 1325 23 135 94 23 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 128 27
Low between peaks 0 371 3 7 96 92 131 71 175 95 84 43 33 522 0 3 -157 6 44 2 0 0 -1 45 32 0 6 1 15 8 1 7 4 -1 5 0 6 8 -21 3 1 5 1 52 -85 3 7 4 -8 12 1 0 4 25 1 9 0 6 -47 -121 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-11-14 to 2021-11-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-11-13 142835 813076 11689 26321 26191 8816 31431 97677 2760 87673 1216 115707 16686 9840 31867 5566 132739 18728 78821 18242 52836 15082 4920 13485 950 11325
2021-11-14 142900 813700 11740 26340 26190 8858 31510 97680 2763 87680 1216 115700 16750 9880 31870 5566 132700 18750 78820 18250 53210 15090 4935 13520 953 11330
2021-11-15 143000 814800 11770 26350 26450 8900 31580 97730 2763 87730 1227 115700 16790 9910 31930 5567 132800 18770 78820 18250 53770 15090 4948 13540 956 11330
2021-11-16 143200 816300 11810 26360 26560 8941 31660 97910 2763 87750 1232 115800 16840 9940 31930 5567 132800 18800 78820 18250 54230 15100 4962 13570 961 11350
2021-11-17 143400 817800 11850 26380 26710 8981 31720 98080 2763 87810 1234 115800 16890 9980 31930 5680 132900 18820 78940 18260 54650 15110 4975 13600 974 11350
2021-11-18 143600 818800 11890 26390 26850 9021 31780 98190 2765 87840 1238 115800 16950 10020 31970 5680 132900 18830 79160 18260 55050 15110 4989 13630 984 11350
2021-11-19 143700 820100 11930 26410 27030 9061 31830 98390 2767 87860 1239 115900 17000 10060 31990 5680 133000 18860 79230 18270 55430 15120 5003 13660 989 11370
2021-11-20 143900 821100 11970 26430 27070 9101 31900 98430 2770 87870 1239 115900 17060 10100 32020 5680 133000 18890 79440 18270 55800 15120 5017 13690 989 11370

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-11-14 to 2021-11-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-11-13 1882 611222 29376 37951 127766 463530 143644 128042 290872 200605 45272 249415 89746 73342 762972 830 15981 8562 21651 73105 8620 2141 28775 7166 3745 26077 16518 6621 10214 14685 19146 10995 1230 24124 8996 11987 10187 2479 18411 1815 1618 28169 5169 7807 56591 4750 32355 13983 16394 72760 2193 14321 8930 9679 4610 1298
2021-11-14 1893 611400 29390 37960 127800 463900 143700 128200 291200 200600 45450 250600 89930 73540 763500 832 16020 8576 21670 73110 8620 2141 28830 7185 3752 26090 16520 6634 10210 14690 19160 11010 1234 24140 8996 11990 10200 2481 18450 1820 1620 28180 5172 7809 56620 4750 32390 14000 16410 72850 2194 14330 8945 9682 4627 1298
2021-11-15 1914 611500 29450 37980 127800 464500 143700 128400 291300 200700 45630 251700 90070 73760 765000 853 16020 8595 21680 73240 8693 2146 28900 7185 3788 26150 16550 6666 10280 14700 19170 11020 1235 24200 9020 11990 10220 2499 18530 1823 1623 28200 5185 7848 56660 4777 32410 14070 16420 72930 2207 14410 8982 9712 4665 1298
2021-11-16 1930 611700 29480 37980 127800 465000 143700 128500 291700 200700 45810 252900 90220 73960 766400 870 16070 8612 21750 73320 8711 2150 29030 7185 3799 26170 16610 6668 10300 14730 19190 11030 1244 24200 9038 12060 10250 2519 18560 1832 1633 28220 5195 7867 56690 4799 32480 14080 16510 73060 2213 14450 9019 9742 4690 1340
2021-11-17 1944 612000 29510 38000 127900 465400 143800 128700 291900 200700 45970 254000 90370 74160 768100 873 16100 8627 21810 73470 8730 2153 29130 7288 3822 26200 16640 6732 10330 14740 19200 11050 1250 24370 9074 12090 10250 2533 18600 1838 1637 28240 5208 7883 56730 4850 32660 14110 16540 73140 2220 14480 9030 9776 4717 1345
2021-11-18 1957 612300 29520 38020 127900 465800 143800 128800 292300 200700 46140 255200 90500 74350 768900 883 16130 8642 21830 73560 8758 2157 29150 7288 3829 26210 16650 6732 10340 14750 19210 11070 1253 24370 9108 12090 10250 2536 18610 1842 1639 28250 5211 7888 56760 4862 32720 14120 16550 73370 2221 14510 9039 9791 4744 1345
2021-11-19 1968 612600 29560 38040 127900 466200 143800 128900 292500 200800 46300 256300 90640 74540 771100 886 16140 8656 21880 73620 8793 2160 29240 7288 3852 26240 16700 6744 10420 14770 19220 11080 1253 24460 9133 12090 10260 2555 18650 1843 1643 28260 5228 7898 56780 4882 32760 14160 16580 73580 2229 14540 9098 9814 4744 1345
2021-11-20 1979 613100 29570 38060 128000 466600 143800 129000 292800 200800 46460 257400 90760 74740 771500 886 16190 8670 21930 73670 8793 2164 29240 7288 3860 26240 16700 6744 10420 14770 19230 11090 1262 24460 9133 12090 10260 2557 18650 1851 1643 28280 5228 7899 56810 4882 32820 14160 16580 73670 2229 14540 9103 9814 4744 1345

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-11-14 to 2021-11-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-11-13 142835 813076 11689 26321 26191 8816 31431 97677 2760 87673 1216 115707 16686 9840 31867 5566 132739 18728 78821 18242 52836 15082 4920 13485 950 11325
2021-11-14 142900 814100 11720 26330 26290 8852 31490 97740 2764 87680 1217 115700 16740 9900 31900 5570 132800 18750 78940 18250 53120 15080 4935 13520 951 11330
2021-11-15 143000 815500 11740 26360 26510 8892 31530 97830 2766 87720 1223 115800 16790 9940 32000 5574 132800 18770 79020 18250 53470 15080 4947 13550 952 11330
2021-11-16 143200 817000 11760 26360 26640 8934 31580 98020 2768 87740 1228 115800 16840 9990 32060 5578 132900 18800 79120 18260 53880 15090 4959 13590 953 11340
2021-11-17 143400 818600 11780 26390 26790 8977 31620 98200 2771 87780 1230 115800 16890 10030 32120 5628 132900 18820 79240 18260 54230 15100 4971 13620 962 11350
2021-11-18 143600 819800 11800 26400 26940 9024 31650 98320 2773 87800 1234 115900 16940 10080 32200 5633 133000 18840 79380 18270 54580 15110 4983 13650 966 11350
2021-11-19 143700 821200 11820 26420 27080 9066 31690 98450 2776 87830 1236 115900 16990 10130 32300 5638 133000 18860 79510 18270 54930 15110 4995 13690 968 11360
2021-11-20 143900 822500 11850 26430 27180 9112 31730 98500 2779 87840 1238 115900 17050 10170 32380 5643 133000 18890 79650 18280 55290 15110 5008 13720 969 11370

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-11-14 to 2021-11-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-11-13 1882 611222 29376 37951 127766 463530 143644 128042 290872 200605 45272 249415 89746 73342 762972 830 15981 8562 21651 73105 8620 2141 28775 7166 3745 26077 16518 6621 10214 14685 19146 10995 1230 24124 8996 11987 10187 2479 18411 1815 1618 28169 5169 7807 56591 4750 32355 13983 16394 72760 2193 14321 8930 9679 4610 1298
2021-11-14 1891 611400 29390 37970 127800 463900 143700 128100 290900 200600 45470 250600 89860 73550 763200 832 16000 8571 21670 73130 8630 2144 28800 7170 3752 26090 16530 6624 10240 14690 19160 11000 1233 24150 8997 11990 10190 2482 18420 1817 1617 28170 5173 7808 56620 4757 32380 14000 16400 72820 2195 14340 8935 9679 4616 1299
2021-11-15 1904 611600 29440 37980 127800 464300 143700 128200 290900 200700 45630 251600 89920 73750 764300 844 16010 8583 21680 73230 8683 2146 28860 7176 3777 26120 16550 6648 10280 14700 19170 11010 1236 24200 9019 12000 10200 2495 18480 1820 1618 28180 5181 7842 56650 4778 32420 14040 16420 72870 2204 14380 8954 9697 4640 1302
2021-11-16 1916 611700 29470 37980 127900 464700 143700 128300 291200 200700 45790 252700 89980 73940 765200 857 16040 8593 21730 73310 8706 2148 28970 7183 3788 26150 16600 6655 10310 14720 19180 11020 1242 24220 9038 12050 10230 2510 18510 1825 1626 28190 5190 7859 56680 4803 32490 14050 16470 72960 2209 14400 8979 9719 4657 1337
2021-11-17 1927 612000 29500 37990 127900 465100 143700 128400 291300 200700 45950 253800 90050 74130 766200 861 16070 8603 21770 73450 8729 2149 29050 7252 3805 26170 16630 6700 10330 14730 19190 11030 1247 24330 9075 12070 10230 2522 18540 1830 1629 28200 5199 7874 56720 4846 32620 14080 16490 73000 2215 14430 8984 9744 4676 1344
2021-11-18 1938 612200 29520 38000 127900 465400 143700 128400 291700 200700 46100 254800 90110 74320 766800 867 16090 8612 21790 73530 8756 2151 29100 7257 3818 26190 16660 6708 10350 14740 19200 11050 1251 24350 9110 12070 10240 2528 18560 1833 1631 28200 5207 7882 56750 4864 32690 14100 16510 73180 2218 14450 8998 9756 4696 1348
2021-11-19 1948 612400 29550 38010 127900 465800 143800 128500 291900 200800 46250 255900 90170 74510 768100 873 16110 8621 21830 73600 8788 2155 29190 7261 3836 26210 16700 6727 10400 14750 19210 11060 1255 24420 9137 12080 10250 2542 18610 1837 1636 28210 5217 7894 56780 4882 32740 14130 16540 73320 2223 14480 9042 9770 4705 1350
2021-11-20 1959 612700 29560 38030 128000 466200 143800 128600 292300 200800 46400 257000 90220 74710 768300 877 16150 8630 21870 73620 8800 2158 29220 7267 3844 26220 16700 6736 10410 14760 19220 11070 1260 24440 9137 12090 10250 2546 18620 1841 1637 28220 5221 7898 56810 4895 32800 14140 16550 73380 2226 14490 9045 9771 4710 1352

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths