COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-11-19


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-11-19

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-03 --2021-11-012021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-212021-03-262021-05-032021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-10-272021-01-202021-09-282021-10-17 --12-16
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 46 215 857 38 927 6 619 82 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 428 139 6 14 95
Days since peak 304 358 337 381 18 255 310 308 380 333 238 200 205 233 304 353 315 220 295 23 303 52 33 338
Last total 143716 823336 11951 26568 27124 9046 31879 98993 2797 87810 1249 115994 17168 10178 32780 5609 133082 18900 80399 18300 54624 15110 5022 13781 999 11377
Last daily increment 157 1839 48 42 139 30 110 242 5 6 3 47 93 65 135 0 48 37 405 5 281 1 21 56 3 13
Last week 881 10260 262 247 933 230 448 1316 37 137 33 287 482 338 913 43 343 172 1578 58 1788 28 102 296 49 52
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-0212-2811-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-152021-06-0804-2112-042021-04-07 --04-02
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 55 207 226 15 957 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 173 101 52 105 57
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 1 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 23 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 -2 1 0 0 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-11-19

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-202021-04-062021-01-162021-10-072021-06-252021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-06-012021-04-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-042021-01-152021-09-242021-09-212021-10-102021-01-152021-10-1912-092021-09-272021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-09-212021-04-032021-09-2712-1012-162021-08-202021-06-012021-09-1508-202021-05-272021-10-0612-072021-03-092021-09-212021-09-062021-10-182021-09-2012-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-09-222021-01-14 --2021-10-20 --2021-01-132021-09-242021-08-042021-09-202021-10-132021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-07-282021-10-042021-11-03
Peak daily increment 15 2996 147 166 654 6246 1725 630 3098 813 220 390 271 3302 34 118 120 154 148 151 51 5 115 178 138 7 54 25 148 100 41 231 66 106 480 13 126 114 66 48 20 76 27 25 25 1566 94 23 191 564 211 70 4 66 878 9 326 2 80 68 28 15
Days since peak 30 227 307 43 147 162 111 85 171 222 90 121 76 308 56 59 40 308 31 345 53 289 112 302 298 59 230 53 344 338 91 171 65 456 176 44 347 255 59 74 32 60 345 351 539 512 177 58 309 30 310 56 107 60 37 147 261 321 325 114 46 16
Last total 1938 612370 29533 38079 128013 465349 143714 128734 291929 200801 46698 256669 89562 74646 770691 861 16063 8608 21886 73693 8878 8847 1196 2154 36973 29047 987 7268 3845 26227 16673 6636 10606 14749 19255 11068 1268 24653 9155 12130 10229 2547 18597 1850 2230 1656 28243 5263 7917 56806 26058 10879 4914 32825 14096 2305 16553 73276 2244 14492 401 9106 9816 4726 1347
Last daily increment 5 226 17 30 50 267 5 100 0 34 276 1221 47 218 1996 20 20 9 78 141 44 15 0 0 0 59 6 0 19 37 26 -3 212 14 24 16 14 155 30 11 7 7 35 12 0 6 13 25 19 44 250 0 28 96 18 2 34 100 13 23 0 24 16 9 0
Last week 56 1148 157 128 247 1819 70 692 1057 196 1426 7254 -184 1304 7549 31 82 46 235 588 258 43 2 13 0 272 21 102 100 150 155 15 392 64 109 73 38 529 159 143 42 68 186 35 0 38 74 94 110 215 250 0 164 470 113 24 159 516 51 171 8 176 137 116 49
Previous peak date09-0307-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-2704-142021-04-152021-02-0209-1507-212021-02-2404-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-032021-01-2612-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1811-1604-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-1112-152021-01-142021-02-032021-02-02 --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1812-172021-04-0712-1605-052021-02-0112-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-03-1209-02
Previous peak daily increment 35 1065 186 785 389 1662 310 473 1724 918 223 566 354 2232 14 134 124 78 682 72 105 11 13 175 354 48 313 19 112 99 208 353 155 459 56 21 137 63 61 45 27 96 40 317 31 41 3552 194 1325 26 135 94 23 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 128 27
Low between peaks 0 371 3 7 96 92 131 71 175 95 84 43 33 522 0 3 -157 6 -266 2 0 0 -1 45 32 0 6 1 15 8 1 7 4 -1 5 0 6 8 -21 3 1 5 1 52 -85 3 7 -8 12 1 0 4 25 1 9 0 6 -47 -121 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-11-20 to 2021-11-26

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-11-19 143716 823336 11951 26568 27124 9046 31879 98993 2797 87810 1249 115994 17168 10178 32780 5609 133082 18900 80399 18300 54624 15110 5022 13781 999 11377
2021-11-20 143900 824600 11990 26570 27240 9086 31970 98990 2801 87830 1249 116000 17250 10240 32780 5659 133100 18910 80750 18310 54950 15110 5037 13840 1010 11380
2021-11-21 144000 825500 12010 26570 27320 9141 32030 98990 2801 87840 1249 116000 17320 10290 32780 5664 133200 18910 80910 18310 55520 15110 5037 13890 1013 11380
2021-11-22 144000 827100 12040 26610 27610 9188 32090 99100 2801 87880 1261 116000 17390 10350 32920 5668 133200 18910 81050 18310 55980 15110 5042 13940 1018 11390
2021-11-23 144300 829000 12070 26630 27730 9231 32180 99330 2802 87920 1264 116100 17460 10410 33010 5672 133300 18940 81260 18320 56360 15130 5051 13990 1025 11400
2021-11-24 144500 831100 12110 26660 27880 9272 32250 99520 2805 87960 1266 116100 17530 10460 33120 5708 133300 18970 81500 18320 56740 15140 5061 14040 1042 11400
2021-11-25 144700 833000 12140 26690 28030 9312 32310 99710 2808 87990 1274 116200 17610 10520 33250 5712 133400 19000 81780 18330 57080 15140 5073 14090 1045 11410
2021-11-26 144800 834500 12180 26730 28170 9350 32400 99920 2812 88000 1276 116200 17680 10580 33370 5712 133400 19030 82080 18330 57410 15140 5086 14140 1045 11420

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-11-20 to 2021-11-26

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-11-19 1938 612370 29533 38079 128013 465349 143714 128734 291929 200801 46698 256669 74646 770691 861 16063 8608 21886 73693 8878 8847 29047 987 7268 3845 26227 16673 10606 14749 19255 11068 1268 24653 9155 12130 10229 2547 18597 1850 1656 28243 5263 7917 56806 26058 4914 32825 14096 2305 16553 73276 2244 14492 9106 9816 4726 1347
2021-11-20 1947 612800 29560 38080 128100 465700 143700 128900 292300 200800 46880 257900 74850 771400 866 16140 8619 21920 73710 8878 8847 29110 994 7268 3852 26230 16700 10610 14760 19270 11080 1269 24650 9161 12150 10240 2552 18610 1852 1657 28260 5263 7917 56840 26180 4939 32860 14120 2305 16560 73470 2244 14520 9111 9822 4728 1347
2021-11-21 1964 612900 29560 38100 128100 466200 143700 129000 292600 200800 46940 259000 75040 771600 867 16150 8645 21920 73710 8878 8847 29130 1000 7272 3854 26240 16700 10630 14760 19270 11090 1269 24650 9161 12150 10240 2552 18610 1852 1658 28270 5263 7917 56870 26330 4972 32890 14130 2306 16570 73520 2244 14520 9111 9822 4728 1358
2021-11-22 1977 613000 29620 38120 128100 466600 143800 129200 292600 200900 47060 260200 75220 772900 875 16160 8664 21920 73820 8944 8855 29170 1000 7272 3869 26280 16730 10740 14770 19280 11090 1269 24700 9168 12150 10260 2564 18660 1852 1664 28280 5274 7949 56900 26490 4999 32890 14180 2312 16570 73570 2254 14600 9156 9848 4757 1362
2021-11-23 1988 613200 29640 38120 128100 467000 143800 129300 292800 200900 47210 261300 75410 774200 883 16190 8679 21990 73880 8980 8859 29230 1000 7277 3892 26300 16770 10820 14780 19290 11110 1279 24700 9207 12220 10280 2585 18680 1857 1673 28300 5284 7971 56930 26630 5022 32970 14190 2317 16640 73650 2263 14630 9188 9881 4790 1414
2021-11-24 1999 613500 29670 38140 128200 467400 143800 129400 293100 200900 47360 262400 75600 775700 887 16220 8693 22030 74000 8998 8864 29340 1007 7400 3909 26330 16800 10890 14800 19300 11130 1280 24910 9247 12220 10280 2595 18730 1863 1680 28320 5294 7982 56950 26780 5043 33120 14210 2320 16680 73760 2268 14650 9206 9914 4811 1414
2021-11-25 2008 613700 29690 38170 128200 467700 143800 129600 293500 200900 47530 263600 75790 776800 888 16250 8706 22060 74120 9043 8867 29380 1013 7400 3927 26350 16830 10960 14810 19310 11140 1288 24910 9282 12220 10280 2607 18760 1868 1687 28320 5311 7994 56980 26930 5063 33200 14220 2325 16680 73920 2275 14680 9230 9934 4832 1414
2021-11-26 2018 613900 29710 38190 128200 468100 143800 129700 293600 201000 47700 264700 75990 778800 899 16270 8718 22140 74240 9076 8877 29450 1018 7440 3948 26380 16860 10960 14830 19320 11150 1297 25030 9307 12220 10290 2618 18790 1875 1691 28340 5331 8007 57010 27070 5082 33270 14240 2328 16710 74030 2286 14700 9266 9947 4834 1422

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-11-20 to 2021-11-26

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-11-19 143716 823336 11951 26568 27124 9046 31879 98993 2797 87810 1249 115994 17168 10178 32780 5609 133082 18900 80399 18300 54624 15110 5022 13781 999 11377
2021-11-20 143900 824900 12000 26590 27230 9083 31950 99100 2801 87820 1252 116000 17240 10240 32880 5617 133100 18940 80740 18310 54910 15110 5038 13830 1005 11380
2021-11-21 144000 825900 12030 26590 27330 9122 32000 99100 2804 87830 1253 116100 17310 10290 32940 5627 133200 18940 80870 18310 55220 15110 5049 13870 1007 11390
2021-11-22 144100 827400 12060 26630 27540 9163 32050 99300 2806 87860 1260 116100 17380 10340 33070 5638 133200 18960 81000 18320 55480 15110 5061 13910 1011 11400
2021-11-23 144300 829100 12100 26650 27670 9203 32120 99600 2810 87880 1263 116200 17450 10390 33180 5648 133300 18990 81200 18320 55770 15120 5073 13960 1014 11400
2021-11-24 144400 830800 12140 26680 27820 9243 32170 99800 2814 87920 1265 116200 17510 10450 33290 5664 133300 19020 81420 18330 56070 15130 5087 14000 1026 11410
2021-11-25 144600 832200 12170 26700 27970 9284 32220 99900 2819 87940 1270 116200 17580 10500 33390 5677 133400 19040 81600 18340 56360 15130 5100 14040 1028 11410
2021-11-26 144700 833600 12210 26730 28130 9321 32270 100100 2823 87960 1272 116200 17650 10560 33470 5688 133400 19060 81780 18350 56610 15140 5114 14090 1030 11420

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-11-20 to 2021-11-26

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-11-19 1938 612370 29533 38079 128013 465349 143714 128734 291929 200801 46698 256669 74646 770691 861 16063 8608 21886 73693 8878 8847 29047 987 7268 3845 26227 16673 10606 14749 19255 11068 1268 24653 9155 12130 10229 2547 18597 1850 1656 28243 5263 7917 56806 26058 4914 32825 14096 2305 16553 73276 2244 14492 9106 9816 4726 1347
2021-11-20 1947 612800 29540 38100 128100 465700 143700 128800 292200 200800 46910 257800 74850 771200 867 16090 8617 21940 73760 8897 8852 29070 991 7272 3856 26240 16680 10660 14760 19270 11080 1276 24710 9158 12150 10230 2549 18610 1858 1658 28250 5274 7924 56840 26150 4927 32900 14100 2306 16560 73330 2249 14510 9109 9817 4732 1349
2021-11-21 1956 612900 29550 38110 128100 466000 143700 128900 292400 200900 47030 258900 75040 771300 872 16100 8629 21950 73770 8909 8853 29080 995 7278 3859 26250 16680 10680 14760 19280 11090 1277 24740 9161 12160 10230 2549 18610 1859 1658 28260 5277 7927 56870 26190 4941 32940 14110 2307 16570 73350 2251 14520 9109 9817 4735 1356
2021-11-22 1965 613000 29600 38120 128100 466300 143700 129000 292400 200900 47180 260000 75220 772100 878 16110 8638 21960 73880 8959 8859 29100 996 7288 3870 26280 16700 10730 14770 19290 11090 1278 24800 9168 12170 10240 2556 18650 1860 1663 28260 5288 7956 56900 26220 4974 32960 14140 2310 16580 73390 2258 14560 9136 9829 4752 1361
2021-11-23 1974 613200 29620 38130 128100 466600 143800 129000 292500 200900 47340 261100 75410 772800 885 16130 8646 22010 73940 8995 8863 29140 997 7297 3886 26300 16750 10770 14780 19300 11110 1283 24840 9207 12220 10260 2572 18660 1864 1670 28270 5298 7979 56930 26260 5004 33030 14150 2313 16620 73450 2265 14580 9162 9851 4774 1394
2021-11-24 1982 613400 29640 38140 128200 467000 143800 129100 292800 200900 47500 262200 75600 773700 892 16150 8653 22040 74060 9019 8867 29220 1002 7369 3899 26320 16780 10800 14790 19310 11120 1286 24990 9249 12240 10260 2581 18700 1868 1675 28280 5307 7991 56960 26290 5042 33150 14170 2315 16640 73510 2270 14600 9170 9876 4788 1398
2021-11-25 1991 613600 29660 38150 128200 467300 143800 129100 293200 201000 47670 263300 75790 774300 896 16170 8660 22070 74160 9053 8870 29250 1006 7373 3910 26340 16800 10840 14800 19320 11140 1290 25010 9287 12250 10270 2587 18720 1871 1679 28280 5317 8002 56990 26330 5059 33230 14180 2317 16650 73640 2274 14620 9180 9888 4802 1400
2021-11-26 1999 613800 29690 38170 128200 467600 143800 129200 293300 201000 47830 264400 75990 775500 902 16190 8666 22110 74240 9086 8874 29320 1011 7382 3924 26370 16850 10880 14810 19330 11150 1294 25060 9315 12270 10270 2600 18750 1873 1682 28290 5329 8012 57020 26360 5085 33280 14210 2319 16680 73780 2280 14640 9211 9901 4806 1404

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths