COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-12-16


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-12-16

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-262021-12-0311-042021-11-082021-11-012021-03-092021-12-072021-01-1511-042021-11-242021-03-262021-12-072021-11-292021-12-062021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-10-292021-01-202021-11-192021-12-07 --12-16
Peak daily increment 1258 3529 57 208 165 47 215 390 38 931 13 598 93 64 186 56 723 99 540 279 441 140 18 79 95
Days since peak 331 385 13 407 38 45 282 9 335 407 22 265 9 17 10 331 380 342 247 322 48 330 27 9 365
Last total 146937 874549 13386 27729 29933 9825 34923 107655 3051 88667 1450 118676 19651 11825 37376 5835 135301 20310 90306 18717 58019 15226 5452 15730 1202 11879
Last daily increment 146 2250 53 0 86 21 110 448 12 48 4 172 98 46 144 0 123 55 592 19 84 5 8 109 0 25
Last week 682 11618 310 225 474 157 681 2145 55 287 29 825 566 309 947 47 632 306 2378 91 488 35 68 494 66 133
Previous peak date04-1004-0412-1704-1512-0212-2811-042021-01-1304-0403-3104-2104-0711-2912-192021-04-0204-2403-2904-0411-2704-152021-06-0804-2112-042021-04-07 --04-02
Previous peak daily increment 964 3091 112 322 142 55 207 857 15 945 30 933 101 76 254 167 781 153 492 31 173 101 52 105 57
Low between peaks 7 -745 0 -105 3 1 97 -32 0 -1283 0 7 7 1 1 0 6 -6 204 3 -2 1 0 0 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-12-16

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-102021-04-062021-01-162021-10-072021-06-252021-12-052021-07-312021-08-262021-06-012021-04-142021-08-212021-11-182021-07-212021-09-042021-01-152021-10-192021-09-212021-10-102021-01-152021-10-1912-092021-09-272021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-09-222021-04-032021-09-2712-1012-162021-08-202021-06-012021-09-1508-202021-05-272021-10-0612-072021-03-092021-12-022021-09-062021-10-182021-09-2012-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-09-222021-01-142021-12-102021-10-202021-11-152021-01-132021-09-242021-08-042021-09-202021-10-132021-06-252021-03-0312-2712-292021-07-282021-10-042021-11-03
Peak daily increment 15 2995 147 165 654 2047 1726 630 2955 814 220 1212 390 271 3301 35 118 115 154 139 151 48 5 114 178 137 7 55 25 148 99 40 237 66 106 482 13 126 114 1850 48 20 76 27 25 26 1568 93 23 191 314 610 31 211 69 4 66 881 9 326 2 82 66 29 22
Days since peak 67 254 334 70 174 11 138 112 198 246 117 28 148 103 335 58 86 67 335 58 372 80 316 139 329 325 85 257 80 371 365 118 198 92 483 203 71 374 282 14 101 59 87 372 378 566 539 204 85 336 6 57 31 337 83 134 87 64 174 288 354 352 141 73 43
Last total 2134 617271 30065 38773 129295 476869 143979 130946 297188 201992 50496 288240 90262 79696 803652 888 16320 8913 23344 75603 9841 9002 1204 2231 36973 29777 1054 7680 4060 27065 17704 6709 11719 14918 19771 11209 1405 27259 10057 14860 10351 2873 19099 1973 2230 1812 28659 5516 8262 58058 27588 10879 5527 35095 14445 2430 17627 74897 2406 15055 448 9649 10610 5142 1502
Last daily increment 8 0 18 46 39 391 10 63 0 90 47 1105 36 0 1142 0 16 12 20 86 61 0 1 1 0 10 2 0 3 52 55 0 26 6 30 0 27 0 39 10 4 4 29 5 0 10 16 0 19 44 0 0 19 105 14 11 38 101 7 30 8 18 66 0 0
Last week 34 814 112 173 284 1997 56 343 1000 342 535 6669 182 918 6888 3 77 82 397 356 214 34 5 20 0 84 20 130 32 264 304 0 177 41 150 0 40 542 185 125 25 52 123 29 0 44 116 44 74 333 223 0 146 680 70 32 204 342 37 160 19 99 225 57 30
Previous peak date09-0307-2104-2907-172021-01-222021-06-102021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-2704-142021-04-152021-02-0209-1507-212021-02-2404-2404-2004-2904-2908-0711-032021-01-2612-1109-0905-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1811-1604-2504-292021-01-0804-1712-112021-09-082021-01-142021-02-032021-02-02 --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1812-162021-04-0712-1505-052021-02-0112-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-03-1209-02
Previous peak daily increment 35 1066 186 787 389 6187 308 473 1833 917 223 564 354 2247 14 134 124 78 648 72 106 11 13 175 358 47 310 20 112 99 201 350 147 459 56 21 136 63 87 46 27 96 41 321 31 42 3569 194 1341 23 135 93 23 113 459 9 105 12 59 60 129 27
Low between peaks 0 371 3 7 96 200 131 71 171 95 84 43 33 521 0 4 -157 6 -262 2 0 0 -1 45 32 0 6 1 15 8 1 8 4 -2 5 0 6 8 -42 3 1 5 1 51 -84 3 7 4 -10 2 12 1 0 4 25 1 9 0 5 -44 -116 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-17 to 2021-12-23

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-12-16 146937 874549 13386 27729 29933 9825 34923 107655 3051 88667 1450 118676 19651 11825 37376 5835 135301 20310 90306 18717 58019 15226 5452 15730 1202 11879
2021-12-17 147100 876600 13440 27810 30090 9850 35040 107900 3061 88670 1470 118700 19740 11880 37640 5841 135300 20380 90650 18730 58100 15230 5465 15820 1202 11890
2021-12-18 147200 877700 13500 27810 30160 9890 35150 107900 3070 88670 1471 118700 19820 11960 37640 5846 135400 20440 91020 18750 58120 15230 5491 15870 1202 11890
2021-12-19 147200 878300 13550 27810 30220 9920 35230 108000 3080 88670 1472 118700 19900 12030 37640 5851 135400 20460 91020 18760 58200 15230 5510 15940 1202 11890
2021-12-20 147300 880200 13600 27940 30300 9940 35320 108300 3089 88700 1492 118900 19990 12090 38090 5857 135500 20490 91020 18780 58200 15230 5526 16010 1202 11920
2021-12-21 147400 882500 13660 27990 30480 9970 35440 108700 3098 88740 1494 119000 20070 12140 38270 5862 135600 20550 91490 18790 58250 15230 5542 16080 1202 11940
2021-12-22 147600 884800 13710 28030 30560 9990 35550 109200 3107 88800 1498 119100 20160 12200 38430 5917 135700 20600 92100 18810 58270 15250 5556 16160 1229 11970
2021-12-23 147700 886900 13760 28040 30640 10020 35650 109700 3116 88840 1503 119200 20250 12250 38580 5917 135800 20650 92650 18820 58350 15250 5569 16240 1229 11990

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-17 to 2021-12-23

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-12-16 2134 617271 30065 38773 129295 476869 143979 130946 297188 201992 50496 288240 90262 79696 803652 16320 8913 23344 75603 9841 9002 2231 29777 1054 7680 4060 27065 17704 11719 14918 19771 1405 27259 10057 14860 10351 2873 19099 1973 1812 28659 5516 8262 58058 27588 5527 35095 14445 2430 17627 74897 2406 15055 9649 10610 5142 1502
2021-12-17 2141 617600 30090 38790 129300 477400 144000 131000 297600 202000 50600 289300 90280 79740 805400 16330 8924 23360 75720 9880 9017 2234 29850 1055 7680 4079 27070 17720 11800 14920 19790 1405 27480 10120 14900 10360 2901 19120 1977 1815 28660 5533 8283 58110 27600 5543 35100 14470 2433 17710 74960 2414 15060 9688 10610 5189 1502
2021-12-18 2149 617800 30100 38830 129400 478100 144000 131100 297700 202000 50860 290300 90310 79820 805700 16330 8934 23410 75750 9880 9017 2235 29870 1059 7680 4081 27070 17720 11800 14920 19790 1405 27480 10120 14900 10360 2904 19130 1980 1815 28680 5535 8283 58120 27600 5543 35170 14470 2433 17720 74990 2414 15060 9691 10610 5192 1511
2021-12-19 2156 617800 30100 38870 129400 478700 144000 131200 298000 202000 51040 291400 90330 79890 805800 16330 8945 23410 75760 9880 9017 2238 29880 1062 7680 4081 27070 17720 11800 14920 19790 1405 27480 10120 14900 10360 2906 19130 1980 1815 28680 5537 8283 58150 27600 5543 35190 14470 2433 17720 75010 2414 15060 9692 10610 5192 1514
2021-12-20 2163 617900 30130 38900 129500 479200 144000 131200 298100 202100 51190 292400 90350 79950 807100 16330 8956 23410 75880 9900 9017 2240 29930 1062 7680 4088 27120 17730 11920 14930 19810 1405 27540 10160 14900 10360 2919 19170 1980 1815 28690 5553 8290 58180 27600 5578 35190 14490 2439 17770 75050 2426 15060 9722 10610 5215 1514
2021-12-21 2169 618200 30150 38910 129500 479700 144000 131300 298100 202100 51320 293400 90380 80010 808600 16340 8968 23560 75930 9970 9037 2243 29960 1062 7680 4104 27140 17810 11950 14930 19820 1413 27540 10190 14940 10370 2940 19190 1994 1832 28710 5562 8311 58210 27600 5619 35280 14500 2442 17830 75130 2433 15060 9750 10650 5228 1549
2021-12-22 2176 618400 30180 38920 129600 480200 144000 131400 298500 202100 51440 294400 90420 80060 810700 16350 8979 23620 76020 10010 9040 2245 29990 1066 7732 4112 27200 17890 11980 14960 19840 1417 27910 10250 14990 10380 2956 19230 2001 1839 28740 5582 8329 58250 27600 5654 35470 14520 2452 17900 75220 2442 15080 9774 10720 5251 1549
2021-12-23 2183 618500 30200 38970 129600 480600 144000 131400 298700 202200 51540 295400 90460 80120 812000 16360 8991 23650 76100 10060 9040 2248 30010 1067 7732 4115 27240 17930 12000 14960 19850 1435 27910 10290 15080 10380 2961 19260 2006 1845 28750 5587 8343 58290 27600 5672 35560 14530 2460 17930 75320 2447 15110 9800 10770 5257 1569

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-17 to 2021-12-23

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-12-16 146937 874549 13386 27729 29933 9825 34923 107655 3051 88667 1450 118676 19651 11825 37376 5835 135301 20310 90306 18717 58019 15226 5452 15730 1202 11879
2021-12-17 147100 876800 13440 27760 30020 9847 35030 108100 3061 88710 1457 118800 19740 11880 37540 5842 135400 20380 90820 18730 58090 15230 5464 15820 1212 11900
2021-12-18 147200 878300 13500 27760 30080 9873 35130 108200 3071 88730 1461 118900 19830 11940 37630 5847 135500 20440 91220 18750 58130 15230 5481 15890 1219 11920
2021-12-19 147200 879500 13550 27760 30140 9897 35200 108300 3080 88750 1464 119000 19910 11990 37720 5853 135500 20470 91410 18770 58200 15230 5496 15960 1224 11930
2021-12-20 147300 881400 13600 27850 30200 9924 35280 108700 3090 88790 1476 119200 20000 12040 38020 5858 135600 20500 91600 18780 58220 15240 5510 16030 1234 11960
2021-12-21 147400 883600 13650 27890 30320 9948 35370 109100 3099 88830 1480 119300 20090 12100 38200 5863 135700 20560 92000 18800 58300 15240 5523 16100 1238 11980
2021-12-22 147500 885600 13700 27920 30410 9970 35460 109500 3108 88870 1487 119400 20180 12150 38370 5886 135800 20610 92450 18810 58340 15250 5537 16170 1248 12000
2021-12-23 147700 887600 13760 27960 30490 9992 35540 110000 3117 88900 1494 119500 20270 12210 38560 5891 135900 20670 92870 18830 58400 15250 5550 16240 1265 12020

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-17 to 2021-12-23

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-12-16 2134 617271 30065 38773 129295 476869 143979 130946 297188 201992 50496 288240 90262 79696 803652 16320 8913 23344 75603 9841 9002 2231 29777 1054 7680 4060 27065 17704 11719 14918 19771 1405 27259 10057 14860 10351 2873 19099 1973 1812 28659 5516 8262 58058 27588 5527 35095 14445 2430 17627 74897 2406 15055 9649 10610 5142 1502
2021-12-17 2142 617400 30090 38790 129300 477300 144000 131000 297300 202000 50600 289300 90290 79810 805100 16340 8927 23400 75670 9890 9013 2234 29790 1057 7723 4072 27100 17760 11760 14930 19790 1415 27400 10110 14870 10360 2891 19120 1976 1818 28670 5525 8290 58110 27620 5550 35210 14460 2436 17680 74970 2412 15080 9660 10640 5158 1506
2021-12-18 2149 617500 30090 38810 129400 477800 144000 131000 297400 202100 50740 290400 90310 79980 805300 16350 8940 23460 75690 9900 9016 2236 29800 1060 7725 4074 27110 17760 11780 14930 19810 1417 27450 10120 14890 10360 2894 19120 1979 1818 28680 5530 8294 58140 27660 5556 35310 14470 2438 17720 74990 2415 15090 9663 10650 5165 1512
2021-12-19 2156 617600 30090 38830 129400 478200 144000 131100 297600 202100 50870 291400 90330 80130 805400 16350 8952 23490 75690 9920 9019 2237 29810 1063 7727 4075 27120 17760 11800 14930 19820 1419 27500 10120 14910 10360 2897 19120 1980 1818 28680 5534 8297 58180 27690 5563 35370 14470 2440 17750 75010 2417 15090 9665 10660 5171 1517
2021-12-20 2162 617700 30120 38850 129400 478500 144000 131100 297700 202200 50980 292400 90350 80290 806200 16350 8963 23510 75800 9950 9022 2239 29840 1064 7729 4079 27180 17800 11880 14940 19840 1420 27600 10150 14930 10360 2906 19150 1982 1820 28690 5545 8310 58210 27720 5589 35410 14490 2446 17800 75040 2425 15120 9680 10660 5189 1520
2021-12-21 2169 617900 30140 38860 129500 478900 144000 131100 297700 202200 51090 293400 90370 80440 807100 16360 8974 23610 75850 10000 9035 2240 29870 1065 7733 4090 27220 17890 11920 14950 19860 1426 27660 10190 14990 10370 2925 19170 1990 1833 28700 5553 8333 58250 27760 5616 35510 14500 2449 17860 75090 2431 15130 9700 10690 5203 1544
2021-12-22 2176 618100 30170 38870 129500 479300 144000 131200 298100 202200 51200 294500 90400 80600 808300 16370 8985 23650 75950 10040 9040 2242 29900 1067 7763 4097 27250 17960 11960 14960 19880 1431 27870 10250 15050 10380 2939 19200 1995 1841 28710 5566 8350 58290 27790 5635 35630 14520 2455 17920 75160 2437 15150 9719 10760 5223 1549
2021-12-23 2182 618200 30190 38900 129600 479600 144000 131200 298500 202300 51300 295500 90420 80750 809200 16370 8995 23690 76030 10080 9043 2244 29930 1069 7767 4102 27300 18000 12000 14960 19900 1435 27930 10290 15110 10380 2946 19220 1999 1844 28710 5575 8363 58340 27820 5654 35720 14530 2460 17960 75220 2441 15170 9750 10790 5241 1553

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths