COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-01-18


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-01-18

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-12-092021-12-032021-12-182021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-072021-12-21 --2021-11-24 --2021-12-062021-11-282021-12-062021-01-19 --2021-12-092021-12-21 --2021-10-29 --2021-11-222021-12-182022-01-132021-12-13
Peak daily increment 2025 58 52 165 47 314 388 38 15 94 65 190 56 58 444 440 18 91 15 24
Days since peak 40 46 31 71 78 24 42 28 55 43 51 43 364 40 28 81 57 31 5 36
Last total 152513 931159 13942 28695 32338 10608 36910 116085 3519 91277 1724 125029 22197 13212 40601 6035 141825 21158 102686 19380 59327 15558 5715 17398 1383 12529
Last daily increment 438 2422 20 34 91 26 36 239 14 284 0 375 110 55 94 0 434 0 377 46 70 45 10 46 1 14
Last week 1506 10180 60 129 500 112 145 1029 86 769 36 1315 560 229 518 0 1953 44 1748 199 213 96 37 317 11 102
Previous peak date -- --2021-06-24 --2021-07-05 --2021-06-082021-06-072021-06-062021-08-252021-06-102021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --04-242021-06-08 --2021-06-082021-08-072021-06-292021-06-222021-06-122021-06-062021-11-172021-06-08
Previous peak daily increment 4 29 10 98 1 116 1 89 10 167 66 59 14 147 16 2 8 12 3
Low between peaks 0 3 -1 -30 0 0 1 0 1 -2 0 0 -2 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-01-18

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-06-15 --2021-10-072021-12-092021-12-052021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252021-12-182021-08-212021-11-222022-01-062021-09-042021-09-202021-12-172022-01-082022-01-04 --2021-10-192021-12-092022-01-07 --2022-01-07 --2021-09-202021-09-212021-04-032021-09-27 -- --2022-01-072021-11-192021-09-152022-01-142021-12-282021-12-17 --2021-12-062021-12-022022-01-112021-10-182021-09-2012-0912-032021-11-022022-01-13 --2021-09-22 --2021-12-102021-10-202021-11-15 --2021-09-242021-12-062021-12-232021-10-132022-01-052021-12-282021-12-162021-09-202021-12-082021-10-042021-11-30
Peak daily increment 2009 166 70 2269 1725 630 731 64 220 1212 451 271 2102 41 20 18 139 38 27 28 123 7 54 25 62 141 66 46 205 10 38 1905 12 20 76 27 25 15 96 23 105 591 29 70 5 1693 878 28 110 3 43 47 28 25
Days since peak 217 103 40 44 171 145 146 31 150 57 12 136 120 32 10 14 91 40 11 11 120 119 290 113 11 60 125 4 21 32 43 47 7 92 120 405 411 77 5 118 39 90 64 116 43 26 97 13 21 33 120 41 106 49
Last total 2843 621803 31863 39427 131268 487202 144183 132113 301469 203645 52962 316168 93571 85077 853958 986 16734 9452 25395 78010 10662 9559 1260 2424 62504 30813 1115 8201 4282 29350 19643 7163 12614 15195 20984 12466 1658 30504 11000 15818 10642 2957 20000 2047 2230 2059 30170 6177 8653 61993 31237 11738 5892 38655 15015 2559 20728 77362 2593 15822 499 10226 11755 5561 1601
Last daily increment 70 325 113 1 138 441 9 18 0 181 33 673 120 157 1896 0 0 15 183 75 3 10 5 0 0 30 0 0 8 251 77 0 96 58 60 58 0 0 29 24 17 12 97 0 0 6 51 32 26 331 0 0 9 36 101 0 0 141 16 8 2 34 43 26 13
Last week 321 1162 716 137 739 2167 33 141 705 452 308 4158 741 952 8566 2 93 80 403 653 110 120 20 47 0 218 16 0 22 546 324 46 159 79 163 320 35 297 113 87 53 24 237 6 0 51 433 104 70 1202 6 0 47 552 167 25 0 572 28 72 9 127 196 80 13
Previous peak date2021-10-10 --2021-10-122021-07-032021-06-242021-06-10 -- -- --2021-07-11 -- --2021-07-212021-06-08 --2021-09-242021-09-212021-10-10 --2021-08-012021-06-082021-09-272021-08-262021-07-302021-01-212021-06-082021-01-2612-112021-06-212021-09-20 --2021-10-272021-06-09 -- --2021-10-132021-10-062021-10-28 --2021-09-082021-09-062021-06-072021-06-07 --05-202021-07-13 --2021-06-13 -- --12-162021-04-072021-06-102021-06-22 --2021-08-042021-02-05 --2021-06-252021-10-1204-092021-06-232021-07-282021-06-0909-02
Previous peak daily increment 15 41 116 647 4974 548 390 86 34 118 120 62 9 51 1 115 178 26 48 313 6 38 43 11 17 13 63 74 48 2 17 40 4 3 194 1325 8 17 4 113 9 44 11 12 68 20 27
Low between peaks 7 25 -82 26 17 33 0 7 6 -266 4 3 0 2 0 6 1 4 3 -6 3 -3 4 1 2 1 0 4 -8 1 0 4 1 17 0 5 2 1 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-19 to 2022-01-25

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2022-01-18 152513 931159 13942 28695 32338 10608 36910 116085 3519 91277 1724 125029 22197 13212 40601 141825 21158 102686 19380 59327 15558 5715 17398 12529
2022-01-19 152600 932900 13960 28710 32380 10630 36950 116600 3533 91280 1751 125200 22280 13250 40680 142100 21230 103300 19410 59340 15560 5722 17440 12560
2022-01-20 152700 934600 13980 28720 32440 10650 37050 116900 3542 91280 1762 125300 22300 13280 40770 142400 21280 103900 19440 59370 15560 5731 17470 12580
2022-01-21 152800 936100 13990 28760 32510 10670 37130 117100 3553 91350 1778 125500 22350 13320 40850 142800 21320 104300 19460 59400 15560 5738 17500 12590
2022-01-22 153000 937200 14010 28760 32550 10690 37190 117200 3565 91350 1778 125600 22410 13350 40850 143100 21340 104600 19490 59430 15570 5746 17530 12590
2022-01-23 153000 937800 14010 28760 32580 10710 37250 117200 3578 91350 1779 125700 22470 13390 40870 143300 21370 104700 19520 59460 15570 5752 17570 12600
2022-01-24 153100 939400 14010 28800 32710 10730 37290 117400 3590 91520 1783 126000 22540 13420 41100 143600 21380 104700 19550 59490 15570 5759 17610 12640
2022-01-25 153400 941600 14030 28830 32790 10750 37340 117700 3604 91750 1787 126300 22610 13460 41180 144000 21390 105000 19570 59520 15600 5765 17650 12640

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-19 to 2022-01-25

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-01-18 2843 621803 31863 39427 131268 487202 144183 132113 301469 203645 52962 316168 93571 85077 853958 16734 9452 25395 78010 10662 9559 1260 2424 30813 4282 29350 19643 7163 12614 15195 20984 12466 1658 30504 11000 15818 10642 2957 20000 2059 30170 6177 8653 61993 5892 38655 15015 2559 77362 2593 15822 10226 11755 5561
2022-01-19 2927 621800 32000 39430 131400 487500 144200 132100 301600 203700 53040 316800 93780 85210 855800 16760 9467 25410 78010 10710 9582 1262 2424 30820 4304 29390 19770 7185 12650 15240 21070 12510 1677 31300 11070 15880 10660 2957 20010 2069 30230 6203 8672 62160 5920 38870 15100 2567 77430 2607 15890 10250 11780 5571
2022-01-20 2995 621800 32100 39460 131500 487500 144200 132200 301700 203800 53130 317500 93970 85340 857300 16780 9494 25410 78060 10740 9582 1262 2424 30840 4314 29470 19830 7196 12680 15270 21110 12570 1686 31450 11130 15920 10670 2957 20060 2085 30230 6233 8686 62160 5938 39020 15160 2576 77500 2614 15940 10270 11810 5588
2022-01-21 3059 622000 32240 39480 131600 487700 144200 132200 301800 203900 53210 318200 94120 85480 859000 16790 9515 25460 78180 10770 9669 1262 2430 30850 4321 29550 19910 7215 12710 15300 21170 12620 1700 31840 11150 15940 10690 2961 20090 2102 30250 6251 8696 62160 5951 39160 15210 2585 77510 2620 15980 10300 11850 5597
2022-01-22 3127 622100 32350 39490 131700 487900 144200 132200 302100 203900 53290 318800 94280 85620 859500 16800 9534 25490 78200 10770 9669 1262 2439 30850 4323 29550 19910 7222 12710 15320 21170 12670 1709 32090 11150 15960 10690 2961 20090 2104 30290 6251 8696 62180 5951 39270 15240 2585 77610 2621 15990 10300 11850 5597
2022-01-23 3177 622100 32420 39510 131800 488100 144200 132200 302100 204000 53370 319500 94400 85760 859900 16840 9552 25580 78220 10780 9669 1264 2441 30870 4323 29550 19910 7228 12720 15350 21170 12700 1709 32460 11160 15960 10690 2961 20090 2104 30330 6251 8696 62260 5951 39270 15270 2585 77680 2623 16000 10300 11850 5597
2022-01-24 3239 622300 32560 39520 131900 488300 144200 132300 302100 204100 53450 320100 94510 85900 861200 16840 9568 25600 78360 10810 9669 1265 2441 30930 4325 29600 19970 7235 12800 15370 21180 12720 1709 32690 11170 15960 10690 2961 20100 2107 30380 6252 8696 62380 5955 39280 15310 2587 77720 2626 16020 10300 11900 5612
2022-01-25 3299 622500 32670 39520 132000 488600 144200 132300 302200 204100 53530 320800 94600 86040 863100 16850 9583 25750 78410 10820 9692 1267 2443 30960 4333 29770 20050 7235 12820 15400 21250 12790 1716 32690 11190 16140 10710 2969 20170 2115 30440 6282 8723 62520 5971 39360 15370 2587 77830 2637 16030 10320 11940 5631

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-19 to 2022-01-25

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2022-01-18 152513 931159 13942 28695 32338 10608 36910 116085 3519 91277 1724 125029 22197 13212 40601 141825 21158 102686 19380 59327 15558 5715 17398 12529
2022-01-19 152900 933500 13950 28710 32430 10630 36950 116400 3533 91430 1742 125300 22280 13250 40670 142200 21170 103300 19410 59370 15580 5723 17440 12560
2022-01-20 153100 935200 13970 28720 32500 10650 37010 116700 3546 91480 1750 125500 22350 13280 40750 142400 21180 103800 19440 59400 15580 5729 17470 12580
2022-01-21 153300 936700 13980 28750 32570 10670 37060 116900 3559 91570 1766 125600 22420 13310 40810 142800 21190 104200 19460 59420 15600 5736 17510 12590
2022-01-22 153600 937900 13990 28760 32610 10690 37110 116900 3572 91580 1766 125800 22480 13350 40820 143000 21200 104500 19480 59450 15600 5742 17550 12590
2022-01-23 153700 938300 13990 28760 32650 10710 37150 116900 3585 91590 1767 125800 22550 13380 40850 143200 21210 104500 19510 59470 15610 5748 17590 12600
2022-01-24 153700 939700 14000 28800 32760 10720 37200 117100 3599 91690 1771 126100 22630 13410 41070 143500 21220 104500 19540 59480 15610 5754 17620 12630
2022-01-25 154000 941800 14010 28810 32840 10740 37240 117500 3612 91870 1779 126400 22700 13450 41140 143800 21230 104900 19560 59520 15620 5760 17660 12640

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-19 to 2022-01-25

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-01-18 2843 621803 31863 39427 131268 487202 144183 132113 301469 203645 52962 316168 93571 85077 853958 16734 9452 25395 78010 10662 9559 1260 2424 30813 4282 29350 19643 7163 12614 15195 20984 12466 1658 30504 11000 15818 10642 2957 20000 2059 30170 6177 8653 61993 5892 38655 15015 2559 77362 2593 15822 10226 11755 5561
2022-01-19 2911 621900 32010 39430 131400 487500 144200 132100 301600 203700 53040 316800 93750 85220 856000 16750 9464 25450 78130 10680 9561 1261 2426 30830 4293 29470 19740 7166 12650 15220 21030 12540 1663 30900 11050 15830 10660 2961 20050 2059 30220 6205 8668 62190 5910 38830 15080 2564 77490 2604 15840 10270 11790 5586
2022-01-20 2959 622100 32110 39460 131400 487700 144200 132200 301700 203800 53130 317500 93910 85360 857600 16760 9484 25460 78230 10700 9564 1262 2430 30860 4301 29580 19810 7170 12670 15230 21060 12580 1669 30920 11100 15840 10670 2963 20110 2072 30280 6238 8683 62320 5927 38980 15110 2573 77600 2611 15870 10310 11820 5606
2022-01-21 3005 622200 32230 39480 131500 487900 144200 132200 301800 203800 53220 318100 94040 85480 859300 16780 9504 25510 78380 10730 9640 1264 2441 30880 4306 29680 19900 7197 12700 15240 21110 12630 1681 31110 11120 15860 10680 2969 20150 2087 30350 6259 8692 62450 5941 39120 15130 2582 77620 2617 15890 10340 11860 5618
2022-01-22 3053 622300 32320 39500 131600 488200 144200 132200 302100 203800 53310 318700 94160 85640 859700 16790 9521 25540 78410 10730 9643 1265 2455 30890 4308 29690 19900 7201 12700 15240 21120 12670 1689 31160 11120 15870 10680 2969 20150 2088 30430 6259 8693 62540 5942 39250 15140 2583 77730 2618 15890 10350 11860 5618
2022-01-23 3083 622400 32390 39510 131700 488400 144200 132200 302100 203900 53390 319400 94260 85780 860000 16820 9533 25610 78440 10730 9644 1266 2459 30890 4310 29700 19910 7203 12700 15240 21120 12700 1689 31210 11120 15870 10680 2969 20150 2088 30460 6259 8694 62650 5943 39250 15140 2583 77800 2620 15890 10350 11860 5619
2022-01-24 3156 622500 32500 39530 131800 488600 144200 132200 302100 203900 53460 320000 94330 85920 861200 16830 9548 25630 78540 10760 9644 1267 2462 30950 4315 29740 19950 7212 12760 15250 21130 12710 1689 31350 11140 15870 10680 2970 20160 2094 30500 6265 8695 62800 5945 39270 15150 2585 77860 2623 15890 10350 11910 5633
2022-01-25 3198 622700 32600 39530 131800 488900 144200 132300 302200 204000 53570 320700 94440 86050 863300 16850 9567 25780 78590 10800 9681 1268 2468 30980 4325 29860 20070 7219 12790 15270 21220 12750 1707 31350 11180 16020 10690 2974 20200 2104 30570 6293 8719 62980 5972 39420 15180 2587 77960 2632 15910 10360 11950 5645

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths