COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-02-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-02-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) -- --2021-12-032021-12-062021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-072021-12-21 --2022-01-31 -- -- --2021-12-06 -- --2021-12-092021-12-21 --2021-10-29 -- --2021-12-162021-12-152021-12-13
Peak daily increment 58 50 165 47 306 388 39 29 190 58 441 440 86 13 24
Days since peak 63 60 88 95 41 59 45 4 60 57 45 98 50 51 53
Last total 157984 962013 14192 29227 33688 10963 37363 118681 3828 94040 2058 129411 23927 14035 41741 6228 148167 21313 106306 20127 60450 16180 5933 17921 1467 12779
Last daily increment 254 2005 25 42 100 24 38 173 17 0 17 353 94 46 105 0 433 3 246 50 97 80 21 25 0 11
Last week 2371 11696 115 270 567 145 195 951 111 1074 116 1676 652 304 512 92 2253 43 1168 300 518 325 87 125 28 99
Previous peak date -- --2021-06-24 --2021-07-05 --2021-06-082021-06-072021-06-062021-08-252021-11-262021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-11-032021-06-08 --2021-06-082021-08-072021-06-292021-06-222021-11-222021-06-062021-09-012021-06-08
Previous peak daily increment 4 29 10 98 1 116 8 89 10 13 66 59 14 147 16 18 8 3 3
Low between peaks 0 3 -1 -30 0 3 1 -2 0 -1 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-02-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-06-152022-01-272021-10-072021-12-092021-12-052021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252022-01-272021-08-212021-11-222022-01-062022-01-15 --2022-01-192022-01-282022-01-04 -- --2021-12-092022-01-262021-02-042022-01-072022-01-122021-09-202021-09-212022-01-192021-09-272022-01-312022-01-17 --2021-11-192022-01-252022-01-312021-12-282021-12-172021-12-09 --2021-12-02 --2022-01-24 -- --12-032022-01-25 -- -- --2022-01-202022-01-052021-12-232021-11-15 -- -- --2021-12-232021-10-132022-01-05 --2021-12-14 -- --2021-10-042021-11-30
Peak daily increment 2009 166 166 70 2269 1725 630 731 205 220 1212 322 250 41 89 19 38 31 5 25 17139 123 7 49 25 122 77 141 37 82 202 10 138 1905 4 25 9 205 126 356 29 1673 878 26 3 28 25
Days since peak 234 8 120 57 61 188 162 163 8 167 74 29 20 16 7 31 57 9 365 28 23 137 136 16 130 4 18 77 10 4 38 49 57 64 11 428 10 15 30 43 81 43 114 30 52 123 66
Last total 4154 631265 34536 39867 135282 501114 144320 132681 308829 206646 54214 327310 95545 88312 901391 1092 17371 9762 26530 80914 11202 10158 1293 2563 64958 32098 1192 8657 4478 31296 20894 7713 13063 15905 22360 13461 1800 32658 11599 16756 11250 3031 21097 2127 2230 2219 31868 6535 9143 65139 34212 12189 6214 41359 15791 2687 22279 80443 2716 16703 544 10962 12600 5846 1650
Last daily increment 81 964 158 43 239 1059 0 57 1336 240 46 668 0 248 4154 0 156 29 100 239 8 75 2 8 1117 107 10 0 12 173 38 139 37 64 63 39 23 236 38 9 48 2 70 6 0 7 99 19 60 155 0 0 33 160 47 10 0 169 8 155 4 122 52 17 0
Last week 436 4395 889 214 1450 7023 35 301 3067 1534 343 3858 640 1267 16332 8 285 146 347 1153 141 177 9 32 1195 517 31 156 73 608 386 194 173 274 469 243 62 672 217 419 419 38 502 34 0 38 478 118 230 855 26 148 128 811 525 50 555 1193 43 576 17 268 309 103 25
Previous peak date2021-10-10 --2021-10-122021-07-032021-06-242021-06-10 -- -- --2021-07-11 -- --2021-07-212021-09-04 --2021-10-192021-09-212021-10-10 --2021-10-192021-06-082021-09-2704-302021-07-302021-07-042021-06-082021-06-182021-10-272021-06-212021-09-20 --2021-10-272021-06-092021-09-15 --2021-10-132021-10-062021-06-07 --2021-09-082021-09-082021-10-182021-09-202021-10-1905-202021-11-02 --2021-06-132021-09-22 -- --2021-10-202021-06-102021-06-222021-09-202021-08-042021-09-20 --2021-06-252021-10-1204-092021-09-202021-07-282021-06-092021-09-24
Previous peak daily increment 15 41 116 647 4974 548 390 271 34 118 120 139 9 51 11 115 0 26 1 26 6 38 43 11 66 17 13 29 74 55 20 76 6 41 15 3 23 591 8 17 68 4 66 9 44 11 43 68 20 7
Low between peaks 18 7 25 -82 14 17 79 -1 7 6 4 3 0 0 -185 2 0 9 1 18 3 0 -2 3 0 -3 1 1 4 -6 1 17 1 0 1 1

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-04 157984 962013 14192 29227 33688 10963 37363 118681 3828 94040 2058 129411 23927 14035 41741 6228 148167 21313 106306 20127 60450 16180 5933 17921 1467 12779
2022-02-05 158100 963100 14190 29230 33700 10980 37400 118800 3845 94090 2076 129500 23980 14100 41750 6228 148400 21330 106700 20180 60560 16180 5953 17940 1474 12790
2022-02-06 158100 963700 14190 29230 33730 11000 37420 118900 3856 94090 2092 129600 24050 14170 41760 6228 148500 21330 106800 20240 60640 16180 5969 17980 1475 12790
2022-02-07 158100 965500 14200 29280 33880 11010 37450 119100 3870 94300 2108 129900 24160 14240 41920 6228 148700 21340 106800 20290 60710 16180 5985 18000 1476 12820
2022-02-08 158400 967800 14210 29310 33960 11030 37480 119300 3885 94660 2124 130300 24260 14300 41980 6228 149000 21350 107100 20340 60790 16200 6001 18030 1477 12840
2022-02-09 158600 969700 14220 29340 34040 11050 37510 119500 3900 94820 2140 130400 24360 14360 42050 6292 149300 21360 107500 20390 60890 16250 6018 18050 1502 12860
2022-02-10 158700 971700 14240 29390 34120 11070 37540 119700 3916 94990 2156 130700 24460 14420 42130 6292 149600 21370 107700 20440 60990 16300 6035 18070 1503 12880
2022-02-11 159000 973500 14260 29420 34210 11090 37570 119800 3932 95040 2172 131000 24550 14480 42210 6292 150000 21370 107900 20490 61060 16360 6051 18100 1503 12890

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-04 4154 631265 34536 39867 135282 501114 144320 132681 308829 206646 54214 327310 95545 88312 901391 17371 9762 26530 80914 11202 10158 2563 64958 32098 1192 8657 4478 31296 20894 7713 13063 15905 22360 13461 1800 32658 11599 16756 11250 3031 21097 2127 2219 31868 6535 9143 65139 34212 12189 6214 41359 15791 2687 22279 80443 2716 16703 10962 12600 5846 1650
2022-02-05 4228 631400 34680 39870 135500 502200 144300 132700 308800 206800 54270 327900 95750 88550 901900 17370 9800 26620 80910 11250 10190 2590 64960 32100 1193 8657 4478 31410 20970 7713 13070 15910 22390 13590 1800 32750 11600 16760 11290 3031 21100 2127 2235 32020 6553 9143 65450 34220 12190 6214 41540 15960 2687 22280 80490 2719 16700 10960 12610 5852 1660
2022-02-06 4254 631500 34740 39870 135800 503200 144300 132800 308800 206800 54380 328600 95860 88740 901900 17370 9836 26650 80910 11250 10190 2590 65320 32100 1195 8661 4478 31440 20980 7713 13070 15910 22390 13620 1800 32770 11600 16760 11320 3031 21100 2127 2239 32040 6553 9143 65600 34250 12190 6214 41550 16030 2687 22290 80490 2720 16730 10960 12610 5852 1663
2022-02-07 4304 631800 34880 39890 136000 504200 144300 132800 308800 206800 54460 329200 95980 88940 903700 17370 9869 26650 81050 11300 10200 2590 65610 32160 1195 8661 4481 31650 21040 7713 13130 15910 22480 13630 1800 32810 11630 16760 11380 3037 21180 2127 2245 32080 6585 9146 65710 34270 12200 6216 41560 16100 2695 22300 80490 2728 16840 11010 12680 5872 1665
2022-02-08 4363 632200 35040 39890 136300 505200 144400 132800 309100 206800 54530 329800 96080 89140 906700 17370 9898 26760 81120 11350 10250 2592 65870 32220 1195 8661 4485 31780 21170 7713 13160 15980 22590 13690 1807 32810 11660 16900 11410 3049 21220 2134 2258 32190 6608 9188 65960 34280 12200 6239 41760 16210 2701 22300 80650 2741 16890 11010 12750 5884 1684
2022-02-09 4426 632700 35170 39890 136500 506100 144400 132900 309100 206800 54600 330400 96210 89340 910100 17400 9927 26820 81340 11370 10290 2601 66130 32300 1199 8774 4503 31890 21280 7741 13180 16000 22680 13770 1814 33220 11710 16980 11480 3056 21290 2141 2266 32310 6627 9216 66190 34290 12370 6275 41920 16280 2708 22370 80880 2750 16960 11080 12790 5912 1684
2022-02-10 4495 633300 35370 39950 136700 507000 144400 132900 309600 206800 54660 331000 96300 89550 912200 17410 9955 26860 81540 11390 10290 2604 66380 32420 1204 8776 4517 31940 21350 7741 13220 16060 22750 13820 1828 33220 11760 17000 11520 3058 21400 2146 2277 32420 6654 9249 66350 34300 12370 6292 42130 16340 2719 22730 81140 2757 17020 11090 12820 5928 1684
2022-02-11 4567 634200 35510 39970 137000 507900 144400 133000 310600 206900 54730 331600 96350 89760 915900 17520 9983 26940 81750 11410 10370 2609 66620 32510 1210 8798 4531 32080 21400 7854 13250 16110 22800 13860 1844 33420 11800 17020 11560 3062 21460 2150 2286 32520 6671 9296 66500 34310 12370 6317 42290 16400 2730 22730 81270 2763 17130 11200 12890 5949 1684

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-04 157984 962013 14192 29227 33688 10963 37363 118681 3828 94040 2058 129411 23927 14035 41741 6228 148167 21313 106306 20127 60450 16180 5933 17921 1467 12779
2022-02-05 158300 963400 14210 29240 33720 10990 37400 118800 3846 94030 2072 129600 24010 14080 41760 6229 148500 21320 106600 20180 60540 16210 5948 17940 1469 12780
2022-02-06 158500 964100 14220 29240 33760 11000 37420 118800 3862 94030 2080 129700 24090 14130 41770 6232 148800 21320 106600 20220 60600 16210 5960 17960 1469 12790
2022-02-07 158600 965900 14230 29310 33910 11020 37450 119000 3877 94200 2098 130000 24200 14180 41930 6237 149100 21330 106700 20260 60650 16210 5971 17980 1471 12820
2022-02-08 159400 968300 14250 29340 33990 11040 37470 119200 3893 94560 2108 130400 24290 14230 42000 6240 149500 21340 106900 20310 60720 16270 5983 18000 1471 12830
2022-02-09 159800 970200 14260 29370 34060 11060 37500 119300 3910 94730 2119 130600 24400 14280 42060 6287 149900 21350 107200 20350 60810 16320 5995 18020 1494 12850
2022-02-10 160100 972000 14270 29410 34140 11080 37530 119500 3928 94870 2129 130800 24500 14330 42130 6294 150200 21360 107400 20400 60890 16350 6007 18040 1494 12870
2022-02-11 160500 973800 14280 29430 34220 11100 37550 119600 3945 95030 2144 131100 24600 14380 42210 6296 150600 21370 107600 20440 60950 16400 6020 18060 1495 12870

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-04 4154 631265 34536 39867 135282 501114 144320 132681 308829 206646 54214 327310 95545 88312 901391 17371 9762 26530 80914 11202 10158 2563 64958 32098 1192 8657 4478 31296 20894 7713 13063 15905 22360 13461 1800 32658 11599 16756 11250 3031 21097 2127 2219 31868 6535 9143 65139 34212 12189 6214 41359 15791 2687 22279 80443 2716 16703 10962 12600 5846 1650
2022-02-05 4225 632000 34660 39900 135500 502100 144300 132700 309400 206800 54270 327900 95650 88530 902700 17420 9781 26660 80990 11200 10160 2593 65430 32120 1200 8659 4483 31290 20890 7732 13060 15930 22360 13530 1810 32660 11610 16760 11290 3032 21120 2130 2217 31960 6538 9159 65270 34210 12190 6219 41490 15860 2688 22340 80640 2716 16780 10970 12610 5847 1652
2022-02-06 4273 632400 34750 39920 135800 502900 144300 132800 309500 207000 54320 328500 95750 88700 903100 17420 9790 26700 81000 11200 10160 2593 65910 32130 1205 8663 4484 31290 20900 7735 13070 15930 22360 13540 1811 32670 11610 16760 11320 3032 21130 2130 2218 31980 6539 9161 65370 34230 12190 6220 41510 15910 2689 22370 80710 2717 16800 10970 12610 5847 1654
2022-02-07 4349 632800 34890 39950 136100 503700 144300 132800 309700 207000 54390 329100 95880 88880 905000 17430 9805 26700 81160 11240 10160 2593 66200 32200 1206 8669 4492 31480 20930 7740 13130 15950 22440 13550 1811 32700 11630 16770 11380 3038 21220 2130 2221 32010 6564 9177 65450 34230 12200 6226 41510 15970 2696 22390 80740 2723 16890 11020 12670 5864 1655
2022-02-08 4418 633500 35050 39950 136300 504500 144300 132800 310200 207100 54450 329700 95970 89060 908100 17470 9829 26820 81240 11290 10200 2597 66460 32270 1206 8673 4497 31610 21040 7742 13150 16020 22560 13610 1821 32710 11660 16940 11440 3049 21280 2139 2232 32120 6586 9227 65690 34240 12210 6248 41690 16100 2703 22420 80930 2736 16940 11020 12740 5875 1671
2022-02-09 4503 634100 35200 39950 136600 505400 144400 132900 310300 207300 54510 330300 96070 89250 911500 17490 9846 26890 81420 11310 10250 2604 66690 32350 1210 8791 4514 31720 21130 7776 13180 16060 22660 13690 1829 33080 11710 17000 11480 3055 21350 2147 2242 32250 6607 9256 65930 34250 12350 6283 41850 16170 2710 22510 81160 2746 17010 11090 12780 5901 1671
2022-02-10 4597 634800 35390 39990 136800 506200 144400 132900 310600 207400 54590 330900 96190 89430 913800 17500 9868 26920 81590 11350 10260 2606 67310 32450 1215 8792 4525 31840 21220 7778 13210 16110 22740 13750 1839 33100 11760 17020 11530 3057 21440 2150 2259 32380 6637 9285 66120 34260 12360 6299 42100 16230 2719 22700 81370 2754 17060 11110 12810 5917 1672
2022-02-11 4717 635600 35540 40010 137100 507000 144400 132900 311300 207500 54650 331400 96280 89610 917300 17580 9886 26990 81820 11400 10340 2611 67540 32550 1219 8796 4545 32000 21310 7870 13250 16160 22810 13820 1846 33330 11790 17050 11570 3059 21500 2153 2273 32490 6662 9319 66330 34270 12370 6321 42270 16340 2731 22710 81520 2761 17110 11220 12890 5946 1673

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths