COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-02-24


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-02-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-01 --2021-12-032022-02-142021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-07 -- --2022-02-14 --2022-01-252021-11-282021-12-062022-01-122022-01-252021-12-092021-12-212022-02-022021-10-29 --2021-11-222021-12-162022-02-092021-12-13
Peak daily increment 680 58 50 165 47 306 388 17 104 65 190 28 375 58 441 47 440 18 86 15 24
Days since peak 23 83 10 108 115 61 79 10 30 88 80 43 30 77 65 22 118 94 70 15 73
Last total 161104 1002615 14700 30101 35357 11519 38433 122381 4461 99162 2364 134772 25603 14964 43664 6471 154013 21507 110858 20941 63073 17083 6257 18338 1598 13073
Last daily increment 125 1950 39 25 59 27 30 221 39 226 13 279 65 22 102 11 249 0 341 19 115 19 11 24 0 11
Last week 725 10702 163 181 384 165 327 1174 211 1164 87 1249 420 235 598 54 1417 42 1349 182 750 231 83 137 50 61
Previous peak date -- --2021-06-242021-12-122021-07-05 --2021-06-082021-06-072021-12-212021-08-252021-11-262021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-06-172021-06-08 --2021-06-082021-08-062021-06-292021-06-222021-06-122021-06-062021-11-172021-06-08
Previous peak daily increment 4 50 29 10 98 35 116 8 89 10 20 66 59 14 147 16 2 8 12 3
Low between peaks 0 17 3 -1 -30 3 1 0 12 1 5 -2 0 0 3 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-02-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-272022-02-142022-01-242021-10-072022-01-292021-12-052021-07-312021-08-262022-02-032022-02-082022-02-062021-11-222022-01-062022-02-19 --2021-12-172022-01-282022-02-142022-01-262022-02-142022-02-072022-01-242021-02-042022-01-072022-01-122022-02-142022-02-16 --2022-02-152022-01-242022-01-102021-12-012021-11-192022-02-142022-01-242021-12-282022-02-192022-01-182021-12-062021-12-022022-01-312022-02-152022-02-0712-0912-03 --2022-01-242021-12-172022-02-072022-01-192022-01-132021-12-232022-02-072022-01-242022-02-012022-02-112021-12-232022-02-132022-01-052022-02-072022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2021-11-30
Peak daily increment 81 866 163 166 254 2269 1725 630 478 201 177 1212 358 280 42 49 36 75 209 124 35 5 25 15341 91 6 14 132 79 44 141 50 81 202 22 138 38 1905 59 5 76 27 25 109 22 30 212 149 356 20 157 85 6 1673 215 27 254 3 51 25
Days since peak 28 10 31 140 26 81 208 182 21 16 18 94 49 5 69 27 10 29 10 17 31 385 48 43 10 8 9 31 45 85 97 10 31 58 5 37 80 84 24 9 17 442 448 31 69 17 36 42 63 17 31 23 13 63 11 50 17 31 31 86
Last total 5095 647703 36332 41795 138421 513226 147342 135952 317303 210116 56165 341624 99018 93539 944830 1162 18102 10381 27876 84725 11750 10442 1317 2703 68902 33828 1300 9085 4722 32580 21858 7928 13689 16582 23316 13995 2024 34152 12066 17857 11984 3162 22449 2183 2230 2344 32800 6873 9612 66769 36262 12990 6578 43069 16643 2788 23513 84441 2844 18440 576 11725 13223 6288 1718
Last daily increment 33 989 77 224 57 302 317 226 362 189 188 752 40 281 2941 0 95 40 86 260 21 5 0 0 0 115 8 0 7 63 40 0 0 25 46 27 53 0 47 352 30 6 59 3 0 2 0 22 38 58 0 0 59 67 29 4 0 251 5 102 0 23 67 38 0
Last week 217 4363 335 728 552 1996 1298 1345 2705 1006 756 4550 720 1629 9735 22 225 110 363 866 69 85 3 43 1330 439 20 137 48 281 191 23 124 182 229 107 114 372 105 406 148 57 301 11 0 38 153 98 105 298 0 223 122 383 110 16 520 1014 23 424 9 209 155 126 29
Previous peak date2021-10-102021-06-152021-10-122021-07-032021-06-242021-06-10 -- --2021-08-252021-07-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-04 --2021-09-242021-09-212021-10-10 --2021-10-192021-06-082021-09-2704-302021-07-302021-07-082021-09-202021-09-212021-10-272021-09-272021-09-20 --2021-08-202021-06-092021-09-15 --2021-10-132021-10-062021-06-07 --2021-09-082021-09-062021-10-182021-09-20 --05-202021-12-27 --2021-06-072021-09-22 --12-172021-10-202021-11-152021-06-222021-09-2411-272021-09-202021-10-132021-06-252021-10-1204-092021-09-202021-07-282021-10-042021-09-24
Previous peak daily increment 15 2009 41 116 647 4974 731 548 220 390 271 34 118 120 139 9 51 11 115 0 123 7 26 25 38 41 11 66 17 13 29 74 48 20 76 41 11 3 23 194 591 29 17 70 23 66 878 9 44 11 43 68 28 7
Low between peaks 5 88 18 7 25 -82 106 26 56 17 90 0 7 6 53 4 3 0 0 -185 23 1 6 18 4 3 3 -2 3 0 -3 4 1 16 1 1 9 4 -6 10 4 11 0 17 55 1 7 0 2 1

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-24 161104 1002615 14700 30101 35357 11519 38433 122381 4461 99162 2364 134772 25603 14964 43664 6471 154013 21507 110858 20941 63073 17083 6257 18338 1598 13073
2022-02-25 161400 1005000 14720 30200 35440 11550 38490 122500 4507 99600 2389 134900 25700 15010 43750 6498 154500 21530 111100 20980 63200 17180 6272 18360 1606 13110
2022-02-26 161700 1006000 14720 30220 35440 11570 38530 122500 4542 99600 2389 134900 25850 15070 43750 6499 154900 21540 111300 21050 63330 17180 6293 18370 1611 13120
2022-02-27 161800 1006000 14740 30220 35440 11590 38580 122500 4576 99600 2389 134900 25970 15130 43750 6499 155100 21540 111300 21100 63390 17180 6311 18390 1616 13120
2022-02-28 161900 1007000 14750 30330 35560 11610 38620 122800 4605 100100 2438 135200 26080 15170 43950 6514 155300 21550 111300 21150 63450 17180 6327 18400 1625 13140
2022-03-01 162100 1009000 14780 30360 35600 11640 38670 123000 4634 100300 2438 135200 26180 15220 44050 6536 155700 21560 111600 21190 63630 17250 6343 18420 1625 13160
2022-03-02 162300 1011000 14810 30400 35630 11660 38720 123300 4671 100600 2459 135400 26280 15260 44160 6559 155900 21560 112000 21230 63780 17380 6359 18440 1671 13170
2022-03-03 162400 1013000 14840 30440 35690 11690 38770 123500 4711 100800 2474 135600 26370 15310 44250 6562 156200 21570 112300 21270 63880 17400 6374 18460 1671 13190

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-24 5095 647703 36332 41795 138421 513226 147342 135952 317303 210116 56165 341624 99018 93539 944830 1162 18102 10381 27876 84725 11750 10442 2703 68902 33828 1300 9085 4722 32580 21858 7928 13689 16582 23316 13995 2024 34152 12066 17857 11984 3162 22449 2344 32800 6873 9612 66769 12990 6578 43069 16643 23513 84441 2844 18440 11725 13223 6288 1718
2022-02-25 5135 648900 36550 41800 138500 513400 147600 136100 317800 210300 56220 342400 99400 93810 949000 1171 18150 10410 27980 85100 11790 10470 2709 69110 33980 1311 9118 4750 32720 21990 7982 13770 16650 23410 14060 2024 34310 12120 17860 12080 3173 22600 2351 32930 6896 9666 66990 13060 6588 43250 16780 23510 84750 2860 18480 11800 13280 6305 1718
2022-02-26 5220 649800 36670 41820 138600 513800 147700 136300 318700 210500 56220 343100 99600 94070 950300 1173 18180 10450 28010 85200 11790 10470 2743 69260 33980 1323 9134 4751 32740 22000 7990 13770 16650 23430 14110 2028 34310 12130 17860 12110 3177 22610 2351 33000 6896 9678 67090 13080 6588 43340 16830 23510 84960 2863 18480 11870 13290 6305 1719
2022-02-27 5283 650100 36730 41900 138700 514000 147900 136400 318700 210700 56230 343800 99600 94330 950800 1175 18180 10490 28070 85250 11790 10470 2743 69460 33980 1328 9147 4751 32750 22000 7991 13770 16660 23440 14130 2028 34310 12130 17860 12110 3182 22620 2351 33020 6896 9681 67170 13090 6588 43420 16850 23510 85040 2865 18480 11870 13300 6305 1719
2022-02-28 5335 650400 36790 41990 138800 514200 148100 136600 318800 210900 56270 344500 99800 94580 952500 1179 18180 10520 28070 85390 11820 10490 2743 69650 34100 1328 9183 4758 32830 22040 8001 13860 16710 23470 14140 2028 34310 12150 17860 12150 3187 22730 2351 33030 6914 9696 67230 13130 6596 43460 16900 23510 85100 2871 18590 11900 13340 6322 1719
2022-03-01 5384 651200 36910 42030 138900 514400 148300 136800 318900 211000 56330 345200 99900 94840 955000 1187 18180 10550 28170 85670 11830 10500 2749 69860 34190 1328 9238 4781 32950 22110 8031 13880 16760 23540 14170 2028 34310 12180 17940 12180 3204 22790 2355 33130 6938 9748 67340 13190 6621 43540 16960 23510 85320 2881 18640 11900 13370 6358 1759
2022-03-02 5427 652300 36990 42070 139000 514600 148400 136900 319900 211200 56390 345900 100000 95090 957600 1212 18250 10580 28190 85820 11850 10540 2751 70070 34310 1331 9390 4798 33020 22160 8042 13910 16800 23640 14190 2030 34610 12210 17980 12270 3221 22890 2371 33190 6964 9768 67390 13450 6654 43680 17000 23930 85570 2890 18720 12000 13410 6391 1759
2022-03-03 5468 653100 37070 42250 139100 514700 148600 137100 320200 211400 56460 346600 100100 95340 960500 1212 18310 10610 28290 86040 11870 10550 2751 70280 34410 1340 9390 4806 33070 22210 8044 13920 16830 23690 14220 2068 34610 12250 18180 12300 3227 22960 2374 33210 6985 9803 67460 13450 6699 43750 17060 23950 85820 2895 18830 12010 13470 6426 1769

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-24 161104 1002615 14700 30101 35357 11519 38433 122381 4461 99162 2364 134772 25603 14964 43664 6471 154013 21507 110858 20941 63073 17083 6257 18338 1598 13073
2022-02-25 161200 1005000 14730 30130 35430 11540 38480 122600 4503 99400 2378 135000 25680 15000 43770 6479 154300 21520 111200 20970 63200 17170 6271 18360 1602 13080
2022-02-26 161400 1006000 14740 30140 35450 11570 38530 122600 4538 99400 2379 135200 25750 15050 43780 6481 154600 21530 111400 21020 63340 17170 6287 18380 1606 13090
2022-02-27 161400 1007000 14770 30140 35480 11590 38580 122700 4572 99400 2379 135300 25820 15100 43780 6482 154700 21540 111500 21060 63420 17170 6303 18390 1609 13090
2022-02-28 161400 1007000 14780 30230 35630 11620 38640 122900 4607 99800 2424 135400 25900 15140 43990 6496 154900 21540 111500 21100 63490 17170 6318 18410 1612 13100
2022-03-01 161600 1011000 14810 30280 35700 11650 38690 123100 4637 100100 2424 135800 25960 15190 44110 6522 155200 21550 111800 21140 63670 17220 6334 18430 1613 13120
2022-03-02 161800 1013000 14840 30330 35770 11680 38740 123400 4671 100400 2445 136100 26030 15230 44210 6549 155500 21560 112100 21180 63810 17340 6349 18450 1645 13140
2022-03-03 161900 1015000 14870 30390 35870 11700 38800 123600 4709 100800 2468 136400 26100 15270 44320 6558 155800 21570 112400 21210 63920 17370 6364 18470 1647 13160

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-24 5095 647703 36332 41795 138421 513226 147342 135952 317303 210116 56165 341624 99018 93539 944830 1162 18102 10381 27876 84725 11750 10442 2703 68902 33828 1300 9085 4722 32580 21858 7928 13689 16582 23316 13995 2024 34152 12066 17857 11984 3162 22449 2344 32800 6873 9612 66769 12990 6578 43069 16643 23513 84441 2844 18440 11725 13223 6288 1718
2022-02-25 5146 648800 36410 41900 138500 513500 147600 136200 317700 210300 56270 342400 99200 93810 947800 1165 18190 10410 28000 84990 11760 10480 2705 69200 33960 1302 9098 4740 32630 21940 7957 13730 16620 23370 14010 2048 34280 12100 17920 12030 3173 22520 2353 32830 6900 9640 66840 13000 6598 43130 16640 23530 84670 2852 18520 11770 13260 6311 1719
2022-02-26 5191 649700 36450 41980 138600 513700 147700 136400 318500 210400 56370 343100 99500 94080 948600 1166 18240 10440 28030 85070 11780 10480 2739 69370 33960 1312 9103 4741 32630 21940 7960 13730 16620 23370 14040 2071 34310 12100 17920 12040 3176 22530 2354 32850 6900 9646 66870 13000 6599 43160 16650 23530 84850 2853 18530 11830 13260 6312 1720
2022-02-27 5221 650000 36470 42100 138700 514000 147900 136600 318600 210600 56430 343800 99500 94340 949000 1167 18240 10460 28090 85120 11780 10480 2739 69560 33970 1316 9110 4742 32640 21940 7963 13730 16620 23370 14050 2073 34310 12100 17930 12050 3180 22530 2356 32850 6901 9650 66910 13000 6599 43210 16650 23530 84930 2853 18530 11830 13260 6314 1721
2022-02-28 5263 650300 36510 42210 138800 514200 148100 136800 318600 210700 56510 344500 99600 94600 950500 1168 18240 10480 28100 85240 11810 10490 2739 69760 34070 1316 9123 4749 32690 21970 7970 13820 16670 23400 14050 2074 34330 12110 17930 12080 3185 22610 2359 32860 6916 9661 66950 13020 6602 43220 16670 23530 84970 2858 18680 11850 13290 6333 1722
2022-03-01 5306 651200 36620 42240 138900 514300 148300 136900 318800 210900 56550 345100 99800 94860 953000 1169 18250 10520 28180 85500 11830 10510 2744 69950 34170 1316 9138 4773 32790 22030 7996 13830 16710 23470 14090 2078 34340 12140 18090 12120 3199 22670 2367 32930 6936 9703 67060 13020 6624 43310 16730 23530 85180 2870 18780 11860 13330 6367 1749
2022-03-02 5346 652200 36720 42270 139000 514500 148400 137100 319700 211000 56640 345800 99900 95120 956000 1189 18320 10550 28190 85720 11860 10540 2749 70230 34280 1322 9250 4793 32880 22100 8023 13860 16750 23550 14120 2084 34640 12180 18120 12220 3212 22790 2384 32990 6958 9734 67150 13240 6653 43450 16800 23890 85460 2880 18890 11980 13370 6404 1749
2022-03-03 5382 653100 36810 42410 139100 514700 148600 137300 320000 211200 56730 346600 100200 95380 958700 1190 18360 10580 28290 85950 11900 10540 2750 70410 34400 1333 9251 4808 32940 22150 8029 13890 16790 23590 14150 2104 34650 12210 18210 12250 3222 22880 2388 33040 6975 9772 67220 13250 6679 43520 16900 23930 85740 2887 18990 11980 13410 6440 1751

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths