COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-03-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-03-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-012022-02-222021-12-032022-02-142021-11-082021-11-012022-02-212021-12-072022-02-252022-02-162022-02-142022-02-222022-01-292021-11-282021-12-062022-01-122022-01-292021-12-092021-12-212022-02-022021-10-292022-02-152022-02-082021-12-162021-12-152021-12-13
Peak daily increment 715 3645 58 48 165 47 59 388 41 267 17 3203 106 65 190 28 379 58 441 47 440 51 17 86 20 24
Days since peak 28 7 88 15 113 120 8 84 4 13 15 7 31 93 85 48 31 82 70 27 123 14 21 75 76 78
Last total 161630 1009680 14841 30199 35637 11639 38685 123024 4649 99883 2380 135520 25914 15101 44051 6508 155000 21591 111586 21086 63578 17242 6318 18530 1599 13110
Last daily increment 269 2029 32 20 56 -9 93 75 37 473 14 160 54 32 102 11 233 16 269 23 164 100 11 45 1 9
Last week 651 9015 180 123 339 147 282 864 227 947 29 1027 376 159 489 48 1236 84 1069 164 620 178 72 216 1 48
Previous peak date --2021-12-092021-06-242021-12-062021-07-05 --2021-12-252021-06-072021-12-212021-08-302021-06-082021-12-07 --2021-06-14 --2021-06-172021-06-08 --2021-06-082021-08-062021-06-292021-06-222021-11-222021-06-06 --2021-06-08
Previous peak daily increment 2025 4 50 29 306 98 39 116 0 124 10 20 66 59 14 147 16 18 8 3
Low between peaks 427 0 17 3 20 -30 11 18 0 -2589 1 0 12 1 5 -2 0 7 0 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-03-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-282022-02-142022-01-272021-10-072022-01-292021-12-052021-07-312021-08-262022-02-032022-01-302022-02-062021-11-222022-01-062022-02-232022-01-282021-12-172022-01-282022-02-142022-01-292022-02-142022-02-072022-01-242021-02-042022-01-072022-01-122022-02-142022-02-092021-04-032022-02-152022-01-242022-01-102022-01-072021-11-192022-02-142022-01-302021-12-28 --2022-01-182021-12-062021-12-022022-01-312022-02-012022-02-0712-0912-0305-292022-01-242021-12-172022-02-012022-01-192022-01-122021-10-202022-01-312022-01-272022-02-012022-01-312021-12-232022-02-132022-01-052022-02-072021-12-142022-02-072022-01-302022-02-212021-11-30
Peak daily increment 85 855 166 166 256 2269 1725 630 479 211 143 1212 358 275 2641 41 52 34 76 204 120 32 5 24 15341 90 6 53 14 122 79 49 141 45 77 202 138 38 1905 62 5 75 27 25 25 101 22 30 212 150 565 19 154 88 7 1673 212 27 237 3 44 52 23 25
Days since peak 32 15 33 145 31 86 213 187 26 30 23 99 54 6 32 74 32 15 31 15 22 36 390 53 48 15 20 332 14 36 50 53 102 15 30 63 42 85 89 29 28 22 447 453 641 36 74 28 41 48 132 29 33 28 29 68 16 55 22 77 22 30 8 91
Last total 5269 649922 36630 42353 138854 514246 148660 137064 318531 210672 56451 345427 99430 94648 952423 1162 18287 10579 27946 85553 11794 10468 1319 2711 69008 34145 1322 9085 4763 32803 21990 7943 13900 16606 23465 14060 2065 34287 12131 18039 12100 3189 22608 2194 2230 2359 32951 6925 9715 66955 36817 12990 6648 43332 16912 2808 23513 85029 2857 18811 582 11859 13351 6339 1741
Last daily increment 59 246 36 0 87 223 325 226 382 0 0 772 18 203 1691 0 62 55 0 89 22 1 1 2 106 111 0 0 12 40 37 0 44 0 65 17 1 0 22 154 61 2 38 2 0 8 36 6 12 51 0 0 26 116 47 3 0 151 3 40 0 0 54 22 23
Last week 207 3208 375 782 490 1322 1635 1338 1590 745 474 4555 452 1390 9980 0 280 238 156 1088 65 31 2 8 106 432 30 0 48 286 172 15 211 49 195 92 94 135 112 534 146 33 218 14 0 17 151 74 141 244 1 0 129 330 298 24 0 839 18 473 6 157 195 89 23
Previous peak date2021-10-102021-06-152021-10-122021-07-032021-06-242021-06-10 -- --2021-08-252021-07-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-04 --2021-10-192021-09-212021-10-10 --2021-10-192021-06-082021-09-2704-302021-07-302021-07-102021-09-202021-09-2112-112021-09-272021-09-20 --2021-01-132021-06-092021-09-15 --2021-10-132021-10-062021-06-07 --2021-09-082021-09-062021-10-182021-09-20 --05-20 -- --2021-06-072021-09-22 --12-172021-04-072021-11-152021-06-222021-09-242021-08-042021-02-052021-10-1312-102021-10-1204-092021-09-202021-07-282021-10-042021-09-24
Previous peak daily increment 15 2009 41 116 647 4974 731 548 220 390 271 34 118 120 139 9 51 11 115 0 123 7 302 25 38 200 11 66 17 13 29 74 48 20 76 41 3 23 194 1416 29 17 70 4 113 878 9 44 11 43 68 28 7
Low between peaks 5 88 18 7 25 -82 106 26 56 17 90 0 7 6 53 4 3 0 1 -185 23 1 6 6 18 1 3 3 -2 0 -3 4 1 16 1 1 9 4 -9 10 4 11 0 4 55 1 7 0 11 2 11 1

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-02 to 2022-03-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2022-03-01 161630 1009680 14841 30199 35637 11639 38685 123024 4649 99883 2380 135520 25914 15101 44051 6508 155000 21591 111586 21086 63578 17242 6318 18530 13110
2022-03-02 161900 1012000 14860 30290 35830 11650 38740 123400 4683 100400 2423 135800 25980 15130 44180 6535 155400 21620 112000 21110 63780 17360 6331 18560 13140
2022-03-03 162100 1013000 14890 30360 35970 11660 38800 123600 4699 100700 2444 136100 26070 15160 44290 6548 155800 21630 112300 21140 63920 17390 6353 18590 13160
2022-03-04 162200 1015000 14910 30400 36090 11670 38850 123800 4724 101000 2453 136300 26140 15180 44380 6555 156100 21650 112500 21170 64050 17450 6370 18620 13170
2022-03-05 162300 1016000 14930 30400 36160 11680 38910 123900 4751 101100 2454 136400 26210 15210 44380 6556 156300 21660 112700 21190 64160 17450 6386 18650 13170
2022-03-06 162400 1016000 14950 30410 36230 11690 38960 123900 4780 101100 2456 136400 26280 15230 44380 6558 156500 21670 112800 21210 64230 17450 6400 18680 13170
2022-03-07 162500 1017000 14970 30470 36370 11700 39010 124100 4812 101200 2469 136600 26340 15260 44590 6574 156600 21680 112800 21240 64280 17450 6414 18710 13190
2022-03-08 162700 1020000 15000 30500 36410 11710 39070 124200 4844 101600 2479 136800 26400 15280 44690 6596 156900 21700 113000 21260 64450 17520 6427 18740 13200

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-02 to 2022-03-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-03-01 5269 649922 36630 42353 138854 514246 148660 137064 318531 210672 56451 345427 99430 94648 952423 18287 10579 27946 85553 11794 10468 69008 34145 1322 4763 32803 21990 13900 16606 23465 14060 2065 34287 12131 18039 12100 3189 22608 32951 6925 9715 66955 6648 43332 16912 2808 85029 18811 11859 13351 6339 1741
2022-03-02 5306 651500 36820 42350 138900 514400 148900 137300 319600 210800 56550 346200 99800 94890 955500 18330 10610 28130 85760 11830 10520 69200 34270 1328 4790 32920 22090 13930 16700 23560 14140 2068 34610 12160 18040 12180 3198 22770 33040 6958 9739 67150 6656 43490 16950 2819 85390 18910 11970 13370 6384 1741
2022-03-03 5371 652700 36960 42510 139000 514800 149200 137500 320000 211100 56670 346900 100000 95190 959000 18380 10640 28240 86030 11860 10520 69610 34400 1338 4803 33000 22150 13940 16760 23610 14210 2097 34610 12210 18230 12220 3198 22860 33090 6981 9780 67290 6695 43580 17010 2825 85700 19020 11990 13430 6424 1742
2022-03-04 5422 653600 37130 42600 139100 515100 149500 137700 320400 211300 56760 347600 100200 95460 961300 18450 10660 28330 86290 11870 10550 69880 34510 1345 4814 33070 22230 14000 16800 23640 14250 2110 34730 12230 18230 12250 3198 22930 33150 7010 9820 67410 6699 43660 17100 2838 85900 19130 12070 13460 6443 1743
2022-03-05 5465 654400 37200 42700 139200 515300 149700 137900 320900 211400 56850 348300 100400 95710 962100 18480 10690 28350 86350 11870 10550 70100 34510 1354 4815 33070 22240 14000 16800 23650 14290 2129 34730 12230 18230 12250 3198 22930 33180 7010 9820 67480 6699 43710 17100 2838 86050 19130 12080 13460 6443 1749
2022-03-06 5506 654600 37270 42780 139300 515500 150000 138100 321000 211600 56940 349000 100400 95950 962500 18480 10720 28370 86370 11870 10560 70310 34510 1355 4815 33090 22240 14000 16810 23650 14340 2129 34740 12230 18230 12250 3198 22940 33190 7010 9820 67580 6699 43750 17100 2838 86130 19130 12080 13470 6443 1749
2022-03-07 5543 654800 37340 42910 139400 515600 150300 138300 321000 211700 57030 349700 100500 96190 964100 18480 10740 28370 86670 11880 10560 70480 34610 1356 4830 33170 22260 14100 16820 23690 14360 2129 34740 12250 18230 12270 3198 23000 33190 7024 9847 67620 6722 43750 17150 2840 86160 19310 12110 13500 6455 1749
2022-03-08 5579 655200 37390 42910 139400 515800 150500 138500 321200 211800 57110 350400 100600 96420 966000 18520 10770 28390 86810 11900 10560 70650 34720 1356 4846 33230 22310 14130 16830 23750 14360 2129 34750 12280 18360 12320 3201 23040 33250 7036 9870 67680 6747 43830 17190 2843 86320 19360 12110 13540 6483 1766

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-02 to 2022-03-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2022-03-01 161630 1009680 14841 30199 35637 11639 38685 123024 4649 99883 2380 135520 25914 15101 44051 6508 155000 21591 111586 21086 63578 17242 6318 18530 13110
2022-03-02 161800 1012000 14870 30230 35700 11650 38740 123300 4683 100200 2401 135600 25970 15130 44170 6524 155200 21610 111900 21110 63710 17360 6331 18570 13120
2022-03-03 161900 1013000 14900 30270 35760 11680 38800 123500 4716 100400 2420 135800 26040 15160 44270 6531 155500 21620 112200 21140 63820 17390 6346 18590 13140
2022-03-04 162100 1015000 14920 30300 35830 11710 38850 123700 4750 100700 2427 136000 26100 15190 44360 6536 155700 21630 112400 21160 63940 17450 6359 18620 13140
2022-03-05 162100 1016000 14950 30300 35860 11730 38900 123700 4783 100700 2428 136000 26150 15210 44360 6536 155900 21640 112700 21190 64050 17450 6372 18650 13150
2022-03-06 162200 1017000 14970 30320 35890 11760 38950 123700 4818 100700 2432 136100 26210 15240 44360 6540 156000 21650 112700 21210 64120 17460 6385 18670 13150
2022-03-07 162300 1017000 14990 30400 36030 11780 39000 124000 4853 101000 2464 136200 26280 15270 44570 6557 156200 21670 112700 21240 64200 17460 6398 18690 13160
2022-03-08 162500 1021000 15020 30440 36070 11810 39050 124200 4889 101300 2472 136600 26330 15300 44680 6581 156500 21690 113000 21260 64400 17530 6410 18720 13170

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-02 to 2022-03-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-03-01 5269 649922 36630 42353 138854 514246 148660 137064 318531 210672 56451 345427 99430 94648 952423 18287 10579 27946 85553 11794 10468 69008 34145 1322 4763 32803 21990 13900 16606 23465 14060 2065 34287 12131 18039 12100 3189 22608 32951 6925 9715 66955 6648 43332 16912 2808 85029 18811 11859 13351 6339 1741
2022-03-02 5311 650700 36710 42370 138900 514400 148900 137300 319500 210800 56540 346200 99500 94880 954700 18360 10620 27960 85710 11820 10500 69250 34260 1326 4778 32870 22040 13930 16630 23550 14090 2070 34630 12160 18070 12180 3205 22700 33000 6946 9729 67000 6680 43490 16950 2814 85250 18910 11960 13390 6370 1739
2022-03-03 5351 651600 36780 42550 139000 514700 149200 137500 319800 210900 56650 346900 99700 95150 957500 18420 10650 28050 85930 11850 10510 69500 34380 1336 4786 32930 22090 13940 16660 23600 14130 2105 34640 12190 18270 12200 3210 22780 33030 6965 9762 67070 6720 43550 17010 2818 85510 19020 11970 13450 6405 1741
2022-03-04 5390 652500 36880 42650 139100 514800 149400 137700 320100 211100 56730 347600 99800 95400 959700 18500 10680 28130 86170 11860 10530 69720 34490 1343 4797 32980 22150 14010 16690 23620 14150 2121 34740 12210 18280 12230 3217 22830 33080 6991 9798 67130 6725 43620 17090 2830 85690 19110 12050 13470 6422 1741
2022-03-05 5421 653100 36920 42760 139100 515000 149600 137900 320600 211200 56820 348300 99900 95640 960200 18530 10710 28150 86230 11860 10530 69910 34500 1352 4797 32990 22150 14010 16690 23630 14170 2145 34740 12210 18280 12230 3219 22830 33100 6991 9799 67160 6725 43660 17090 2830 85820 19110 12070 13480 6423 1742
2022-03-06 5441 653400 36950 42860 139200 515100 149800 138100 320800 211400 56910 349000 100000 95880 960700 18540 10740 28180 86270 11860 10530 70090 34510 1355 4801 33000 22170 14010 16700 23640 14190 2148 34770 12220 18280 12240 3219 22850 33110 6991 9801 67180 6726 43690 17100 2831 85920 19130 12080 13480 6424 1742
2022-03-07 5477 653800 36990 42980 139300 515300 150100 138400 320800 211500 56990 349700 100200 96120 962300 18540 10760 28200 86490 11880 10540 70300 34620 1357 4813 33080 22210 14100 16730 23670 14200 2151 34790 12230 18280 12260 3223 22940 33120 7005 9814 67230 6740 43700 17150 2834 85980 19290 12110 13510 6440 1742
2022-03-08 5520 654500 37040 43020 139300 515400 150300 138600 321000 211600 57060 350400 100300 96360 964400 18560 10780 28280 86680 11900 10550 70490 34710 1357 4834 33160 22260 14130 16770 23720 14220 2152 34800 12260 18370 12290 3232 22980 33190 7023 9850 67290 6759 43750 17190 2839 86190 19350 12120 13540 6473 1757

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths