COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-03-21


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-03-21

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-012022-02-162022-03-022022-02-072021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-072022-03-052022-02-16 --2022-02-082022-01-312021-11-282021-12-062022-02-152022-02-012022-02-282021-12-212022-02-022021-10-292022-02-152022-02-082021-12-162022-03-17 --
Peak daily increment 671 2152 31 50 165 47 306 388 45 281 299 104 65 190 38 376 31 441 47 440 51 17 86 109
Days since peak 48 33 19 42 133 140 86 104 16 33 41 49 113 105 34 48 21 90 47 143 34 41 95 4
Last total 163679 1033729 15432 30575 36330 12148 39374 126933 5430 101703 2881 137978 26995 15451 45095 6664 157904 21817 114221 21408 64697 18053 6449 19133 2169 13445
Last daily increment 168 830 23 46 48 18 15 0 28 0 98 147 58 16 134 26 119 3 3 0 12 0 7 23 0 22
Last week 584 5795 171 130 134 115 158 787 198 287 162 636 309 78 442 28 727 71 599 66 247 179 30 154 416 151
Previous peak date -- --2021-12-032021-12-062021-07-05 --2021-06-082021-06-072021-12-212021-08-302021-12-312021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-12-082021-06-082021-12-092021-06-082021-08-062021-06-292021-06-222021-11-222021-06-062021-12-152021-12-13
Previous peak daily increment 58 50 29 10 98 39 116 13 89 10 22 66 58 59 14 147 16 18 8 13 24
Low between peaks 10 17 3 -1 -30 11 18 23 1 0 12 8 1 5 -2 0 7 0 3

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-03-21

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-282022-02-182022-01-17 --2022-01-292021-12-052022-03-042022-02-222022-02-032022-02-012022-02-062021-11-222022-01-062022-02-162022-01-312021-12-172022-01-282022-02-142022-02-082022-02-09 --2022-01-242021-02-032022-01-072022-03-142022-02-142021-09-262022-01-192021-09-302022-01-242022-01-102021-12-012022-03-172022-02-14 --2021-12-282022-02-192022-01-182021-12-062022-02-242022-01-312021-10-182022-02-072021-10-2512-0305-292022-01-242021-12-172022-02-072022-01-192022-03-172021-12-232022-03-072022-01-272022-02-012022-02-032022-02-192022-02-072022-01-052022-02-072022-03-032022-02-072022-01-312022-02-162021-11-30
Peak daily increment 82 892 162 254 2269 293 223 499 207 152 1212 358 275 2580 41 52 35 79 208 32 5 25 854 92 7 51 25 122 79 44 199 45 202 17 138 38 92 64 24 80 6 25 26 101 22 31 212 165 356 20 149 100 7 78 217 26 237 13 46 48 23 29
Days since peak 52 31 63 51 106 17 27 46 48 43 119 74 33 49 94 52 35 41 40 56 411 73 7 35 176 61 172 56 70 110 4 35 83 30 62 105 25 49 154 42 147 473 661 56 94 42 61 4 88 14 53 48 46 30 42 75 42 18 42 49 33 111
Last total 5763 657595 37254 55965 139471 516543 153892 139662 322092 211924 58276 357634 99890 97347 972634 1201 19093 11114 28547 88206 12139 10714 1319 2833 71860 35160 1356 9349 4834 33216 22385 8150 14659 17016 20019 14258 2184 35205 12328 18589 12336 3236 23078 2232 2230 2410 33178 7157 9949 67366 37603 13729 6975 44050 17380 2875 24748 86905 2949 19520 609 12348 13994 6651 1769
Last daily increment 27 100 39 11447 19 33 154 52 20 59 13 400 9 80 1472 0 55 14 0 185 252 6 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 18 7 4 279 20 12 4 2 7 7 0 61 2 20 0 0 2 9 12 0 5 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 274 8 54 0 22 34 5 0
Last week 125 1717 214 11926 136 471 1147 482 977 305 651 2932 163 612 6253 1 150 143 457 607 269 47 0 22 0 280 14 87 15 77 99 122 562 66 44 42 37 215 39 2 61 10 112 4 0 12 52 54 28 98 198 216 76 141 0 14 529 404 16 164 3 136 174 53 0
Previous peak date2021-10-102021-06-152021-10-122021-07-032021-06-242021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252021-07-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-04 --2021-10-192021-09-212021-10-10 --2021-10-192021-12-092021-09-2704-292021-07-302022-01-122021-09-202021-01-262021-10-2709-092021-09-20 --2021-08-202021-11-192021-09-152021-09-282021-10-132021-10-062021-06-07 --2021-12-022021-09-062021-02-032021-09-2012-0905-20 -- --2021-06-072021-09-22 --2022-01-122021-10-202021-11-152021-06-222021-02-0112-032021-12-222021-10-1312-102021-10-12 --2021-09-202021-07-282021-10-04 --
Previous peak daily increment 15 2009 40 126 647 4974 1725 630 731 548 220 390 271 38 118 120 140 38 51 11 115 16790 123 50 26 21 38 41 141 66 15 17 13 29 1919 48 29 76 27 42 3 23 152 591 29 17 100 23 1783 878 9 44 43 68 28
Low between peaks 5 88 18 25 -82 5 22 106 26 56 17 90 0 7 6 53 3 0 0 30 23 0 9 1 18 4 15 3 -2 3 0 3 4 1 16 0 1 1 9 -1 -6 10 4 1 0 37 55 1 7 11 2 11

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-22 to 2022-03-28

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-03-21 163679 1033729 15432 30575 36330 12148 39374 126933 5430 101703 2881 137978 26995 15451 45095 6664 157904 21817 114221 21408 64697 18053 6449 19133 2169 13445
2022-03-22 163900 1035000 15470 30580 36420 12170 39410 127400 5467 102100 2935 138200 27050 15460 45100 6680 158000 21830 114500 21420 64770 18130 6453 19160 2169 13480
2022-03-23 164000 1036000 15500 30610 36470 12210 39480 127700 5519 102200 2979 138400 27110 15460 45240 6689 158000 21840 114700 21460 64800 18220 6458 19210 2236 13510
2022-03-24 164100 1037000 15530 30640 36500 12240 39530 127900 5563 102200 3008 138500 27160 15470 45300 6693 158100 21860 114900 21490 64830 18280 6463 19240 2363 13530
2022-03-25 164200 1038000 15550 30640 36530 12260 39570 128100 5602 102400 3043 138600 27210 15480 45370 6698 158200 21880 115000 21510 64850 18330 6467 19280 2363 13550
2022-03-26 164200 1039000 15580 30660 36550 12290 39610 128200 5640 102400 3060 138600 27260 15480 45370 6700 158200 21890 115100 21530 64880 18330 6471 19310 2363 13560
2022-03-27 164200 1039000 15600 30660 36560 12310 39650 128200 5676 102400 3077 138600 27310 15490 45370 6700 158200 21890 115100 21540 64880 18330 6475 19340 2363 13570
2022-03-28 164400 1040000 15620 30690 36600 12330 39680 128200 5712 102400 3113 138800 27360 15490 45460 6725 158300 21900 115100 21550 64880 18330 6478 19360 2363 13590

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-22 to 2022-03-28

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-03-21 5763 657595 37254 55965 139471 516543 153892 139662 322092 211924 58276 357634 99890 97347 972634 19093 11114 28547 88206 12139 10714 2833 35160 9349 33216 22385 8150 14659 17016 20019 14258 2184 35205 12328 12336 23078 33178 7157 9949 67366 37603 13729 6975 44050 24748 86905 19520 12348 13994 6651
2022-03-22 5784 658200 37320 55970 139500 516600 154100 139700 322400 212000 58360 358100 100000 97450 973800 19190 11140 28550 88410 12200 10740 2840 35230 9397 33250 22420 8150 14660 17050 20040 14280 2190 35230 12350 12350 23110 33200 7174 9980 67420 37610 13840 7007 44150 24800 87040 19600 12370 14040 6687
2022-03-23 5830 658600 37420 55970 139500 516600 154600 139900 322800 212100 58420 358600 100100 97600 976200 19220 11180 28820 88650 12270 10760 2840 35310 9494 33280 22470 8174 14660 17080 20260 14300 2207 35450 12370 12360 23140 33210 7188 10030 67460 37610 13920 7041 44240 24960 87210 19660 12400 14090 6714
2022-03-24 5863 659100 37490 56420 139500 516700 154900 140000 323200 212100 58490 359000 100100 97720 978000 19280 11220 28820 88830 12350 10760 2840 35400 9506 33300 22480 8179 14680 17100 20370 14310 2221 35460 12390 12370 23200 33220 7200 10040 67490 37620 14120 7079 44280 24960 87340 19710 12440 14120 6741
2022-03-25 5890 659500 37540 56630 139500 516700 155200 140100 323300 212200 58570 359400 100200 97830 978500 19330 11250 28820 88970 12410 10790 2840 35460 9543 33310 22520 8179 14690 17120 20410 14320 2226 35520 12400 12370 23230 33230 7202 10050 67510 37620 14170 7091 44310 24960 87340 19750 12500 14170 6750
2022-03-26 5916 659900 37570 56630 139500 516800 155500 140100 323500 212300 58640 359800 100200 97940 979000 19340 11280 28820 89030 12470 10790 2847 35470 9543 33310 22520 8187 14690 17120 20430 14340 2233 35530 12400 12370 23240 33240 7213 10060 67530 37620 14270 7091 44330 24960 87390 19770 12500 14170 6750
2022-03-27 5938 659900 37580 56630 139500 516800 155700 140200 323600 212300 58720 360100 100300 98040 979000 19340 11300 28820 89030 12530 10790 2852 35470 9548 33310 22520 8188 14690 17120 20430 14340 2233 35530 12400 12370 23240 33240 7213 10060 67540 37620 14300 7091 44350 24960 87400 19770 12500 14170 6750
2022-03-28 5959 660000 37600 61580 139600 516800 155900 140300 323600 212400 58800 360500 100300 98140 979900 19380 11330 28820 89240 12620 10790 2855 35510 9548 33310 22520 8200 14830 17140 20430 14350 2233 35550 12410 12430 23250 33250 7229 10060 67540 37630 14300 7099 44350 24960 87570 19830 12520 14210 6752

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-22 to 2022-03-28

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-03-21 163679 1033729 15432 30575 36330 12148 39374 126933 5430 101703 2881 137978 26995 15451 45095 6664 157904 21817 114221 21408 64697 18053 6449 19133 2169 13445
2022-03-22 163900 1035000 15470 30580 36360 12170 39400 127100 5461 102000 2907 138100 27050 15470 45130 6673 158000 21830 114400 21420 64760 18110 6454 19160 2172 13480
2022-03-23 164000 1036000 15500 30610 36390 12200 39440 127400 5502 102000 2936 138300 27090 15480 45270 6679 158200 21840 114600 21430 64810 18200 6458 19190 2227 13500
2022-03-24 164200 1037000 15530 30630 36410 12220 39470 127600 5540 102100 2957 138400 27150 15490 45330 6682 158300 21850 114800 21450 64860 18250 6462 19220 2462 13510
2022-03-25 164300 1038000 15550 30640 36430 12240 39500 127800 5578 102300 2977 138500 27200 15510 45390 6687 158400 21870 114900 21460 64900 18310 6465 19250 2464 13530
2022-03-26 164300 1039000 15580 30650 36450 12260 39530 127900 5627 102300 2985 138500 27240 15520 45390 6691 158500 21880 115000 21480 64940 18310 6469 19280 2464 13540
2022-03-27 164300 1039000 15600 30660 36460 12280 39570 127900 5673 102300 2992 138600 27280 15530 45410 6694 158600 21890 115100 21490 64960 18320 6473 19310 2464 13560
2022-03-28 164400 1040000 15620 30700 36520 12300 39600 128100 5702 102400 3053 138700 27340 15550 45460 6717 158700 21890 115100 21500 64980 18330 6477 19340 2464 13590

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-22 to 2022-03-28

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-03-21 5763 657595 37254 55965 139471 516543 153892 139662 322092 211924 58276 357634 99890 97347 972634 19093 11114 28547 88206 12139 10714 2833 35160 9349 33216 22385 8150 14659 17016 20019 14258 2184 35205 12328 12336 23078 33178 7157 9949 67366 37603 13729 6975 44050 24748 86905 19520 12348 13994 6651
2022-03-22 5789 657800 37280 58800 139500 516600 154100 139700 322100 212000 58320 358100 99910 97440 973500 19150 11140 28550 88250 12210 10730 2832 35210 9354 33240 22400 8149 14730 17040 20080 14270 2187 35200 12340 12350 23080 33190 7176 9960 67390 37600 13740 6990 44110 24740 87010 19550 12350 14040 6677
2022-03-23 5816 658200 37310 58810 139500 516600 154400 139800 322400 212000 58400 358600 99940 97540 975200 19170 11170 28830 88420 12230 10750 2833 35280 9448 33280 22440 8180 14740 17060 20140 14290 2199 35400 12350 12360 23110 33210 7189 9990 67420 37610 13790 7020 44170 24980 87120 19590 12380 14090 6701
2022-03-24 5843 658600 37370 59070 139500 516700 154700 139900 322700 212100 58490 359100 99970 97640 976800 19230 11200 28830 88570 12250 10750 2833 35360 9450 33300 22460 8189 14820 17080 20170 14300 2210 35410 12370 12360 23160 33220 7200 10000 67440 37610 13980 7058 44200 25000 87220 19630 12410 14130 6726
2022-03-25 5868 658900 37390 59210 139500 516700 154900 140000 322700 212100 58580 359500 99970 97740 977500 19280 11220 28840 88700 12260 10780 2834 35420 9458 33320 22490 8210 14850 17100 20180 14310 2215 35470 12370 12370 23180 33230 7203 10010 67450 37620 14000 7068 44230 25000 87220 19670 12470 14180 6734
2022-03-26 5883 659400 37410 59310 139500 516700 155200 140100 323100 212100 58650 360000 99990 97840 978100 19290 11240 28850 88760 12270 10790 2843 35430 9460 33330 22500 8221 14860 17100 20190 14330 2222 35480 12380 12370 23190 33240 7212 10020 67460 37630 14030 7073 44240 25010 87290 19680 12480 14180 6738
2022-03-27 5894 659500 37420 59440 139600 516800 155400 140200 323200 212200 58760 360400 99990 97930 978200 19300 11270 28850 88780 12270 10790 2860 35440 9466 33340 22510 8226 14870 17110 20190 14330 2223 35500 12380 12380 23200 33250 7212 10030 67470 37630 14040 7077 44280 25030 87350 19690 12480 14180 6742
2022-03-28 5915 659700 37430 60240 139600 516800 155600 140200 323200 212200 58810 360900 100000 98030 978500 19350 11290 28860 89040 12330 10790 2863 35490 9466 33370 22520 8234 14920 17130 20190 14340 2226 35520 12400 12420 23230 33260 7228 10040 67470 37640 14040 7097 44280 25040 87430 19790 12500 14220 6750

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths