COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-04-06


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-04-06

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --2022-02-102022-03-022022-02-072021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-142022-03-042022-02-142022-03-072022-02-082022-01-312021-11-282021-12-062022-02-152022-02-012022-02-282021-12-212022-02-022021-10-292021-01-202022-02-082021-12-162022-03-172022-03-20
Peak daily increment 2126 31 50 165 47 306 382 48 279 67 299 104 65 190 38 376 31 441 47 440 137 17 86 186 57
Days since peak 55 35 58 149 156 102 113 33 51 30 57 65 129 121 50 64 37 106 63 159 441 57 111 20 17
Last total 169095 1050794 16097 30908 36655 12457 39816 131036 5813 102541 3307 139755 27892 15646 45647 6824 160253 22079 115472 21813 65147 18365 6517 19482 2667 13600
Last daily increment 2947 1423 36 0 19 15 32 668 15 0 53 115 76 12 36 19 150 21 77 24 18 0 5 20 149 12
Last week 3716 5636 232 82 126 86 124 1328 115 323 163 616 382 83 177 71 870 71 299 118 132 0 30 130 149 36
Previous peak date2022-02-01 --2021-12-032021-12-062021-07-05 --2021-06-08 --2021-12-212021-08-302021-12-312021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-12-082021-06-082021-12-092021-06-082021-08-062021-06-2904-182021-11-222021-06-062021-12-152021-12-13
Previous peak daily increment 671 58 50 29 10 39 116 14 89 10 22 66 58 59 14 147 101 18 8 13 24
Low between peaks 10 17 3 -1 11 18 2 23 1 0 12 8 1 5 -2 -1 7 0 3 10

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-04-06

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-012022-02-112022-01-172022-03-212022-01-292022-03-252022-03-052022-02-222022-02-032022-02-012022-02-062021-11-222022-01-062022-02-162022-03-292021-12-172022-01-282022-02-142022-03-312022-02-092022-03-212022-01-242022-02-072022-03-132022-03-142022-02-142021-09-262021-04-032021-09-302022-01-242022-04-012022-01-192022-03-172022-02-14 --2021-12-282022-02-192022-01-182021-12-062022-02-242022-02-012021-10-182022-02-072021-10-252022-04-0105-292022-01-242021-12-172022-02-072022-01-192022-01-132021-10-20 --2022-01-272022-03-072022-02-032022-03-102022-02-072022-01-052022-02-072022-03-032022-02-072022-01-312021-10-062021-11-30
Peak daily increment 209 885 162 9704 254 3281 301 222 499 207 152 1212 358 275 733 41 52 35 79 208 137 32 5 26 777 92 7 52 25 122 775 43 51 45 202 17 138 38 101 64 24 80 6 544 26 101 22 31 212 154 653 149 94 7 91 217 26 237 13 46 48 29 29
Days since peak 5 54 79 16 67 12 32 43 62 64 59 135 90 49 8 110 68 51 6 56 16 72 58 24 23 51 192 368 188 72 5 77 20 51 99 46 78 121 41 64 170 58 163 5 677 72 110 58 77 83 168 69 30 62 27 58 91 58 34 58 65 182 127
Last total 6495 660980 37825 56822 139687 521530 155464 140451 323403 212396 59422 363175 100070 98275 983817 1227 19374 11296 29681 89218 11982 10794 1333 2871 73291 35787 1370 9454 4892 33443 23455 8396 15028 17162 20112 14337 2208 35554 12429 18879 12402 3249 23257 2232 3408 2426 33278 7333 10136 67563 38037 14009 7224 44370 17650 2893 25159 87531 3016 19788 618 12537 14335 6741 1796
Last daily increment 33 194 43 13 9 43 43 44 85 24 52 285 3 41 1241 0 12 6 413 67 2 2 0 0 0 50 3 9 5 9 22 1 0 8 0 3 1 69 10 1 0 0 18 0 0 0 14 18 45 7 0 0 77 22 0 10 147 47 0 34 0 29 1 -3 0
Last week 487 958 172 242 66 349 375 247 387 189 173 1827 38 242 3179 0 84 66 413 271 8 25 0 25 264 230 3 9 19 66 1005 104 133 35 29 21 6 113 21 3 19 2 50 0 1178 0 46 59 45 54 0 0 80 95 59 10 147 161 0 96 3 66 33 -90 5
Previous peak date2022-01-282021-06-152021-10-122021-10-072021-06-242021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252021-07-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-042022-01-312021-10-192021-09-212021-10-102022-01-282021-10-1912-092021-09-2704-292021-07-302022-01-122021-09-202021-01-2612-1109-092021-09-202022-01-102021-10-272021-11-192021-09-152022-01-242021-10-132021-01-082021-06-07 --2021-12-022021-09-082021-02-032021-09-2012-092021-06-28 -- --2021-06-072021-09-22 --12-182021-04-072021-11-142021-06-222021-09-2412-032021-12-222021-10-1312-102021-10-12 --2021-09-202021-07-282021-03-12 --
Previous peak daily increment 82 2009 40 166 647 4974 1725 630 731 548 220 390 271 2588 38 118 120 74 140 160 51 11 115 15341 123 50 318 21 38 79 43 141 66 75 17 20 29 1919 48 29 76 27 0 3 23 194 1352 29 17 70 23 1781 878 9 44 43 68 121
Low between peaks 23 88 18 -143 25 -82 5 22 106 26 56 17 90 46 0 7 6 -6 53 4 3 0 0 42 23 0 6 1 18 13 4 16 3 -2 0 0 3 4 1 16 0 -9 1 9 4 -11 4 11 0 37 55 1 7 11 2 -116

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-04-06 169095 1050794 16097 30908 36655 12457 39816 131036 5813 102541 3307 139755 27892 15646 45647 6824 160253 22079 115472 21813 65147 6517 19482 2667 13600
2022-04-07 169100 1052000 16140 30970 36680 12480 39840 131300 5818 102600 3354 139900 27950 15660 45710 6824 160400 22100 115700 21830 65200 6521 19500 2667 13610
2022-04-08 169700 1053000 16160 30970 36710 12510 39880 131300 5825 102900 3395 140000 27970 15670 45770 6843 160500 22110 115800 21830 65250 6525 19520 2677 13620
2022-04-09 170200 1054000 16200 30970 36710 12530 39910 131500 5832 103000 3401 140100 28010 15680 45780 6843 160600 22120 115900 21840 65290 6529 19540 2677 13620
2022-04-10 170700 1054000 16220 30970 36720 12550 39940 131500 5839 103000 3401 140100 28050 15690 45790 6843 160700 22130 115900 21850 65310 6533 19560 2703 13630
2022-04-11 171400 1055000 16240 31030 36760 12570 39970 131500 5845 103000 3468 140200 28090 15700 45820 6849 160800 22130 115900 21870 65330 6536 19580 2703 13640
2022-04-12 172200 1056000 16290 31030 36780 12580 40000 131800 5851 103000 3472 140400 28140 15720 45890 6858 161000 22150 116000 21890 65350 6540 19600 2703 13640
2022-04-13 172800 1057000 16320 31030 36800 12600 40030 132300 5857 103000 3523 140500 28190 15730 45930 6872 161100 22170 116000 21910 65370 6544 19620 2921 13660

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2022-04-06 6495 660980 37825 56822 139687 521530 155464 140451 323403 212396 59422 363175 100070 98275 983817 19374 11296 29681 89218 10794 2871 73291 35787 33443 23455 8396 15028 17162 20112 14337 35554 12429 23257 3408 33278 7333 10136 67563 7224 44370 17650 25159 87531 19788 12537 14335
2022-04-07 6521 661400 37920 59580 139700 521600 155600 140500 323600 212400 59480 363600 100100 98320 985100 19410 11300 29680 89390 10800 2871 73720 35830 33470 23480 8396 15130 17190 20120 14350 35550 12450 23280 3408 33280 7346 10140 67590 7276 44410 17680 25180 87640 19820 12560 14420
2022-04-08 6583 661800 37990 60980 139700 521700 156000 140500 323800 212500 59680 364000 100100 98380 986200 19440 11310 29710 89500 10820 2871 74060 35890 33490 23540 8459 15160 17210 20130 14360 35600 12450 23310 3563 33290 7350 10150 67620 7302 44440 17680 25180 87640 19850 12600 14480
2022-04-09 6605 661900 38020 61900 139800 521800 156300 140600 323900 212500 59810 364400 100100 98440 986400 19460 11310 29720 89530 10820 2887 74290 35890 33490 23570 8459 15170 17210 20130 14360 35600 12450 23310 3563 33290 7352 10150 67630 7321 44460 17690 25180 87690 19860 12600 14500
2022-04-10 6611 662000 38050 62360 139800 521900 156500 140600 323900 212600 59910 364700 100100 98490 986500 19470 11320 29760 89550 10830 2887 74480 35890 33490 23590 8459 15180 17210 20130 14370 35610 12450 23320 3563 33300 7352 10160 67640 7339 44460 17700 25180 87700 19870 12610 14500
2022-04-11 6644 662100 38090 62900 139800 522000 156700 140600 323900 212600 60010 365000 100200 98530 987100 19490 11320 29850 89640 10830 2891 74650 35950 33500 23620 8459 15330 17220 20130 14380 35620 12460 23340 3563 33310 7366 10170 67650 7367 44470 17700 25180 87750 19890 12620 14530
2022-04-12 6681 662300 38140 63180 139800 522000 156900 140700 324000 212600 60080 365400 100200 98580 987700 19510 11330 29850 89720 10840 2892 74790 35980 33530 23650 8459 15330 17230 20130 14380 35620 12470 23340 3563 33310 7385 10170 67660 7389 44500 17780 25190 87820 19920 12620 14550
2022-04-13 6710 662500 38160 63180 139800 522100 157100 140700 324000 212700 60150 365600 100200 98620 988900 19520 11340 30370 89790 10840 2893 74930 36030 33540 23680 8468 15330 17240 20130 14390 35710 12470 23350 3563 33320 7401 10250 67670 7434 44520 17780 25200 87870 19950 12640 14560

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-04-06 169095 1050794 16097 30908 36655 12457 39816 131036 5813 102541 3307 139755 27892 15646 45647 6824 160253 22079 115472 21813 65147 6517 19482 2667 13600
2022-04-07 169900 1052000 16140 30970 36680 12470 39840 131600 5831 102500 3335 139900 27950 15660 45680 6837 160400 22100 115600 21900 65170 6521 19500 2675 13610
2022-04-08 170200 1053000 16180 30970 36700 12490 39870 131600 5858 102800 3367 140000 28000 15670 45720 6861 160500 22110 115700 21940 65200 6525 19520 2684 13620
2022-04-09 170400 1054000 16220 30970 36700 12510 39900 131900 5882 102800 3374 140000 28040 15680 45720 6861 160600 22120 115700 21940 65230 6528 19530 2684 13620
2022-04-10 170500 1054000 16240 30970 36710 12530 39920 131900 5903 102800 3376 140100 28090 15690 45730 6861 160700 22130 115700 21940 65240 6532 19550 2690 13620
2022-04-11 170700 1055000 16260 31030 36740 12550 39950 131900 5924 102800 3419 140200 28140 15700 45760 6870 160800 22140 115800 21950 65250 6535 19560 2699 13640
2022-04-12 171100 1056000 16320 31030 36760 12560 39970 132200 5948 102900 3432 140300 28190 15710 45820 6878 161000 22150 115800 21970 65280 6539 19580 2705 13650
2022-04-13 171600 1057000 16360 31040 36780 12580 40000 132500 5976 102900 3485 140400 28250 15720 45870 6886 161100 22180 115900 21980 65310 6543 19600 2846 13670

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2022-04-06 6495 660980 37825 56822 139687 521530 155464 140451 323403 212396 59422 363175 100070 98275 983817 19374 11296 29681 89218 10794 2871 73291 35787 33443 23455 8396 15028 17162 20112 14337 35554 12429 23257 3408 33278 7333 10136 67563 7224 44370 17650 25159 87531 19788 12537 14335
2022-04-07 6531 661200 37890 57830 139700 521700 155600 140500 323600 212400 59510 363500 100100 98310 984500 19380 11300 29690 89290 10790 2871 73400 35840 33460 23470 8385 15070 17170 20140 14340 35540 12440 23270 3422 33280 7351 10140 67570 7246 44390 17650 25210 87580 19810 12540 14340
2022-04-08 6719 661500 37940 58420 139700 522000 155700 140500 323700 212500 59610 363700 100100 98350 985300 19400 11310 29690 89380 10810 2872 73620 35890 33470 23710 8453 15080 17180 20180 14350 35580 12440 23280 3917 33290 7354 10140 67590 7251 44410 17650 25220 87580 19830 12580 14370
2022-04-09 6747 661600 37960 58880 139700 522100 155700 140600 323800 212500 59680 364000 100100 98390 985400 19410 11320 29690 89390 10810 2888 73780 35890 33470 23730 8457 15100 17180 20190 14350 35580 12440 23280 3942 33300 7355 10140 67590 7254 44420 17660 25230 87590 19830 12580 14370
2022-04-10 6760 661600 37970 59010 139700 522300 155800 140600 323800 212500 59760 364300 100100 98430 985500 19410 11330 29700 89410 10810 2891 73910 35890 33470 23770 8460 15100 17180 20200 14360 35590 12440 23280 3963 33300 7355 10140 67600 7257 44420 17660 25240 87600 19830 12580 14370
2022-04-11 6787 661700 37990 59160 139800 522400 155900 140600 323800 212600 59810 364500 100100 98470 986000 19440 11340 29710 89530 10810 2894 74040 35940 33490 23790 8466 15260 17190 20200 14370 35610 12450 23300 3963 33300 7368 10150 67610 7268 44430 17660 25240 87640 19860 12600 14410
2022-04-12 6822 662000 38020 59240 139800 522500 155900 140700 323900 212600 59860 364800 100100 98500 986700 19480 11350 29710 89590 10830 2896 74280 35980 33510 23800 8466 15270 17210 20210 14370 35610 12450 23310 3963 33310 7384 10150 67620 7288 44460 17710 25250 87760 19880 12600 14440
2022-04-13 6836 662200 38050 59430 139800 522600 156000 140700 323900 212600 59950 365100 100100 98540 988100 19490 11360 30040 89710 10830 2897 74380 36010 33520 23820 8486 15300 17210 20240 14380 35690 12460 23320 3963 33320 7399 10190 67630 7321 44480 17720 25270 87830 19900 12620 14470

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths