COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-04-27


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-04-27

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-062022-02-102022-04-222022-02-072021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-142022-03-302022-04-202022-04-142022-02-082022-01-312021-11-282021-12-062022-02-152022-02-012022-02-282021-12-212022-03-312021-10-292021-01-202021-11-202022-04-152022-03-172022-03-20
Peak daily increment 2175 2126 915 50 165 47 306 382 50 209 79 299 104 65 190 38 376 31 441 48 440 137 18 36 161 60
Days since peak 21 76 5 79 170 177 123 134 28 7 13 78 86 150 142 71 85 58 127 27 180 462 158 12 41 38
Last total 174448 1070340 18100 31382 36887 12676 40123 135078 6125 104227 3638 142389 29022 15808 46162 7054 163113 22255 115998 22226 65456 18689 6586 19873 2932 13701
Last daily increment 304 1217 24 0 8 2 9 589 9 0 0 145 46 7 29 26 186 0 21 64 26 0 1 11 61 11
Last week 1416 5514 1043 63 49 50 65 1157 78 506 0 761 214 43 138 61 849 37 99 99 53 0 18 70 61 29
Previous peak date2022-02-01 --2021-12-032021-12-062021-07-05 --2021-06-08 --2021-12-212022-02-142021-12-312021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-12-082021-06-082021-12-092021-06-082022-02-022021-06-2904-1812-042021-12-162021-12-152021-12-13
Previous peak daily increment 671 58 50 29 10 39 279 13 89 10 22 66 58 59 47 147 101 51 86 13 24
Low between peaks 84 10 17 3 -1 11 35 4 23 1 0 12 8 1 12 -2 -1 0 16 3 10

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-04-27

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-012022-02-112022-04-132022-03-212022-01-292022-03-252022-03-042022-02-222022-02-032022-02-012022-02-062021-11-222022-01-062022-02-162022-01-312021-12-172022-01-282021-10-102022-04-202022-02-092022-03-212021-09-272022-02-072022-03-132022-03-182022-02-142022-04-202021-04-032021-09-302022-01-242022-04-012021-12-012022-03-172022-02-142022-01-242021-12-282022-04-122022-01-182021-03-092022-02-242022-02-01 --2022-02-072021-10-252022-04-0105-292022-01-242021-05-262022-04-132022-01-192022-01-132021-10-202022-04-062022-01-272022-02-012022-02-032022-02-232022-02-072022-01-052022-02-072022-03-032022-02-072021-07-282022-02-142021-11-30
Peak daily increment 239 885 188 9531 254 3594 300 222 499 207 152 1212 358 275 2583 41 52 113 55 208 157 49 5 25 811 92 7 52 25 122 763 44 72 45 73 202 34 138 124 101 64 80 6 933 26 101 92 216 212 156 653 20 149 100 7 90 217 26 237 13 46 65 23 29
Days since peak 26 75 14 37 88 33 54 64 83 85 80 156 111 70 86 131 89 199 7 77 37 212 79 45 40 72 7 389 209 93 26 147 41 72 93 120 15 99 414 62 85 79 184 26 698 93 336 14 98 104 189 21 90 85 83 63 79 112 79 55 79 273 72 148
Last total 7164 663350 39056 57468 139785 523693 156199 141041 324221 212778 60215 367850 100351 98736 992740 1251 19559 11377 29951 90168 12142 10837 1340 2906 73830 36343 1406 9529 4923 33592 23553 8597 15413 17240 20225 14411 2282 35779 12499 18922 12436 3354 23405 2232 3436 2476 33416 7445 10752 67823 38355 14219 7499 44629 17734 2912 25622 88028 3030 20202 629 12680 14411 6851 1812
Last daily increment 52 242 110 81 2 39 36 17 48 9 20 158 3 16 800 4 14 2 99 32 1 0 5 0 0 132 11 19 1 8 18 0 0 5 10 8 0 66 5 5 0 32 42 0 0 1 9 0 68 20 0 0 13 13 0 11 38 15 0 15 1 18 0 6 0
Last week 225 599 360 143 26 1577 184 122 188 63 159 1005 75 91 2061 4 30 11 99 316 81 12 7 10 133 132 11 19 5 33 34 73 116 20 28 20 4 66 17 11 12 92 42 0 3 6 53 9 68 76 0 0 21 51 0 11 38 97 0 78 4 36 9 29 5
Previous peak date2022-01-282021-06-152022-01-172021-10-072021-06-242021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252021-07-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-04 --2021-10-192021-09-2109-152022-02-082021-10-192021-12-0904-2004-292021-07-302022-01-122021-09-202021-01-2612-1109-092021-09-202022-01-102021-08-202021-11-192021-09-152021-07-152021-10-132021-01-082021-06-0712-102021-12-022021-09-082021-10-192021-09-2012-0905-20 -- --12-162022-02-07 --12-182021-04-072021-11-152021-06-222021-02-0112-032021-12-222021-10-1312-102021-10-12 --2021-09-2012-072021-10-04 --
Previous peak daily increment 82 2009 162 166 647 4974 1725 630 731 548 220 390 271 38 118 130 79 140 38 106 11 117 15341 123 50 318 21 38 79 41 141 66 14 17 20 29 63 1919 48 17 76 27 42 31 31 194 1352 29 17 100 23 1778 878 9 44 43 61 28
Low between peaks 21 88 -220 -143 25 -82 5 22 106 26 56 17 90 0 7 -158 -6 53 5 0 0 0 -556 23 0 6 1 18 7 4 19 3 3 -2 0 0 8 3 4 16 0 -5 -81 1 4 -11 10 4 1 0 37 55 1 7 11 -44 11

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSKNOCH
2022-04-27 174448 1070340 18100 31382 36887 12676 40123 135078 6125 104227 142389 29022 15808 46162 7054 163113 22255 115998 22226 65456 19873 2932 13701
2022-04-28 175400 1071000 18170 31460 36910 12690 40140 135300 6138 104200 142500 29060 15820 46190 7064 163200 22280 116100 22250 65490 19880 3034 13710
2022-04-29 175800 1073000 18230 31470 36920 12700 40170 135500 6160 104300 142600 29100 15830 46220 7070 163400 22290 116100 22270 65510 19890 3045 13710
2022-04-30 175900 1073000 18280 31470 36930 12720 40190 135500 6177 104300 142700 29130 15840 46220 7070 163500 22290 116100 22280 65520 19900 3053 13710
2022-05-01 176000 1073000 18310 31470 36940 12730 40210 135500 6192 104300 142700 29170 15840 46220 7070 163600 22290 116200 22280 65530 19910 3079 13710
2022-05-02 176300 1074000 18340 31470 36950 12740 40230 135800 6206 104300 142800 29200 15850 46260 7085 163700 22300 116200 22280 65540 19910 3125 13720
2022-05-03 176700 1075000 18380 31530 36970 12750 40240 135900 6219 104500 143000 29230 15860 46300 7100 163800 22310 116200 22300 65540 19920 3137 13730
2022-05-04 176900 1076000 18420 31530 36970 12760 40260 136400 6232 104600 143100 29270 15870 46330 7122 164000 22320 116200 22350 65560 19930 3137 13740

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WV
2022-04-27 7164 663350 39056 57468 139785 523693 156199 141041 324221 212778 60215 367850 100351 98736 992740 19559 29951 90168 12142 73830 36343 33592 23553 8597 15413 17240 20225 14411 35779 3354 23405 33416 10752 67823 7499 44629 25622 88028 20202 12680 6851
2022-04-28 7195 663500 39140 57520 139800 523800 156200 141100 324300 212800 60240 368000 100400 98750 993300 19560 29950 90180 12140 73930 36360 33610 23550 8616 15460 17250 20230 14420 35790 3354 23410 33420 10750 67820 7548 44660 25640 88080 20250 12680 6880
2022-04-29 7228 663700 39190 57590 139800 523800 156200 141100 324300 212800 60320 368200 100400 98780 994100 19570 29970 90320 12160 73960 36380 33620 23600 8700 15460 17250 20230 14420 35790 3357 23410 33420 10750 67830 7578 44670 25680 88130 20290 12700 6885
2022-04-30 7240 663700 39250 57640 139800 523800 156300 141100 324400 212900 60370 368300 100400 98800 994200 19570 29970 90330 12160 74000 36390 33620 23610 8700 15470 17250 20230 14420 35800 3360 23410 33420 10750 67830 7586 44680 25710 88140 20290 12700 6892
2022-05-01 7259 663800 39270 57690 139800 523800 156300 141200 324400 212900 60410 368400 100400 98820 994200 19570 29970 90330 12160 74040 36400 33620 23630 8711 15470 17250 20230 14420 35810 3363 23410 33420 10750 67840 7591 44690 25740 88140 20290 12700 6907
2022-05-02 7297 663900 39280 57740 139800 523800 156300 141200 324400 212900 60440 368600 100400 98830 994500 19570 29990 90350 12160 74080 36410 33630 23660 8711 15580 17250 20240 14430 35820 3383 23410 33440 10760 67850 7606 44690 25750 88150 20320 12700 6907
2022-05-03 7352 664100 39320 57780 139800 523800 156300 141200 324500 212900 60470 368700 100400 98850 994800 19580 29990 90460 12180 74130 36410 33630 23660 8711 15590 17260 20240 14440 35820 3399 23410 33450 10760 67870 7613 44700 25770 88170 20340 12700 6926
2022-05-04 7391 664300 39410 57820 139800 523800 156300 141200 324500 212900 60500 368800 100400 98870 995600 19590 30130 90510 12180 74180 36530 33640 23690 8711 15590 17260 20260 14450 35900 3428 23450 33450 10840 67880 7622 44710 25780 88190 20360 12720 6926

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSKNOCH
2022-04-27 174448 1070340 18100 31382 36887 12676 40123 135078 6125 104227 142389 29022 15808 46162 7054 163113 22255 115998 22226 65456 19873 2932 13701
2022-04-28 174900 1072000 18160 31450 36890 12680 40140 135400 6139 104200 142500 29060 15820 46180 7067 163300 22270 116000 22240 65470 19890 2921 13710
2022-04-29 175200 1073000 18250 31450 36900 12690 40150 135500 6150 104300 142700 29090 15820 46200 7071 163400 22280 116100 22260 65480 19910 2926 13710
2022-04-30 175200 1074000 18290 31450 36900 12700 40170 135500 6163 104300 142700 29120 15830 46200 7071 163500 22280 116100 22270 65490 19930 2927 13710
2022-05-01 175200 1074000 18340 31450 36910 12710 40180 135500 6174 104300 142700 29140 15830 46200 7071 163600 22280 116100 22270 65490 19940 2931 13710
2022-05-02 175300 1074000 18380 31460 36920 12720 40200 135700 6184 104400 142900 29190 15840 46220 7083 163700 22290 116100 22270 65500 19960 2936 13720
2022-05-03 175600 1075000 18430 31520 36940 12730 40210 135800 6194 104400 143000 29240 15850 46280 7100 163800 22290 116100 22310 65520 19970 2938 13730
2022-05-04 176100 1076000 18480 31520 36940 12740 40220 136200 6204 104600 143200 29280 15850 46300 7116 164000 22300 116100 22340 65540 19990 3006 13730

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WV
2022-04-27 7164 663350 39056 57468 139785 523693 156199 141041 324221 212778 60215 367850 100351 98736 992740 19559 29951 90168 12142 73830 36343 33592 23553 8597 15413 17240 20225 14411 35779 3354 23405 33416 10752 67823 7499 44629 25622 88028 20202 12680 6851
2022-04-28 7215 663500 39160 57530 139800 524000 156200 141100 324300 212800 60260 368000 100400 98750 993100 19560 29950 90180 12150 73870 36350 33600 23550 8598 15420 17250 20230 14420 35780 3375 23410 33420 10750 67840 7504 44650 25640 88050 20230 12680 6872
2022-04-29 7245 663500 39210 57590 139800 524200 156300 141100 324300 212800 60300 368200 100400 98760 993500 19570 29960 90320 12180 73910 36370 33610 23580 8679 15440 17250 20240 14420 35780 3384 23410 33430 10760 67840 7518 44660 25660 88090 20250 12690 6879
2022-04-30 7255 663600 39270 57640 139800 524300 156300 141100 324400 212800 60340 368300 100400 98780 993600 19570 30000 90330 12180 73950 36370 33610 23590 8680 15440 17250 20240 14420 35780 3392 23410 33430 10760 67850 7520 44670 25680 88100 20260 12690 6884
2022-05-01 7266 663600 39300 57690 139800 524400 156300 141100 324400 212800 60360 368500 100400 98790 993600 19570 30010 90330 12180 73990 36370 33610 23620 8685 15440 17250 20240 14420 35790 3400 23410 33430 10770 67850 7521 44670 25690 88110 20260 12690 6890
2022-05-02 7286 663700 39310 57730 139800 524600 156400 141100 324400 212900 60370 368600 100400 98800 993800 19580 30060 90350 12190 74030 36390 33620 23620 8686 15550 17250 20240 14430 35790 3415 23410 33440 10780 67870 7536 44670 25700 88120 20270 12700 6890
2022-05-03 7331 663800 39340 57770 139800 524700 156400 141200 324400 212900 60390 368800 100400 98810 994200 19590 30070 90440 12200 74120 36400 33630 23650 8686 15550 17260 20250 14440 35800 3425 23410 33450 10790 67880 7553 44700 25710 88150 20300 12700 6898
2022-05-04 7371 664000 39410 57820 139800 524800 156400 141200 324500 212900 60400 369000 100400 98830 994900 19600 30130 90500 12200 74160 36490 33630 23680 8687 15550 17260 20260 14450 35860 3435 23440 33460 10880 67900 7568 44710 25730 88180 20330 12720 6902

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths