COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-05-19


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-05-19

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-062022-02-102022-03-262022-02-072021-11-082021-11-022021-12-252021-12-142022-03-042022-04-202022-04-282022-02-082022-01-312021-11-282021-12-062022-02-152022-02-012021-01-082021-12-212022-03-312021-10-292022-04-172021-11-202022-05-042022-03-172021-02-09
Peak daily increment 2213 2127 41 50 165 47 311 382 47 217 106 299 104 65 190 38 376 99 441 39 440 19 18 28 189 86
Days since peak 43 98 54 101 192 198 145 156 76 29 21 100 108 172 164 93 107 496 149 49 202 32 180 15 63 464
Last total 177890 1085852 19848 31675 37078 12763 40262 138204 6312 105642 4406 144498 29642 15950 46446 7244 165738 22322 116242 22722 65640 18941 6628 20069 3061 13791
Last daily increment 169 627 8 0 7 2 2 151 8 0 122 67 23 5 0 0 108 4 12 57 4 44 1 0 0 0
Last week 638 3027 27 62 35 6 17 712 34 198 122 450 121 30 103 41 647 9 56 194 41 44 9 51 0 10
Previous peak date2022-02-01 --2021-11-302021-12-062021-07-0512-272021-03-09 --2021-12-212022-02-142021-12-312021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-12-082021-06-0804-032021-06-082022-02-022021-06-292022-02-1512-062021-12-162021-12-1511-16
Previous peak daily increment 671 69 50 29 55 215 39 279 13 89 10 22 66 152 59 47 147 51 51 86 17 96
Low between peaks 84 10 17 3 1 0 11 35 4 23 1 0 12 -12 1 12 -2 7 0 7 3 -42

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-05-19

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-012022-02-112022-04-132022-03-212021-06-252022-03-252022-03-042022-02-222022-02-032022-02-012021-08-212021-11-222022-01-062022-02-162022-05-042022-01-192021-09-212021-10-102022-05-042022-02-092022-05-032021-09-272021-02-042022-03-132022-03-182022-02-142021-09-262021-04-032021-09-302022-01-242022-04-012022-01-192022-03-172021-09-152022-01-242022-05-112022-04-122022-01-182021-12-062021-12-022022-02-012022-04-252022-05-0412-092022-04-0105-292022-01-242022-04-282022-04-132022-01-192022-01-122021-12-232022-04-122022-05-112022-02-012022-02-032022-02-232022-02-072022-01-052022-02-072022-03-032022-02-072021-07-282021-10-062021-11-30
Peak daily increment 230 885 153 9531 645 3572 300 222 499 207 214 1212 358 275 765 41 115 120 127 208 260 49 5 25 1013 92 7 51 25 122 744 43 72 69 73 198 33 138 38 1905 66 26 784 28 923 28 101 20 212 212 157 356 28 31 93 7 90 217 25 206 13 46 66 28 24
Days since peak 48 97 36 59 328 55 76 86 105 107 271 178 133 92 15 120 240 221 15 99 16 234 469 67 62 94 235 411 231 115 48 120 63 246 115 8 37 121 164 168 107 24 15 526 48 720 115 21 36 120 127 147 37 8 107 105 85 101 134 101 77 101 295 225 170
Last total 8028 665216 40625 57767 139833 524323 156510 141253 324617 213077 60452 370449 100867 98918 1001606 1286 19641 11426 30259 90917 12515 10921 1342 2936 74060 36669 1434 9571 4936 33750 23638 8803 15830 17309 20446 14515 2337 35993 12584 19297 12460 3381 24627 2232 3452 2512 33595 7664 10824 68282 38585 14419 7580 44898 17891 2919 25735 88261 3046 20332 652 12827 14518 6912 1820
Last daily increment 51 0 191 13 12 20 12 9 0 8 0 95 0 4 337 0 8 0 0 14 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 15 0 1 0 2 15 3 0 0 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 14 0 29 40 39 12 0 0 0 0 19 3 4 0 0 4 7 0
Last week 259 204 357 70 12 122 62 44 152 64 -3 594 123 33 1951 19 13 11 29 135 2 8 2 5 0 70 12 17 3 45 25 83 96 14 75 22 2 77 25 242 6 0 39 0 3 14 58 57 26 144 40 39 20 84 22 2 57 51 3 15 6 42 16 19 3
Previous peak date2022-01-282021-06-152022-01-172021-10-072021-01-212021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252021-07-112021-04-09 --2021-07-212021-09-042022-01-312021-10-192021-01-2709-152022-02-082021-09-1312-0904-2005-022021-07-302022-01-122021-09-202021-01-2612-1109-092021-09-202022-01-102021-10-272021-11-1911-162021-07-152021-12-282021-01-082021-06-07 --2021-09-082021-09-062021-02-032022-02-07 --05-20 -- --2021-12-172022-02-07 -- --2021-10-202021-11-152022-01-272021-09-2411-272021-12-222021-10-1312-102021-03-03 --2021-09-2012-092021-03-1209-02
Previous peak daily increment 82 2009 162 166 386 4974 1725 630 731 548 242 390 271 2584 37 131 134 79 122 161 107 11 117 15817 123 49 328 21 38 79 43 141 148 14 202 22 29 74 47 29 80 45 22 31 591 29 149 70 24 1778 878 9 359 43 61 125 26
Low between peaks 21 88 -220 -143 98 -82 5 22 106 26 84 17 90 380 0 4 -162 -6 54 -127 0 0 1 -733 23 0 6 1 18 10 4 19 4 3 1 0 0 -3 4 0 -24 -5 4 4 -6 10 9 11 0 37 55 1 -29 11 -45 -120 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-20 to 2022-05-26

DateUKEUATBEBGDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITPLPTROSESK
2022-05-19 177890 1085852 19848 31675 37078 138204 6312 105642 4406 144498 29642 15950 46446 7244 165738 116242 22722 65640 18941 20069
2022-05-20 178300 1087000 19860 31700 37100 138400 6319 105900 4406 144700 29670 15960 46450 7263 165900 116300 22720 65650 18940 20080
2022-05-21 178400 1087000 19870 31710 37100 138400 6335 105900 4415 144700 29720 15970 46450 7263 166000 116300 22750 65660 18950 20080
2022-05-22 178400 1088000 19880 31710 37110 138400 6346 105900 4415 144800 29750 15970 46450 7263 166100 116300 22750 65670 18950 20090
2022-05-23 178600 1088000 19890 31750 37120 138700 6356 105900 4419 145000 29780 15980 46450 7271 166200 116300 22750 65670 18950 20090
2022-05-24 178900 1089000 19900 31750 37130 138900 6364 106100 4435 145100 29810 15990 46450 7272 166300 116300 22810 65680 18970 20100
2022-05-25 179000 1090000 19900 31760 37130 139000 6371 106100 4435 145100 29840 15990 46530 7300 166400 116300 22820 65690 18970 20110
2022-05-26 179200 1090000 19910 31780 37140 139200 6378 106100 4594 145200 29860 16000 46530 7304 166500 116300 22860 65700 19070 20110

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-20 to 2022-05-26

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AZUS-CAUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-WA
2022-05-19 8028 665216 40625 57767 524323 156510 141253 324617 213077 370449 100867 98918 1001606 30259 90917 36669 33750 23638 8803 15830 20446 14515 35993 12584 19297 24627 33595 7664 10824 68282 38585 14419 7580 44898 17891 25735 88261 12827
2022-05-20 8062 665500 40720 57790 524300 156500 141300 324600 213100 370500 100900 98930 1002000 30310 91050 36720 33760 23650 8841 15830 20450 14520 36020 12590 19300 24630 33600 7673 10830 68290 38600 14420 7584 44900 17930 25740 88280 12840
2022-05-21 8072 665600 40750 57820 524400 156500 141300 324600 213100 370600 100900 98940 1002000 30320 91050 36740 33760 23650 8854 15840 20450 14520 36030 12590 19300 24630 33600 7673 10840 68300 38620 14420 7585 44900 17940 25740 88290 12840
2022-05-22 8077 665700 40750 57850 524400 156600 141300 324600 213100 370700 100900 98950 1002000 30340 91050 36740 33760 23650 8865 15840 20450 14520 36050 12590 19310 24630 33600 7673 10840 68310 38650 14420 7585 44900 17940 25740 88290 12840
2022-05-23 8134 665800 40760 57880 524400 156600 141300 324700 213100 370800 100900 98960 1002000 30350 91070 36760 33760 23660 8865 15980 20450 14520 36070 12590 19310 24670 33610 7687 10850 68330 38670 14430 7590 44900 17940 25740 88290 12850
2022-05-24 8182 665800 40810 57900 524400 156600 141300 324700 213100 370900 100900 98970 1002000 30370 91170 36810 33770 23660 8888 16010 20470 14530 36090 12590 19310 24670 33620 7699 10870 68360 38690 14440 7592 44900 17960 25740 88300 12850
2022-05-25 8234 665800 40910 57930 524400 156600 141300 324700 213100 371000 101000 98980 1003000 30420 91180 36810 33780 23680 8888 16030 20490 14540 36190 12590 19380 24740 33640 7710 10900 68380 38710 14440 7597 44960 17970 25750 88310 12870
2022-05-26 8277 665900 41080 57950 524400 156600 141300 324700 213200 371100 101000 98990 1003000 30420 91210 36810 33790 23680 8891 16030 20500 14540 36190 12600 19400 24740 33650 7721 10900 68400 38730 14490 7605 44960 17970 25750 88330 12870

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-20 to 2022-05-26

DateUKEUATBEBGDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITPLPTROSESK
2022-05-19 177890 1085852 19848 31675 37078 138204 6312 105642 4406 144498 29642 15950 46446 7244 165738 116242 22722 65640 18941 20069
2022-05-20 178000 1087000 19850 31670 37080 138300 6320 105900 4390 144600 29670 15960 46450 7266 165800 116300 22740 65640 18940 20070
2022-05-21 178000 1087000 19860 31670 37090 138400 6328 105900 4401 144600 29690 15960 46450 7266 165900 116300 22780 65650 18940 20080
2022-05-22 178000 1087000 19860 31680 37090 138400 6335 105900 4405 144600 29710 15970 46450 7266 166000 116300 22780 65660 18940 20090
2022-05-23 178200 1087000 19860 31710 37100 138500 6341 105900 4406 144800 29730 15980 46460 7270 166100 116300 22780 65660 18940 20090
2022-05-24 178500 1088000 19860 31710 37110 138700 6347 106100 4408 144900 29760 15980 46460 7276 166200 116300 22830 65670 18940 20100
2022-05-25 178600 1089000 19870 31710 37120 138900 6354 106100 4410 145000 29780 15990 46520 7295 166300 116300 22840 65680 18940 20110
2022-05-26 178900 1089000 19870 31740 37130 139000 6360 106100 4545 145100 29790 15990 46520 7299 166500 116300 22870 65690 18990 20120

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-20 to 2022-05-26

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AZUS-CAUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-WA
2022-05-19 8028 665216 40625 57767 524323 156510 141253 324617 213077 370449 100867 98918 1001606 30259 90917 36669 33750 23638 8803 15830 20446 14515 35993 12584 19297 24627 33595 7664 10824 68282 38585 14419 7580 44898 17891 25735 88261 12827
2022-05-20 8078 665300 40730 57790 524400 156500 141300 324600 213100 370500 100900 98920 1002000 30260 91040 36670 33760 23650 8852 15830 20460 14510 36000 12590 19340 24700 33600 7674 10830 68310 38600 14420 7585 44910 17900 25740 88280 12840
2022-05-21 8093 665400 40760 57810 524400 156500 141300 324600 213100 370600 100900 98930 1002000 30260 91040 36680 33760 23660 8855 15830 20460 14510 36000 12590 19340 24750 33610 7674 10830 68320 38610 14420 7585 44910 17900 25750 88290 12840
2022-05-22 8099 665400 40760 57830 524400 156500 141300 324600 213100 370700 100900 98940 1002000 30260 91040 36690 33760 23660 8859 15830 20460 14520 36010 12600 19350 24760 33610 7674 10830 68330 38610 14420 7586 44910 17910 25750 88290 12840
2022-05-23 8157 665500 40770 57850 524400 156600 141300 324700 213100 370800 101000 98940 1002000 30270 91050 36700 33770 23660 8859 15950 20470 14520 36010 12600 19350 24770 33620 7687 10830 68360 38620 14420 7591 44910 17910 25750 88290 12850
2022-05-24 8205 665500 40800 57870 524400 156600 141300 324700 213100 370900 101000 98950 1003000 30280 91130 36720 33780 23670 8863 15960 20490 14520 36020 12600 19360 24780 33630 7699 10840 68380 38620 14420 7593 44910 17920 25760 88300 12850
2022-05-25 8254 665600 40920 57900 524500 156600 141300 324700 213100 371000 101000 98960 1003000 30330 91150 36770 33790 23680 8876 15970 20500 14540 36090 12600 19410 24810 33640 7709 10860 68400 38630 14430 7599 44960 17930 25780 88320 12870
2022-05-26 8292 665700 41070 57930 524500 156600 141300 324700 213200 371000 101000 98960 1004000 30330 91170 36790 33790 23680 8878 15980 20510 14540 36090 12610 19420 24880 33650 7719 10870 68420 38630 14470 7606 44960 17940 25780 88330 12870

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths