COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-05-20 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Latin America 2021-05-20

ArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-182021-05-0212-032021-02-032021-04-062021-03-292021-05-03 --09-0309-072021-01-032021-02-102021-05-0807-122021-05-11 --2021-04-102021-01-122021-04-172021-04-1908-11 --2021-04-172021-05-16
Peak daily increment 249 6 6 60 2995 116 535 22 3440 25 34 3 3 46 1512 46 103 362 4 64 26
Days since peak 122 18 168 106 44 52 17 259 255 137 99 12 312 9 40 128 33 31 282 33 4
Last total 72699 222 323 13693 444094 28169 83233 3736 3600 20022 2202 7952 349 276 6093 902 221080 6314 8012 67034 240 341 3691 2465
Last daily increment 434 1 0 58 2403 172 490 40 3 43 3 24 0 0 42 10 230 9 98 0 1 10 53 19
Last week 2846 6 0 284 11466 522 2983 189 35 508 24 107 14 7 195 64 921 22 530 1426 17 76 322 99
Previous peak date10-0108-24 --09-0707-2107-172021-01-2209-2104-1205-1008-0706-05 -- --07-30 --10-0507-23 --07-23 -- -- --09-20
Previous peak daily increment 2487 8 1439 1066 787 389 20 23 166 11 43 35 1833 28 2944 9
Low between peaks 120 0 3 371 37 96 4 14 2 11 5 343 10 48 3

Deaths count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-05-20 72699 13693 444094 28169 83233 3736 3600 20022 2202 7952 6093 902 221080 6314 8012 67034 341 3691 2465
2021-05-21 73070 13730 445100 28270 83700 3782 3605 20090 2206 7972 6133 902 221600 6318 8087 67410 345 3742 2481
2021-05-22 73290 13730 446900 28360 84090 3784 3612 20130 2209 8001 6176 911 222000 6322 8152 67710 345 3794 2497
2021-05-23 73450 13730 447300 28460 84510 3796 3618 20190 2213 8025 6217 927 222100 6326 8221 67990 345 3845 2513
2021-05-24 73890 13750 447600 28560 84930 3864 3624 20250 2216 8046 6256 933 222200 6330 8290 68260 345 3893 2529
2021-05-25 74450 13780 449800 28590 85360 3909 3630 20310 2220 8067 6294 950 222600 6333 8361 68530 348 3942 2544
2021-05-26 74920 13800 451700 28620 85800 3933 3635 20370 2223 8087 6332 966 222700 6337 8432 68800 352 3990 2559
2021-05-27 75320 13840 454100 28770 86240 3959 3641 20430 2227 8106 6371 975 223000 6341 8504 69060 357 4038 2574

Deaths count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-05-20 72699 13693 444094 28169 83233 3736 3600 20022 2202 7952 6093 902 221080 6314 8012 67034 341 3691 2465
2021-05-21 73200 13730 446300 28270 83680 3769 3605 20080 2205 7970 6135 911 221400 6320 8096 67370 354 3742 2481
2021-05-22 73540 13750 448300 28350 84110 3784 3611 20150 2209 7993 6179 915 221600 6323 8158 67580 365 3789 2494
2021-05-23 73850 13770 449500 28430 84560 3799 3617 20180 2212 8012 6219 926 221600 6327 8224 67860 376 3836 2507
2021-05-24 74310 13800 450400 28500 85000 3840 3623 20220 2215 8028 6257 932 221700 6330 8292 68030 387 3884 2520
2021-05-25 74800 13820 452800 28550 85430 3872 3629 20260 2218 8050 6294 941 222000 6334 8361 68230 405 3932 2533
2021-05-26 75230 13840 455000 28590 85860 3897 3636 20300 2222 8074 6331 948 222200 6337 8433 68440 419 3982 2546
2021-05-27 75650 13870 457100 28680 86300 3924 3642 20330 2225 8093 6367 954 222400 6340 8505 68600 435 4031 2559

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths