COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-06-08 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Latin America 2021-06-08

ArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-182021-05-0212-032021-05-252021-04-062021-03-292021-05-032021-05-3109-0309-072021-01-032021-02-102021-05-26 --2021-05-082021-04-092021-06-012021-01-12 --2021-04-14 --2021-05-282021-04-172021-05-16
Peak daily increment 249 6 6 78 2995 116 537 31 22 3440 25 34 7 47 8 2917 46 814 15 64 24
Days since peak 141 37 187 14 63 71 36 8 278 274 156 118 13 31 60 7 147 55 11 52 23
Last total 82667 232 325 15177 476792 30104 92923 4251 3672 20831 2279 8331 416 333 6532 960 229100 6408 10145 186757 363 599 4749 2750
Last daily increment 721 0 0 153 2378 46 427 23 17 17 5 26 5 8 39 0 262 4 140 246 8 10 57 16
Last week 3347 2 0 445 9086 719 3115 153 35 150 24 117 20 14 129 9 954 27 749 1815 47 76 355 76
Previous peak date10-0108-24 --09-0707-2107-172021-01-2209-2804-1205-1008-0706-05 --07-1207-30 --10-0507-23 --07-18 -- -- --09-20
Previous peak daily increment 2487 8 1439 1066 787 389 18 23 166 11 43 3 35 1833 28 917 9
Low between peaks 120 0 3 371 37 96 4 4 14 2 11 5 184 10 95 3

Deaths count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-09 to 2021-06-15

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-06-08 82667 15177 476792 30104 92923 4251 3672 20831 2279 8331 416 6532 229100 6408 10145 186757 363 599 4749 2750
2021-06-09 82990 15250 479400 30200 93400 4285 3676 20870 2283 8350 419 6555 229700 6412 10270 187200 377 601 4804 2764
2021-06-10 83400 15310 481400 30410 93860 4315 3676 20990 2287 8364 422 6584 230000 6419 10370 187800 384 614 4850 2784
2021-06-11 83890 15370 483000 30520 94330 4346 3676 21070 2291 8380 425 6609 230400 6425 10470 188300 391 625 4900 2801
2021-06-12 84260 15440 484700 30640 94800 4346 3678 21130 2295 8397 428 6631 230800 6430 10580 188700 398 636 4950 2817
2021-06-13 84550 15480 485500 30750 95270 4347 3680 21190 2298 8414 431 6653 231000 6434 10690 189100 409 647 5002 2831
2021-06-14 85160 15480 486300 30870 95740 4422 3683 21230 2302 8432 434 6675 231200 6439 10810 189500 417 657 5054 2846
2021-06-15 85780 15600 488500 30880 96220 4446 3687 21280 2306 8450 437 6696 231600 6443 10920 189800 422 667 5107 2859

Deaths count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-09 to 2021-06-15

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-06-08 82667 15177 476792 30104 92923 4251 3672 20831 2279 8331 416 6532 229100 6408 10145 186757 363 599 4749 2750
2021-06-09 83240 15260 479000 30170 93390 4277 3678 20870 2283 8351 419 6557 229200 6412 10270 187100 371 611 4802 2766
2021-06-10 83710 15330 480900 30300 93870 4303 3680 20910 2286 8371 422 6576 229400 6417 10370 187500 379 623 4854 2782
2021-06-11 84220 15390 482500 30380 94340 4330 3682 20950 2289 8390 425 6594 229700 6422 10480 187900 386 635 4907 2798
2021-06-12 84670 15450 484200 30470 94820 4342 3684 20980 2292 8409 429 6611 229900 6426 10590 188300 394 647 4961 2812
2021-06-13 85060 15500 485400 30550 95290 4355 3687 21000 2295 8429 432 6627 230100 6430 10700 188600 402 659 5016 2825
2021-06-14 85600 15550 486300 30630 95760 4403 3689 21030 2298 8448 435 6643 230100 6435 10810 189000 411 672 5073 2839
2021-06-15 86140 15610 488400 30670 96220 4430 3692 21050 2301 8467 438 6659 231100 6439 10930 189300 418 684 5130 2853

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths