COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-10-20 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Latin America 2021-10-20

ArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-102021-09-012021-10-132021-06-122021-04-062021-10-072021-06-252021-09-2009-032021-07-202021-10-052021-09-042021-09-192021-10-062021-05-122021-08-312021-06-0105-262021-01-122021-09-032021-04-142021-10-142021-05-282021-04-172021-05-16
Peak daily increment 568 12 9 82 2995 156 654 36 22 7798 15 60 6 4 45 17 2955 8 46 130 814 8 15 64 25
Days since peak 132 49 7 130 197 13 117 30 412 92 15 46 31 14 161 50 141 512 281 47 189 6 145 186 157
Last total 115770 626 471 18887 604228 37628 126931 6895 4093 32937 3520 14515 881 658 10147 2129 285347 207 7300 16228 199945 1044 1621 6069 4763
Last daily increment 33 0 5 10 373 5 21 15 0 0 15 79 4 0 0 6 422 0 6 0 17 4 8 0 15
Last week 137 36 14 76 2129 45 172 124 11 38 85 311 24 9 64 70 1773 1 25 20 170 44 48 4 82
Previous peak date10-01 --12-0309-0707-2107-172021-01-222021-05-2404-1209-072021-01-032021-06-292021-05-262021-06-2807-302021-05-1810-05 --07-232021-06-0807-182021-06-11 -- --09-20
Previous peak daily increment 2487 6 1439 1066 787 389 31 23 3440 25 57 7 5 35 8 1833 28 129 917 8 9
Low between peaks 108 0 3 371 7 96 11 4 -17 3 27 2 0 5 2 171 10 18 95 2 3

Deaths count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-21 to 2021-10-27

DateArgentinaBahamasBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoVenezuela
2021-10-20 115770 626 18887 604228 37628 126931 6895 32937 3520 14515 881 10147 2129 285347 7300 16228 199945 1044 1621 4763
2021-10-21 115900 630 18900 604800 37640 126900 6950 32950 3534 14540 886 10180 2142 286200 7305 16230 200000 1054 1627 4778
2021-10-22 115900 632 18910 605400 37650 127000 6983 32960 3546 14570 893 10210 2158 286800 7312 16230 200000 1061 1633 4793
2021-10-23 116000 635 18930 605900 37670 127000 6983 32980 3558 14610 899 10220 2171 287100 7318 16230 200000 1069 1639 4807
2021-10-24 116000 639 18940 606100 37680 127000 6983 32990 3571 14660 904 10220 2184 287300 7323 16230 200000 1076 1645 4822
2021-10-25 116100 642 18950 606300 37700 127000 7050 33000 3584 14700 908 10230 2197 287500 7328 16230 200100 1084 1651 4836
2021-10-26 116200 646 18960 606600 37710 127000 7069 33020 3597 14750 913 10280 2209 287900 7332 16230 200100 1091 1658 4850
2021-10-27 116200 650 18970 606900 37720 127000 7087 33030 3610 14810 917 10280 2221 288300 7337 16230 200100 1099 1664 4863

Deaths count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-21 to 2021-10-27

DateArgentinaBahamasBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoVenezuela
2021-10-20 115770 626 18887 604228 37628 126931 6895 32937 3520 14515 881 10147 2129 285347 7300 16228 199945 1044 1621 4763
2021-10-21 115800 629 18900 604700 37640 127000 6919 32950 3533 14560 885 10160 2140 285900 7304 16230 200000 1052 1628 4777
2021-10-22 115800 632 18910 605200 37640 127000 6942 32960 3545 14590 890 10170 2153 286300 7309 16230 200000 1059 1634 4790
2021-10-23 115900 635 18910 605600 37650 127000 6951 32960 3557 14630 895 10180 2166 286500 7313 16240 200000 1067 1641 4802
2021-10-24 115900 637 18920 605700 37660 127000 6959 32970 3569 14670 899 10180 2179 286600 7317 16240 200000 1075 1648 4814
2021-10-25 115900 643 18920 605900 37660 127100 7001 32980 3581 14720 903 10190 2192 286800 7320 16240 200100 1082 1654 4827
2021-10-26 116000 646 18920 606300 37670 127100 7020 32980 3592 14760 908 10220 2205 287300 7323 16250 200100 1090 1661 4839
2021-10-27 116000 649 18930 606600 37680 127100 7040 32990 3604 14810 912 10230 2218 287800 7327 16250 200100 1098 1668 4851

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths