COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-01-24 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Latin America 2022-01-24

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-10-182021-10-252021-11-102021-10-192021-06-152021-10-072021-12-092021-09-202021-10-272022-01-142021-10-052021-09-04 --2021-11-292021-05-092021-08-312021-08-2505-262022-01-15 --2021-12-102021-10-072021-12-142022-01-162021-06-29
Peak daily increment 13 3 12 23 2009 166 70 34 3 394 15 61 8 45 17 731 7 10 61 8 26 11 17
Days since peak 98 91 75 97 223 109 46 126 89 10 111 142 56 260 146 152 608 9 45 109 41 8 209
Last total 119444 729 276 622 20671 623636 39535 132477 7451 4289 34279 3857 16272 1138 783 10468 2599 303301 219 7598 17009 204404 1242 3320 6325 5405
Last daily increment 276 0 1 6 101 266 23 237 0 2 0 2 4 4 0 0 5 118 0 0 122 81 3 18 17 0
Last week 1024 10 5 11 380 1833 108 1209 26 20 47 20 81 37 3 11 48 1832 1 53 165 759 21 96 72 22
Previous peak date --2021-07-16 --12-032021-06-12 --2021-07-032021-06-242021-06-072021-06-292021-07-20 --2021-06-292021-09-192021-06-3007-292021-06-09 -- --2021-08-022021-09-032021-07-112021-06-082021-06-062021-06-09 --
Previous peak daily increment 10 6 85 116 647 26 8 7806 59 7 5 35 5 10 130 548 8 13 53
Low between peaks 1 0 6 7 25 10 1 -36 27 0 5 2 1 26 2 6 1

Deaths count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-25 to 2022-01-31

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-01-24 119444 20671 623636 39535 132477 7451 4289 34279 3857 16272 1138 2599 303301 7598 17009 204404 1242 3320 6325 5405
2022-01-25 119700 20670 624000 39540 132700 7457 4289 34290 3860 16290 1146 2602 303300 7606 17090 204500 1246 3337 6336 5408
2022-01-26 119900 20700 624300 39540 132800 7462 4291 34300 3863 16300 1154 2602 303600 7606 17160 204600 1250 3363 6344 5412
2022-01-27 120000 20760 624600 39570 133000 7466 4291 34300 3866 16310 1162 2602 303600 7607 17220 204700 1254 3385 6354 5416
2022-01-28 120200 20820 624800 39580 133200 7472 4294 34310 3869 16330 1169 2602 303900 7612 17290 204800 1257 3404 6364 5419
2022-01-29 120400 20820 625100 39600 133400 7472 4297 34320 3872 16350 1177 2602 304000 7616 17350 204900 1261 3422 6374 5422
2022-01-30 120500 20840 625300 39610 133500 7472 4298 34330 3875 16350 1185 2602 304300 7623 17410 205000 1265 3439 6384 5426
2022-01-31 120700 20900 625600 39630 133700 7474 4300 34340 3878 16360 1192 2602 304300 7629 17470 205000 1268 3456 6394 5429

Deaths count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-25 to 2022-01-31

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-01-24 119444 20671 623636 39535 132477 7451 4289 34279 3857 16272 1138 2599 303301 7598 17009 204404 1242 3320 6325 5405
2022-01-25 119600 20710 624000 39540 132700 7453 4290 34300 3859 16280 1143 2607 303400 7604 17060 204500 1245 3336 6336 5407
2022-01-26 119700 20760 624200 39540 132800 7458 4294 34310 3861 16290 1148 2613 303800 7609 17080 204600 1248 3353 6344 5411
2022-01-27 119900 20830 624500 39560 133000 7462 4294 34320 3863 16310 1152 2619 303800 7614 17100 204700 1251 3370 6353 5414
2022-01-28 120000 20880 624800 39580 133100 7468 4297 34330 3866 16320 1158 2626 304200 7621 17110 204700 1254 3388 6361 5417
2022-01-29 120200 20890 625000 39600 133300 7469 4301 34350 3868 16340 1164 2633 304300 7627 17130 204800 1258 3403 6370 5420
2022-01-30 120300 20910 625200 39610 133400 7469 4302 34370 3870 16340 1169 2639 304400 7635 17150 204900 1261 3419 6379 5423
2022-01-31 120400 20940 625400 39630 133600 7473 4302 34380 3872 16340 1173 2647 304400 7642 17190 205000 1264 3435 6388 5427

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths