COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-02-20 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Latin America 2022-02-20

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-10-182021-10-252021-11-102022-01-202021-06-152021-10-072022-01-292021-09-202021-02-062022-01-112022-02-092021-09-042021-09-182022-02-012022-02-162022-01-232022-02-0405-262022-02-062021-09-032022-02-082021-10-072021-12-142022-02-022021-06-29
Peak daily increment 13 3 12 56 2009 166 251 34 22 312 8 61 6 64 53 9 474 7 17 130 202 9 26 24 17
Days since peak 125 118 102 31 250 136 22 153 379 40 11 169 155 19 4 28 16 635 14 170 12 136 68 18 236
Last total 125278 770 310 641 21372 644592 41347 138106 7894 4357 35105 4041 16787 1211 819 10608 2784 315688 223 8019 18191 209468 1310 3567 6879 5602
Last daily increment 93 2 2 0 5 397 151 110 0 0 0 9 7 1 5 0 5 163 0 19 0 170 1 5 14 0
Last week 929 4 11 9 58 5441 681 805 88 10 69 39 144 15 12 96 34 2869 1 69 227 1002 7 36 101 53
Previous peak date --2021-07-16 --12-032021-06-12 --2021-07-032021-06-242021-06-0704-122021-07-202021-10-052021-06-292021-05-262021-11-292021-08-042021-08-312021-08-25 --2021-08-022021-06-082021-07-112021-06-082021-06-062021-06-09 --
Previous peak daily increment 10 6 85 116 647 26 22 7763 15 59 7 8 39 17 731 10 129 548 8 13 53
Low between peaks 1 0 5 7 25 10 1 -32 0 27 2 0 0 2 106 1 18 26 2 6 1

Deaths count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-02-20 125278 21372 644592 41347 138106 7894 35105 4041 16787 10608 2784 315688 8019 18191 209468 3567 6879 5602
2022-02-21 125700 21390 644800 41390 138200 7929 35120 4048 16790 10610 2790 316100 8032 18260 209700 3574 6896 5610
2022-02-22 126000 21440 645600 41400 138400 7946 35150 4057 16800 10610 2797 316400 8061 18320 209900 3589 6929 5613
2022-02-23 126200 21480 646500 41420 138500 7960 35180 4064 16820 10630 2803 317200 8082 18370 210100 3599 6954 5618
2022-02-24 126400 21510 647300 41560 138600 7981 35190 4071 16840 10630 2809 317600 8099 18400 210200 3608 6975 5624
2022-02-25 126500 21530 648200 41660 138700 7999 35210 4078 16870 10630 2815 317900 8115 18430 210400 3616 6996 5630
2022-02-26 126600 21550 648900 41740 138800 7999 35220 4085 16900 10630 2821 318800 8128 18460 210600 3624 7014 5637
2022-02-27 126700 21560 649300 41870 139000 7999 35230 4091 16910 10630 2827 318900 8141 18470 210800 3630 7032 5644

Deaths count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-02-20 125278 21372 644592 41347 138106 7894 35105 4041 16787 10608 2784 315688 8019 18191 209468 3567 6879 5602
2022-02-21 125500 21390 645000 41460 138200 7927 35150 4048 16790 10610 2790 315800 8032 18240 209600 3574 6895 5609
2022-02-22 125800 21420 645900 41510 138400 7946 35160 4055 16810 10610 2795 316100 8053 18300 209800 3582 6914 5615
2022-02-23 126000 21440 646900 41540 138500 7961 35170 4062 16830 10650 2800 316900 8069 18340 209900 3589 6932 5622
2022-02-24 126200 21450 647800 41700 138600 7983 35210 4069 16850 10660 2806 317200 8084 18380 210100 3596 6949 5629
2022-02-25 126400 21460 648900 41810 138700 8002 35220 4076 16880 10660 2811 317700 8100 18410 210300 3602 6965 5636
2022-02-26 126600 21480 649700 41910 138900 8003 35230 4083 16910 10660 2817 318600 8112 18440 210500 3609 6981 5644
2022-02-27 126700 21490 650100 42010 139000 8003 35230 4089 16920 10660 2823 318700 8125 18470 210700 3615 6997 5652

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths