COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-30 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
    Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
    Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-06-30

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-06-30

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-2204-1804-3004-2904-0904-2104-2004-1003-2503-1804-2303-2804-1603-2605-1404-0204-1903-3003-2305-0805-1404-1304-1804-1404-0604-2104-0504-2104-1304-2003-2203-2604-0604-1904-2603-2404-0803-2404-2103-3005-1204-2303-3103-1804-1304-0804-2103-2504-1705-1204-1903-2803-3104-2204-2005-0405-0303-2504-1004-1704-1105-0204-2104-0104-2104-1304-1104-2103-2503-2504-2203-3103-2603-2404-1804-2204-1904-2004-1004-0204-2604-2504-1604-2104-0504-2104-2204-1604-2604-2204-1704-2303-2203-3103-2403-2404-1704-0404-1704-2304-2203-2904-1303-3104-2104-2004-1503-3003-3103-2904-0603-2904-2104-1504-1903-2503-2504-2103-1904-0704-1504-2004-1903-2904-1603-2304-1003-2604-1304-1903-2504-2305-0404-1504-2103-2503-2305-0304-0904-2204-0904-2303-2903-2403-2604-1406-1604-2503-2503-2504-2003-3103-3104-0904-1804-1103-3005-2403-3005-1105-0403-2504-3004-1504-2303-2804-2103-3104-2003-2503-3004-2203-2604-2104-1804-1404-2603-2104-2305-0404-2203-3004-0804-1103-2904-1004-1904-1404-2205-1104-0203-3005-1104-2204-1404-1405-0704-0603-3004-2304-0904-0703-2903-1904-2103-3103-2504-1504-2204-1904-2904-1504-1504-1405-0704-1704-0803-2504-2804-2203-2904-2203-2603-2304-2904-2303-2004-0903-2204-1504-1704-1603-2504-2904-2903-2904-2203-2605-0904-1604-2104-0104-0804-1403-2603-2404-1503-2504-1504-1504-1403-3003-2904-2304-2204-1003-3103-2903-3004-0504-0804-0105-1103-2503-3104-1504-1404-1404-1404-0204-0904-0903-3004-1004-1303-2603-2605-1204-2704-0604-2204-1603-2303-2404-1403-2504-1104-1304-2003-2404-2304-0804-0704-1604-2005-0204-1403-2204-1505-0304-1504-0803-3104-0904-0904-1404-1504-1504-1104-2004-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 6 10 10 12 16 25 16 8 20 47 33 32 22 26 15 11 20 30 116 11 22 24 7 35 9 26 10 62 12 12 53 9 15 28 15 39 12 6 10 9 27 12 7 22 8 16 23 8 22 18 19 12 16 42 35 10 7 7 15 28 9 8 20 6 76 25 6 13 56 10 20 21 5 23 8 41 20 14 30 34 5 6 17 9 6 8 46 15 21 17 12 4 11 29 14 9 10 6 9 13 15 5 11 38 9 14 9 11 10 28 15 18 7 24 8 22 11 13 30 6 16 3 12 32 21 14 8 26 11 13 26 26 8 23 18 17 17 16 24 50 19 32 23 43 29 86 84 8 44 9 6 62 27 16 3 5 56 12 29 4 5 26 7 12 16 22 21 9 12 8 34 18 44 6 14 5 12 6 19 8 23 23 9 6 19 40 10 31 16 8 38 23 7 36 21 14 22 27 34 16 11 19 5 16 10 24 7 9 4 34 9 8 9 16 3 4 28 32 17 9 36 9 8 71 23 14 22 12 5 9 9 20 3 28 8 17 12 5 13 11 8 10 24 19 17 47 8 14 40 18 8 8 35 20 29 15 10 54 10 32 10 16 30 7 8 8 13 16 12 9 24 9 12 7 12 26 23 12 9 10 32 36 31 34 32 11 15 13 11 7 9 13 3 15 4 14 15 22 61 34 11 10 48 10 17 32 14 12 12 8 14 13 30
Days from 100 to peak 5 18 24 19 6 23 23 -4 7 7 35 8 23 7 39 1 26 13 13 30 46 15 7 22 0 27 5 31 11 16 11 -5 14 30 19 11 12 -6 20 -3 50 25 -4 3 12 10 28 -11 26 40 26 1 4 31 29 33 23 -7 11 16 12 11 30 -9 31 26 0 21 14 0 22 7 -21 7 5 31 25 16 24 21 4 18 15 23 -4 10 27 18 31 10 17 -2 -1 17 2 -4 11 -1 17 15 16 -20 5 8 22 21 3 1 -1 15 10 2 18 30 5 10 -2 20 7 1 9 -21 20 11 14 2 3 12 10 20 11 22 21 14 5 10 8 31 10 21 20 32 5 15 8 27 87 20 12 -2 4 15 11 11 -2 3 11 43 10 1 -12 11 4 2 27 4 32 3 21 -12 13 20 11 -6 20 4 22 -16 21 17 22 7 2 6 6 18 9 25 29 27 13 6 34 22 17 19 40 12 14 27 6 17 -24 1 3 9 -17 3 -1 30 21 11 10 16 -13 20 9 24 13 8 6 -4 12 38 35 0 1 -13 14 17 23 15 22 12 14 -15 43 12 7 7 12 23 2 15 13 1 24 11 5 -5 9 28 27 14 -2 8 -1 19 9 3 49 -6 -1 2 16 15 16 -2 11 11 6 8 9 10 6 34 18 9 31 31 7 14 21 -3 17 13 18 -26 19 13 20 -5 33 4 12 24 42 23 15 10 4 15 31 13 7 13 23 19 14 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 37 40 54 45 29 37 39 29 19 14 42 17 33 23 58 25 37 24 15 60 58 26 41 33 20 39 27 36 32 37 17 16 36 41 42 18 31 18 46 13 62 41 25 16 37 25 43 19 39 59 45 17 20 42 39 57 57 23 30 32 30 48 46 29 35 35 32 41 19 24 35 19 23 16 40 39 41 37 33 30 41 60 38 49 21 42 38 38 45 38 39 45 17 27 16 14 41 30 41 40 42 15 32 13 47 38 38 16 17 24 31 15 45 43 44 21 12 40 15 29 26 35 42 21 35 16 38 21 33 42 20 40 48 30 36 21 27 52 25 29 33 42 14 21 15 31 93 44 19 17 39 20 20 26 38 31 20 74 21 63 58 22 47 31 44 12 43 26 38 25 21 38 18 27 43 32 45 14 37 54 47 19 31 36 17 26 38 38 49 60 22 25 58 37 34 38 51 26 22 39 28 30 12 12 34 21 9 29 41 37 54 40 38 33 51 37 29 17 43 47 15 38 15 16 50 51 8 25 19 41 41 41 27 40 54 25 41 18 60 35 39 26 23 35 14 21 35 22 31 26 35 23 20 42 38 31 19 14 17 28 31 21 64 13 21 47 32 31 40 24 25 32 21 33 41 22 20 60 49 29 39 40 15 21 29 14 28 37 42 10 44 30 39 31 39 54 32 22 29 55 43 36 16 33 35 41 34 29 31 49 35 35 36
Last total 184 343 430 319 561 1262 756 258 705 1582 1862 598 772 938 549 336 1229 1044 4755 466 975 1012 344 1788 484 806 374 4082 420 429 1728 268 764 1277 403 1512 521 278 420 437 1262 654 317 700 294 663 644 294 1207 754 719 421 685 2173 1929 494 268 281 667 698 337 301 882 199 3301 1313 244 418 1842 493 601 652 264 1259 251 1949 597 636 1295 1547 189 207 488 405 233 363 1630 543 862 382 429 152 410 1174 474 329 402 234 289 465 712 160 436 1271 371 533 220 533 339 946 543 681 299 747 355 740 382 695 1269 266 589 126 357 929 743 471 400 1077 523 506 1052 871 316 693 420 543 552 539 848 1531 733 1930 982 1348 879 3580 3671 357 1189 387 251 2415 1358 626 130 220 2835 342 1034 147 121 931 205 322 591 947 849 323 449 310 1519 762 1257 119 583 203 350 213 716 216 907 911 330 300 1055 1566 288 1160 824 396 1815 827 416 1249 654 492 1144 764 1099 698 389 762 187 530 265 1530 275 281 176 1848 349 320 376 593 88 132 1299 1622 560 385 1495 311 355 3918 1381 628 880 436 197 341 398 740 98 695 393 584 321 265 593 504 330 381 941 915 643 1433 330 479 1192 557 364 315 1615 954 1422 516 257 1761 424 997 510 736 1495 335 311 204 590 611 489 249 829 352 542 343 272 790 1238 444 274 458 1606 1448 1006 1140 1309 430 538 452 436 324 386 471 70 709 143 514 467 770 2109 1233 473 399 2016 334 585 1370 392 395 406 418 620 407 897
Last daily increment 0 2 0 0 1 6 2 0 2 1 9 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 12 8 2 0 5 8 1 0 0 17 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 1 8 0 1 3 0 1 4 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 3 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 15 2 0 0 6 56 0 1 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 4 5 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 6 1 0 2 0 3 11 0 1 2 1 0 3 0 4 0 1 0 1 1 1 11 1 0 0 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 23 3 1 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 2 1 4 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 2 3 3 1 6 31 10 0 10 9 60 1 5 1 11 0 17 8 49 16 20 13 8 44 4 2 2 192 3 1 14 4 5 5 2 5 10 0 3 11 11 32 2 3 7 7 19 6 7 23 7 3 11 28 38 2 1 0 3 4 1 0 2 0 15 6 2 5 5 5 1 10 3 21 4 30 4 12 7 15 0 3 3 2 4 10 9 7 2 13 2 0 4 11 3 1 10 0 0 3 28 0 6 1 1 1 0 10 1 4 3 5 0 10 9 3 2 8 4 1 0 1 0 7 3 1 1 13 15 4 16 9 1 3 1 3 1 7 3 8 3 107 21 3 1 62 365 4 4 1 4 37 18 6 0 2 67 2 10 4 1 6 0 0 2 3 5 1 1 1 8 13 14 0 5 0 2 1 4 1 6 2 6 6 18 8 2 20 13 16 50 13 11 23 5 2 20 6 13 4 1 2 3 3 2 74 4 0 3 69 4 3 4 2 0 0 18 14 0 2 11 5 9 134 23 13 8 1 1 1 4 2 0 3 3 1 1 6 5 9 1 3 1 5 8 9 5 11 10 9 15 1 20 14 24 4 1 3 4 2 4 9 23 3 0 0 9 0 0 3 11 5 6 2 5 3 8 4 0 1 25 11 16 6 5 1 2 1 9 7 3 1 0 5 2 0 2 5 10 5 1 2 11 8 4 17 3 3 2 6 4 0 5
Days since peak 69 73 61 62 82 70 71 81 97 104 68 94 75 96 47 89 72 92 99 53 47 78 73 77 85 70 86 70 78 71 100 96 85 72 65 98 83 98 70 92 49 68 91 104 78 83 70 97 74 49 72 94 91 69 71 57 58 97 81 74 80 59 70 90 70 78 80 70 97 97 69 91 96 98 73 69 72 71 81 89 65 66 75 70 86 70 69 75 65 69 74 68 100 91 98 98 74 87 74 68 69 93 78 91 70 71 76 92 91 93 85 93 70 76 72 97 97 70 103 84 76 71 72 93 75 99 81 96 78 72 97 68 57 76 70 97 99 58 82 69 82 68 93 98 96 77 14 66 97 97 71 91 91 82 73 80 92 37 92 50 57 97 61 76 68 94 70 91 71 97 92 69 96 70 73 77 65 101 68 57 69 92 83 80 93 81 72 77 69 50 89 92 50 69 77 77 54 85 92 68 82 84 93 103 70 91 97 76 69 72 62 76 76 77 54 74 83 97 63 69 93 69 96 99 62 68 102 82 100 76 74 75 97 62 62 93 69 96 52 75 70 90 83 77 96 98 76 97 76 76 77 92 93 68 69 81 91 93 92 86 83 90 50 97 91 76 77 77 77 89 82 82 92 81 78 96 96 49 64 85 69 75 99 98 77 97 80 78 71 98 68 83 84 75 71 59 77 100 76 58 76 83 91 82 82 77 76 76 80 71 71 77 70

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-01 to 2020-07-07

DateAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBradfordBrentBromsgroveBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCounty DurhamCoventryDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverDudleyEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEnfieldErewashFolkestone and HytheFyldeGraveshamHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHarrogateHaveringHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHuntingdonshireKetteringKingston upon HullKirkleesKnowsleyLeedsLeicesterLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMedwayMertonNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth SomersetNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth NorthamptonshireSouth RibbleSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinThanetThurrockTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWealdenWellingboroughWiganWirralWokingWolverhamptonWycombe
2020-06-30 561 1262 756 705 1582 1862 549 1229 1044 4755 466 975 1012 344 1788 4082 1728 521 437 1262 654 294 663 644 294 1207 754 719 685 2173 1929 3301 1313 652 1259 1949 636 1295 1547 363 1630 543 382 1174 402 712 436 533 747 355 695 929 1077 523 1052 871 539 1531 1930 982 3580 3671 2415 1358 626 2835 1034 931 1519 762 1257 907 330 300 1055 1566 1160 824 396 1815 827 416 1249 1144 764 1099 1530 1848 1299 1622 1495 355 3918 1381 628 880 265 504 643 1433 479 1192 557 364 1615 954 1422 736 1495 590 829 542 1238 1606 1448 1006 1140 436 324 2109 2016 334 1370 418
2020-07-01 562 1268 758 707 1584 1869 550 1231 1045 4764 469 978 1014 345 1796 4107 1730 523 439 1264 658 295 664 646 295 1207 757 721 686 2177 1935 3305 1314 654 1262 1953 638 1297 1551 364 1631 544 384 1176 404 716 437 535 749 357 696 930 1079 525 1055 872 540 1533 1946 986 3588 3726 2422 1361 627 2847 1036 933 1521 765 1259 908 331 301 1058 1568 1163 825 399 1823 829 418 1253 1147 766 1102 1541 1859 1303 1625 1497 356 3937 1385 630 883 266 505 644 1436 481 1194 558 366 1620 957 1427 737 1498 591 831 543 1240 1610 1450 1009 1142 438 325 2111 2018 335 1373 419
2020-07-02 563 1273 759 709 1586 1874 551 1233 1046 4773 473 982 1015 347 1803 4132 1733 525 440 1266 661 296 666 650 296 1208 761 722 688 2181 1941 3308 1314 655 1265 1957 639 1298 1553 366 1632 545 386 1178 405 721 438 537 751 359 697 932 1082 528 1057 874 542 1534 1961 989 3596 3780 2428 1362 628 2857 1037 933 1523 768 1262 909 332 302 1061 1569 1165 827 401 1831 830 420 1255 1151 767 1104 1551 1869 1306 1627 1499 357 3957 1389 632 885 267 507 645 1438 482 1196 559 368 1623 960 1431 739 1501 593 832 544 1242 1614 1452 1011 1143 439 326 2112 2019 336 1376 420
2020-07-03 564 1278 761 711 1588 1879 552 1235 1048 4781 476 985 1017 349 1811 4157 1735 526 442 1268 665 296 667 653 297 1209 764 723 690 2184 1947 3310 1315 657 1269 1961 641 1299 1556 368 1633 546 388 1180 406 726 440 538 753 361 698 933 1084 530 1059 875 543 1535 1977 993 3604 3835 2434 1364 629 2867 1038 934 1525 770 1264 910 333 302 1064 1570 1168 828 404 1839 832 422 1258 1154 768 1107 1561 1879 1309 1629 1501 358 3977 1393 634 887 268 508 646 1440 484 1198 561 370 1627 962 1435 740 1504 594 834 545 1244 1617 1453 1014 1144 441 327 2114 2021 337 1379 421
2020-07-04 564 1283 763 712 1589 1883 553 1237 1049 4789 480 988 1019 351 1818 4181 1737 528 443 1270 669 297 668 656 298 1209 767 724 692 2188 1953 3313 1316 659 1272 1965 642 1300 1558 370 1634 547 390 1182 407 731 441 540 754 363 699 935 1087 533 1061 876 544 1537 1992 996 3612 3890 2441 1366 630 2877 1039 935 1527 773 1266 911 333 303 1067 1572 1171 830 406 1847 834 424 1260 1158 769 1109 1572 1889 1312 1631 1503 359 3997 1396 635 889 269 510 647 1441 486 1199 562 372 1630 965 1438 741 1507 595 836 546 1246 1620 1455 1016 1145 442 328 2116 2022 338 1382 422
2020-07-05 565 1288 764 714 1591 1887 554 1239 1050 4798 483 991 1021 353 1825 4206 1739 529 445 1272 672 298 670 659 299 1210 770 725 693 2192 1959 3316 1317 660 1275 1969 643 1302 1561 372 1635 548 392 1184 409 736 443 542 756 366 700 936 1089 536 1063 878 545 1538 2008 999 3620 3945 2447 1367 631 2886 1041 936 1528 776 1268 912 334 304 1070 1573 1173 831 408 1854 836 426 1263 1161 770 1111 1582 1899 1316 1632 1505 360 4017 1400 637 892 270 511 648 1443 487 1201 563 373 1633 967 1442 742 1510 597 838 547 1248 1623 1456 1018 1146 444 329 2118 2024 339 1385 423
2020-07-06 566 1293 766 716 1592 1890 555 1241 1051 4806 487 994 1022 355 1833 4231 1741 531 446 1273 676 299 671 662 300 1211 774 726 695 2196 1965 3318 1317 662 1279 1972 644 1303 1563 374 1636 548 394 1186 410 741 444 544 758 368 701 938 1091 538 1065 879 547 1539 2024 1003 3628 4002 2453 1369 632 2896 1042 937 1530 779 1270 913 335 304 1073 1574 1176 833 411 1862 837 427 1265 1164 772 1113 1593 1909 1319 1634 1507 361 4037 1404 639 894 271 513 649 1445 489 1203 564 375 1637 970 1446 743 1513 598 840 548 1250 1626 1458 1020 1147 446 330 2120 2025 340 1388 424
2020-07-07 567 1299 768 718 1594 1893 556 1243 1052 4814 490 997 1024 357 1840 4256 1743 533 448 1275 680 299 672 666 301 1211 777 728 697 2200 1971 3321 1318 663 1282 1976 646 1304 1566 375 1637 549 396 1188 411 746 445 545 759 370 702 939 1094 541 1067 881 548 1541 2039 1006 3635 4059 2459 1370 633 2906 1043 938 1532 781 1273 914 336 305 1076 1576 1179 834 413 1870 839 429 1267 1168 773 1116 1603 1920 1322 1636 1509 362 4057 1407 641 896 272 514 650 1447 490 1204 565 377 1640 972 1450 744 1515 599 841 549 1252 1629 1459 1023 1148 447 331 2122 2027 341 1391 424

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-01 to 2020-07-07

DateAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBradfordBrentBromsgroveBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCounty DurhamCoventryDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverDudleyEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEnfieldErewashFolkestone and HytheFyldeGraveshamHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHarrogateHaveringHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHuntingdonshireKetteringKingston upon HullKirkleesKnowsleyLeedsLeicesterLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMedwayMertonNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth SomersetNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth NorthamptonshireSouth RibbleSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinThanetThurrockTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWealdenWellingboroughWiganWirralWokingWolverhamptonWycombe
2020-06-30 561 1262 756 705 1582 1862 549 1229 1044 4755 466 975 1012 344 1788 4082 1728 521 437 1262 654 294 663 644 294 1207 754 719 685 2173 1929 3301 1313 652 1259 1949 636 1295 1547 363 1630 543 382 1174 402 712 436 533 747 355 695 929 1077 523 1052 871 539 1531 1930 982 3580 3671 2415 1358 626 2835 1034 931 1519 762 1257 907 330 300 1055 1566 1160 824 396 1815 827 416 1249 1144 764 1099 1530 1848 1299 1622 1495 355 3918 1381 628 880 265 504 643 1433 479 1192 557 364 1615 954 1422 736 1495 590 829 542 1238 1606 1448 1006 1140 436 324 2109 2016 334 1370 418
2020-07-01 562 1266 757 706 1583 1868 550 1231 1045 4762 467 978 1013 344 1794 4106 1730 522 438 1264 658 295 664 645 295 1207 757 720 685 2176 1932 3303 1314 653 1262 1954 637 1296 1550 363 1631 544 383 1176 403 713 437 534 748 355 696 930 1079 524 1054 872 540 1532 1942 985 3588 3709 2418 1360 627 2844 1035 932 1520 763 1259 908 331 301 1057 1567 1162 825 399 1822 828 417 1252 1146 765 1100 1540 1856 1301 1624 1496 356 3936 1384 630 881 266 505 644 1434 480 1193 558 365 1617 956 1424 737 1498 591 831 542 1239 1609 1449 1007 1141 437 325 2110 2018 335 1373 419
2020-07-02 563 1271 758 708 1584 1875 552 1234 1046 4770 468 981 1016 345 1801 4136 1732 523 440 1265 663 296 665 645 296 1208 760 721 686 2181 1936 3307 1314 655 1265 1960 639 1297 1553 364 1632 545 385 1178 405 715 437 535 750 356 697 932 1081 526 1056 873 541 1533 1957 988 3600 3757 2423 1363 628 2856 1037 933 1520 764 1261 909 332 302 1061 1568 1166 827 401 1831 830 419 1256 1150 766 1101 1551 1867 1304 1627 1498 358 3956 1388 631 882 266 506 645 1435 482 1195 560 368 1620 959 1427 738 1502 592 833 543 1240 1613 1450 1009 1142 438 326 2112 2020 336 1376 420
2020-07-03 564 1276 759 710 1585 1880 553 1237 1047 4779 469 985 1018 346 1809 4165 1735 525 442 1267 668 297 666 646 297 1209 763 723 687 2186 1942 3310 1315 656 1268 1966 641 1299 1556 365 1633 546 387 1180 407 719 438 536 752 357 699 934 1084 528 1059 875 542 1534 1973 992 3611 3810 2430 1366 629 2868 1038 934 1522 766 1262 910 332 303 1064 1570 1169 829 404 1839 832 421 1260 1153 768 1103 1561 1878 1307 1629 1500 359 3976 1392 633 884 267 507 647 1437 484 1197 561 370 1623 962 1431 740 1506 594 835 544 1241 1618 1452 1011 1143 439 327 2114 2023 338 1379 421
2020-07-04 565 1280 760 711 1587 1885 555 1240 1048 4787 471 989 1021 347 1816 4195 1737 526 444 1269 672 298 668 648 298 1210 767 724 688 2191 1947 3313 1316 658 1272 1972 643 1300 1559 367 1634 548 389 1182 408 723 439 538 754 358 700 936 1086 530 1061 876 544 1535 1988 995 3623 3864 2436 1368 631 2880 1040 936 1523 768 1264 911 333 304 1068 1571 1172 832 407 1847 835 422 1264 1156 769 1104 1572 1888 1310 1632 1502 360 3996 1396 635 885 268 508 648 1438 485 1198 562 372 1627 965 1435 742 1509 595 837 545 1243 1622 1453 1014 1145 441 328 2116 2025 339 1382 422
2020-07-05 566 1285 761 713 1588 1890 557 1242 1049 4796 473 993 1023 348 1824 4225 1740 528 445 1271 677 298 669 650 300 1211 770 726 689 2196 1953 3317 1317 659 1275 1977 644 1301 1562 368 1635 549 390 1184 410 727 440 539 756 360 701 937 1088 533 1064 878 545 1536 2004 999 3634 3919 2442 1371 632 2892 1042 937 1525 770 1266 912 334 305 1071 1572 1175 834 410 1856 837 424 1268 1160 770 1105 1583 1899 1313 1634 1503 362 4016 1400 637 887 269 510 649 1439 487 1200 564 374 1630 968 1439 744 1513 596 838 546 1244 1626 1455 1016 1146 442 330 2118 2027 340 1384 423
2020-07-06 567 1290 762 715 1589 1894 559 1245 1050 4804 475 996 1026 349 1831 4256 1742 529 447 1273 682 299 671 652 301 1212 773 727 690 2201 1958 3320 1319 661 1278 1983 646 1302 1565 369 1637 551 392 1186 412 731 441 540 759 361 702 939 1091 535 1066 879 546 1537 2020 1002 3646 3975 2448 1374 634 2904 1043 938 1526 772 1268 913 335 307 1075 1574 1178 837 413 1864 839 425 1272 1163 772 1107 1594 1910 1316 1637 1505 363 4036 1404 639 889 270 511 651 1441 489 1201 565 376 1634 970 1442 745 1517 598 840 547 1246 1630 1456 1019 1147 443 331 2120 2030 341 1387 424
2020-07-07 569 1295 763 716 1590 1897 560 1248 1051 4813 478 1000 1028 350 1839 4287 1744 531 449 1275 687 300 672 654 302 1213 777 729 691 2206 1964 3324 1320 663 1282 1989 648 1304 1568 371 1638 552 394 1188 413 735 443 542 761 362 704 941 1093 538 1069 881 548 1539 2037 1006 3658 4033 2454 1377 635 2917 1045 940 1528 774 1270 914 336 308 1078 1575 1181 839 416 1873 841 427 1276 1166 773 1108 1605 1921 1319 1639 1507 364 4056 1408 641 890 271 512 652 1442 490 1203 566 378 1638 973 1446 747 1521 599 842 548 1247 1635 1458 1021 1149 445 332 2122 2032 343 1390 425

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.