COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-07-09

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-07-09

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1204-1804-0304-0204-1904-0405-03 --04-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1204-2204-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-1004-1604-0303-3005-0504-2105-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-2703-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2604-1503-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1504-1303-2503-2504-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2903-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0104-01 --04-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-1004-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1503-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0804-0505-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-2103-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2603-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0804-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 48 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 27 21 6 34 8 21 8 55 9 52 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 10 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 13 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 33 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 13 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 17 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 15 18 23 43 16 28 22 39 32 75 73 6 37 8 4 54 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 15 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 27 9 15 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 22 8 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 13 8 10 -4 25 4 43 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 24 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 38 23 7 3 44 30 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -22 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 -3 1 13 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 13 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 86 9 12 -2 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -10 15 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 22 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 8 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 8 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 24 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 14 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 7 50 -10 6 3 44 13 23 -5 15 18 1 9 13 10 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 13 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 30 38 29 22 21 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 27 41 23 17 40 27 49 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 41 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 58 43 24 21 55 41 59 55 67 29 32 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 44 19 22 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 81 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 34 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 33 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 92 33 20 19 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 58 26 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 48 19 30 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 27 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 29 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 48 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 41 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 43 16 31 41 16 25 36 27 31 26 35 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 25 64 10 28 47 60 30 47 24 29 40 17 35 49 22 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 31 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 43 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 186 345 438 319 568 1290 778 259 712 1599 1914 598 790 941 562 338 1272 1061 4845 489 1055 1026 345 1855 487 814 381 4336 452 431 1745 275 773 1291 407 1520 524 284 427 445 1284 695 324 704 311 680 668 303 1231 791 729 424 690 2201 1978 500 271 285 671 705 342 302 899 202 3322 1332 246 431 1857 497 602 677 272 1292 255 1992 601 659 1305 1561 192 211 490 409 238 378 1643 574 869 399 430 155 419 1183 476 334 408 236 294 472 729 162 447 1277 375 536 225 542 339 955 547 690 301 759 375 753 384 705 1287 269 593 128 357 943 816 476 407 1108 534 511 1068 876 320 696 422 552 557 564 849 1541 738 2114 998 1362 881 3648 4218 365 1199 393 256 2462 1404 633 131 228 2941 342 1057 158 123 939 206 325 594 954 858 326 451 312 1527 777 1274 119 591 207 353 218 724 217 911 916 331 315 1124 1577 292 1179 849 421 1875 848 476 1317 662 500 1159 772 1117 701 391 766 195 536 266 1633 286 284 184 1907 362 327 382 593 91 135 1339 1652 561 393 1514 317 363 4020 1405 643 890 439 199 352 400 744 98 705 402 587 325 270 600 514 332 383 946 931 670 1446 334 511 1198 565 369 317 1635 964 1464 526 258 1768 428 1004 519 748 1531 343 320 206 599 618 494 254 854 357 549 345 273 817 1256 453 274 466 1688 1465 1019 1158 1321 431 547 456 445 328 396 474 71 719 145 518 477 777 2135 1248 474 402 2036 349 594 1383 398 395 413 430 627 411 907
Last daily increment 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 6 2 14 2 0 5 0 2 1 18 8 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 4 0 6 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 12 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 63 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 14 0 1 0 7 36 4 2 1 1 1 9 0 0 1 7 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 9 1 2 0 3 1 4 6 8 8 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 15 0 3 1 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 4 8 0 1 5 2 1 19 2 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 4 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 2 10 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Last week 1 1 5 0 4 12 13 0 4 11 26 0 12 1 6 2 15 13 47 15 51 7 0 44 1 6 5 162 28 1 15 5 3 9 2 5 2 6 4 7 8 33 5 4 13 12 20 4 11 24 3 1 1 16 37 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 10 2 17 13 0 5 10 2 1 17 2 23 1 22 3 9 4 7 0 1 1 2 3 14 7 24 5 15 1 3 7 6 0 4 4 2 4 5 8 2 7 4 2 2 4 6 0 7 1 4 1 4 10 12 2 7 13 3 2 1 0 9 70 3 5 15 5 2 8 2 3 2 1 5 3 18 1 4 3 104 3 10 1 44 347 4 9 3 5 22 24 3 1 5 59 0 11 7 0 3 1 0 2 2 5 0 1 0 6 7 8 0 1 3 2 5 6 0 3 3 0 10 42 8 2 13 19 15 42 16 56 49 5 7 11 5 10 2 1 2 6 3 0 78 5 3 6 34 8 6 4 0 1 2 31 25 0 2 11 4 5 62 11 7 7 3 1 8 2 4 0 6 6 0 1 5 6 8 1 2 4 7 11 7 1 18 4 3 2 1 8 5 28 6 1 6 3 5 4 9 20 4 5 2 5 3 3 3 15 5 5 1 1 23 12 4 0 5 56 11 7 10 7 1 2 3 6 4 5 2 0 4 2 2 2 5 14 7 0 3 14 9 7 7 3 0 6 5 5 0 5
Days since peak 85 79 71 71 91 86 83 90 103 106 77 103 82 101 56 98 82 101 108 61 56 88 82 97 98 81 96 67 80 105 105 101 84 74 104 59 113 85 103 58 78 92 103 92 92 79 102 83 60 84 97 101 65 79 64 67 62 93 83 89 67 81 98 80 78 89 80 104 96 78 100 106 108 82 84 81 57 90 104 77 75 83 85 90 79 79 85 84 78 81 77 107 104 106 106 83 101 82 72 59 104 37 101 84 81 85 101 59 103 95 102 102 85 80 105 106 80 106 77 85 75 82 105 85 108 87 105 87 81 107 67 66 83 79 116 110 67 92 78 93 77 100 106 105 86 24 87 106 106 78 100 98 73 109 101 101 46 102 108 66 102 104 77 78 104 79 65 104 106 103 71 104 80 82 105 74 106 82 66 78 102 92 92 104 90 80 86 78 58 99 99 71 86 86 66 92 101 78 90 92 46 112 79 100 80 86 56 83 71 87 86 95 63 80 92 107 82 78 103 80 104 108 80 77 111 44 108 85 99 83 106 72 71 107 78 106 61 84 74 110 85 82 104 104 85 102 85 85 86 101 99 80 76 90 101 100 94 95 92 95 59 110 93 85 58 88 79 100 87 83 106 89 83 105 104 57 73 106 78 83 108 107 100 107 89 87 82 68 60 92 82 80 79 82 86 114 85 67 85 92 101 86 86 83 85 84 84 102 80 86 79

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-10 to 2020-07-16

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrentBristolBroxbourneBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneElmbridgeEnfieldFolkestone and HytheFyldeGraveshamGreenwichHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowKetteringKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayMeltonNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth LincolnshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPortsmouthPrestonRedbridgeRibble ValleyRochdaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSt AlbansStockportStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSwindonTamesideThanetTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWealdenWiganWiltshireWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWychavon
2020-07-09 1290 778 1599 1914 790 562 1272 1061 4845 489 1055 1026 1855 814 4336 452 1745 1291 284 445 1284 695 311 680 668 1231 791 2201 1978 899 3322 1332 1857 677 1292 1992 659 1561 378 1643 574 399 419 1183 729 447 542 955 375 753 705 1287 943 816 1108 1068 564 2114 1362 3648 4218 1199 2462 1404 2941 1057 158 1527 777 1274 724 315 1124 1577 1179 849 421 1875 848 476 1317 500 1159 1117 195 1633 184 1907 362 327 1339 1652 1514 4020 1405 643 890 352 705 402 600 514 931 670 1446 511 1635 1464 526 1768 748 1531 854 817 1256 1688 1465 1019 1158 1321 445 2135 1248 2036 349 594 1383 413
2020-07-10 1294 780 1599 1918 792 562 1287 1062 4854 491 1055 1028 1863 814 4354 461 1747 1293 286 446 1286 697 312 682 670 1233 795 2210 1983 900 3324 1333 1860 677 1294 2010 661 1567 379 1643 576 401 420 1184 740 448 543 956 377 754 705 1288 944 842 1111 1069 566 2132 1363 3650 4279 1201 2467 1409 2952 1059 159 1530 779 1276 725 317 1130 1578 1182 852 424 1875 850 476 1323 500 1163 1119 196 1645 184 1915 363 328 1343 1655 1516 4034 1408 645 891 352 706 403 601 515 932 670 1447 513 1638 1468 526 1769 749 1533 857 821 1258 1695 1465 1019 1160 1322 446 2137 1249 2036 350 595 1385 414
2020-07-11 1298 782 1600 1922 793 562 1288 1064 4862 494 1058 1029 1870 815 4372 468 1749 1294 287 447 1289 701 314 683 673 1236 798 2211 1988 901 3327 1335 1862 679 1295 2011 663 1568 381 1643 579 403 420 1185 741 449 544 957 379 755 705 1290 946 869 1113 1071 569 2150 1364 3652 4341 1203 2472 1414 2963 1061 160 1530 780 1277 726 318 1135 1579 1184 854 427 1875 852 482 1330 500 1167 1120 196 1656 185 1923 364 328 1346 1658 1518 4048 1411 646 891 352 706 403 601 516 933 671 1449 516 1640 1473 526 1769 751 1536 859 827 1259 1702 1467 1019 1162 1323 447 2138 1250 2037 352 596 1387 414
2020-07-12 1301 783 1602 1926 795 562 1292 1065 4871 496 1066 1031 1878 816 4391 477 1751 1295 289 448 1291 704 315 685 675 1238 802 2215 1993 903 3329 1336 1865 681 1297 2013 665 1570 382 1643 581 405 421 1186 742 450 546 958 381 756 705 1291 947 898 1116 1072 571 2167 1365 3655 4402 1205 2477 1419 2974 1063 161 1531 782 1279 726 320 1141 1580 1186 857 430 1875 854 495 1336 500 1171 1122 197 1667 186 1931 365 329 1350 1661 1520 4061 1414 648 892 352 707 404 602 517 933 671 1450 518 1643 1477 527 1770 752 1538 862 832 1261 1709 1468 1019 1163 1325 448 2140 1251 2037 353 596 1389 415
2020-07-13 1305 785 1603 1930 796 562 1292 1066 4879 499 1075 1033 1885 816 4410 487 1753 1296 291 450 1293 709 316 686 677 1240 806 2217 1998 904 3331 1338 1867 683 1299 2019 667 1572 384 1643 583 406 422 1188 744 451 547 959 383 757 705 1292 949 926 1118 1073 574 2184 1366 3657 4464 1207 2482 1423 2985 1064 162 1532 783 1280 727 321 1146 1581 1189 859 433 1875 856 507 1342 500 1174 1123 198 1678 186 1939 366 329 1353 1664 1521 4075 1417 649 892 352 708 405 602 518 934 671 1451 521 1645 1481 528 1771 754 1541 864 838 1262 1715 1470 1019 1165 1326 449 2142 1253 2037 354 597 1391 415
2020-07-14 1309 787 1605 1933 798 562 1295 1068 4888 501 1079 1034 1893 817 4428 495 1755 1298 292 451 1295 718 317 688 680 1243 809 2218 2003 905 3334 1339 1869 685 1300 2025 669 1573 386 1643 585 408 423 1189 746 452 548 959 385 758 705 1293 950 955 1121 1074 576 2202 1367 3659 4526 1209 2487 1428 2996 1066 163 1537 785 1282 728 323 1151 1582 1191 861 436 1875 858 529 1348 500 1178 1125 198 1689 187 1947 367 330 1357 1667 1523 4088 1420 651 893 352 708 405 603 520 935 671 1452 523 1648 1485 528 1771 756 1543 866 846 1264 1722 1471 1019 1167 1327 450 2144 1254 2037 356 598 1393 416
2020-07-15 1312 789 1606 1937 800 562 1296 1069 4896 504 1088 1036 1900 818 4447 503 1756 1299 294 452 1297 721 318 689 682 1245 813 2221 2007 906 3336 1340 1871 689 1302 2028 671 1575 387 1643 587 410 423 1190 747 453 549 960 387 759 705 1294 951 984 1124 1076 579 2219 1367 3660 4589 1210 2492 1433 3007 1068 164 1537 786 1284 729 324 1157 1583 1193 864 439 1875 859 541 1354 500 1182 1126 199 1700 187 1955 368 331 1360 1670 1525 4101 1423 652 893 352 709 406 603 521 938 671 1454 525 1650 1490 529 1772 757 1546 869 849 1265 1728 1473 1019 1168 1328 451 2145 1255 2037 357 598 1395 416
2020-07-16 1316 790 1608 1941 801 562 1299 1071 4905 506 1100 1038 1908 818 4466 512 1758 1300 295 453 1299 726 319 691 684 1248 816 2225 2012 907 3338 1342 1874 691 1303 2030 673 1576 389 1643 589 412 424 1191 749 454 550 961 389 760 705 1296 953 1013 1126 1077 581 2237 1368 3662 4652 1212 2497 1437 3018 1070 165 1538 788 1285 730 326 1162 1584 1196 866 442 1875 861 549 1360 500 1186 1128 200 1712 188 1963 369 331 1363 1673 1527 4115 1427 654 894 352 710 406 604 522 938 671 1455 528 1653 1494 530 1772 759 1548 871 852 1267 1735 1474 1019 1168 1329 452 2147 1256 2037 358 599 1397 417

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-10 to 2020-07-16

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrentBristolBroxbourneBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneElmbridgeEnfieldFolkestone and HytheFyldeGraveshamGreenwichHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowKetteringKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayMeltonNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth LincolnshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPortsmouthPrestonRedbridgeRibble ValleyRochdaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSt AlbansStockportStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSwindonTamesideThanetTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWealdenWiganWiltshireWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWychavon
2020-07-09 1290 778 1599 1914 790 562 1272 1061 4845 489 1055 1026 1855 814 4336 452 1745 1291 284 445 1284 695 311 680 668 1231 791 2201 1978 899 3322 1332 1857 677 1292 1992 659 1561 378 1643 574 399 419 1183 729 447 542 955 375 753 705 1287 943 816 1108 1068 564 2114 1362 3648 4218 1199 2462 1404 2941 1057 158 1527 777 1274 724 315 1124 1577 1179 849 421 1875 848 476 1317 500 1159 1117 195 1633 184 1907 362 327 1339 1652 1514 4020 1405 643 890 352 705 402 600 514 931 670 1446 511 1635 1464 526 1768 748 1531 854 817 1256 1688 1465 1019 1158 1321 445 2135 1248 2036 349 594 1383 413
2020-07-10 1292 780 1600 1916 791 562 1273 1061 4852 491 1056 1027 1861 814 4351 457 1746 1292 284 445 1285 697 312 680 670 1232 794 2204 1979 900 3322 1333 1858 677 1294 1997 661 1563 379 1644 576 399 419 1184 731 447 542 955 376 754 705 1287 944 823 1110 1069 565 2133 1363 3652 4270 1200 2467 1406 2950 1059 159 1527 778 1275 724 316 1128 1578 1181 850 423 1879 849 479 1318 500 1160 1118 196 1638 184 1914 362 327 1340 1653 1515 4029 1407 644 890 352 705 402 600 515 932 671 1448 514 1637 1467 526 1768 749 1532 856 818 1257 1689 1465 1020 1160 1322 446 2136 1249 2037 350 594 1384 413
2020-07-11 1296 782 1600 1919 792 563 1276 1062 4860 493 1058 1029 1869 814 4374 462 1748 1293 285 445 1287 700 313 681 672 1234 798 2205 1981 901 3323 1334 1860 678 1297 2000 663 1564 380 1645 578 400 420 1185 733 448 543 956 378 755 706 1288 945 829 1113 1071 566 2151 1363 3656 4320 1200 2472 1408 2960 1061 159 1527 780 1277 725 318 1134 1579 1183 851 426 1885 849 484 1321 501 1161 1120 196 1647 184 1920 363 327 1342 1654 1516 4041 1410 645 891 353 705 402 601 516 932 672 1449 517 1639 1470 526 1769 750 1534 858 819 1258 1694 1466 1021 1162 1322 446 2137 1250 2038 351 595 1385 413
2020-07-12 1299 783 1602 1922 793 564 1279 1062 4868 496 1065 1030 1874 815 4398 468 1750 1294 285 446 1288 703 315 682 674 1236 802 2207 1985 902 3325 1336 1861 680 1300 2003 665 1566 381 1646 580 401 420 1186 734 449 544 957 380 756 707 1288 946 837 1116 1072 568 2169 1364 3660 4380 1201 2477 1410 2970 1063 160 1528 781 1278 726 319 1139 1580 1185 852 429 1890 850 493 1329 501 1162 1122 197 1661 185 1926 364 328 1343 1656 1517 4053 1412 646 892 353 706 403 601 517 932 674 1449 519 1641 1474 526 1769 751 1536 861 821 1258 1701 1467 1022 1163 1323 448 2139 1251 2039 353 595 1386 414
2020-07-13 1302 785 1603 1925 794 565 1280 1063 4876 498 1074 1032 1885 815 4422 474 1752 1296 285 446 1290 708 316 682 677 1238 806 2209 1989 903 3326 1337 1863 682 1303 2009 667 1567 384 1648 582 403 420 1188 736 449 545 958 382 757 707 1288 947 845 1119 1074 570 2186 1366 3666 4451 1202 2483 1412 2980 1064 161 1528 783 1280 727 321 1145 1581 1187 853 432 1896 851 506 1335 502 1164 1124 198 1672 186 1933 364 328 1345 1658 1518 4064 1415 647 893 353 706 403 602 518 933 675 1451 523 1643 1479 526 1769 753 1538 864 822 1259 1708 1469 1024 1165 1324 449 2141 1252 2040 354 595 1387 414
2020-07-14 1306 787 1604 1927 795 566 1284 1064 4884 501 1078 1033 1892 816 4446 482 1754 1297 285 447 1291 715 318 684 680 1240 810 2210 1994 904 3328 1338 1864 684 1306 2016 669 1569 386 1649 585 404 421 1189 739 451 546 958 384 758 710 1289 949 853 1122 1075 572 2204 1367 3670 4511 1202 2488 1416 2990 1067 162 1530 784 1281 727 322 1150 1582 1189 855 435 1901 852 518 1341 502 1165 1125 198 1681 186 1941 365 328 1348 1659 1520 4076 1418 648 894 354 707 403 602 519 934 676 1452 525 1645 1483 527 1770 754 1540 865 825 1260 1714 1470 1025 1166 1325 450 2142 1253 2040 355 596 1389 415
2020-07-15 1309 789 1605 1930 797 567 1289 1065 4892 504 1084 1035 1900 817 4471 490 1756 1299 286 448 1293 718 319 685 682 1242 814 2214 1998 905 3329 1340 1866 687 1308 2020 671 1572 387 1651 587 405 421 1190 742 452 547 959 386 759 713 1289 950 861 1125 1077 574 2224 1368 3676 4576 1203 2494 1419 3001 1069 163 1531 786 1283 728 324 1156 1583 1191 856 438 1907 854 526 1348 503 1166 1127 199 1691 187 1949 366 329 1351 1661 1521 4088 1420 649 894 355 707 404 603 520 935 677 1453 528 1648 1487 527 1770 756 1543 868 826 1261 1720 1472 1026 1167 1326 451 2144 1254 2041 357 596 1390 415
2020-07-16 1313 791 1607 1933 798 568 1293 1065 4900 506 1094 1037 1907 817 4495 498 1758 1300 286 448 1294 722 320 686 683 1244 818 2217 2003 906 3331 1341 1867 688 1313 2025 673 1575 389 1652 589 407 421 1192 745 453 548 960 388 760 714 1290 951 870 1128 1078 577 2243 1369 3683 4635 1204 2499 1421 3011 1070 164 1531 787 1285 729 325 1162 1584 1193 857 441 1912 855 533 1353 503 1167 1129 200 1700 187 1957 367 329 1354 1663 1523 4100 1423 650 895 355 707 404 603 521 936 679 1455 530 1651 1491 527 1771 757 1545 870 827 1262 1726 1473 1027 1168 1326 451 2145 1255 2043 358 597 1392 415

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.