COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-13 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-07-13

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-07-13

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1204-1804-0304-0204-1904-0406-0506-3004-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1204-2204-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-1004-1604-0303-3005-0504-2105-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1404-1303-2503-2404-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2703-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0104-0105-1104-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-1004-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1903-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1503-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0804-0505-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-2103-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2603-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0804-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 48 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 27 21 6 34 8 21 8 56 16 9 52 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 10 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 13 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 33 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 65 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 15 19 23 43 16 28 22 39 32 75 73 6 37 8 4 54 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 11 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 15 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 27 9 15 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 22 8 11 6 9 24 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 18 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 13 8 10 -4 25 4 76 88 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 24 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 38 23 7 3 44 30 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -22 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 85 9 12 -3 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -10 13 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 22 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 8 34 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 8 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 26 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 14 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 7 50 -10 6 3 44 13 23 -5 15 18 1 9 13 10 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 13 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 32 38 29 22 21 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 27 41 23 17 40 28 81 108 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 41 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 58 43 24 21 55 41 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 103 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 33 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 91 33 20 18 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 58 24 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 48 19 30 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 27 56 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 29 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 48 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 43 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 43 16 31 41 16 25 36 27 31 26 35 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 25 64 10 28 47 60 30 47 24 29 40 17 35 49 23 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 31 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 44 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 186 346 439 321 570 1300 778 259 714 1610 1922 598 797 941 566 338 1277 1067 4895 494 1098 1030 345 1874 487 815 381 4454 461 431 1748 276 779 1294 407 1522 526 286 429 449 1287 713 324 705 312 683 678 309 1236 796 729 425 692 2205 1987 504 271 288 673 708 342 308 899 202 3326 1337 248 432 1860 503 604 682 272 1294 255 2004 605 663 1309 1566 192 213 491 409 239 381 1645 587 870 409 431 158 421 1193 479 336 408 239 298 478 732 162 449 1280 376 536 225 550 339 959 550 693 301 758 377 763 384 706 1290 269 593 128 359 949 832 476 407 1113 536 512 1074 877 322 699 422 554 558 577 849 1545 740 2169 1001 1364 884 3692 4394 368 1201 393 256 2474 1452 634 131 228 2983 342 1061 158 123 942 207 325 596 955 861 327 452 315 1532 780 1281 119 591 207 354 218 724 218 913 919 331 319 1140 1578 294 1182 851 430 1886 850 499 1348 662 500 1165 775 1125 701 391 766 195 536 267 1662 287 284 186 1933 367 327 387 594 92 135 1348 1664 561 393 1524 318 366 4055 1408 646 899 440 200 354 402 746 98 705 402 588 325 270 602 515 332 384 947 937 673 1450 335 515 1198 568 373 317 1639 964 1471 526 258 1772 429 1009 522 753 1536 344 320 208 608 620 495 254 862 357 554 345 274 819 1266 466 274 468 1727 1486 1023 1167 1324 431 548 456 453 333 398 475 71 720 149 520 477 780 2137 1252 476 406 2038 353 598 1387 400 399 415 433 627 411 911
Last daily increment 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 11 1 12 0 0 3 0 1 0 34 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 5 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 13 1 0 1 18 31 0 1 0 0 3 6 1 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 2 0 6 3 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 1 1 1 5 0 2 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 10 6 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Last week 1 1 3 1 4 11 3 0 5 15 12 0 9 0 6 2 10 14 67 7 65 8 0 28 0 3 3 167 35 0 5 1 9 5 1 3 4 7 4 8 5 27 2 2 3 11 12 3 8 13 0 1 3 10 29 5 1 4 3 2 0 7 4 0 13 6 2 1 5 6 3 11 1 10 0 17 4 7 5 7 0 2 2 0 1 6 4 20 2 16 1 4 7 7 4 3 2 3 5 7 6 0 4 4 1 0 1 10 0 5 4 3 1 2 4 11 1 4 8 1 1 0 2 7 83 1 0 6 5 2 11 1 4 3 1 3 2 19 1 5 2 87 4 3 2 63 265 7 8 2 2 17 56 2 0 1 61 0 6 2 0 4 1 0 2 1 5 1 2 3 6 5 11 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 2 4 0 6 26 2 4 4 11 13 23 12 37 48 1 4 11 4 11 2 0 1 2 0 1 54 2 3 5 37 11 4 7 1 1 0 25 25 0 1 17 4 5 62 7 8 14 3 1 6 2 3 0 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 3 4 12 6 5 2 5 3 3 4 0 7 1 19 5 1 7 2 9 6 5 13 1 2 2 9 2 2 0 13 1 7 0 1 8 15 17 0 6 58 26 7 10 5 1 1 0 10 6 5 1 0 1 5 4 1 5 8 5 2 5 7 7 8 6 2 4 4 3 2 0 7
Days since peak 89 83 75 75 95 88 87 94 107 110 81 107 86 105 60 102 86 105 112 65 60 92 86 101 102 85 100 38 13 84 109 109 105 88 78 108 63 117 89 107 62 82 96 107 96 96 83 106 87 64 88 101 105 69 83 68 71 66 97 87 93 71 85 102 84 82 93 84 108 100 82 104 110 112 86 88 85 61 94 108 81 79 87 89 94 83 83 89 88 82 85 81 111 105 110 110 87 105 86 76 63 108 41 105 88 85 89 105 63 107 99 106 106 89 84 109 110 84 110 81 89 79 86 109 12 112 91 109 91 85 111 71 70 87 83 120 114 71 96 82 97 81 104 110 109 90 29 91 110 111 82 104 102 77 113 105 105 50 106 112 70 108 108 81 82 108 83 69 108 110 107 75 108 84 86 109 78 110 86 70 82 106 96 96 108 94 84 90 82 62 103 103 63 75 90 90 70 96 105 82 94 96 50 116 83 104 84 90 60 87 75 91 90 99 67 84 96 111 86 82 107 84 108 112 84 81 115 48 112 89 103 85 110 76 75 111 82 110 65 88 78 114 89 86 108 108 89 106 89 89 90 105 103 84 80 94 105 104 98 99 96 99 63 114 97 89 62 92 83 104 91 87 110 93 87 109 108 61 77 110 82 87 112 111 104 111 93 91 86 72 64 96 86 84 83 86 90 118 89 71 89 96 105 90 90 87 89 88 88 106 84 90 83

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-14 to 2020-07-20

DateAshfordBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBradfordBraintreeBrighton and HoveBroxbourneBurnleyCalderdaleCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneElmbridgeEnfieldFenlandFolkestone and HytheGraveshamHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowKetteringKirkleesLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaStockportStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSuttonSwaleTamesideTelford and WrekinThanetThurrockTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWealdenWellingboroughWiganWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonYork
2020-07-13 1300 1610 1922 797 566 1277 1067 4895 494 1098 1030 1874 4454 461 779 286 449 713 683 678 1236 796 2205 1987 308 3326 1337 503 682 1294 2004 663 1566 381 587 409 421 1193 478 732 550 763 1290 949 832 1113 1074 577 2169 3692 4394 368 1201 2474 1452 2983 1061 1532 1281 319 1140 851 430 1886 850 499 1348 1165 1125 1662 1933 367 387 1348 1664 1524 4055 1408 646 899 354 937 673 1639 1471 1772 1009 522 1536 608 862 554 819 1266 466 468 1727 1486 1023 1167 453 333 2137 2038 353 598 1387 911
2020-07-14 1303 1610 1925 798 567 1282 1069 4904 496 1098 1031 1880 4481 463 780 286 450 718 684 681 1238 799 2216 1991 308 3328 1338 504 685 1296 2023 665 1571 383 587 411 422 1195 480 733 551 765 1291 950 841 1115 1077 579 2185 3701 4446 369 1201 2478 1458 2993 1062 1535 1283 320 1145 853 433 1891 852 504 1354 1167 1127 1671 1940 368 388 1351 1667 1526 4066 1410 647 901 355 937 674 1641 1474 1773 1010 523 1539 609 865 556 820 1268 466 468 1735 1489 1024 1168 454 334 2139 2039 354 599 1389 912
2020-07-15 1305 1610 1928 800 569 1283 1070 4913 498 1104 1033 1887 4507 466 781 287 451 722 686 684 1240 802 2220 1996 308 3330 1339 504 689 1299 2029 666 1572 384 587 413 422 1196 482 733 553 766 1292 952 848 1118 1080 582 2202 3709 4500 369 1202 2483 1463 3003 1063 1535 1285 321 1151 854 435 1896 853 508 1360 1169 1129 1680 1947 369 388 1354 1669 1528 4078 1412 648 902 356 940 676 1642 1477 1774 1010 524 1542 610 867 557 820 1269 467 469 1742 1491 1024 1169 455 335 2140 2041 356 600 1391 912
2020-07-16 1308 1613 1931 801 570 1284 1072 4922 500 1117 1034 1893 4534 468 782 287 452 727 687 686 1241 805 2224 2000 308 3331 1341 505 691 1301 2034 668 1573 386 587 415 422 1197 484 733 554 768 1293 953 855 1120 1083 585 2218 3717 4552 370 1202 2487 1468 3012 1064 1537 1286 323 1156 856 438 1901 855 512 1366 1171 1131 1689 1954 370 389 1358 1672 1530 4089 1415 649 904 357 942 678 1644 1481 1774 1011 524 1545 611 869 559 821 1271 468 469 1749 1493 1025 1171 457 335 2142 2042 357 600 1392 913
2020-07-17 1310 1614 1934 803 572 1285 1073 4931 502 1124 1036 1900 4561 470 783 288 453 731 688 689 1243 808 2226 2005 308 3333 1342 506 692 1303 2040 670 1574 387 587 416 423 1199 486 735 555 769 1295 955 862 1123 1085 587 2234 3726 4606 370 1202 2492 1473 3022 1065 1538 1288 324 1161 858 440 1906 857 516 1372 1173 1132 1699 1960 371 390 1361 1675 1532 4101 1417 651 906 358 945 679 1646 1484 1775 1011 525 1548 612 872 560 822 1272 468 470 1756 1495 1026 1174 458 336 2143 2044 358 601 1394 914
2020-07-18 1313 1615 1937 804 574 1289 1075 4940 504 1131 1037 1906 4587 472 784 288 454 736 690 691 1245 811 2228 2009 308 3335 1343 507 694 1305 2043 671 1575 389 587 418 423 1200 487 738 556 770 1296 956 869 1125 1088 590 2250 3734 4661 371 1202 2496 1479 3032 1066 1538 1289 325 1166 860 443 1911 858 520 1378 1175 1134 1708 1967 372 391 1364 1677 1533 4112 1419 652 908 359 946 681 1647 1487 1776 1012 526 1551 614 874 562 822 1274 469 470 1763 1497 1027 1175 459 337 2145 2045 360 602 1396 914
2020-07-19 1316 1618 1940 806 575 1291 1076 4949 507 1140 1038 1913 4613 474 785 288 455 740 691 694 1246 814 2229 2013 308 3337 1344 507 695 1308 2049 673 1576 391 587 420 424 1201 489 738 557 771 1297 957 876 1127 1090 593 2267 3743 4715 372 1203 2500 1484 3041 1067 1538 1291 326 1172 862 446 1916 860 524 1384 1177 1136 1717 1974 373 392 1367 1680 1535 4124 1421 653 910 360 946 682 1649 1490 1776 1012 527 1553 615 876 563 822 1276 470 471 1770 1500 1027 1176 460 337 2146 2046 361 603 1397 915
2020-07-20 1318 1622 1942 807 577 1292 1078 4958 509 1150 1040 1919 4640 477 786 289 456 745 692 697 1248 817 2231 2018 308 3339 1346 508 696 1310 2054 675 1578 392 587 422 424 1203 491 738 559 773 1298 959 883 1130 1093 595 2283 3751 4770 372 1203 2505 1489 3051 1068 1538 1293 328 1177 863 448 1921 862 528 1391 1179 1138 1727 1980 374 392 1371 1683 1537 4135 1423 654 912 361 946 684 1651 1494 1777 1013 528 1556 616 878 565 822 1277 471 471 1776 1502 1028 1178 461 338 2147 2048 362 604 1399 916

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-14 to 2020-07-20

DateAshfordBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBradfordBraintreeBrighton and HoveBroxbourneBurnleyCalderdaleCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneElmbridgeEnfieldFenlandFolkestone and HytheGraveshamHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowKetteringKirkleesLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaStockportStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSuttonSwaleTamesideTelford and WrekinThanetThurrockTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWealdenWellingboroughWiganWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonYork
2020-07-13 1300 1610 1922 797 566 1277 1067 4895 494 1098 1030 1874 4454 461 779 286 449 713 683 678 1236 796 2205 1987 308 3326 1337 503 682 1294 2004 663 1566 381 587 409 421 1193 478 732 550 763 1290 949 832 1113 1074 577 2169 3692 4394 368 1201 2474 1452 2983 1061 1532 1281 319 1140 851 430 1886 850 499 1348 1165 1125 1662 1933 367 387 1348 1664 1524 4055 1408 646 899 354 937 673 1639 1471 1772 1009 522 1536 608 862 554 819 1266 466 468 1727 1486 1023 1167 453 333 2137 2038 353 598 1387 911
2020-07-14 1302 1610 1923 798 567 1277 1068 4901 495 1100 1031 1876 4467 463 779 286 449 718 684 681 1237 798 2206 1990 308 3327 1338 503 684 1295 2007 664 1567 382 589 411 421 1193 478 732 551 763 1290 951 833 1115 1075 579 2184 3694 4436 368 1201 2478 1456 2991 1062 1534 1282 320 1144 852 432 1889 851 506 1355 1166 1126 1669 1935 368 387 1350 1665 1526 4063 1409 647 899 354 938 674 1639 1473 1772 1009 523 1538 608 864 554 821 1267 467 468 1730 1487 1023 1168 454 333 2138 2038 354 599 1388 912
2020-07-15 1304 1611 1926 800 567 1278 1069 4907 498 1106 1032 1882 4487 467 780 287 450 722 686 682 1238 802 2208 1995 309 3328 1339 504 687 1297 2009 666 1568 384 591 413 422 1194 479 733 552 764 1291 952 836 1117 1076 582 2201 3698 4492 369 1202 2482 1459 3001 1064 1534 1284 321 1150 854 434 1894 853 511 1364 1167 1128 1678 1940 369 388 1355 1667 1527 4073 1411 647 900 355 940 675 1641 1478 1773 1010 523 1541 609 866 555 822 1268 469 469 1735 1488 1024 1169 456 334 2140 2040 355 599 1389 912
2020-07-16 1306 1612 1928 801 568 1279 1070 4915 500 1118 1033 1887 4509 471 781 287 452 727 688 684 1239 805 2211 1999 310 3332 1341 505 689 1298 2011 668 1569 386 594 415 423 1195 479 733 553 765 1292 953 839 1120 1078 584 2218 3702 4541 370 1203 2486 1464 3011 1066 1536 1286 322 1155 856 436 1898 855 516 1372 1168 1130 1689 1945 370 389 1358 1670 1529 4084 1413 648 900 356 942 677 1642 1482 1774 1011 524 1543 609 869 555 823 1269 470 469 1742 1489 1025 1171 456 334 2142 2041 356 600 1390 913
2020-07-17 1308 1613 1930 803 569 1280 1071 4923 502 1125 1035 1893 4532 472 782 287 453 733 689 685 1240 808 2212 2004 310 3334 1342 505 691 1300 2013 669 1570 387 596 418 424 1195 480 734 554 766 1293 954 841 1122 1079 587 2236 3708 4595 370 1204 2490 1468 3021 1067 1537 1287 324 1161 858 439 1903 856 521 1380 1168 1132 1698 1951 372 390 1362 1672 1531 4095 1415 649 901 357 945 679 1644 1485 1775 1011 525 1546 610 871 556 824 1271 473 469 1748 1490 1026 1173 458 335 2143 2042 358 601 1391 914
2020-07-18 1310 1614 1932 805 570 1283 1072 4931 504 1131 1036 1900 4556 474 783 288 454 737 690 688 1241 812 2214 2009 311 3335 1344 506 693 1301 2015 671 1571 388 598 420 425 1196 480 736 556 767 1294 956 844 1124 1080 589 2253 3714 4640 371 1204 2495 1474 3030 1069 1537 1289 325 1167 859 441 1908 858 525 1385 1169 1134 1707 1957 373 390 1365 1673 1533 4106 1417 650 901 358 946 680 1645 1489 1775 1012 525 1548 611 873 556 825 1272 474 470 1754 1492 1027 1174 459 335 2144 2043 359 602 1392 915
2020-07-19 1312 1616 1935 806 571 1286 1073 4940 506 1138 1037 1905 4579 477 783 288 454 741 692 690 1242 815 2216 2013 312 3337 1345 507 695 1302 2019 673 1573 389 600 421 426 1197 481 738 557 768 1294 957 847 1127 1081 592 2271 3719 4689 372 1205 2499 1479 3040 1071 1538 1290 326 1173 861 444 1913 860 529 1390 1170 1136 1717 1961 375 391 1368 1674 1535 4117 1419 651 902 359 947 682 1647 1493 1776 1012 526 1551 611 875 557 825 1273 476 470 1763 1494 1028 1176 460 336 2145 2044 360 602 1393 915
2020-07-20 1315 1618 1937 808 572 1287 1074 4948 508 1146 1039 1916 4603 480 784 289 455 746 693 695 1243 819 2218 2018 312 3338 1347 507 697 1303 2022 675 1575 392 602 423 426 1199 482 739 558 769 1295 958 851 1130 1083 595 2288 3725 4750 372 1205 2503 1483 3049 1072 1538 1292 327 1179 862 446 1917 862 535 1397 1171 1137 1727 1968 376 392 1372 1676 1537 4128 1421 652 903 359 948 684 1649 1497 1777 1013 527 1553 612 878 558 826 1273 478 471 1769 1496 1029 1177 461 336 2147 2045 361 603 1394 916

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.