COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-07-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-07-14

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1204-1804-0304-0204-1904-0406-0506-3004-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1204-2204-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-1004-1604-0303-3005-0504-2105-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1404-1303-2503-2404-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2903-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0104-0106-2904-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-1004-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1903-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1503-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0804-0505-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-1703-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2603-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0804-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 48 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 27 21 6 34 8 21 8 56 16 9 51 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 10 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 13 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 33 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 65 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 15 19 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 73 6 37 8 4 54 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 24 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 9 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 15 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 43 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 27 9 15 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 22 8 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 18 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 13 8 10 -4 25 4 76 88 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 24 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 38 23 7 3 44 30 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -22 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 85 9 12 -3 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -10 15 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 22 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 8 83 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 8 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 26 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 14 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 7 50 -10 6 3 44 13 19 -5 15 18 1 9 13 10 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 13 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 32 38 29 22 21 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 27 41 23 17 40 28 82 108 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 41 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 58 43 24 21 55 41 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 103 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 33 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 91 33 20 18 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 58 26 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 48 19 30 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 27 106 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 29 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 48 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 43 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 36 27 31 26 35 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 25 64 10 28 47 61 29 43 24 29 40 17 35 49 22 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 31 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 44 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 187 347 439 323 572 1306 780 260 716 1615 1925 598 798 943 570 338 1284 1068 4922 498 1106 1031 347 1880 487 818 382 4490 476 431 1748 277 783 1296 407 1524 526 286 429 451 1292 728 325 707 312 688 681 309 1244 797 733 427 693 2211 1995 505 272 288 672 710 342 309 899 202 3329 1340 248 433 1861 507 605 685 273 1301 256 2008 605 666 1309 1570 193 215 491 410 241 383 1645 590 871 413 432 159 421 1194 479 336 409 239 298 480 734 162 453 1282 377 536 225 553 339 960 550 692 302 760 379 763 384 709 1295 269 593 128 360 952 835 478 407 1116 536 513 1076 880 323 699 422 556 558 583 849 1546 744 2204 997 1369 884 3702 4460 368 1204 394 256 2477 1459 634 131 228 2992 342 1064 158 123 943 207 325 597 957 862 327 452 318 1532 780 1289 119 591 207 354 219 724 218 912 920 334 319 1155 1578 294 1184 852 434 1893 851 504 1360 663 503 1166 777 1127 702 392 769 196 536 268 1685 288 285 186 1945 367 327 388 594 93 135 1351 1679 561 393 1529 319 369 4070 1409 650 901 440 200 354 403 745 99 706 402 589 325 273 605 516 332 384 948 937 680 1451 335 516 1198 570 373 317 1645 969 1472 526 258 1772 429 1011 523 754 1538 344 320 209 610 620 495 254 868 357 556 345 275 821 1270 467 276 468 1749 1494 1029 1169 1326 432 548 456 455 333 398 478 72 720 150 521 479 785 2139 1258 475 409 2039 353 599 1389 400 403 415 434 628 411 912
Last daily increment 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 3 0 1 1 21 1 6 0 0 5 0 2 1 30 14 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 5 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 3 1 2 1 1 1 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 2 1 4 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 18 0 2 0 8 29 0 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 4 0 0 1 1 2 5 1 2 8 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 18 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 3 1 1 11 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 21 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Last week 2 2 2 3 6 16 3 1 4 19 12 0 6 2 9 1 14 9 85 11 63 7 2 29 0 6 2 170 32 0 4 2 12 5 0 5 2 5 3 10 8 38 0 3 2 11 15 3 14 6 4 3 4 13 29 4 1 4 2 4 0 8 2 0 13 8 2 2 4 8 3 9 1 11 1 19 3 10 5 9 1 4 2 1 3 7 2 19 2 19 2 5 2 7 4 2 1 3 5 9 6 0 7 5 2 0 1 13 0 5 4 3 1 2 3 10 0 5 10 1 1 0 3 8 82 2 0 9 3 3 11 4 3 2 1 5 1 21 1 4 5 103 4 6 2 61 271 7 7 2 1 15 59 1 0 1 54 0 8 1 0 4 1 0 3 3 5 1 1 6 6 3 17 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 5 3 5 37 2 3 5 6 14 21 9 36 47 1 2 11 5 12 1 1 3 1 0 2 66 2 4 3 41 7 1 8 1 2 0 14 37 0 1 22 4 7 59 6 9 12 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 2 0 4 5 3 0 3 3 7 9 6 1 4 3 5 3 0 13 5 10 4 1 5 2 7 6 5 8 1 1 3 11 2 1 0 15 1 6 0 2 9 15 13 2 4 70 32 10 11 5 1 1 0 9 5 1 4 0 1 6 3 2 8 9 10 2 7 5 5 6 5 2 7 2 4 3 0 5
Days since peak 90 84 76 76 96 89 88 95 108 111 82 108 87 106 61 103 87 106 113 66 61 93 87 102 103 86 101 39 14 85 110 110 106 89 79 109 64 118 90 108 63 83 97 108 97 97 84 107 88 65 89 102 106 70 84 69 72 67 98 88 94 72 86 103 85 83 94 85 109 101 83 105 111 113 87 89 86 62 95 109 82 80 88 90 95 84 84 90 89 83 86 82 112 106 111 111 88 106 87 77 64 109 42 106 89 86 90 106 64 108 100 107 107 90 85 110 111 85 111 82 90 80 87 110 13 113 92 110 92 86 112 72 71 88 84 121 115 72 97 83 98 82 105 111 110 91 30 92 111 112 83 105 103 78 114 106 106 51 107 113 71 107 109 82 83 109 84 70 109 111 108 76 109 85 87 110 79 111 87 71 83 107 97 97 109 95 85 91 83 63 104 104 15 76 91 91 71 97 106 83 95 97 51 117 84 105 85 91 61 88 76 92 91 100 68 85 97 112 87 83 108 85 109 113 85 82 116 49 113 90 104 86 111 77 76 112 83 111 66 89 79 115 90 87 109 109 90 107 90 90 91 106 104 85 81 95 106 105 99 100 97 100 64 115 98 90 63 93 88 105 92 88 111 94 88 110 109 62 78 111 83 88 113 112 105 112 94 92 87 73 65 97 87 85 84 87 91 119 90 72 90 97 106 91 91 88 90 89 89 107 85 91 84

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-21

DateAshfieldAshfordBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrighton and HoveBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEnfieldFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGraveshamHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowKetteringKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorthamptonNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeSalfordSandwellSeftonSevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkStockportStoke-on-TrentSuttonSwaleTamesideTelford and WrekinThanetThurrockTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWealdenWest LindseyWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWokinghamWorthing
2020-07-14 572 1306 1615 1925 798 570 1284 1068 4922 498 1106 1031 1880 818 4490 476 783 451 1292 728 688 681 1244 797 2211 1995 309 3329 1340 507 685 1301 2008 666 1570 383 590 413 1194 480 734 453 553 763 1295 952 835 1116 1076 583 2204 1369 3702 4460 368 1204 2477 1459 2992 1064 318 1532 1289 1155 852 434 1893 851 504 1360 1166 1127 1685 1945 367 388 1351 1679 1529 369 4070 1409 650 901 937 680 1451 1645 1472 1011 523 1538 610 868 556 821 1270 467 1749 1494 1029 1169 455 150 785 2139 1258 409 599 403
2020-07-15 573 1309 1615 1928 799 572 1290 1070 4934 500 1114 1032 1886 818 4517 476 784 452 1294 733 690 684 1245 800 2220 2000 309 3331 1342 508 689 1304 2022 668 1575 384 595 415 1196 481 742 454 554 765 1297 954 839 1118 1077 586 2222 1370 3710 4512 369 1205 2481 1465 3002 1066 319 1534 1291 1161 854 437 1899 853 512 1367 1167 1129 1696 1952 368 389 1354 1689 1531 370 4082 1411 651 902 940 682 1452 1647 1475 1011 524 1542 611 871 557 823 1272 468 1758 1499 1030 1170 456 151 786 2141 1259 410 600 404
2020-07-16 573 1312 1615 1930 801 573 1291 1071 4944 502 1121 1034 1892 818 4544 476 785 453 1295 738 691 686 1246 802 2223 2005 310 3333 1343 509 691 1307 2024 670 1576 386 600 417 1197 482 742 455 556 766 1298 955 843 1121 1078 588 2240 1372 3718 4565 369 1206 2485 1470 3011 1067 319 1536 1293 1167 855 439 1904 854 519 1373 1168 1131 1706 1959 369 390 1358 1698 1533 371 4093 1413 653 904 942 684 1454 1649 1478 1012 525 1546 613 873 558 825 1274 469 1766 1504 1032 1171 458 151 787 2142 1261 410 601 404
2020-07-17 574 1315 1615 1933 802 575 1291 1073 4955 505 1129 1035 1898 819 4570 476 787 454 1297 743 693 689 1248 805 2224 2009 310 3334 1344 510 693 1310 2025 672 1577 388 605 419 1199 483 744 457 557 767 1299 957 847 1123 1079 591 2257 1373 3726 4617 370 1207 2489 1476 3021 1069 320 1537 1295 1173 857 442 1910 856 526 1380 1169 1133 1716 1966 370 390 1361 1706 1535 372 4105 1415 654 905 945 686 1455 1651 1481 1012 526 1550 614 875 559 828 1276 470 1775 1509 1033 1175 459 151 788 2144 1262 411 602 404
2020-07-18 575 1318 1615 1936 804 577 1294 1074 4965 507 1136 1036 1905 820 4596 476 788 455 1299 748 694 692 1249 808 2224 2014 311 3336 1346 511 694 1313 2025 673 1578 389 609 421 1200 484 745 458 558 769 1301 958 850 1126 1080 593 2275 1375 3733 4670 370 1208 2494 1482 3030 1071 320 1537 1297 1179 859 445 1915 857 533 1386 1170 1135 1726 1972 371 391 1364 1714 1537 373 4116 1417 655 906 946 687 1456 1653 1484 1012 527 1554 615 878 560 830 1278 471 1782 1513 1035 1176 460 152 789 2145 1263 411 602 405
2020-07-19 575 1320 1615 1938 805 579 1299 1075 4974 509 1143 1037 1911 821 4622 476 789 456 1300 753 696 694 1250 811 2226 2018 311 3338 1347 512 696 1315 2027 675 1580 391 613 423 1201 485 745 459 560 770 1302 960 853 1128 1081 596 2292 1376 3740 4723 371 1209 2498 1487 3040 1072 320 1538 1299 1185 861 447 1921 859 540 1392 1171 1137 1736 1979 372 392 1367 1722 1539 374 4128 1419 657 908 946 689 1457 1655 1488 1012 528 1558 616 880 560 832 1280 473 1790 1518 1036 1176 461 152 790 2146 1265 412 603 405
2020-07-20 576 1323 1615 1941 806 581 1302 1077 4984 511 1151 1039 1917 821 4647 476 790 457 1302 758 697 697 1251 814 2229 2023 311 3340 1348 512 697 1318 2032 677 1581 393 617 425 1203 486 746 460 561 771 1304 961 857 1131 1081 598 2310 1377 3747 4777 372 1210 2502 1493 3049 1074 321 1538 1301 1190 862 450 1927 861 547 1399 1172 1138 1745 1986 373 392 1371 1731 1541 375 4139 1421 658 909 946 691 1458 1656 1491 1012 529 1562 618 883 561 834 1282 474 1797 1522 1038 1179 463 153 791 2148 1266 413 604 406
2020-07-21 577 1326 1615 1944 808 583 1303 1078 4994 513 1158 1040 1923 822 4673 476 791 458 1304 763 699 699 1252 816 2230 2027 312 3342 1350 513 699 1321 2038 679 1582 394 622 427 1204 487 747 462 562 772 1305 963 860 1133 1082 601 2327 1379 3755 4830 372 1210 2506 1498 3059 1076 321 1539 1303 1196 864 453 1932 862 554 1405 1173 1140 1755 1992 374 393 1374 1739 1543 376 4151 1423 659 911 946 693 1460 1658 1494 1013 530 1566 619 885 562 836 1284 475 1805 1527 1039 1180 464 153 792 2149 1267 413 605 406

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-21

DateAshfieldAshfordBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrighton and HoveBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEnfieldFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGraveshamHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowKetteringKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorthamptonNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeSalfordSandwellSeftonSevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkStockportStoke-on-TrentSuttonSwaleTamesideTelford and WrekinThanetThurrockTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWealdenWest LindseyWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWokinghamWorthing
2020-07-14 572 1306 1615 1925 798 570 1284 1068 4922 498 1106 1031 1880 818 4490 476 783 451 1292 728 688 681 1244 797 2211 1995 309 3329 1340 507 685 1301 2008 666 1570 383 590 413 1194 480 734 453 553 763 1295 952 835 1116 1076 583 2204 1369 3702 4460 368 1204 2477 1459 2992 1064 318 1532 1289 1155 852 434 1893 851 504 1360 1166 1127 1685 1945 367 388 1351 1679 1529 369 4070 1409 650 901 937 680 1451 1645 1472 1011 523 1538 610 868 556 821 1270 467 1749 1494 1029 1169 455 150 785 2139 1258 409 599 403
2020-07-15 572 1307 1616 1926 799 571 1285 1069 4925 500 1111 1032 1884 818 4503 476 783 451 1293 731 689 682 1245 800 2213 1999 309 3330 1341 507 688 1302 2011 667 1571 384 593 415 1195 480 734 453 554 764 1296 953 837 1117 1077 584 2222 1370 3704 4505 368 1204 2480 1464 3001 1065 318 1532 1290 1160 854 436 1897 852 509 1369 1167 1128 1690 1947 367 388 1355 1680 1530 370 4079 1410 650 902 939 681 1452 1645 1475 1011 523 1540 611 870 557 821 1271 468 1752 1496 1029 1170 456 150 786 2140 1259 409 600 403
2020-07-16 573 1309 1617 1928 801 571 1286 1070 4931 502 1121 1033 1889 818 4522 477 783 452 1293 736 691 683 1246 802 2215 2004 310 3333 1342 508 690 1304 2013 669 1572 386 596 417 1195 481 735 455 555 765 1297 954 840 1119 1078 587 2240 1371 3707 4553 369 1205 2484 1469 3011 1067 318 1534 1291 1167 856 439 1901 854 515 1377 1168 1130 1700 1951 368 389 1358 1682 1532 370 4089 1412 651 902 941 683 1453 1646 1478 1012 524 1543 611 873 557 823 1273 469 1756 1498 1030 1171 457 150 787 2142 1260 409 601 403
2020-07-17 574 1312 1618 1930 802 572 1287 1071 4941 504 1129 1034 1894 818 4546 478 784 453 1295 741 692 685 1247 806 2216 2008 311 3335 1344 509 692 1306 2015 671 1574 387 599 421 1196 482 737 456 556 766 1297 955 842 1122 1079 590 2258 1372 3713 4610 370 1206 2487 1474 3020 1069 318 1535 1293 1173 857 441 1905 856 520 1385 1168 1132 1710 1957 369 390 1362 1684 1534 371 4099 1414 652 903 943 684 1454 1647 1482 1012 524 1545 612 875 558 824 1274 471 1761 1500 1030 1174 459 151 788 2143 1261 410 602 404
2020-07-18 575 1314 1619 1932 804 573 1289 1072 4950 506 1137 1035 1900 819 4569 478 785 454 1296 746 693 687 1248 809 2217 2013 311 3336 1345 509 693 1307 2016 673 1574 389 601 423 1197 482 738 457 557 767 1298 956 845 1124 1081 592 2276 1372 3717 4658 370 1206 2491 1481 3030 1071 318 1535 1295 1179 859 443 1910 857 526 1391 1169 1134 1720 1962 370 391 1365 1686 1536 372 4109 1415 652 904 944 686 1455 1648 1485 1013 525 1548 613 877 559 825 1276 472 1766 1503 1031 1175 460 151 789 2145 1263 410 603 404
2020-07-19 576 1316 1621 1934 805 574 1292 1073 4959 508 1144 1037 1905 819 4592 479 786 455 1298 751 695 690 1249 812 2219 2017 312 3337 1347 510 695 1309 2019 674 1576 390 603 425 1198 483 739 458 559 768 1299 957 848 1126 1082 595 2293 1373 3721 4703 371 1207 2495 1486 3039 1072 318 1536 1297 1185 860 446 1914 859 531 1397 1170 1136 1729 1967 371 391 1368 1687 1538 373 4120 1417 653 905 945 688 1456 1650 1489 1013 526 1550 614 880 560 825 1277 473 1774 1505 1031 1176 461 152 790 2146 1264 410 604 404
2020-07-20 576 1319 1623 1936 807 575 1294 1074 4969 510 1153 1038 1915 820 4615 481 786 455 1299 756 696 694 1250 815 2222 2022 312 3339 1348 511 697 1311 2023 676 1578 392 606 427 1199 484 741 459 560 770 1300 958 852 1129 1083 598 2311 1375 3729 4762 372 1207 2499 1491 3049 1073 318 1536 1299 1192 862 448 1919 861 537 1403 1171 1138 1739 1975 372 392 1372 1690 1540 374 4130 1419 654 906 946 690 1458 1651 1493 1014 526 1553 615 883 561 826 1278 475 1781 1508 1032 1178 462 152 791 2147 1265 411 604 405
2020-07-21 577 1321 1624 1939 809 576 1295 1075 4978 512 1159 1039 1920 820 4639 483 787 456 1301 762 698 698 1251 818 2224 2027 313 3340 1350 511 699 1313 2028 678 1579 394 608 429 1200 485 743 461 561 771 1301 960 854 1131 1084 601 2330 1377 3734 4815 372 1208 2504 1496 3058 1075 319 1538 1300 1198 863 451 1923 862 544 1411 1172 1139 1749 1981 373 393 1375 1692 1542 375 4141 1421 655 907 947 692 1459 1652 1497 1015 527 1556 616 885 561 828 1279 476 1788 1511 1033 1179 464 152 793 2149 1267 411 606 405

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.