COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-07-19

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-07-19

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1004-1804-0304-0204-2104-0406-1005-0304-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1204-2204-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-19 --03-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0307-0704-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1104-1303-2503-2504-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2903-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0104-0105-1104-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-1004-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1903-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1503-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0804-0505-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-1703-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0804-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 27 21 6 34 8 20 8 59 11 9 52 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 10 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 13 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 48 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 9 20 16 15 16 18 23 43 16 28 22 39 32 75 75 6 37 8 4 54 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 11 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 43 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 15 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 8 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 27 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 11 8 10 -4 27 4 81 30 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 24 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 31 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -22 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 86 16 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 82 9 12 -2 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -11 15 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 8 34 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 8 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 26 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 14 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 7 50 -10 6 3 44 13 19 -5 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 13 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 30 38 29 22 22 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 25 41 23 17 42 28 86 52 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 41 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 42 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 106 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 112 33 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 88 33 20 19 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 54 26 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 27 56 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 29 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 47 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 43 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 36 27 31 26 35 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 25 64 10 28 47 61 29 43 24 30 40 17 35 49 21 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 31 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 44 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 187 351 444 325 572 1325 786 261 723 1631 1958 598 817 943 572 341 1299 1079 5031 505 1204 1034 347 1913 488 823 384 4637 483 432 1757 283 786 1303 408 1527 529 287 431 462 1304 759 327 711 315 698 699 316 1253 805 735 428 698 2225 2007 506 277 292 673 712 343 318 902 203 3338 1359 249 442 1866 509 606 696 278 1309 257 2015 610 673 1313 1577 194 217 493 414 242 390 1648 605 872 432 435 174 422 1203 483 337 410 242 299 481 738 165 457 1285 377 539 226 567 340 964 553 695 302 762 385 774 386 710 1297 269 598 130 360 965 864 480 411 1126 543 515 1084 888 351 700 421 563 566 587 849 1559 745 2292 1005 1375 884 3725 4636 372 1213 399 263 2484 1505 644 133 228 3046 348 1069 161 125 948 208 325 602 963 864 327 456 321 1543 783 1303 119 594 212 357 220 729 219 905 920 338 323 1202 1583 295 1196 861 467 1927 856 522 1385 666 505 1177 784 1140 705 394 771 197 538 268 1763 295 291 186 1986 371 328 389 596 97 135 1377 1731 561 393 1544 319 371 4119 1410 652 912 444 203 365 405 750 97 709 404 591 327 275 606 518 334 386 949 941 697 1458 337 525 1197 572 381 318 1663 970 1483 527 259 1777 433 1014 527 769 1547 346 321 213 621 630 495 255 881 358 565 347 275 834 1289 468 280 470 1777 1508 1039 1182 1332 433 556 463 460 335 400 480 72 725 155 524 482 800 2148 1266 476 411 2046 356 601 1400 402 404 418 436 632 413 912
Last daily increment 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 1 9 0 0 12 0 0 0 26 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 5 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 8 0 0 0 5 13 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 0 10 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 8 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 9 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 0 5 3 2 1 20 6 1 8 13 32 0 9 2 5 3 17 10 128 7 103 4 0 37 1 6 3 176 20 1 4 3 5 6 1 4 3 1 2 12 18 36 2 3 3 11 20 3 11 10 4 2 6 14 18 2 5 3 1 3 1 9 3 1 9 22 1 9 4 5 2 11 6 10 2 11 4 8 3 7 1 4 2 3 2 7 3 15 2 19 3 16 2 10 2 1 2 2 1 2 5 1 6 5 1 2 1 16 0 3 2 3 1 1 5 9 2 1 5 0 4 2 1 15 31 2 4 11 7 1 8 9 29 0 0 6 3 9 0 13 3 106 3 7 0 29 199 4 11 5 7 10 44 10 2 0 56 6 6 3 1 4 1 0 5 8 2 0 4 6 10 3 14 0 3 5 3 2 4 1 4 1 6 4 48 5 1 13 10 31 37 6 20 31 3 3 12 7 13 4 3 0 1 2 1 95 2 5 0 41 4 1 2 2 4 0 27 61 0 0 16 1 3 58 0 5 11 3 2 10 2 4 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 0 3 10 7 1 5 1 4 8 1 21 3 10 0 1 5 3 4 5 15 11 2 0 2 12 8 0 1 14 1 6 1 2 12 21 1 4 2 49 18 13 12 7 1 8 3 6 2 1 3 0 5 3 3 3 7 8 11 1 4 6 3 2 11 2 0 1 2 4 2 1
Days since peak 95 89 81 81 101 96 93 100 113 116 87 113 92 111 66 108 92 111 118 71 66 100 92 107 108 89 106 39 77 90 115 115 111 94 84 114 69 123 95 113 68 88 102 113 102 102 89 112 93 71 94 107 111 75 88 74 77 72 103 93 99 77 91 108 90 88 99 90 114 106 88 110 116 118 92 94 91 67 100 114 87 85 93 95 100 89 89 95 94 88 91 117 111 116 116 93 111 92 82 69 114 47 111 94 91 95 111 69 113 105 112 112 95 90 115 116 90 116 87 95 85 92 115 18 118 97 115 97 91 117 77 12 93 89 126 120 77 102 88 103 87 110 116 115 96 38 97 116 116 88 110 108 83 119 111 111 56 112 118 76 112 114 87 88 114 89 75 114 116 113 81 114 90 92 115 84 116 92 76 88 112 102 102 114 100 90 96 88 68 109 109 69 81 96 96 76 102 111 88 100 102 56 122 89 110 90 96 66 93 81 97 96 105 73 90 102 117 92 88 113 90 114 118 90 87 121 54 118 95 109 91 116 82 81 117 88 116 71 94 84 120 95 92 114 114 95 112 95 95 96 111 109 90 86 100 111 110 104 105 102 105 69 120 103 95 68 98 93 110 97 93 116 99 93 116 114 67 83 116 88 93 118 117 110 117 99 97 92 78 70 102 92 90 89 92 96 124 95 77 95 102 111 96 96 93 95 94 94 112 90 96 89

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-20 to 2020-07-26

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBristolBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEdenEnfieldFyldeGraveshamHaringeyHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKetteringKingston upon HullKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMansfieldMedwayMiddlesbroughNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth WarwickshireNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkStaffordshire MoorlandsStockportStoke-on-TrentSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinTendringThanetThurrockTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWealdenWestminsterWiganWiltshireWirralWolverhampton
2020-07-19 1325 786 723 1631 1958 817 1299 1079 5031 505 1204 1913 823 4637 483 1303 462 1304 759 698 699 1253 805 698 2225 2007 318 3338 1359 442 696 278 1309 2015 673 1577 390 605 432 174 1203 457 567 774 965 864 1126 543 1084 888 351 563 587 1559 2292 1375 3725 4636 1213 263 2484 1505 644 3046 348 1069 963 321 1543 1303 338 1202 1196 861 467 1927 856 522 1385 1177 784 1140 1763 1986 1377 1731 1544 4119 912 365 697 1458 381 1663 1483 769 1547 621 630 881 565 834 1289 1777 1508 1039 1182 1332 556 460 800 2148 1266 2046 1400
2020-07-20 1328 787 724 1632 1963 818 1304 1081 5045 507 1215 1922 824 4664 486 1304 463 1306 764 700 702 1255 807 698 2227 2011 320 3340 1359 443 700 279 1311 2025 675 1580 392 608 435 174 1205 458 569 776 967 869 1128 544 1085 889 355 564 589 1560 2310 1376 3732 4677 1214 264 2487 1511 645 3056 348 1070 964 321 1543 1305 338 1209 1198 863 470 1933 857 528 1391 1179 785 1142 1765 1993 1381 1736 1546 4128 914 366 699 1459 382 1664 1486 770 1549 623 631 884 566 838 1292 1785 1511 1041 1184 1333 557 461 801 2150 1267 2048 1402
2020-07-21 1331 789 725 1632 1968 820 1306 1083 5059 509 1227 1928 824 4691 488 1305 464 1308 770 701 705 1257 809 699 2228 2014 321 3341 1359 445 702 279 1313 2028 676 1581 393 611 437 174 1208 459 570 777 968 873 1130 545 1087 890 358 565 592 1562 2327 1377 3738 4719 1215 264 2490 1518 645 3065 349 1072 964 321 1546 1308 338 1216 1199 864 474 1938 859 533 1397 1180 786 1144 1780 2000 1384 1741 1548 4138 915 368 701 1461 383 1667 1488 772 1551 624 631 886 567 841 1294 1793 1514 1042 1186 1334 557 463 802 2151 1269 2050 1403
2020-07-22 1334 790 725 1634 1973 822 1310 1084 5072 510 1237 1932 825 4717 490 1307 466 1310 775 703 708 1259 812 699 2230 2018 323 3343 1359 446 705 280 1315 2031 677 1583 395 614 440 174 1209 461 572 779 970 877 1132 546 1088 890 362 566 594 1563 2344 1378 3745 4760 1216 265 2493 1524 646 3075 349 1073 965 321 1548 1310 338 1222 1201 866 477 1944 860 539 1403 1182 787 1147 1793 2006 1387 1747 1551 4147 917 369 702 1462 385 1670 1491 774 1553 626 632 888 568 844 1296 1801 1517 1044 1188 1335 558 464 804 2153 1270 2051 1404
2020-07-23 1337 791 726 1634 1978 823 1311 1086 5084 512 1249 1936 826 4743 493 1308 467 1312 780 705 711 1261 814 700 2233 2022 324 3344 1359 447 708 281 1317 2032 679 1583 396 617 443 174 1210 462 574 780 971 882 1134 547 1089 891 366 567 596 1564 2362 1379 3751 4802 1217 266 2496 1530 647 3084 350 1074 965 321 1551 1312 338 1229 1202 867 481 1949 861 545 1409 1184 788 1149 1811 2013 1391 1752 1553 4156 918 371 704 1463 386 1672 1493 775 1555 627 632 891 569 848 1299 1809 1519 1045 1191 1336 559 465 805 2155 1272 2053 1406
2020-07-24 1340 793 727 1634 1982 825 1315 1088 5097 514 1260 1939 827 4769 495 1309 468 1314 786 706 713 1263 816 700 2234 2026 326 3346 1359 448 709 281 1319 2033 680 1585 398 620 445 174 1210 463 575 782 973 886 1136 548 1091 892 369 568 598 1565 2379 1380 3758 4844 1219 266 2498 1536 648 3094 350 1076 966 321 1551 1314 338 1236 1204 869 484 1954 862 551 1415 1185 789 1151 1822 2020 1394 1757 1555 4165 920 372 706 1465 387 1675 1496 777 1557 629 633 893 570 851 1301 1816 1522 1047 1194 1337 559 466 806 2156 1273 2055 1407
2020-07-25 1343 794 728 1634 1987 826 1317 1089 5110 516 1271 1944 827 4795 498 1310 469 1316 791 708 716 1265 818 701 2234 2029 327 3347 1359 449 710 282 1321 2033 682 1585 399 622 448 174 1213 465 577 783 974 890 1138 549 1092 893 373 568 601 1566 2396 1381 3764 4887 1220 267 2501 1543 648 3103 351 1077 967 321 1551 1316 338 1243 1205 870 487 1959 864 556 1421 1187 790 1153 1836 2027 1397 1763 1557 4175 921 374 708 1466 388 1678 1498 778 1559 630 633 895 571 854 1303 1824 1525 1048 1195 1338 560 468 807 2158 1274 2057 1409
2020-07-26 1346 795 729 1635 1992 828 1319 1091 5122 517 1283 1951 828 4822 500 1311 471 1318 796 710 719 1267 820 701 2235 2033 329 3349 1359 450 711 282 1323 2033 683 1585 401 625 450 176 1213 466 579 784 976 894 1140 550 1093 893 376 569 603 1567 2414 1382 3771 4930 1221 267 2504 1549 649 3113 352 1078 967 321 1551 1319 338 1249 1207 872 491 1964 865 562 1428 1188 791 1155 1845 2034 1400 1768 1560 4184 923 375 710 1467 390 1679 1501 780 1561 632 634 898 571 857 1306 1832 1527 1050 1195 1339 561 469 808 2159 1276 2058 1410

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-20 to 2020-07-26

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBristolBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEdenEnfieldFyldeGraveshamHaringeyHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKetteringKingston upon HullKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMansfieldMedwayMiddlesbroughNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth WarwickshireNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkStaffordshire MoorlandsStockportStoke-on-TrentSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinTendringThanetThurrockTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWealdenWestminsterWiganWiltshireWirralWolverhampton
2020-07-19 1325 786 723 1631 1958 817 1299 1079 5031 505 1204 1913 823 4637 483 1303 462 1304 759 698 699 1253 805 698 2225 2007 318 3338 1359 442 696 278 1309 2015 673 1577 390 605 432 174 1203 457 567 774 965 864 1126 543 1084 888 351 563 587 1559 2292 1375 3725 4636 1213 263 2484 1505 644 3046 348 1069 963 321 1543 1303 338 1202 1196 861 467 1927 856 522 1385 1177 784 1140 1763 1986 1377 1731 1544 4119 912 365 697 1458 381 1663 1483 769 1547 621 630 881 565 834 1289 1777 1508 1039 1182 1332 556 460 800 2148 1266 2046 1400
2020-07-20 1326 787 723 1633 1960 818 1301 1080 5041 506 1216 1916 824 4660 485 1304 463 1306 764 700 702 1254 806 698 2226 2009 319 3339 1360 442 697 278 1310 2018 674 1578 391 606 434 175 1204 458 569 775 966 870 1127 543 1085 888 353 564 588 1560 2307 1376 3733 4674 1214 263 2486 1510 644 3055 348 1069 963 321 1544 1306 338 1207 1196 862 470 1929 857 526 1389 1178 785 1142 1769 1995 1380 1737 1546 4126 914 365 698 1460 381 1664 1485 770 1549 623 631 883 566 835 1290 1784 1510 1040 1184 1333 556 461 801 2150 1267 2047 1401
2020-07-21 1328 788 724 1634 1963 819 1303 1081 5054 508 1230 1920 824 4687 491 1305 464 1307 770 701 706 1256 808 699 2227 2013 320 3340 1362 442 700 278 1313 2022 675 1579 393 609 436 178 1206 459 571 777 969 874 1129 544 1086 889 355 565 591 1561 2324 1378 3740 4714 1215 263 2488 1517 645 3065 349 1071 964 322 1546 1308 339 1215 1197 864 474 1931 858 531 1396 1179 786 1144 1783 2002 1383 1745 1549 4134 916 366 700 1461 382 1665 1487 771 1550 624 631 886 566 836 1291 1795 1514 1042 1186 1334 557 462 802 2151 1268 2048 1402
2020-07-22 1331 789 726 1637 1965 821 1306 1083 5068 509 1249 1925 825 4713 494 1306 465 1309 776 703 709 1258 811 699 2230 2017 322 3342 1365 442 702 279 1315 2025 677 1581 394 613 438 181 1207 460 573 778 971 883 1131 545 1088 890 357 566 594 1562 2342 1379 3746 4757 1216 264 2490 1524 646 3075 349 1072 965 323 1547 1311 339 1223 1198 865 478 1935 859 535 1402 1180 787 1146 1796 2012 1387 1753 1551 4143 918 368 702 1462 382 1668 1489 773 1553 626 632 888 568 837 1294 1803 1517 1045 1188 1335 558 464 803 2153 1270 2049 1403
2020-07-23 1333 790 727 1639 1967 823 1308 1084 5082 511 1267 1929 826 4739 498 1308 466 1311 782 705 711 1260 813 699 2234 2020 323 3345 1367 443 705 279 1317 2027 678 1581 396 616 440 185 1209 462 574 779 972 889 1133 546 1089 891 360 566 596 1563 2360 1380 3752 4798 1218 264 2492 1531 647 3085 349 1073 966 324 1549 1313 340 1231 1199 867 482 1938 861 540 1410 1182 788 1148 1814 2018 1391 1762 1553 4151 920 370 704 1463 382 1670 1492 775 1555 628 633 891 569 838 1296 1810 1521 1046 1190 1335 559 465 805 2154 1271 2050 1404
2020-07-24 1336 792 728 1640 1970 824 1311 1085 5096 512 1281 1934 826 4765 501 1309 468 1313 788 707 714 1262 815 699 2235 2024 324 3346 1369 443 707 279 1319 2029 679 1583 397 619 444 188 1210 463 576 781 973 894 1135 547 1090 892 363 567 599 1564 2378 1381 3759 4841 1219 264 2494 1537 648 3094 350 1074 966 325 1550 1315 340 1239 1201 869 486 1942 862 546 1418 1183 789 1150 1825 2023 1396 1769 1556 4160 921 371 706 1464 383 1672 1495 776 1556 629 633 893 569 840 1298 1817 1524 1048 1193 1336 560 466 806 2156 1272 2050 1405
2020-07-25 1338 793 728 1641 1972 826 1313 1086 5110 514 1295 1939 827 4791 503 1310 469 1315 794 708 716 1264 818 700 2236 2028 326 3348 1372 443 709 280 1321 2030 681 1584 399 622 447 191 1212 464 578 782 975 898 1137 548 1092 893 365 568 602 1565 2396 1382 3765 4883 1220 265 2496 1545 649 3104 350 1076 967 325 1551 1317 341 1246 1202 870 490 1946 863 552 1425 1185 790 1152 1835 2028 1399 1775 1558 4168 923 372 709 1465 383 1674 1497 778 1559 631 634 895 570 841 1299 1825 1528 1049 1194 1337 560 467 807 2157 1274 2051 1406
2020-07-26 1341 794 729 1644 1975 828 1316 1088 5124 515 1310 1944 828 4818 505 1311 470 1317 800 710 718 1266 820 700 2237 2031 327 3349 1374 444 711 280 1323 2032 682 1584 400 625 449 194 1213 465 580 783 976 903 1139 548 1093 894 368 569 605 1566 2411 1383 3771 4918 1222 265 2499 1551 649 3114 351 1077 967 325 1552 1319 341 1254 1203 872 494 1951 864 558 1433 1186 791 1154 1844 2033 1403 1780 1561 4177 924 373 711 1466 384 1676 1499 780 1560 633 635 897 571 842 1300 1835 1531 1050 1195 1338 561 469 809 2158 1275 2052 1406

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.