COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-28 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-07-28

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-07-28

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-09 --04-1004-1804-0304-0204-2104-0405-0305-0304-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-12 --04-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2105-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1604-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1404-1303-2503-2504-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2903-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0104-0105-1104-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-0804-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1903-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1403-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0804-0505-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-2103-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0804-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 21 6 34 8 20 8 55 11 9 51 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 13 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 45 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 16 18 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 75 6 37 8 4 55 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 11 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 15 28 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 18 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 11 8 10 -4 27 4 43 30 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 30 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 15 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 85 9 12 -2 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -11 15 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 8 34 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 6 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -72 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 26 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 13 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 7 50 -10 6 3 44 13 23 -5 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 13 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 32 38 29 22 21 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 25 41 23 17 42 27 49 52 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 41 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 106 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 32 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 91 33 20 19 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 54 26 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 27 56 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 27 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 46 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 43 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 35 27 31 26 35 24 24 41 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 25 64 10 28 47 61 30 47 24 30 41 17 35 49 21 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 31 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 43 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 190 360 451 329 575 1349 790 266 748 1663 1979 600 827 949 591 348 1341 1102 5219 514 1373 1046 353 1975 494 834 387 4987 505 437 1796 285 811 1335 410 1534 535 293 436 483 1341 854 339 719 327 713 720 323 1270 823 751 436 706 2237 2037 511 283 295 678 730 349 331 926 211 3356 1411 252 459 1885 529 609 718 280 1319 259 2028 614 685 1334 1610 194 222 503 416 251 397 1654 619 884 444 442 193 430 1214 487 339 414 248 302 492 751 166 461 1288 382 540 230 589 342 987 559 699 303 784 393 793 388 724 1315 270 614 134 367 988 876 483 427 1146 551 518 1110 901 382 711 423 582 583 604 851 1573 751 2414 1009 1404 890 3808 4904 377 1237 407 266 2541 1556 662 139 231 3231 354 1092 178 130 957 210 329 609 970 876 330 461 332 1545 793 1327 122 600 216 363 223 736 221 912 927 344 331 1267 1590 304 1217 880 485 2101 900 568 1438 672 509 1211 803 1160 706 393 775 202 549 270 1854 297 298 188 2030 374 334 394 597 100 135 1445 1856 561 394 1566 321 377 4257 1433 661 928 446 210 373 410 759 98 712 412 604 330 279 612 521 338 394 954 962 703 1487 340 537 1204 581 376 322 1724 980 1493 531 267 1782 439 1031 538 841 1597 347 329 213 629 650 500 258 904 365 573 359 281 868 1412 484 285 480 1841 1539 1050 1203 1341 443 570 470 470 341 401 493 72 748 155 532 492 815 2177 1288 478 419 2062 359 605 1454 412 412 432 442 636 414 923
Last daily increment 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 17 0 15 0 0 6 0 0 0 29 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 16 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 7 2 3 1 24 13 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 20 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 7 2 0 28 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 6 0 0 2 0 1 9 4 0 3 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 7 0 3 0 0 1 3 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 3 11 1 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
Last week 2 6 6 1 1 13 4 2 18 17 12 1 3 4 17 4 24 14 121 3 98 6 3 36 2 8 1 224 10 3 19 0 15 18 0 3 3 4 3 15 28 63 4 9 7 5 14 2 6 10 8 5 5 8 19 5 2 1 1 6 2 4 14 4 10 39 2 10 10 13 0 10 1 6 0 8 1 6 16 14 0 2 7 2 7 5 5 8 7 6 1 8 5 6 4 1 2 3 1 7 4 0 2 1 2 1 2 14 1 14 2 1 1 10 5 8 2 8 10 0 8 2 3 10 1 3 8 10 6 1 13 2 7 4 2 11 6 7 0 8 3 74 7 14 5 57 153 1 14 7 2 33 26 7 2 2 131 1 11 10 3 3 0 3 5 2 8 0 3 8 0 9 18 1 3 3 3 0 5 1 4 2 4 4 39 3 1 16 12 3 110 18 21 32 4 1 25 12 12 1 0 2 1 6 2 49 2 2 0 23 2 3 2 1 2 0 47 72 0 0 11 1 4 78 18 5 10 1 5 3 3 6 0 3 3 8 1 1 4 2 4 4 2 11 3 13 1 6 1 7 3 4 49 7 7 4 6 2 5 8 4 51 30 1 5 0 5 7 3 3 13 4 2 4 3 16 75 6 1 5 35 17 8 12 3 5 7 5 7 0 0 8 0 14 0 3 5 12 24 7 1 5 5 1 2 29 3 2 11 4 2 1 6
Days since peak 104 98 90 90 110 103 102 109 122 125 96 122 101 120 75 117 101 120 127 80 109 101 116 117 98 115 86 86 99 124 124 120 103 93 123 78 132 104 122 77 111 122 111 111 98 121 102 80 103 116 120 84 98 83 86 81 112 102 108 86 100 117 99 97 108 99 123 115 97 119 125 127 101 103 100 76 109 123 96 94 102 104 109 98 98 104 103 97 100 96 126 120 125 125 102 120 101 91 78 123 56 120 103 100 104 120 78 122 114 121 121 104 99 124 125 99 125 96 104 94 101 124 27 127 106 124 106 100 126 86 85 103 98 135 129 86 111 97 112 96 119 125 124 105 44 106 125 125 97 119 117 92 128 120 120 65 121 127 85 121 123 96 97 123 98 84 123 125 122 90 123 99 101 124 93 125 101 85 97 121 111 111 123 109 99 105 97 77 118 118 78 90 105 105 85 111 120 97 111 111 65 131 98 119 99 105 75 102 90 106 105 114 82 99 111 126 101 97 122 99 123 127 99 96 130 63 127 104 118 100 125 91 90 126 97 125 80 103 93 129 104 101 123 123 105 121 104 104 105 120 118 99 95 109 120 119 113 114 111 114 78 129 112 104 77 107 98 119 106 102 125 108 102 125 123 76 92 125 97 102 127 126 119 126 108 106 101 87 79 111 101 99 98 101 105 133 104 86 104 111 120 105 105 102 104 103 103 121 99 105 98

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-29 to 2020-08-04

DateAllerdaleAmber ValleyAshfordBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrentBrighton and HoveBristolBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCamdenCannock ChaseCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterColchesterCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyCroydonDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverDudleyEalingEast HampshireEast LindseyEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEdenEnfieldFenlandGraveshamGreenwichHammersmith and FulhamHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHaveringHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHyndburnIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMedwayMeltonMilton KeynesNewark and SherwoodNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSolihullSouth GloucestershireSouth LakelandSouthamptonSouthwarkSt AlbansStaffordStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStroudSuttonSwindonTamesideTendringThanetTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWatfordWealdenWest BerkshireWest LancashireWestminsterWiganWiltshireWolverhamptonWychavonYork
2020-07-28 360 451 1349 748 1663 1979 591 1341 1102 5219 1373 1046 1975 834 4987 505 1796 811 1335 483 1341 854 719 327 720 1270 823 751 2237 2037 730 926 3356 1411 459 1885 529 718 1319 2028 685 1334 1610 503 251 619 884 444 193 1214 492 589 987 784 793 724 1315 614 988 427 1146 551 1110 382 582 583 604 1573 2414 1009 1404 3808 4904 1237 407 2541 1556 662 3231 1092 178 876 332 793 1327 1267 1217 880 2101 900 568 1438 1211 803 1160 549 1854 2030 1445 1856 1566 4257 1433 928 759 604 962 1487 537 581 1724 980 1493 267 1031 841 1597 650 904 868 1412 484 1841 1539 1050 1203 570 470 493 748 815 2177 1288 1454 432 923
2020-07-29 361 451 1352 752 1668 1982 592 1343 1105 5240 1395 1047 1983 835 5020 508 1798 813 1337 485 1344 868 719 328 723 1272 825 752 2241 2040 731 927 3358 1415 460 1886 531 723 1320 2036 686 1337 1614 504 252 623 885 446 195 1215 493 591 987 784 795 725 1317 615 990 428 1148 552 1112 383 583 584 606 1574 2428 1009 1406 3817 4932 1239 408 2545 1562 663 3250 1094 179 877 333 794 1330 1274 1219 882 2118 903 573 1444 1214 805 1162 550 1865 2031 1451 1866 1569 4269 1435 930 759 605 963 1489 537 582 1730 981 1496 267 1032 846 1601 651 906 871 1428 485 1848 1542 1052 1206 571 471 493 749 816 2180 1290 1462 433 924
2020-07-30 362 451 1354 755 1671 1984 594 1345 1107 5261 1417 1048 1988 836 5053 510 1801 815 1339 487 1347 883 720 329 725 1273 826 753 2242 2043 732 929 3360 1419 462 1887 532 725 1321 2039 687 1340 1615 504 252 626 885 448 196 1217 494 594 987 785 797 726 1318 616 992 429 1149 552 1114 385 585 585 607 1576 2441 1009 1408 3825 4960 1241 408 2549 1568 665 3268 1095 180 878 334 795 1332 1281 1221 884 2135 906 578 1449 1216 806 1164 550 1876 2031 1456 1877 1571 4280 1436 932 760 606 965 1491 537 582 1736 981 1499 268 1034 851 1604 653 908 875 1441 487 1856 1546 1053 1208 572 472 493 751 818 2182 1292 1469 433 925
2020-07-31 362 451 1357 759 1673 1987 596 1353 1109 5282 1440 1049 1993 837 5085 513 1803 816 1342 489 1350 898 720 330 728 1275 828 754 2243 2046 733 930 3361 1423 463 1888 533 727 1322 2043 688 1343 1618 505 253 629 886 450 198 1218 495 596 987 788 798 727 1320 617 994 430 1151 553 1116 386 586 586 609 1577 2455 1010 1410 3833 4987 1243 409 2553 1575 666 3287 1097 181 879 335 795 1334 1288 1223 885 2152 909 583 1455 1219 807 1166 551 1887 2032 1462 1888 1574 4292 1438 934 760 607 966 1493 537 583 1741 982 1502 268 1035 856 1607 654 911 880 1451 488 1863 1549 1054 1213 573 473 493 752 819 2184 1294 1477 434 925
2020-08-01 363 451 1360 762 1677 1990 597 1354 1111 5303 1465 1050 1996 838 5116 516 1806 818 1344 491 1352 913 722 331 730 1277 829 755 2243 2048 734 932 3363 1427 464 1889 535 728 1324 2046 689 1346 1619 506 253 632 887 452 199 1219 496 598 987 789 800 728 1321 618 996 431 1153 554 1118 387 588 587 611 1579 2468 1011 1412 3840 5014 1245 410 2556 1581 668 3305 1098 183 880 336 796 1337 1295 1224 887 2168 911 588 1461 1222 809 1168 552 1898 2033 1467 1898 1576 4304 1439 935 761 608 968 1495 537 584 1747 983 1505 268 1036 860 1610 656 913 881 1459 489 1870 1552 1056 1213 574 474 493 754 821 2187 1295 1484 435 926
2020-08-02 364 451 1362 765 1678 1993 599 1355 1113 5324 1489 1051 2003 839 5148 519 1808 820 1346 492 1355 929 724 331 733 1278 831 756 2245 2051 735 933 3365 1430 466 1890 536 728 1325 2051 690 1349 1620 506 254 635 888 454 201 1220 497 600 987 790 802 729 1322 619 998 432 1154 555 1120 389 589 588 613 1580 2482 1011 1414 3847 5042 1247 410 2560 1587 669 3323 1100 184 880 337 797 1339 1302 1226 889 2185 914 593 1466 1224 810 1170 552 1909 2033 1472 1909 1579 4315 1441 937 762 608 969 1497 537 584 1753 984 1508 268 1037 864 1614 657 915 881 1469 491 1877 1556 1057 1214 575 475 493 755 822 2189 1297 1490 435 927
2020-08-03 365 451 1365 769 1682 1995 601 1363 1115 5345 1514 1052 2011 840 5179 521 1810 821 1348 494 1358 945 725 332 735 1280 832 757 2248 2054 736 934 3367 1434 467 1891 537 731 1326 2054 691 1352 1623 507 255 638 888 456 202 1221 498 603 987 792 804 730 1324 620 1001 433 1156 555 1122 390 590 588 614 1581 2495 1011 1416 3855 5069 1249 411 2564 1594 671 3341 1101 185 881 337 797 1341 1309 1228 891 2202 917 598 1472 1227 812 1172 553 1920 2034 1478 1919 1581 4326 1442 939 762 609 971 1499 537 585 1758 984 1511 269 1039 869 1617 659 917 884 1482 492 1885 1559 1059 1217 576 477 493 756 824 2191 1299 1497 436 928
2020-08-04 365 451 1368 772 1684 1998 602 1364 1117 5366 1540 1053 2016 841 5211 524 1813 823 1350 496 1360 961 725 333 737 1282 834 758 2248 2057 737 936 3368 1438 468 1892 539 732 1327 2054 692 1355 1626 507 255 641 889 458 203 1222 499 605 987 792 806 731 1325 620 1003 434 1158 556 1124 391 592 589 616 1583 2508 1012 1418 3862 5096 1251 412 2567 1600 672 3360 1103 186 882 338 798 1344 1316 1230 892 2218 919 603 1478 1229 813 1174 553 1931 2034 1483 1930 1583 4338 1444 941 763 610 972 1501 537 585 1764 985 1514 269 1040 873 1620 660 920 887 1493 493 1892 1562 1060 1218 577 478 493 758 825 2194 1301 1504 437 929

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-29 to 2020-08-04

DateAllerdaleAmber ValleyAshfordBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrentBrighton and HoveBristolBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCamdenCannock ChaseCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterColchesterCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyCroydonDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverDudleyEalingEast HampshireEast LindseyEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEdenEnfieldFenlandGraveshamGreenwichHammersmith and FulhamHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHaveringHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHyndburnIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMedwayMeltonMilton KeynesNewark and SherwoodNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldShropshireSolihullSouth GloucestershireSouth LakelandSouthamptonSouthwarkSt AlbansStaffordStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStroudSuttonSwindonTamesideTendringThanetTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWatfordWealdenWest BerkshireWest LancashireWestminsterWiganWiltshireWolverhamptonWychavonYork
2020-07-28 360 451 1349 748 1663 1979 591 1341 1102 5219 1373 1046 1975 834 4987 505 1796 811 1335 483 1341 854 719 327 720 1270 823 751 2237 2037 730 926 3356 1411 459 1885 529 718 1319 2028 685 1334 1610 503 251 619 884 444 193 1214 492 589 987 784 793 724 1315 614 988 427 1146 551 1110 382 582 583 604 1573 2414 1009 1404 3808 4904 1237 407 2541 1556 662 3231 1092 178 876 332 793 1327 1267 1217 880 2101 900 568 1438 1211 803 1160 549 1854 2030 1445 1856 1566 4257 1433 928 759 604 962 1487 537 581 1724 980 1493 267 1031 841 1597 650 904 868 1412 484 1841 1539 1050 1203 570 470 493 748 815 2177 1288 1454 432 923
2020-07-29 360 451 1351 750 1667 1981 592 1343 1104 5238 1394 1047 1979 835 5018 506 1798 813 1337 484 1343 868 719 327 721 1271 824 752 2238 2039 731 927 3357 1414 460 1886 530 721 1320 2029 686 1335 1613 503 251 620 884 445 194 1214 492 590 988 785 794 725 1315 615 989 428 1147 551 1112 384 583 584 605 1574 2426 1009 1406 3810 4919 1239 407 2543 1561 663 3244 1093 179 876 332 793 1329 1273 1217 881 2111 902 571 1441 1213 804 1162 549 1861 2035 1449 1865 1568 4268 1434 929 759 605 963 1489 537 581 1729 980 1494 267 1032 845 1600 651 905 870 1420 485 1847 1542 1051 1204 571 471 494 750 816 2178 1289 1456 432 923
2020-07-30 361 452 1354 752 1670 1984 593 1346 1105 5258 1421 1048 1985 835 5052 508 1801 814 1339 487 1345 881 720 328 722 1273 826 752 2240 2042 732 929 3359 1418 461 1886 530 723 1321 2030 687 1337 1615 504 252 621 885 446 196 1215 494 593 990 786 796 726 1316 616 991 429 1149 552 1114 387 584 585 607 1576 2440 1009 1409 3812 4948 1241 408 2546 1566 664 3259 1093 180 877 333 794 1332 1280 1218 882 2127 905 575 1447 1217 806 1164 550 1873 2039 1455 1878 1570 4280 1435 931 759 605 965 1491 538 581 1738 981 1495 268 1033 850 1604 652 907 872 1430 486 1852 1545 1053 1206 572 472 494 752 817 2181 1291 1459 433 924
2020-07-31 361 453 1357 754 1671 1987 595 1352 1107 5279 1447 1049 1990 836 5086 511 1803 816 1341 490 1347 896 720 329 724 1274 828 753 2240 2044 734 931 3361 1422 462 1887 531 725 1321 2031 688 1338 1617 505 253 623 886 448 199 1216 495 596 992 788 798 728 1316 617 993 430 1151 552 1116 390 585 586 609 1577 2452 1010 1411 3815 4975 1242 408 2549 1572 665 3276 1095 181 878 334 794 1334 1287 1218 883 2142 908 579 1454 1220 808 1166 551 1882 2043 1462 1891 1573 4292 1436 932 759 606 968 1492 538 582 1744 981 1496 268 1035 857 1608 653 908 875 1440 487 1857 1548 1054 1210 573 473 496 754 819 2183 1293 1461 435 925
2020-08-01 362 453 1360 756 1675 1990 597 1355 1109 5300 1468 1050 1994 837 5120 512 1806 819 1343 491 1349 910 721 330 726 1276 829 754 2241 2047 735 932 3362 1426 464 1888 532 727 1322 2032 690 1339 1618 506 253 624 887 450 201 1217 496 598 994 789 799 729 1317 619 994 430 1153 553 1118 393 587 587 611 1579 2464 1010 1413 3817 4996 1244 409 2552 1578 666 3293 1096 183 879 334 795 1337 1294 1219 885 2158 911 583 1459 1223 809 1168 551 1893 2046 1467 1900 1575 4304 1437 934 760 607 969 1494 539 582 1749 982 1498 268 1036 863 1611 655 910 876 1448 489 1862 1551 1055 1211 574 473 497 756 820 2185 1295 1463 435 926
2020-08-02 362 454 1362 759 1677 1992 598 1357 1110 5321 1491 1051 2000 838 5154 514 1808 819 1345 493 1352 926 722 331 728 1278 830 754 2242 2049 736 933 3363 1431 466 1889 533 728 1323 2033 691 1341 1620 506 254 625 887 451 203 1218 497 601 995 790 801 730 1318 620 996 431 1154 553 1120 397 588 588 613 1581 2477 1011 1414 3822 5014 1246 410 2555 1584 668 3307 1098 184 879 335 795 1339 1301 1220 886 2174 914 587 1464 1226 811 1170 552 1902 2049 1473 1909 1577 4316 1438 936 760 608 970 1496 540 582 1754 982 1499 269 1037 870 1614 656 912 877 1458 490 1870 1555 1056 1212 575 475 497 757 822 2186 1297 1465 436 927
2020-08-03 363 454 1365 761 1679 1995 600 1362 1111 5342 1519 1052 2007 839 5188 517 1811 821 1347 495 1355 941 722 331 730 1279 831 755 2245 2052 737 935 3365 1435 468 1890 535 730 1324 2035 692 1342 1624 507 254 627 888 454 206 1219 498 603 997 792 803 730 1319 621 998 432 1156 554 1122 400 589 589 615 1583 2490 1011 1416 3828 5040 1248 410 2559 1589 670 3324 1099 185 880 335 796 1342 1307 1222 888 2190 917 591 1470 1229 812 1172 552 1914 2056 1478 1921 1580 4328 1439 937 761 608 971 1498 540 582 1760 983 1500 269 1038 877 1618 658 914 878 1468 491 1877 1558 1058 1215 576 476 498 759 823 2187 1299 1468 436 928
2020-08-04 364 454 1368 763 1681 1998 601 1364 1113 5363 1549 1053 2012 839 5223 520 1813 822 1349 498 1357 957 722 332 733 1281 833 755 2245 2055 739 936 3366 1439 469 1891 536 732 1325 2035 694 1344 1626 507 255 628 889 456 208 1220 499 606 999 792 804 731 1320 623 1001 433 1158 554 1124 403 590 590 617 1584 2503 1012 1419 3834 5061 1250 411 2563 1595 671 3341 1101 187 881 336 796 1344 1314 1223 890 2206 920 595 1475 1233 814 1174 553 1929 2060 1483 1933 1582 4341 1441 939 761 609 973 1500 541 582 1766 984 1502 270 1040 884 1621 659 917 881 1477 492 1884 1561 1059 1217 577 476 499 760 825 2189 1300 1470 437 928

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.